2026年1月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年12月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.8%， 环比上涨0.2%；工业生产出厂价格指数（PPI）同比下降1.9%，环比上涨0.2%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟在解读数据时表示，2025年12月份，扩内需、促消费政策措施继续 显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求有所增加，CPI同比和环比均出现上涨。同时，受国际大宗商品价 格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，PPI环比上涨，同比仍处于下降 区间。 国联民生证券首席经济学家陶川对《中国经营报》记者表示："12月CPI与PPI环比'联袂'正增长较为罕 见（2023年以来仅出现过四次）。结合12月PMI的超预期反弹来看，这一组合信号共同释放出一季度经 济企稳向好的积极预期。展望后续，政策层面的持续发力仍将发挥关键托底作用，尤其是625亿元以旧 换新专项政策提前下达，叠加春节前的消费旺季，有望巩固通胀修复的'开门红'态势。" CPI环比由降转涨 从CPI看，2025年12月份，CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%；同比上涨0.8%，涨幅较上月扩大0.1 个百分点，回升至2 ...

具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周下跌3.54%、原油下跌3.55%；黑色系板块，焦煤周下跌10.83%、铁 矿石下跌1.11%、焦炭周下跌6.94%；基本金属板块，碳酸锂周上涨6.03%、沪铜上涨1.40%、沪锌上涨 1.29%；贵金属板块，沪金周上涨1.00%、沪银上涨8.80%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周下跌1.28%、生猪上涨 2.17%、豆粕下跌1.81%。 交易行情热点 热点一：需求疲软、蒙煤增量，双焦期货弱势难改 本周双焦期货延续弱势震荡，焦煤主力合约周跌10.83%，焦炭主力合约周跌6.94%，截至12月12日，焦 煤主力报1016.5元/吨，焦炭主力报1475元/吨。核心驱动源于蒙古国煤炭出口增量预期落地、焦炭第二 轮提降执行，叠加铁水产量回落，供需失衡下市场情绪偏弱。 供给上，焦煤供给宽松态势加剧。国内焦煤矿产能利用率85.31%，周环比微降0.28%，年底部分煤矿减 产但被进口煤完全补充。蒙煤通关持续高位，甘其毛都口岸日均通关1458车，环比增67车，11月以来维 持高位。蒙古国12月10日明确2026年煤炭出口计划9000万吨，2027年拟达1亿吨，通过启用铜精粉运输 公路、提升矿山发运量等措施扩 ...

[Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 通胀修复，从 PPI 切换至 CPI 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 11 月 CPI 同比 0.7%，与预期持平，前月 0.2%。CPI 环比-0.1%，前月 0.2%。 剔除食品和能源的核心 CPI 同比 1.2%，前值 1.2%。核心 CPI 环比-0.1%，前月 0.2%。 PPI 同比-2.2%，低于预期的-2.0%，前月-2.1%。PPI 环比 0.1%，前月 0.1%。如何看待 11 月通胀数据？ CPI 环比符合季节性特征，翘尾支撑同比反弹。11 月 CPI环比-0.1%，略好于 2021-2024 年同期均值-0.2% （下文季节性对比均基于此口径），仍不及 2015-2019 年同期均值（0%）。同比方面，翘尾因素回升 0.6 个百分 点，推动 CPI同比回升 0.5pct 至 0.7%，创下年内新高。拆分来看： 一是食品环比上涨 0.5%，显著强于季节性（-0.5%），为主要拉动项。究其原因，受北方降温及南方暴雨的 双重供给冲击，鲜菜价格环比大涨 7.2%，显著高于往年季节性（-4.7%），单项拉动 CP ...

