（原标题：经观月度观察|价格温和修复 提振经济仍需政策协同） 李晓丹 实习生 陈菲儿 王欣 彭萧州/文 在经济温和复苏的过程中，结构性分化仍需注意，特别是要维持价格同比回升态势，还需要更多政策发 力。与此同时，信贷"开门红"成色不及往年同期，企业贷款仍然偏弱，提振内需还需要政策的进一步协同。 2026年1月经济数据显示：CPI同比增速由0.8%下降至0.2%，核心CPI环比上涨0.3%；PPI同比从-1.9%收窄至-1.4%；制造业PMI由50.1%下降至 49.3%；新增人民币贷款47100亿元，同比少增额扩大至4200亿元；M2同比增速上升至9.0%，M1-M2剪刀差收窄。 由《经济观察报》发起的"经济观察报月度观察"，每月发布一次。本次共有11家机构参与月度宏观数据预测。 CPI：核心CPI保持温和上涨 CPI公布值（同比）：0.2% 以铜、金、白银为代表的国际金属价格涨势强劲，叠加地缘政治风险加剧推升国际油价，短期输入性因素或继续对PPI形成支撑；不过"反内卷"政 策及内需相关品类价格的修复动能或在边际放缓。全年PPI同比中枢有望抬升，但想要维持趋势性回升态势，仍需更多政策发力，通过补贴等方式 促进内 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Strategy**: 1) In January, inflation data indicated continuous price recovery. The logic of going long on inflation was initially strengthened, and IC was dominant. 2) Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. The US January non - farm employment report was better than expected, but the sustainability of the employment market's recovery needed to be observed. Market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed to July. 3) The US January non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and short - term interest rate cut expectations were postponed again. US stocks were expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. 4) The rebound of PPI in January exceeded market expectations. The bond market was expected to remain strong in the short term, but the odds of chasing the rise were limited. Consider shorting when the upward momentum weakened [1][2][3][20]. - **Commodities**: 1) Steel prices were expected to continue the oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. 2) Coking coal and coke prices were expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term. 3) The USDA February report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on cotton. ICE cotton prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern at a low level. Zheng cotton was expected to oscillate around the Spring Festival. 4) The palm oil market was expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider going long on dips if Malaysia's market remained weak. 5) The fundamentals of lithium carbonate were improving. After the Spring Festival, it was expected to see both supply and demand increase. Consider going long on dips. 6) For lead, consider mid - term long positions. 7) For zinc, adopt a wait - and - see approach before the Spring Festival and use double - buying for unilateral operations. 8) Crude oil prices were expected to remain oscillating and strong in the short term. 9) LPG prices were expected to be strongly oscillating. 10) For asphalt, adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [23][26][31][34][38][40][45][48][50][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro - Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In January, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. The logic of going long on inflation was initially strengthened, and the CSI 500 index was dominant. It was recommended to continue holding the long - stock - index strategy [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro - Strategy (Gold) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the automatic conversion standard for silver hedging positions. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. The US January non - farm employment report was better than expected, and market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed to July. It was recommended to reduce positions for the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro - Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US January non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and short - term interest rate cut expectations were postponed again. US stocks were expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [17][18]. 3.1.4 Macro - Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In January, CPI was lower than expected, and PPI was better than expected. The bond market was expected to remain strong in the short term, but the odds of chasing the rise were limited. Consider shorting when the upward momentum weakened [19][20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese seamless steel pipes. Steel prices were expected to continue the oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to risks with light positions before the Spring Festival [22][23][24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The import coking coal forward market was stable and slightly strong. The spot market was expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures market was expected to oscillate [25][26][27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA February report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on cotton. ICE cotton prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern at a low level. Zheng cotton was expected to oscillate around the Spring Festival. It was recommended to hold light positions to avoid risks during the long holiday [28][30][31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil market was expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider going long on dips if Malaysia's market remained weak. If planning to hold positions for the holiday, it was recommended to use options strategies [33][34][35]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The first part of the national standard for vehicle - use solid - state batteries was planned to be released in July 2026. