...... 第一条建议，送外卖的电瓶车先别扔。 今天A股和港股的科技板块，都迎来了大跌，如果要找原因的话，宏观和行业层面，都有可以说道说道的。 宏观层面，因为近期欧洲（法国）和小日子的政坛震荡，导致美元指数"被动"走强，昨晚， 自8月1日以来，美元指数首次向上突破99 ，这导致 降息预期+弱美元的宏观假设，有所变化，对非美市场不是什么好事情，今天恒生指数跌了1.7%，而日经225也跌超1%，是其9月1日以来，首次 跌超1个点。 行业层面的利空，其实主要也和宏观有关，11月10日，也就是1个月后，中美要再次商贸会谈，因此，大家近期也能看到，两边都在加紧搞事 情，收集筹码，昨晚提到的咱们对 锂电 的出口管制，就导致今天锂电板块领跌A股和港股。 另外，昨天提到的，静态市盈率超300倍后，股票融资时的折算率归零的规定，加剧了部分杠杆资金的恐慌情绪（因为下跌导致市盈率变化，今 晚，部分券商又对部分个股采取了上调折算率的操作，如果情绪配合，可能导致反弹回来），导致今天在韩国的两家芯片龙头企业涨的飞起的同 时，A股和H股 芯片 却继续大暴跌。 而且，有时候，悲观情绪，会带来更多的悲观情绪，比如，今天 机器人 板块的两则利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current performance of equity markets, highlighting the strong performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, while also addressing macroeconomic factors influencing market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares have shown a positive trend with over 90% of equity ETFs rising, despite the median stock still being in the red, with notable gains from leading stocks like "Ning Wang" [1]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has surged over 4%, reaching its highest level since the end of 2021 [1]. - Since September 5, A-shares have seen net financing purchases exceeding 100 billion, while Hong Kong stocks have approached 90 billion in net purchases, indicating a strong capital-driven market [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The article mentions the ongoing US-China negotiations, with the extension of the TikTok ban indicating a neutral to optimistic market sentiment [2]. - Anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is causing cautious behavior in global markets, with a notable sell-off in late trading sessions [2]. Group 3: Valuation Comparisons - The combined market capitalization of China's top three technology companies is approximately 1.36 trillion USD, comparable to Tesla's market cap, raising questions about valuation rationality [4][6]. - The article argues that the higher valuations of US tech giants are justified due to their larger customer base and clearer competitive advantages compared to Chinese firms [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article suggests a dual approach for investors: diversifying investments between US and Chinese markets and utilizing indices for exposure to Chinese tech giants, which may offer better value despite competitive pressures [7]. - It emphasizes the importance of low interest rates in driving market valuations, suggesting that investors should focus on this macroeconomic factor rather than solely on corporate earnings [20]. Group 5: Sector Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology Index has reached new highs, with current valuations (PE of 24) being lower than in 2022, suggesting potential for further growth [11]. - The ChiNext Index has also reached new highs, with a current PE of 44, indicating that while valuations are not low, they are not excessively high compared to historical peaks [16]. Group 6: Conclusion - The article concludes that the unprecedented low interest rates are the primary driver of the current market rally, and investors should maintain a balanced approach across different regions and asset classes to optimize returns [20].

