2025 年 8 月 26 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、原油期货将偏强震荡 螺纹钢、 铁矿石、玻璃、纯碱、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 4550 和 4600 点，支撑位 4475 和 4450 点；IH2509 阻力位 3040 和 3060 点，支撑位 2992 和 2975 点；IC2509 阻力位 7000 和 7100 点，支撑位 6910 和 6860 点；IM2509 阻力位 7550 和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 18, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes promoting the healthy and high - quality development of the private economy [8]. - China's economic data for July shows that industrial added - value and consumer spending increased year - on - year, while real estate investment declined [8]. - National housing price data in July shows that prices in most cities decreased month - on - month, and the number of cities with rising prices decreased [9]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote a reasonable rise in prices [10]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is promoting a "penetrating" supervision system [10]. - China sues Canada at the WTO over import restrictions on steel products [10]. - The upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday will have an 8 - day holiday, and tolls for small passenger cars will be waived [11]. - Hong Kong's financial secretary believes that the economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities [12]. - KPMG China believes that the central government has room to increase fiscal spending, and policies may be re - arranged in the fourth quarter [12]. - Trump has no plan to impose tariffs on Chinese products due to China's purchase of Russian oil [12]. - Trump and Putin met in Alaska, and significant progress was made in the Russia - Ukraine issue [13]. - The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and plans to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors [15]. - The US trade negotiation representative cancelled the trip to India, and the hope of reaching an agreement before the deadline was dashed [15]. - Some Fed officials are hesitant about interest rate cuts due to inflation data and tariff uncertainties [15]. - US retail sales increased in July, but consumer confidence declined in August [15][16]. - China's soybean imports are mainly from South America during the peak export season [17]. - Japan's GDP grew in the second quarter [17]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options, as well as fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp options [17]. - On the night of August 15, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with palm oil, coking coal, and other products leading the gains [18]. - The global physical gold ETF had an inflow of $3.2 billion in July, and the total asset management scale reached a record high [20]. - On August 15, international precious metal futures, crude oil futures, and some base metal futures closed lower, while agricultural product futures on the CBOT closed higher [20][21][22]. - China's foreign exchange market was stable in July, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [22][23]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different trends, with most of them rising. It is expected that on August 18, stock index futures will show a strong and volatile trend [23][24][25]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures declined. It is expected that on August 18, they will show a weak and volatile trend [50][54]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. It is expected that on August 18, gold futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and silver futures will show a volatile and consolidating trend [56][62]. Base Metal Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 18, copper futures will show a volatile and consolidating trend, aluminum futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and alumina futures will show a strong and volatile trend [67][73][78]. Energy Futures - On August 15, the main contract of crude oil futures rose slightly. It is expected that on August 18, it will show a weak and volatile trend [118]. Agricultural Product Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of most agricultural product futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 18, most of them will show a strong and volatile trend, while natural rubber futures will show a weak and volatile trend [129][131][142].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the July 2, 2025, futures market trends, including the likely performance of various futures contracts such as stock index futures, bond futures, and commodity futures [2]. - It also presents the expected trends for these futures in July 2025, offering resistance and support levels [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 2, 2025, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3904 and 3931 points and support at 3867 and 3852 points [2]. - **Bond Futures**: Ten - year and thirty - year bond futures are likely to have a relatively strong oscillation on July 2, 2025. For instance, the T2509 ten - year bond futures contract has resistance at 109.06 and 109.12 yuan and support at 108.92 and 108.88 yuan [3]. - **Commodity Futures**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, while silver futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation on July 2, 2025 [3]. - **Base Metals**: Copper and aluminum futures may have a relatively strong oscillation, while zinc and industrial silicon futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation [3][4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while fuel oil, PTA, and other futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation [3][5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Bean meal futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation [7]. Macro Information and Trading Tips - Central Financial and Economic Commission held its sixth meeting to discuss issues such as the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [8]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June reached 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, returning above the critical point [8]. - From January to May, the added value of large - scale light industry increased by 7% year - on - year, and the retail sales of furniture and household appliances increased significantly [8]. - From January to May, large - scale Internet companies' business revenue increased by 0.9% year - on - year, while their total