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate were improving. After the Spring Festival, it was expected to see both supply and demand increase. Consider going long on dips [36][37][38]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - High - grade base metal mineralization was discovered in Queensland. Lead was currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Consider mid - term long positions [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some projects of Chihong Zinc & Germanium had progress. Zinc prices were mainly oscillating. Adopt a wait - and - see approach before the Spring Festival and use double - buying for unilateral operations [42][43][45]. 3.2.8 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's January production decreased by 440,000 barrels per day. Crude oil prices were expected to remain oscillating and strong in the short term [47][48][49]. 3.2.9 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - EIA propane weekly data showed certain changes. LPG prices were expected to be strongly oscillating [50]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The domestic heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased. The asphalt market was expected to be light before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [50][51][52].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3][51] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry saw a 2.12% increase from January 5 to January 9, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.66 percentage points [5][11] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a mild recovery in consumer demand [7][8] - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is at a historically low level, with a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 21X, ranking 23rd among Shenwan's primary industries [6][51] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry index increased by 2.12% during the specified week, with most sub-sectors, except for meat products and dairy, showing positive growth [5][11] - The relative performance against the CSI 300 index was -3.1% over one month, -3.6% over three months, and -28.5% over twelve months [4] Valuation Metrics - As of January 5, 2026, the food and beverage industry's PE ratio is 21X, with sub-sectors like other alcoholic beverages (52X), snacks (38X), and health products (36X) having higher valuations, while white liquor (19X), beer (22X), and pre-processed foods (24X) are lower [6][19] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.8% is the highest since March 2023, driven primarily by rising food prices, which increased by 1.1% [8] - Key food items such as fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant price increases, contributing to the overall CPI rise [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: stable demand industry leaders, companies innovating in new products and channels, and segments with reasonable valuations post-adjustment [9][51] - Specific companies recommended for attention include Guizhou Moutai, Miaokelando, Andeli, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanjing Beer, and Salted Fish [9][51]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a mixed economic outlook [1][9]. CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI is attributed to three main factors: increased prices of vegetables and fruits due to prior rainy weather, the effectiveness of year-end consumption promotion policies leading to higher prices for appliances, mobile phones, and cars, and a significant increase in gold prices, which boosted industrial consumer goods prices [2][3]. - The month-on-month CPI increase was primarily driven by rising prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy, which rose by 0.6%, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months, reflecting sustained consumer demand and effective consumption policies [3]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month increase of 0.2% in December 2025 marks the third consecutive month of growth, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries and rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector [6][7]. - Key industries such as coal mining and processing, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and new energy vehicle production showed price increases, indicating a positive trend in industrial pricing [7]. - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 1.9%, but the decline is narrowing, with macroeconomic policies positively impacting certain industry prices, particularly in the digital economy and green transition sectors [9].

Group 1: Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector saw a decline, with fuel oil down 3.54% and crude oil down 3.55% for the week [2] - The black coal sector experienced significant drops, with coking coal down 10.83%, iron ore down 1.11%, and coke down 6.94% [4] - The supply of coking coal is increasing, with domestic utilization rates at 85.31%, and Mongolian coal imports expected to rise significantly [4][5] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand remains weak, with daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills down 3.10% week-on-week, leading to pressure on steel mill profitability [5] - The Mongolian coal export policy is expected to have a significant impact on the market, with a planned export of 90 million tons by 2026 [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the short-term outlook for coking coal and coke remains weak due to insufficient domestic production cuts and low winter storage replenishment [6] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract LC2601 closing up 6.9% to 96,980 yuan/ton [7] - Domestic lithium carbonate production in November was 95,350 tons, a 3.3% increase month-on-month and a 48.7% increase year-on-year [7] - Strong demand from the battery sector continues to support prices, with production of power and other batteries increasing by 3.3% month-on-month [7][8] Group 4: Inflation and Economic Policy - November CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a mild recovery in prices, while PPI fell 2.2% year-on-year [10] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a shift from "quantity targets" to "quality improvement" in economic policy, focusing on enhancing internal demand and innovation [13][14] - Analysts predict that the fiscal deficit rate will remain high, with expectations for monetary policy to continue supporting the economy through potential rate cuts [14]

