2025 年 11 月 24 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 碳酸锂期 货将震荡偏弱 纯碱、原油、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货大概率将偏强震荡：IF2512 阻力位 4457 和 4511 点，支撑位 4400 和 4369 点；IH2512 阻力位 2968 和 2994 点，支撑位 2979 和 2963 点；IC2512 阻力位 6872 和 6970 点，支撑位 6700 和 6622 点；IM2512 阻 力位 ...

2025 年 11 月 20 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 碳酸锂期 货将震荡偏强 原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货大概率将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4592 和 4611 点，支撑位 4530 和 4520 点；IH2512 阻力位 3030 和 3041 点，支撑位 2998 和 2979 点；IC2512 阻力位 7100 和 7129 点，支撑位 7006 和 6948 点；IM2512 阻 力位 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, influenced by the stock market, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. - Due to the rising repo rate and the oscillating Treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is rated as neutral. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis. For hedging, considering the medium - term adjustment pressure, short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year; monthly PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.4%, down 0.4% (-4.55%); manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8% (-1.61%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 99.48, down 0.14 (-0.14%); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1238, up 0.003 (+0.05%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.50, up 0.02 (+1.56%); DR007 was 1.51, up 0.01 (+0.89%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.02 (-1.24%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.01 (+0.40%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, up 0.00 (+0.40%) [10]. II. Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - Multiple figures are provided to show the situation of the Treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance [13][16][19][22]. III. Money Market Funding Situation - Multiple figures are provided to show the money market situation, including the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local bond issuance [28][33][34]. IV. Spread Overview - Multiple figures are provided to show various spread situations, such as the inter - term spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [33][38][43]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple figures are provided to show the situation of two - year Treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [40][45][52]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple figures are provided to show the situation of five - year Treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [54][58]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple figures are provided to show the situation of ten - year Treasury bond futures, including the implied yield and Treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][63]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple figures are provided to show the situation of thirty - year Treasury bond futures, including the implied yield and Treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on November 7, 2025, including weak oscillations for stock index futures, iron ore, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and soybean meal futures; shock consolidation for gold and silver futures; and wide - range oscillations for some other futures contracts [2][3][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China emphasizes the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port, promotes trade and investment liberalization, and responds to the issue of Nexperia. The Chinese government also conducts reverse repurchase operations and adjusts administrative divisions. In the US, Trump reaches an agreement on GLP - 1 diet pills, and the employment situation is severe, leading to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The US government shutdown affects inflation data and the aviation industry. The UK central bank maintains the interest rate, and the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December increases [8][9][10]. - On November 6, international precious - metal futures generally closed down, oil prices declined, and most London base metals rose. Indonesia stops approving applications for nickel ore processing plants, and Saudi Aramco lowers the price of crude oil sold to Asia [10][11]. 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On November 6, major stock - index futures contracts such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 showed different degrees of increase. The A - share market rose, with an increase in trading volume. MSCI adjusted its index, and Hong Kong stocks also rose. US and European stock markets generally fell [12][13][14][15][16][17]. - It is expected that on November 7, stock - index futures will show weak oscillations, and in November 2025, they will likely have wide - range oscillations [17][18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On November 6, ten - year and thirty - year treasury - bond futures contracts generally declined. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. It is expected that on November 7, ten - year and thirty - year treasury - bond futures contracts will have wide - range oscillations [34][35][36][38][39]. Precious - Metal Futures - On November 6, gold and silver futures contracts rose. It is expected that in November 2025, the continuous main contracts of gold and silver futures will have wide - range oscillations, and on November 7, they will show shock consolidation [40][48][49]. Base - Metal Futures - On November 6, copper, aluminum, alumina, and carbon - lithium futures contracts showed different degrees of increase. It is expected that in November 2025, copper, aluminum, and carbon - lithium futures will have wide - range oscillations, and alumina futures will have weak wide - range oscillations. On November 7, copper and alumina futures will have weak oscillations, and aluminum futures will have wide - range oscillations and attempt to break through resistance levels [53][59][63][67][68]. Building - Material and Energy - Chemical Futures - On November 6, futures contracts such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, and soybean meal showed different trends. It is expected that in November 2025, most of these futures will have wide - range oscillations. On November 7, rebar, glass, and soda - ash futures will show shock consolidation; hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, and soybean meal futures will have weak oscillations; and carbon - lithium futures will have strong oscillations [70][76][79][84][87][91][95][98][101][103][104].