profit decreased by 2.2% [8]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the performance of various stock index futures contracts was mixed, with some showing weak rebounds and some showing slight declines. The expected trend in July 2025 is a relatively strong oscillation [14][15][18]. - **Bond Futures**: On July 1, 2025, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 1310 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rates declined [34]. - **Commodity Futures**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver futures showed rebounds on July 1, 2025. The expected trend in July 2025 is a wide - range oscillation for gold and a relatively strong wide - range oscillation for silver [44][50]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures had different performances on July 1, 2025. The expected trend in July 2025 is a relatively strong wide - range oscillation for most of them [52][57]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil futures showed a slight rebound on July 1, 2025. The expected trend in July 2025 is a relatively strong wide - range oscillation [89]. - **Agricultural Products**: Bean meal futures had a weak rebound on July 1, 2025, and are expected to have a relatively weak oscillation on July 2, 2025 [103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's (May 15, 2025) futures main contracts. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while gold, silver, crude oil, glass, soda ash, and PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly. Alumina, PVC, styrene futures, and container shipping index (European line) futures are predicted to oscillate strongly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are expected to oscillate strongly. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 main contracts are likely to oscillate widely [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, rebar, hot - rolled coils, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and crude oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Aluminum, alumina, zinc, iron ore, PVC, styrene, and container shipping index (European line) futures are likely to oscillate strongly [2][3][4][6]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - **Tariff Measures**: China's counter - measures against US fentanyl tariffs remain effective. The US has adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, canceling 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. The US has also adjusted the ad - valorem tax rate for small Chinese parcels and canceled a planned increase in the specific tax [7]. - **Monetary Policy**: China's central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points for most financial institutions and 5 percentage points for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market [8]. - **Other Policies**: Seven departments have jointly issued policies to promote science and technology finance. The National Development and Reform Commission has held a symposium for private enterprises, and the State Council has issued a legislative work plan [9]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On May 14, international precious metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 2.07% to $3180.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.15% to $32.39 per ounce [11]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices weakened on May 14. US crude oil futures fell 1.23% to $62.89 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.23% to $65.81 per barrel [11]. - **Other Commodities**: Domestic commodity futures had mixed results on May 14. Energy and chemical products generally rose, while base metals mostly closed higher. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly, and the US dollar index rose slightly [12][13]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On May 14, index futures showed strong performance. A - shares also rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3400 points. The market has rumors about account verification and fund positions, and insurance funds are expected to increase their allocation of CSI A500 index components [13][14][15][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 14, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board. The ten - year and thirty - year main contracts are expected to oscillate widely on May 15 [37][42]. - **Commodity Futures**: Each commodity futures contract's performance on May 14 is analyzed, and the trend for May 15 is predicted, including resistance and support levels [43][49][53] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract shows a long - signal at the daily level and the weekly level, with a neutral signal at the monthly level. The CSI 1000 has a short - signal at the daily level and neutral signals at the weekly and monthly levels [2][53]. - The net value of the multi - asset portfolio is 2.17, the net value of the Treasury bond arbitrage portfolio is 4.0, the long - term hedging signal persists, and there is no arbitrage signal. The net values of the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are also provided [2][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Multivariate Asset Market Quick View 3.1.1. Market Price Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,295.06, up 0.56%. The CSI 1000 rose 1.85% to 5,939.50, while the SSE 50 fell 0.33% to 2,648.81. Among Treasury bonds, the 10 - year Treasury bond main contract decreased by 0.21% to 108.77. Commodity indexes generally showed an upward trend, with the Agricultural CFCI rising 1.54% to 158.43. In the international market, the Nasdaq Composite Index soared 6.73% to 17,382.94, and the Brent crude oil main contract dropped 1.75% to 65.83 [12]. 3.1.2. Sino - US Treasury Bond Interest Rates - US Treasury bond real yields decreased across different maturities from April 21 - 25, 2025. For example, the 10 - year real yield decreased from 2.20% to 2.02%. Chinese policy - based financial bond (CDB) and fixed - rate Treasury bond yields showed minor fluctuations during the same period [14][15]. 3.2. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Multivariate Assets 3.2.1. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Stocks - The ratios of the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000, the Nasdaq to the FTSE 100, the Nasdaq to the German DAX, and the Nasdaq to the Nikkei 225 are presented, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationships among different stock indexes [17][19][21]. 