Inflation Data Summary - November CPI year-on-year increased by 0.7%, matching expectations, and up from 0.2% in the previous month[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained at 1.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[1] - PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.2%, slightly worse than the expected -2.0%, and unchanged from the previous month[1] Key Drivers of CPI Changes - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, significantly above the seasonal average of -0.5%, primarily driven by a 7.2% increase in fresh vegetable prices due to supply shocks[2] - Non-food items showed resilience, with clothing prices up 0.7% and medical services prices increasing by 0.3% for eight consecutive months[2] - Service prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, negatively impacting core CPI, particularly due to a 5.7% drop in tourism-related prices[2] PPI Insights - PPI has shown a month-on-month increase of 0.1% for two consecutive months, indicating stabilization in industrial product prices[3] - The mining sector saw a significant month-on-month increase of 1.7%, while the raw materials sector experienced a decline of 0.2%[3] - Manufacturing prices in high-weight sectors like photovoltaic equipment and lithium-ion batteries showed reduced year-on-year declines, supporting PPI stability[4] Future Outlook - December inflation readings are expected to remain stable, with CPI likely holding at 0.7% year-on-year if month-on-month changes align with seasonal trends[7] - PPI year-on-year may narrow to -2.0% if the recovery trend continues[7] - The necessity for monetary policy adjustments may increase due to inflation trends and PMI remaining below the growth threshold[7]

Economic Overview - In October, major economic indicators in China fell short of market expectations, with industrial added value growing by 4.9% year-on-year (expected 5.2%) and the service production index increasing by 4.6% [1][6] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative decline of 1.7% year-on-year (expected -0.7%), with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates at 1.5% and 2.7% respectively, both below expectations [1][6] Consumption - Retail sales growth was 2.9% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous month, with significant structural changes observed [7] - Durable goods consumption weakened, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, with automotive sales down 6.6% year-on-year [7] - Service consumption, particularly in the restaurant sector, showed improvement, with restaurant service consumption growth rising to 3.8% [7][8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment declined by 1.7% in October, with significant drops in real estate investment at -14.7% and manufacturing investment at -6.7% [11][14] - Real estate sales saw a notable decrease, with sales area and amount down 18.8% and 24.3% respectively [11] - Infrastructure investment continued to contract, with a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [12] Trade - Exports in October saw a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% in dollar terms, marking the first negative growth since February 2025 [16] - Imports also slowed to a growth rate of 1.0%, indicating weak domestic demand [19] Supply Side - Industrial production growth slowed, with the industrial added value increasing by only 4.9%, below market expectations [22] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating contraction for the first time since April [22] Inflation - CPI turned positive at 0.2%, the highest since February, while core CPI inflation rose to 1.2% [23][24] - PPI showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1% [24] Forward Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased, with multiple incremental policies expected to take effect in November and December to boost infrastructure and manufacturing investment [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September 2025, the year - on - year declines of CPI and PPI narrowed, and inflation continued to recover. CPI was dragged down by food and energy sub - items, but the year - on - year growth of core CPI returned to 1%, and consumer goods prices recovered. PPI year - on - year continued to recover, with a slowdown in month - on - month growth, showing a characteristic that the upstream was better than the downstream. Overall, the price in September continued the recovery trend, and with the boost of policies in the fourth quarter, prices were expected to continue to recover. For the bond market, the internal "re - inflation" and policy trading logic would suppress the downward space of interest rates [5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Content CPI Analysis - Food and energy continued to drag down CPI year - on - year. The price drops of pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits