Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the bond market experienced a downward trend in yields, primarily influenced by a loose funding environment and the new VAT policy, resulting in a steepening yield curve [1][6] - As of August 8, the yields for 30Y, 10Y, and 1Y government bonds changed by 1.1BP, -1.68BP, and -2.28BP, respectively, closing at 1.96%, 1.69%, and 1.35% [1][6] - The yield spread between 30Y-10Y and 10Y-1Y increased by 2.78BP and 0.6BP to 27.09BP and 33.85BP, indicating a steepening of the yield curve [1][6] Group 2 - The bond issuance scale from August 4 to August 10 saw an overall increase, with government bonds issued amounting to 468.55 billion yuan, local bonds at 165.46 billion yuan, and interbank certificates of deposit at 775.88 billion yuan, totaling an increase of 505.72 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2][18] - The issuance progress of local bonds reached 64.7%, with new special bonds and general bonds at 64% and 68.2%, respectively, indicating a steady issuance pace [2][18] Group 3 - The central bank's net withdrawal through reverse repos was 536.5 billion yuan from August 4 to August 8, with a subsequent announcement of a 700 billion yuan buyout reverse repo, maintaining a balanced and loose funding environment [3][20] - The DR001 rate slightly decreased by 0.23BP to 1.31%, while the DR007 remained stable at 1.43% [3][20] Group 4 - The bond market strategy suggests a bullish outlook with a focus on trading opportunities, emphasizing the need to monitor four key factors: improvement in the fundamentals, the central bank's support for a balanced funding environment, the impact of the VAT policy on market volatility, and the balance between stocks and bonds [4][22] - The strategy recommends maintaining duration in a volatile market while focusing on trading values of old bonds and allocation values of new bonds, with a caution to take profits when yields are low [5][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In July, the bond market oscillated weakly due to factors such as the central bank's protection of the capital market, short - term settlement of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the "anti - involution" driving the equity and commodity markets. The long - end yield increased more, with the 10Y and 1Y Treasury bond yields rising by 6BP and 4BP respectively [1][8]. - In August, from the fundamental perspective, focus on the possible improvement of CPI and social financing structure, the resilience of exports after the extension of Sino - US tariff exemptions, the marginal changes of PMI in domestic and external demand, and the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the improvement of the prosperity index. Also, observe the possible disturbances of the improvement of key data such as real estate on the fundamentals and expectations [2]. - In terms of supply, the single - month issuance peak of ultra - long special national bonds and the continued high - level use of new special bonds are expected to drive the high supply of government bonds in August. The net supply of government bonds in August may be around 1.4 trillion yuan, which may be the peak in the second half of the year [2]. - Regarding the capital market, there may be phased fluctuations due to the end of the month and the peak of inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) maturities. After entering August, with the decline of inter - bank CD scale and the central bank's protection, the capital market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The central bank may restart Treasury bond trading, and multiple tools will jointly support the reasonable and abundant liquidity [2]. - From the policy perspective, the Politburo meeting at the end of July was positive but with limited incremental information. The Sino - US tariff negotiation was settled at the end of July, with a 90 - day tariff exemption extension, and the attitude of the US needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - In terms of institutional behavior, institutions still increased their holdings in July. In August, with interest rates likely to decline and fluctuate, focus on the support of large - scale banks for the short - end, the increase in the long - end holdings of rural commercial banks, the recovery of the fund's motivation to increase holdings by extending the duration, and the marginal change in the insurance company's willingness to allocate ultra - long - end bonds [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Oscillated Upward, and the Yield Curve Steepened Bearishly - In July, affected by multiple factors, the bond market oscillated weakly. The long - end yield increased more, with the 10Y and 1Y Treasury bond yields rising by 6BP and 4BP respectively. The term spread widened by 2BP to 32BP [1][8]. - The yield curve of Treasury bonds steepened bearishly in July, with the medium - and long - end yields generally rising more. The implied tax rate of China Development Bank bonds generally increased [9]. - Overseas, US inflation continued to rise slightly, labor data improved, and the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in July. The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut decreased. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted further [10]. 2. This Month's Outlook and Strategy (1) This Month's Bond Market Outlook: The Capital Market is Likely to Return to Normal, and Supply will Reach a Peak in the Second Half of the Year - **Fundamentals**: For the July macro - data to be released, pay attention to the possible improvement of CPI and social financing structure, the resilience of exports after the extension of tariff exemptions, the marginal changes of PMI, and the impact of real estate data improvement on fundamentals and expectations [2][28]. - **Supply**: The single - month issuance peak of ultra - long special national bonds and the continued high - level use of new special bonds will drive the high supply of government bonds in August. The net supply of government bonds in August is expected to be around 1.4 trillion yuan, which may be the peak in the second half of the year [2][41]. - **Capital Market**: There may be phased fluctuations at the end of the month, but after entering August, with the decline of inter - bank CD scale and the central bank's protection, the capital market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The central bank may restart Treasury bond trading, and multiple tools will jointly support the reasonable and abundant liquidity [2][48]. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting at the end of July was positive but with limited incremental information. The Sino - US tariff negotiation was settled at the end of July, with a 90 - day tariff exemption extension, and the attitude of the US needs to be continuously monitored [3][61]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Institutions still increased their holdings in July. In August, with interest rates likely to decline and fluctuate, focus on the support of large - scale banks for the short - end, the increase in the long - end holdings of rural commercial banks, the recovery of the fund's motivation to increase holdings by extending the duration, and the marginal change in the insurance company's willingness to allocate ultra - long - end bonds. The adjustment of government bond VAT may also affect institutional allocation logic [3][68]. (2) Bond Market Strategy: Focus on the Balance between Stocks and Bonds, the Bond Market will Oscillate Downward, and Pay Attention to Trading Opportunities - In August, the main points of concern are the return of the capital market to a loose state under the central bank's protection, the shift from the stock - bond seesaw to the balance between stocks and bonds, the peak supply of government bonds due to the acceleration of special bond issuance, and the short - term impact of the change in government bond VAT [74]. - In terms of interest rates, the bond market's capital market in August is likely to return to a stable state under the central bank's protection. The bond market is still in a favorable environment, but the implementation of broad - based monetary policies needs to be awaited. The subsequent market is likely to evolve from the stock - bond seesaw to a balanced state. Short - term bond interest rates may decline marginally. Strategies include maintaining an appropriate duration, focusing on band trading, paying attention to the trading value of old bonds and the allocation value of new bonds, taking profits when yields are low, and increasing allocations when the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises above 1.75% [76]. 3. Important Economic Calendar for August - The table provides the expected release dates and market expectations of various economic indicators in July and August, including foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2, social financing scale, etc. [78]

Group 1 - The bond market experienced fluctuations with yields initially rising and then falling, leading to a flattening of the yield curve. As of August 1, the yields for 30Y, 10Y, and 1Y government bonds changed by -1.87BP, -0.87BP, and +1BP, respectively, closing at 1.95%, 1.71%, and 1.37% [1][7] - The yield spread between 30Y-10Y and 10Y-1Y changed by 0.3BP and -1.64BP, reaching 24BP and 33BP, respectively [1][7] - Key factors influencing the bond market included the stock-bond relationship, the outcome of US-China tariff negotiations, limited incremental statements from the Political Bureau meeting, and fluctuations in the funding environment [1][7] Group 2 - The bond issuance scale decreased during the week of July 28 to August 3, with government bonds issued totaling 180.26 billion yuan, local government bonds at 337.135 billion yuan, and interbank certificates of deposit at 386.73 billion yuan, a total decrease of 393.33 billion yuan from the previous week [2][55] - The issuance progress of local government bonds reached 64.7%, with new special bonds and general bonds at 64% and 68.2%, respectively, indicating a steady issuance pace compared to historical averages [2][55] Group 3 - The central bank maintained liquidity by net injecting 6.9 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos during the week of July 28 to August 1, with funding rates showing a marginal tightening before the month-end and gradually returning to a more relaxed state afterward [3][57] - The DR001 and DR007 rates changed by -20BP and -21BP, settling at 1.31% and 1.49%, respectively [3][57] Group 4 - The bond market strategy suggests a gradual balance between stocks and bonds, with attention to the short-term impact of tax adjustments on bond yields. The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations as it re-prices previous negative factors while observing new positive elements [4][67] - The government bond supply is anticipated to remain high in August, potentially reaching around 1.4 trillion yuan, marking a peak for the second half of the year [4][67] - The announcement of the resumption of VAT on newly issued government bonds starting August 8 is expected to create short-term volatility in the bond market, with older bonds potentially benefiting from tax advantages [4][67]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and characteristics of the "Yuexinbao" investment advisory portfolio, highlighting its historical high returns and the strategies employed for asset allocation and cash flow generation [1][3][5]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - The "Yuexinbao" portfolio achieved a historical high with six consecutive days of gains in early July 2025 [3]. - Despite a bear market in recent years, the portfolio has shown stable performance, with 81.82% of the quarters since inception outperforming its benchmark [5]. - The maximum drawdown of the portfolio is limited to -9.13%, indicating effective risk management [9]. Group 2: Portfolio Characteristics - The portfolio features a 6% annual cash flow distribution, providing regular income to investors [8]. - It employs a 40:60 stock-to-bond allocation strategy, which allows for automatic rebalancing to optimize returns [14][16]. - Cash flow sources vary depending on market conditions, with bonds providing income in bear markets and stocks in bull markets [30]. Group 3: Sources of Returns - Returns are derived from three main components: stocks, bonds, and rebalancing strategies [32]. - The stock component focuses on value-oriented investments, contributing approximately 4%-5% in annual dividend yields [36][37]. - Bond returns are influenced by interest rates, with the current low levels of 10-year government bond yields enhancing bond performance [39][44]. Group 4: Recent Adjustments and Investor Engagement - The portfolio underwent rebalancing in July 2025 to adjust stock and bond allocations back to 40% and 60%, respectively, following a market rebound [27][29]. - The investment threshold for the "Yuexinbao" portfolio has been lowered to 200 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [55]. - A promotional activity offering a 50% discount on advisory fees is currently available, valid until December 31, 2025 [61]. Group 5: Investor Performance - Approximately 96.95% of investors in the "Yuexinbao" portfolio are currently profitable, indicating strong overall performance [62]. - The portfolio is recommended for investment during market phases rated between 4-5 stars, with the current rating at 4.8-4.9 stars [63][64].

今天先聊债券，因为债券跌得最多，给大家按摩一下。 跌得确实有点多，满屏都是绿色的，7-10年利率债基今天跌0.5%左右，而10年国债从1.74%的位置上行4.55bps，你从比例上看， 差不多相当于上 证跌3%吧 ，那肯定算大跌了对吧。 | 利率债二级 | | | 信用债二级 | 同业存单二级 | | 同业存单一级 … … " | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1Y | | 2Y | ЗУ | 5Y | 7Y | 10Y | 10Y以上 | | 国债 | 250001.IB | 240024.IB | 250005.IB | 250003.IB | 240018.IB | 240011.IB | 2400006 ... | | 1.5850 | | 1.5100 | 1.6000 | 1.6600 | 1.7475 | 1.7875 | 1.9750 | | - 8.50 | | - 7.00 | - 5.50 | - 6.00 | - 6.50 | 4.55 | - 3.75 | | 国开 | 210203.IB | 220203 ...