3.2.2. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Commodities - The ratios of the CSI Commodity Index to the Metal Index, the Energy Index, the Agricultural Product Index, and the Chemical Index are provided, indicating the relative strength - weakness relationships among different commodity indexes [24][27][29][31]. 3.2.3. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Treasury Bonds - The ratios of Chinese Treasury bonds to US Treasury bonds and the long - short - term ratios of Chinese Treasury bonds are shown, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationships among different Treasury bonds [33][34]. 3.2.4. Stock - Bond Strength - Weakness - The ratios of the CSI 300 to the Chinese Treasury bond net - price index and the Nasdaq to the US Treasury bond core bond are presented, showing the relative strength - weakness relationship between stocks and bonds [36][37]. 3.2.5. Bond - Commodity Strength - Weakness - The relationship between the copper - gold ratio and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures and the relationship between the gold - oil ratio and the US Treasury bond core bond are analyzed, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationship between bonds and commodities [41][42]. 3.3. Multivariate Asset Signal Tracking and Simulated Net Value 3.3.1. One - Week Review of Multivariate Asset Signals - From April 21 - 25, 2025, the corn main contract had a long - signal at the 60 - minute level on April 21, and the 10 - year Treasury bond main contract had long - signals at the 60 - minute level every day during this period [1][44]. 3.3.2. Multivariate Asset Simulated Net Value - **Treasury Bond Strategy Simulated Net Value Tracking**: The net value of the Treasury bond arbitrage portfolio is 4.0, with no arbitrage signal and a persistent long - term hedging signal. The net values of the 5 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are 1.2241 and 1.2065 respectively, and those of the 10 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are 1.2736 and 1.2563 respectively [45]. - **Multivariate Asset Portfolio Simulated Net Value Tracking**: The net value of the multi - asset portfolio is 2.17. The initial capital is 10 million RMB, with 10 lots per futures transaction. The latest signals show that the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract has long - signals at the daily and weekly levels and a neutral signal at the monthly level, while the CSI 1000 has a short - signal at the daily level and neutral signals at the weekly and monthly levels [2][53].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of the futures market, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, it predicts the price trends, support, and resistance levels of various futures contracts on April 1, 2025, and also gives the expected trends for April 2025 in some cases [2][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Forecast for April 1, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. For example, IF2506 has resistance at 3886 and 3902 points, and support at 3833 and 3808 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [3][4]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2506 will likely oscillate strongly and reach new highs, while silver futures AG2506 will likely oscillate weakly [4]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, lead, nickel, and other base metal futures are mostly expected to oscillate weakly, while zinc futures will oscillate and consolidate, and tin futures will oscillate strongly [4][5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil and fuel oil futures will likely oscillate strongly, while natural rubber and 20 - number rubber futures will likely oscillate weakly [10]. - **Other Futures**: PTA, PVC, glass, and soda ash futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while steel - related futures such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate weakly [5][7][9][10]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic Macro News**: China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, with the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI rising in March. The government will take measures to reduce corporate burdens, and the central bank has carried out open - market operations [12]. - **International Macro News**: Trump plans to announce a tariff policy, which has affected the Asian - Pacific stock markets. Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US economic recession and lowered the GDP growth forecast. The global economic outlook may be slightly revised downward, but there are no signs of recession [14][15]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast for March 31, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Most stock index futures contracts closed down on March 31, with increased short - term downward pressure [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures had different trends on March 31, with the ten - year showing a slight decline and the thirty - year showing a slight increase [43][46]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures closed up, reaching a new high, while silver futures closed slightly down [49][52]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures closed down on March 31, with varying degrees of downward pressure [59][64][73][77][79]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil and fuel oil futures closed down on March 31, with increased short - term downward pressure [110][112]. - **Other Futures**: Steel - related futures such as rebar and hot - rolled coil closed down, while glass and soda ash futures also closed down, with increased downward pressure [87][90][104][106]. 4. Expected Trends for April 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM are expected to oscillate weakly in April 2025, with specific support and resistance levels provided [24][25]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly in April 2025, with expected resistance and support levels [49][52]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures have different expected trends in April 2025, such as copper oscillating strongly and aluminum having a wide - range oscillation [59][64]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures are expected to oscillate strongly in a wide range in April 2025 [110].