多品牌国际化
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安踏体育(02020):主品牌短期减速,中期看好公司多品牌国际化的竞争力
Orient Securities· 2026-01-21 09:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 113.00 HKD for 2026, based on a 20x PE valuation [3][5]. Core Insights - The main brand of the company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure, but the mid-term outlook remains positive due to the company's multi-brand internationalization strategy [2][9]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting earnings per share of 4.71, 5.09, and 5.70 RMB respectively, slightly down from previous estimates [3][10]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the competitive landscape of the mass sports sector, but new store formats and product iterations are anticipated to support stable growth in the mid-term [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 62,356 in 2023 to 92,805 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates decreasing from 16.2% in 2023 to 8.8% in 2027 [4]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 15,367 million RMB in 2023 to 21,369 million RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023, tapering to 10.6% by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million RMB in 2023 to 15,931 million RMB in 2027, with a significant increase of 52.4% in 2024, followed by a decline of 15.5% in 2025 [4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 62% over the forecast period, while net margin is projected to fluctuate between 16.4% and 22.0% [4][12]. Brand Performance Insights - The main brand is under pressure in the short term, but is expected to stabilize in the mid-term due to improvements in e-commerce and new store formats [9]. - The Fila brand showed improvement in Q4 and is expected to maintain steady growth starting in 2026 due to recent brand and product optimizations [9]. - Other brands, particularly Descente and KOLON, have shown strong growth, with revenue increasing by 35%-40% year-on-year in Q4, and are expected to continue outperforming the overall sportswear industry [9].
安踏体育(02020):上半年表现优良,持续看好多品牌国际化能力
Orient Securities· 2025-08-28 08:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, achieving a revenue growth of 14.3% despite a relatively weak domestic consumption environment [9]. - The operating profit margin has improved by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to refined operations and increased contributions from high-margin brands [9]. - The main brands, Anta and Fila, are expected to maintain steady growth, while other brands like Descente and Kolon are projected to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to overall revenue [9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 4.80, 5.54, and 6.21 RMB respectively, with a target price of 135.86 HKD based on a 26x PE valuation for 2025 [4][10]. - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 62,356 million RMB in 2023, growing to 97,528 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 10,236 million RMB in 2023, with a forecasted increase to 17,427 million RMB by 2027 [4][12]. Company Performance Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 62.6% in 2023, with projections indicating a slight decline to 62.5% by 2027 [4][12]. - The net profit margin is expected to fluctuate from 16.4% in 2023 to 17.9% in 2027, reflecting stable profitability [4][12]. - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 18.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027, indicating a slight reduction in efficiency over the forecast period [4][12].