dragged down CPI year - on - year by 0.78pct, and the energy price drop dragged down CPI year - on - year by 0.2pct. The core CPI year - on - year accelerated its increase and returned to 1% after a year and a half. Service prices remained stable, with a year - on - year growth of 0.6%, the same as last month. In addition, the year - on - year decline of consumer goods prices in September narrowed by 0.2pct compared with last month, the first narrowing since June [2][3] PPI Analysis - PPI year - on - year continued to recover, and month - on - month growth slowed down, partly affected by imported factors such as crude oil, with the upstream performing better than the downstream. The year - on - year growth of ex - factory prices of production materials fully recovered. The year - on - year growth rates of mining, raw materials, and processing industries were - 9%, - 2.9%, and - 1.7% respectively, with growth rates increasing by 2.5pct, 1.2pct, and 0.5pct respectively compared with last month. The ex - factory prices of domestic coal, ferrous metals and other industries increased year - on - year continuously, while the ex - factory prices of domestic crude oil, chemical and other downstream industries were affected by the decline of international oil prices. The year - on - year growth of ex - factory prices of living materials remained stable, with the prices of daily necessities recovering and the prices of durable goods dragging down. In September, the year - on - year growth rates of food, clothing, daily necessities, and durable goods were - 1.7%, - 0.3%, 0.7%, and - 3.9% respectively, with growth rates remaining the same, decreasing by 0.3pct, increasing by 0.3pct, and decreasing by 0.2pct respectively compared with last month. The ex - factory prices of green and high - end industries increased year - on - year, such as aircraft manufacturing (1.4%), electronic special material manufacturing (1.2%), waste resource comprehensive utilization industry (0.9%), and wearable smart device manufacturing (0.1%) [4] Overall Outlook - In September, the price continued the recovery trend. Except for imported factors and the drag of some agricultural products, the internal "re - inflation" momentum was continuous and conductive. The market still had a strong expectation of "re - inflation" from the pricing of commodity futures contracts. With the boost of policies in the fourth quarter to the fundamentals and expectations, prices were expected to continue to recover. For the bond market, the internal "re - inflation" and policy trading logic would suppress the downward space of interest rates. Overseas risk events that were still undetermined recently had a short - term impact on the bond market. If returning to the internal narrative, if "re - inflation" was realized, the decline of real interest rates might have an "equivalent" effect of interest rate cuts, and the market should not have too high expectations for monetary easing [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market, particularly focusing on local government bonds and the impact of VAT adjustments on pricing and investment strategies [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Dynamics** - Local government bond yields are converging, with a notable focus on older bonds that have higher coupons and better liquidity. New code bonds need to be reassessed for relative and absolute returns [1][3]. 2. **Impact of VAT on Bond Pricing** - Following the reintroduction of VAT, the pricing of bonds has shown a convergence in volatility. For instance, the yield range for 10-year government bonds has decreased from 1.70-1.75% to 1.68-1.72%, indicating a market in a waiting phase [2][7]. 3. **New Code Bonds Performance** - New code local government bonds are actively issued, with yields averaging 5 basis points higher than old code bonds. The pricing reflects a 3% VAT, primarily driven by proprietary trading desks, indicating a balance in tax burden sharing [4][6]. 4. **Liquidity and Spread Changes** - Both new and old local government bonds exhibit high liquidity, leading to a narrowing of spreads. The 30-year and 10-year government bonds are highlighted as having significant investment value due to their high spread positions [5][6]. 5. **Real Estate Market Insights** - The recent easing of real estate purchase restrictions in Beijing does not signal a new relaxation cycle. Existing policies are near their limits, and significant recovery in the real estate market is unlikely until 2026, requiring additional policy measures [6][7]. 6. **Inflation and Economic Stimulus** - Inflation recovery is expected to take time, with commodity prices reflecting more elasticity in futures rather than spot markets. Structural economic stimulus measures are deemed necessary for long-term stability [1][6]. 7. **Central Bank's Cautious Approach** - The central bank has shown caution in liquidity provision, with recent operations indicating a careful approach to market dynamics. The probability of funding rates dropping below 1.2% is considered low, reflecting a stable yet cautious monetary policy stance [2][7]. Other Important Insights - The market's risk appetite is diminishing, with a shift in focus from risk assets to bond market dynamics. The correlation between stock markets and bond markets has weakened, indicating a more cautious investment environment [2][3]. - The competition for older bonds is categorized into three types based on their issuance time, coupon rates, and liquidity, highlighting the strategic adjustments needed in investment approaches [3][4].