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on November 6, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and some other futures are expected to have a strong - side oscillation; crude oil, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are expected to have a weak - side oscillation; some futures such as alumina, rebar, and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook Highlights - Index futures are expected to have a strong - side oscillation. IF2512 has resistance levels at 4637 and 4653 points, and support levels at 4572 and 4536 points; IH2512 has resistance levels at 3030 and 3040 points, and support levels at 2992 and 2976 points; IC2512 has resistance levels at 7160 and 7210 points, and support levels at 7049 and 7000 points; IM2512 has resistance levels at 7365 and 7419 points, and support levels at 7257 and 7195 points [2]. - The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with resistance levels at 108.80 and 108.85 yuan, and support levels at 108.58 and 108.53 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with resistance levels at 116.8 and 117.2 yuan, and support levels at 116.1 and 116.0 yuan [2]. - Gold futures main contract AU2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 921.9 and 927.3 yuan/gram, with support levels at 908.0 and 900.4 yuan/gram [2]. - Silver futures main contract AG2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 11455 and 11483 yuan/kg, with support levels at 11210 and 11103 yuan/kg [3]. - Copper futures main contract CU2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation, with resistance levels at 86100 and 86600 yuan/ton, and support levels at 85300 and 85000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum futures main contract AL2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 21500 and 21600 yuan/ton, with support levels at 21310 and 21260 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 2752 and 2740 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 2789 and 2816 yuan/ton [4]. - Rebar futures main contract RB2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 3009 and 2990 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3046 and 3068 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 3229 and 3194 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3264 and 3292 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron ore futures main contract I2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 767 and 762 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 778 and 783 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking coal futures main contract JM2601 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 1267 and 1280 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1250 and 1240 yuan/ton [4]. - Glass futures main contract FG601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 1112 and 1127 yuan/ton, and support levels at 1091 and 1072 yuan/ton [4]. - Soda ash futures main contract SA601 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 1209 and 1215 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1186 and 1175 yuan/ton [4]. - Crude oil futures main contract SC2512 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 455 and 452 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 468 and 471 yuan/barrel [5]. - PTA futures main contract TA601 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 4554 and 4520 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 4610 and 4624 yuan/ton [5]. - PVC futures main contract V2601 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 4600 and 4560 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 4654 and 4662 yuan/ton [5]. - Methanol futures main contract MA601 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 2100 and 2080 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2141 and 2150 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean meal futures main contract M2601 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 3094 and 3125 yuan/ton, with support levels at 3060 and 3046 yuan/ton [7]. Macro News and Trading Tips - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and delivered a keynote speech, stating that China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [7]. - China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including measures related to tariffs and export controls [7]. - The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale reciprocal tariffs, and many conservative justices questioned its legality [9]. - The US federal government's "shutdown" has reached 36 days, which may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points [9]. - The EU climate ministers reached an agreement on the 2040 climate change target, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% [10]. - The eurozone's October service PMI was 53%, pushing the composite PMI to a new high since May 2023 [10]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Index Futures - On November 5, the main contracts of index futures showed different trends. IF2512 had a slight increase, IH2512 had a slight decrease, IC2512 had a slight increase, and IM2512 had a slight increase. The A - share market had a slight increase, while the Hong Kong stock market had a slight decrease, and the US and European stock markets had increases [12][13][14][15][16]. - It is expected that in November 2025, the main contracts of index futures IF, IH, IC, and IM will likely have a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. - On November 6, index futures are expected to have a strong - side oscillation [17]. Treasury Bond Futures - Ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 on November 5 had a slight decrease, with resistance at 108.80 yuan and support at 108.58 yuan. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation on November 6 [34][35]. - Thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 on November 5 had a 0.08% decrease, with resistance at 117.0 yuan and support at 116.34 yuan. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation on November 6 [37][38]. Gold Futures - Gold futures main contract AU2512 on November 5 had a 0.77% decrease, with resistance at 920.0 yuan/gram and support at 901.38 yuan/gram. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [41]. Silver Futures - Silver futures main contract AG2512 on November 5 had a 0.73% decrease, with resistance at 11351 yuan/kg and support at 11038 yuan/kg. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [46][47]. Copper Futures - Copper futures main contract CU2512 on November 5 had a 0.88% decrease, with resistance at 86000 yuan/ton and support at 85000 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [51]. Aluminum Futures - Aluminum futures main contract AL2512 on November 5 had a 0.40% decrease, with resistance at 21465 yuan/ton and support at 21200 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [55][56]. Alumina Futures - Alumina futures main contract AO2601 on November 5 had a 0.11% decrease, with resistance at 2780 yuan/ton and support at 2750 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [60]. Rebar Futures - Rebar futures main contract RB2601 on November 5 had a 1.21% decrease, with resistance at 3046 yuan/ton and support at 3000 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [65]. Hot - rolled Coil Futures - Hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 on November 5 had a 0.85% decrease, with resistance at 3265 yuan/ton and support at 3229 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [69]. Iron Ore Futures - Iron ore futures main contract I2601 on November 5 had a 0.26% decrease, with resistance at 778 yuan/ton and support at 767 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [73]. Coking Coal Futures - Coking coal futures main contract JM2601 on November 5 had a 0.47% decrease, with resistance at 1277 yuan/ton and support at 1242 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [78]. Glass Futures - Glass futures main contract FG601 on November 5 had a 0.54% decrease, with resistance at 1126 yuan/ton and support at 1088 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [81]. Soda Ash Futures - Soda ash futures main contract SA601 on November 5 had a 0.08% increase, with resistance at 1202 yuan/ton and support at 1186 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [87][88]. Crude Oil Futures - Crude oil futures main contract SC2512 on November 5 had a 0.37% decrease, with resistance at 466.1 yuan/barrel and support at 458.9 yuan/barrel. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation in November 2025 and a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [92]. PTA Futures - PTA futures main contract TA601 on November 5 had a 0.09% increase, with resistance at 4620 yuan/ton and support at 4554 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [97]. PVC Futures - PVC futures main contract V2601 on November 5 had a 0.77% decrease, with resistance at 4670 yuan/ton and support at 4620 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [99]. Methanol Futures - Methanol futures main contract MA601 on November 5 had a 0.94% increase, with resistance at 2150 yuan/ton and support at 2080 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [101]. Soybean Meal Futures - Soybean meal futures main contract M2601 on November 5 had a 1.49% increase, with resistance at 3088 yuan/ton and support at 3000 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on October 10, 2025, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, and commodity futures. It also provides resistance and support levels for each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - China's Ministry of Commerce imposes export controls on certain rare - earth items and technologies and adds 14 foreign entities to the unreliable entity list. It also issues 4 announcements on export controls for other related items [8]. - Three ministries adjust the new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption technical requirements for 2026 - 2027, increasing the pure - electric range of plug - in hybrid and extended - range passenger cars [8]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the domestic tourism spending increased by 108.189 billion yuan compared to 2024, and the average daily sales revenue of consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issue an announcement to address price disorderly competition and maintain a good market price order [8]. - From January to August this year, the added - value of above - scale industrial small and medium - sized enterprises in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, and the export index in August was 51.9% [8]. - A cease - fire agreement in Gaza is reached, and Hamas officials confirm it [8]. - A bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown fails to pass in the Senate [9]. - US Treasury Secretary is interviewing candidates for the Fed Chair, and Trump will make a final decision [9]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Williams supports further cuts this year, while Barr advocates caution [9]. - The European Central Bank considered a rate cut in September but did not implement it due to upward inflation risks [10]. Commodity Futures Information - On October 9, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures declined due to the cease - fire in Gaza and reduced geopolitical risk premiums [11]. - On October 9, international precious metal futures generally fell. COMEX gold and silver futures declined, affected by the US government shutdown, Fed officials' divided views, and the easing of the Middle East situation [11]. - On October 9, the spot silver price reached a high since the 1980s, driven by increased demand for safe - haven assets and supply shortages in the London precious metal market [11]. - On October 9, London base metals rose, supported by factors such as a falling US dollar index, rising global manufacturing PMI, and increased demand in the new - energy sector [12]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On October 9, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different trends. Overall, they had a slight rise, with some contracts approaching important resistance levels [13][14][15]. - It is expected that on October 10, stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided for each contract [19]. - It is expected that in October 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures will generally show a strong - wide - range or strong - fluctuation trend [18]. Bond Futures - On October 9, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures rose. The 10 - year contract continued to rebound, and the 30 - year contract had a stronger upward trend [34][39]. - It is expected that on October 10, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures will have a strong - wide - range fluctuation [36][41]. Precious Metal Futures - On October 9, the main contracts of gold and silver futures had significant increases, reaching new highs. Technical analysis shows a strong upward trend [42][50]. - It is expected that in October 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will be strong - fluctuating and are likely to reach new highs [45][51]. - It is expected that on October 10, the main contracts of gold and silver futures will have a strong - wide - range fluctuation and are likely to attack resistance levels [45][51]. Base Metal Futures - On October 9, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and