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market sentiment, highlighting that a strong performance in the stock market during challenging times can significantly boost investor confidence [1][2] - It identifies two main themes in the market: interest rate cuts and the behavior of capital flows, particularly from southbound funds [3][8] - The article notes that southbound funds sold over 18 billion, marking the third-largest single-day net sell since September of the previous year, while the Hang Seng Index showed a divergence by continuing to rise [3][5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the global stock market's rebound, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 showing significant gains based on expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][9] - It explains that the recent strong performance of the US dollar led to a sell-off in Hong Kong dollar assets, prompting the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to intervene by buying HKD [8][9] - The article highlights that the A-share market is primarily driven by sentiment and capital, with a notable recovery in market mood as the Hang Seng Index rose [11][12] Group 3 - The article presents data on margin financing, indicating a pattern of consistent net buying followed by a reversal, suggesting that there is still significant capital waiting to enter the market [15][17] - It discusses the relationship between long-term bonds and the stock market, noting that bond prices acted as a leading indicator for stock movements [18][20] - The article concludes with a recommendation for investors to maintain a diversified and balanced asset allocation strategy in light of global interest rate cut trends [21][22] Group 4 - The article mentions that gold and US Treasuries are benefiting from the interest rate cut narrative, with gold prices rising significantly [25][26] - It highlights the performance of gold ETFs, noting that they are among the few low-fee options available in the market [28] - The article discusses the bond market's current sentiment and the potential for future bond purchases depending on new bond issuance [30][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract shows a long - signal at the daily level and the weekly level, with a neutral signal at the monthly level. The CSI 1000 has a short - signal at the daily level and neutral signals at the weekly and monthly levels [2][53]. - The net value of the multi - asset portfolio is 2.17, the net value of the Treasury bond arbitrage portfolio is 4.0, the long - term hedging signal persists, and there is no arbitrage signal. The net values of the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are also provided [2][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Multivariate Asset Market Quick View 3.1.1. Market Price Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,295.06, up 0.56%. The CSI 1000 rose 1.85% to 5,939.50, while the SSE 50 fell 0.33% to 2,648.81. Among Treasury bonds, the 10 - year Treasury bond main contract decreased by 0.21% to 108.77. Commodity indexes generally showed an upward trend, with the Agricultural CFCI rising 1.54% to 158.43. In the international market, the Nasdaq Composite Index soared 6.73% to 17,382.94, and the Brent crude oil main contract dropped 1.75% to 65.83 [12]. 3.1.2. Sino - US Treasury Bond Interest Rates - US Treasury bond real yields decreased across different maturities from April 21 - 25, 2025. For example, the 10 - year real yield decreased from 2.20% to 2.02%. Chinese policy - based financial bond (CDB) and fixed - rate Treasury bond yields showed minor fluctuations during the same period [14][15]. 3.2. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Multivariate Assets 3.2.1. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Stocks - The ratios of the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000, the Nasdaq to the FTSE 100, the Nasdaq to the German DAX, and the Nasdaq to the Nikkei 225 are presented, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationships among different stock indexes [17][19][21]. 3.2.2. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Commodities - The ratios of the CSI Commodity Index to the Metal Index, the Energy Index, the Agricultural Product Index, and the Chemical Index are provided, indicating the relative strength - weakness relationships among different commodity indexes [24][27][29][31]. 3.2.3. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Treasury Bonds - The ratios of Chinese Treasury bonds to US Treasury bonds and the long - short - term ratios of Chinese Treasury bonds are shown, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationships among different Treasury bonds [33][34]. 3.2.4. Stock - Bond Strength - Weakness - The ratios of the CSI 300 to the Chinese Treasury bond net - price index and the Nasdaq to the US Treasury bond core bond are presented, showing the relative strength - weakness relationship between stocks and bonds [36][37]. 3.2.5. Bond - Commodity Strength - Weakness - The relationship between the copper - gold ratio and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures and the relationship between the gold - oil ratio and the US Treasury bond core bond are analyzed, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationship between bonds and commodities [41][42]. 3.3. Multivariate Asset Signal Tracking and Simulated Net Value 3.3.1. One - Week Review of Multivariate Asset Signals - From April 21 - 25, 2025, the corn main contract had a long - signal at the 60 - minute level on April 21, and the 10 - year Treasury bond main contract had long - signals at the 60 - minute level every day during this period [1][44]. 3.3.2. Multivariate Asset Simulated Net Value - **Treasury Bond Strategy Simulated Net Value Tracking**: The net value of the Treasury bond arbitrage portfolio is 4.0, with no arbitrage signal and a persistent long - term hedging signal. The net values of the 5 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are 1.2241 and 1.2065 respectively, and those of the 10 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are 1.2736 and 1.2563 respectively [45]. - **Multivariate Asset Portfolio Simulated Net Value Tracking**: The net value of the multi - asset portfolio is 2.17. The initial capital is 10 million RMB, with 10 lots per futures transaction. The latest signals show that the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract has long - signals at the daily and weekly levels and a neutral signal at the monthly level, while the CSI 1000 has a short - signal at the daily level and neutral signals at the weekly and monthly levels [2][53].