Economic Overview - In October, major economic indicators in China fell short of market expectations, with industrial added value growing by 4.9% year-on-year (expected 5.2%) and the service production index increasing by 4.6% [1][6] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative decline of 1.7% year-on-year (expected -0.7%), with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates at 1.5% and 2.7% respectively, both below expectations [1][6] Consumption - Retail sales growth was 2.9% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous month, with significant structural changes observed [7] - Durable goods consumption weakened, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, with automotive sales down 6.6% year-on-year [7] - Service consumption, particularly in the restaurant sector, showed improvement, with restaurant service consumption growth rising to 3.8% [7][8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment declined by 1.7% in October, with significant drops in real estate investment at -14.7% and manufacturing investment at -6.7% [11][14] - Real estate sales saw a notable decrease, with sales area and amount down 18.8% and 24.3% respectively [11] - Infrastructure investment continued to contract, with a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [12] Trade - Exports in October saw a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% in dollar terms, marking the first negative growth since February 2025 [16] - Imports also slowed to a growth rate of 1.0%, indicating weak domestic demand [19] Supply Side - Industrial production growth slowed, with the industrial added value increasing by only 4.9%, below market expectations [22] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating contraction for the first time since April [22] Inflation - CPI turned positive at 0.2%, the highest since February, while core CPI inflation rose to 1.2% [23][24] - PPI showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1% [24] Forward Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased, with multiple incremental policies expected to take effect in November and December to boost infrastructure and manufacturing investment [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September 2025, the year - on - year declines of CPI and PPI narrowed, and inflation continued to recover. CPI was dragged down by food and energy sub - items, but the year - on - year growth of core CPI returned to 1%, and consumer goods prices recovered. PPI year - on - year continued to recover, with a slowdown in month - on - month growth, showing a characteristic that the upstream was better than the downstream. Overall, the price in September continued the recovery trend, and with the boost of policies in the fourth quarter, prices were expected to continue to recover. For the bond market, the internal "re - inflation" and policy trading logic would suppress the downward space of interest rates [5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Content CPI Analysis - Food and energy continued to drag down CPI year - on - year. The price drops of pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits dragged down CPI year - on - year by 0.78pct, and the energy price drop dragged down CPI year - on - year by 0.2pct. The core CPI year - on - year accelerated its increase and returned to 1% after a year and a half. Service prices remained stable, with a year - on - year growth of 0.6%, the same as last month. In addition, the year - on - year decline of consumer goods prices in September narrowed by 0.2pct compared with last month, the first narrowing since June [2][3] PPI Analysis - PPI year - on - year continued to recover, and month - on - month growth slowed down, partly affected by imported factors such as crude oil, with the upstream performing better than the downstream. The year - on - year growth of ex - factory prices of production materials fully recovered. The year - on - year growth rates of mining, raw materials, and processing industries were - 9%, - 2.9%, and - 1.7% respectively, with growth rates increasing by 2.5pct, 1.2pct, and 0.5pct respectively compared with last month. The ex - factory prices of domestic coal, ferrous metals and other industries increased year - on - year continuously, while the ex - factory prices of domestic crude oil, chemical and other downstream industries were affected by the decline of international oil prices. The year - on - year growth of ex - factory prices of living materials remained stable, with the prices of daily necessities recovering and the prices of durable goods dragging down. In September, the year - on - year growth rates of food, clothing, daily necessities, and durable goods were - 1.7%, - 0.3%, 0.7%, and - 3.9% respectively, with growth rates remaining the same, decreasing by 0.3pct, increasing by 0.3pct, and decreasing by 0.2pct respectively compared with last month. The ex - factory prices of green and high - end industries increased year - on - year, such as aircraft manufacturing (1.4%), electronic special material manufacturing (1.2%), waste resource comprehensive utilization industry (0.9%), and wearable smart device manufacturing (0.1%) [4] Overall Outlook - In September, the price continued the recovery trend. Except for imported factors and the drag of some agricultural products, the internal "re - inflation" momentum was continuous and conductive. The market still had a strong expectation of "re - inflation" from the pricing of commodity futures contracts. With the boost of policies in the fourth quarter to the fundamentals and expectations, prices were expected to continue to recover. For the bond market, the internal "re - inflation" and policy trading logic would suppress the downward space of interest rates. Overseas risk events that were still undetermined recently had a short - term impact on the bond market. If returning to the internal narrative, if "re - inflation" was realized, the decline of real interest rates might have an "equivalent" effect of interest rate cuts, and the market should not have too high expectations for monetary easing [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market, particularly focusing on local government bonds and the impact of VAT adjustments on pricing and investment strategies [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Dynamics** - Local government bond yields are converging, with a notable focus on older bonds that have higher coupons and better liquidity. New code bonds need to be reassessed for relative and absolute returns [1][3]. 2. **Impact of VAT on Bond Pricing** - Following the reintroduction of VAT, the pricing of bonds has shown a convergence in volatility. For instance, the yield range for 10-year government bonds has decreased from 1.70-1.75% to 1.68-1.72%, indicating a market in a waiting phase [2][7]. 3. **New Code Bonds Performance** - New code local government bonds are actively issued, with yields averaging 5 basis points higher than old code bonds. The pricing reflects a 3% VAT, primarily driven by proprietary trading desks, indicating a balance in tax burden sharing [4][6]. 4. **Liquidity and Spread Changes** - Both new and old local government bonds exhibit high liquidity, leading to a narrowing of spreads. The 30-year and 10-year government bonds are highlighted as having significant investment value due to their high spread positions [5][6]. 5. **Real Estate Market Insights** - The recent easing of real estate purchase restrictions in Beijing does not signal a new relaxation cycle. Existing policies are near their limits, and significant recovery in the real estate market is unlikely until 2026, requiring additional policy measures [6][7]. 6. **Inflation and Economic Stimulus** - Inflation recovery is expected to take time, with commodity prices reflecting more elasticity in futures rather than spot markets. Structural economic stimulus measures are deemed necessary for long-term stability [1][6]. 7. **Central Bank's Cautious Approach** - The central bank has shown caution in liquidity provision, with recent operations indicating a careful approach to market dynamics. The probability of funding rates dropping below 1.2% is considered low, reflecting a stable yet cautious monetary policy stance [2][7]. Other Important Insights - The market's risk appetite is diminishing, with a shift in focus from risk assets to bond market dynamics. The correlation between stock markets and bond markets has weakened, indicating a more cautious investment environment [2][3]. - The competition for older bonds is categorized into three types based on their issuance time, coupon rates, and liquidity, highlighting the strategic adjustments needed in investment approaches [3][4].