tin futures generally rose, with some breaking through important resistance levels. The alumina futures contract had a weak performance [57][63][69][71][81]. - It is expected that in October 2025, copper, tin futures will be strong - fluctuating; aluminum, zinc, and nickel futures will have a wide - range fluctuation; alumina futures will be weak - wide - range fluctuating [57][63][70][71][81]. - It is expected that on October 10, copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin futures will have a strong - wide - range or strong - fluctuation trend; alumina futures will be strong - fluctuating; nickel futures will be weak - fluctuating [57][63][70][71][81]. Commodity Futures - On October 9, the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, and soybean oil futures generally rose; the main contracts of soda ash, crude oil, PTA, and PVC futures declined [87][90][93][98][102][110][116][118][120]. - It is expected that in October 2025, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures will have a wide - range fluctuation; crude oil futures will have a wide - range fluctuation with a downward trend; PTA and PVC futures will be weak - fluctuating; soybean oil and palm oil futures will be strong - fluctuating [87][93][98][102][107][110][116][118][120][122]. - It is expected that on October 10, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, soybean oil, and palm oil futures will be strong - fluctuating; crude oil, PTA, and PVC futures will be weak - fluctuating [2][5][6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 26, 2025, including strong - side oscillations for stock index futures, gold, and crude oil futures, and weak - side oscillations for steel rebar, iron ore, glass, soda ash, and soybean meal futures [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to have strong - side oscillations on August 26, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4550 and 4600 points and support levels at 4475 and 4450 points; IH2509 has resistance at 3040 and 3060 points and support at 2992 and 2975 points; IC2509 has resistance at 7000 and 7100 points and support at 6910 and 6860 points; IM2509 has resistance at 7550 and 7600 points and support at 7412 and 7362 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to have wide - range oscillations on August 26, 2025. T2512 has support levels at 107.73 and 107.53 yuan and resistance levels at 108.09 and 108.17 yuan; TL2512 has support at 116.1 and 115.6 yuan and resistance at 117.5 and 117.8 yuan [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: The gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to have strong - side oscillations on August 26, 2025, with resistance levels at 781.8 and 786.8 yuan/gram and support levels at 776.8 and 773.8 yuan/gram. The silver futures contract AG2510 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with support at 9281 and 9205 yuan/kg and resistance at 9404 and 9442 yuan/kg [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures contract CU2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate on August 26, 2025, with resistance at 80000 and 80200 yuan/ton and support at 79500 and 79200 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations, with support at 20630 and 20600 yuan/ton and resistance at 20770 and 20840 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support levels at 3139 and 3115 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3216 and 3233 yuan/ton. Zinc futures contract ZN2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 22200 and 22110 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22400 and 22480 yuan/ton. Nickel futures contract NI2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 120700 and 121200 yuan/ton and support at 120000 and 119500 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Industrial Product Futures**: Industrial silicon futures contract SI2511 is likely to have wide - range oscillations on August 26, 2025, with resistance at 8780 and 8910 yuan/ton and support at 8520 and 8440 yuan/ton. Polysilicon futures contract PS2511 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with support at 51200 and 50200 yuan/ton and resistance at 52200 and 53700 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate futures contract LC2511 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with support at 77800 and 76900 yuan/ton and resistance at 81000 and 81600 yuan/ton. Steel rebar futures contract RB2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations, with support at 3119 and 3104 yuan/ton and resistance at 3148 and 3169 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations, with support at 3361 and 3349 yuan/ton and resistance at 3406 and 3423 yuan/ton. Iron ore futures contract I2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 777 and 771 yuan/ton, with resistance at 789 and 795 yuan/ton. Coking coal futures contract JM2601 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with resistance at 1227 and 1251 yuan/ton and support at 1203 and 1164 yuan/ton. Glass futures contract FG601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 1167 and 1156 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1191 and 1206 yuan/ton. Soda ash futures contract SA601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 1318 and 1300 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1347 and 1365 yuan/ton. Crude oil futures contract SC2510 is likely to have strong - side oscillations and attack resistance at 499 and 504 yuan/barrel, with support at 494 and 491 yuan/barrel. PVC futures contract V2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 5000 and 4984 yuan/ton, with resistance at 5077 and 5089 yuan/ton. Soybean meal futures contract M2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 3088 and 3081 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3122 and 3135 yuan/ton [3][4][5]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Tips - China has introduced policies in multiple fields, including carbon market construction, financial support for forestry, and customs port opening. Shanghai has launched a series of real - estate policies. The US has made a series of political and economic decisions, such as personnel changes, trade tariff adjustments, and the inclusion of certain minerals in the key minerals list. Major investment banks have different expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts [8][9][10]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Henan coking enterprises plan to implement production cuts from August 25 to September 3, with an estimated cut of 20 - 35%. On August 25, international precious - metal futures generally closed down, while crude - oil futures rose due to geopolitical conflicts and inventory decline. The RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index, and non - US currency exchange rates also showed certain fluctuations [11][12][13]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 25, the four major stock - index futures contracts showed strong - side oscillations. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day moving averages of the main continuous contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed obvious long - position arrangements, with obvious upward trends in the medium - term, medium - short - term, and short - term. It is expected that before the end of August, the main continuous contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM will continue to attack key resistance levels [13][14][15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 25, the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury - bond futures contracts showed strong - side oscillations. The central bank carried out 2884 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations on that day, with a net investment of 219 billion yuan and 3000 billion yuan respectively. It is expected that on August 26, the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury - bond futures contracts will have wide - range oscillations [39][40][45]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On August 25, the gold and silver futures contracts showed strong - side oscillations. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will have wide - range oscillations, and on August 26, the main contracts of gold and silver futures will have strong - side and wide - range oscillations respectively [45][52][53]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On August 25, the copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, and nickel futures contracts showed different degrees of upward oscillations. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these base - metal futures will have wide - range oscillations, and on August 26, the main contracts will show different trends such as oscillation consolidation, weak - side oscillations, etc. [58][62][70]. - **Industrial Product Futures**: On August 25, the industrial - silicon, polysilicon, lithium - carbonate, steel - rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron - ore, coking - coal, glass, soda - ash, crude - oil, PVC, and soybean - meal futures contracts showed different trends. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these industrial - product futures will have wide - range oscillations or strong - side/weak - side oscillations, and on August 26, the main contracts will show corresponding trends [79][83][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 18, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes promoting the healthy and high - quality development of the private economy [8]. - China's economic data for July shows that industrial added - value and consumer spending increased year - on - year, while real estate investment declined [8]. - National housing price data in July shows that prices in most cities decreased month - on - month, and the number of cities with rising prices decreased [9]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote a reasonable rise in prices [10]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is promoting a "penetrating" supervision system [10]. - China sues Canada at the WTO over import restrictions on steel products [10]. - The upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday will have an 8 - day holiday, and tolls for small passenger cars will be waived [11]. - Hong Kong's financial secretary believes that the economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities [12]. - KPMG China believes that the central government has room to increase fiscal spending, and policies may be re - arranged in the fourth quarter [12]. - Trump has no plan to impose tariffs on Chinese products due to China's purchase of Russian oil [12]. - Trump and Putin met in Alaska, and significant progress was made in the Russia - Ukraine issue [13]. - The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and plans to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors [15]. - The US trade negotiation representative cancelled the trip to India, and the hope of reaching an agreement before the deadline was dashed [15]. - Some Fed officials are hesitant about interest rate cuts due to inflation data and tariff uncertainties [15]. - US retail sales increased in July, but consumer confidence declined in August [15][16]. - China's soybean imports are mainly from South America during the peak export season [17]. - Japan's GDP grew in the second quarter [17]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options, as well as fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp options [17]. - On the night of August 15, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with palm oil, coking coal, and other products leading the gains [18]. - The global physical gold ETF had an inflow of $3.2 billion in July, and the total asset management scale reached a record high [20]. - On August 15, international precious metal futures, crude oil futures, and some base metal futures closed lower, while agricultural product futures on the CBOT closed higher [20][21][22]. - China's foreign exchange market was stable in July, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [22][23]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different trends, with most of them rising. It is expected that on August 18, stock index futures will show a strong and volatile trend [23][24][25]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures declined. It is expected that on August 18, they will show a weak and volatile trend [50][54]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. It is expected that on August 18, gold futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and silver futures will show a volatile and consolidating trend [56][62]. Base Metal Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 18, copper futures will show a volatile and consolidating trend, aluminum futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and alumina futures will show a strong and volatile trend [67][73][78]. Energy Futures - On August 15, the main contract of crude oil futures rose slightly. It is expected that on August 18, it will show a weak and volatile trend [118]. Agricultural Product Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of most agricultural product futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 18, most of them will show a strong and volatile trend, while natural rubber futures will show a weak and volatile trend [129][131][142].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the July 2, 2025, futures market trends, including the likely performance of various futures contracts such as stock index futures, bond futures, and commodity futures [2]. - It also presents the expected trends for these futures in July 2025, offering resistance and support levels [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 2, 2025, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3904 and 3931 points and support at 3867 and 3852 points [2]. - **Bond Futures**: Ten - year and thirty - year bond futures are likely to have a relatively strong oscillation on July 2, 2025. For instance, the T2509 ten - year bond futures contract has resistance at 109.06 and 109.12 yuan and support at 108.92 and 108.88 yuan [3]. - **Commodity Futures**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, while silver futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation on July 2, 2025 [3]. - **Base Metals**: Copper and aluminum futures may have a relatively strong oscillation, while zinc and industrial silicon futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation [3][4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while fuel oil, PTA, and other futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation [3][5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Bean meal futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation [7]. Macro Information and Trading Tips - Central Financial and Economic Commission held its sixth meeting to discuss issues such as the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [8]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June reached 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, returning above the critical point [8]. - From January to May, the added value of large - scale light industry increased by 7% year - on - year, and the retail sales of furniture and household appliances increased significantly [8]. - From January to May, large - scale Internet companies' business revenue increased by 0.9% year - on - year, while their total profit decreased by 2.2% [8]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the performance of various stock index futures contracts was mixed, with some showing weak rebounds and some showing slight declines. The expected trend in July 2025 is a relatively strong oscillation [14][15][18]. - **Bond Futures**: On July 1, 2025, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 1310 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rates declined [34]. - **Commodity Futures**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver futures showed rebounds on July 1, 2025. The expected trend in July 2025 is a wide - range oscillation for gold and a relatively strong wide - range oscillation for silver [44][50]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures had different performances on July 1, 2025. The expected trend in July 2025 is a relatively strong wide - range oscillation for most of them [52][57]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil futures showed a slight rebound on July 1, 2025. The expected trend in July 2025 is a relatively strong wide - range oscillation [89]. - **Agricultural Products**: Bean meal futures had a weak rebound on July 1, 2025, and are expected to have a relatively weak oscillation on July 2, 2025 [103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's (May 15, 2025) futures main contracts. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while gold, silver, crude oil, glass, soda ash, and PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly. Alumina, PVC, styrene futures, and container shipping index (European line) futures are predicted to oscillate strongly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are expected to oscillate strongly. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 main contracts are likely to oscillate widely [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, rebar, hot - rolled coils, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and crude oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Aluminum, alumina, zinc, iron ore, PVC, styrene, and container shipping index (European line) futures are likely to oscillate strongly [2][3][4][6]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - **Tariff Measures**: China's counter - measures against US fentanyl tariffs remain effective. The US has adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, canceling 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. The US has also adjusted the ad - valorem tax rate for small Chinese parcels and canceled a planned increase in the specific tax [7]. - **Monetary Policy**: China's central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points for most financial institutions and 5 percentage points for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market [8]. - **Other Policies**: Seven departments have jointly issued policies to promote science and technology finance. The National Development and Reform Commission has held a symposium for private enterprises, and the State Council has issued a legislative work plan [9]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On May 14, international precious metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 2.07% to $3180.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.15% to $32.39 per ounce [11]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices weakened on May 14. US crude oil futures fell 1.23% to $62.89 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.23% to $65.81 per barrel [11]. - **Other Commodities**: Domestic commodity futures had mixed results on May 14. Energy and chemical products generally rose, while base metals mostly closed higher. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly, and the US dollar index rose slightly [12][13]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On May 14, index futures showed strong performance. A - shares also rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3400 points. The market has rumors about account verification and fund positions, and insurance funds are expected to increase their allocation of CSI A500 index components [13][14][15][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 14, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board. The ten - year and thirty - year main contracts are expected to oscillate widely on May 15 [37][42]. - **Commodity Futures**: Each commodity futures contract's performance on May 14 is analyzed, and the trend for May 15 is predicted, including resistance and support levels [43][49][53] etc.