Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" [4] Core Views - Anta Sports plans to acquire 29.06% of PUMA SE shares at a cash price of €35 per share, representing a 62% premium over PUMA's previous closing price, with a total transaction value of €1.506 billion (approximately ¥12.278 billion) [1] - The acquisition aims to enhance Anta's brand matrix and strengthen its global presence, particularly in markets where PUMA has significant influence, such as Europe, Latin America, Africa, and India [1] - PUMA is currently experiencing a performance downturn, with a projected revenue decline of low double digits for the full year 2025, and a reported EBIT loss of €10.7 million for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for PUMA is positive due to its strong brand assets and global influence, with expectations for performance improvement post-acquisition [2] Financial Performance Summary - Anta's main brand experienced slight fluctuations in performance due to a weak consumer environment, with Q4 revenue declining in low single digits, while Fila and other brands showed strong growth [3] - For 2025, Anta expects a revenue growth of 10.9% to ¥78.564 billion and a net profit of approximately ¥13.2 billion, reflecting an 11% increase compared to 2024 [3] - The company anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% for 2026, with a slight decrease in net profit margin [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2025: ¥78.564 billion - 2026: ¥87.019 billion - 2027: ¥96.465 billion [9] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2025: ¥13.194 billion - 2026: ¥14.035 billion - 2027: ¥15.937 billion [9] - The expected P/E ratio for 2026 is 14 times [8]

多品牌全球化布局依然是长期增长动力：长期来看，安踏与Fila 两大品牌的收入已达到较大的规模，未 来持续增长空间有限，而作为户外小众赛道品牌，Descente 的收入规模也已超过人民币100 亿元，未来 或较难维持高速增长的趋势。我们认为，安踏长期的业绩增长更多依赖于公司持续丰富品牌矩阵，通过 对新品牌的战略调整及运营效率提升，从而实现业绩反转与品牌复兴。因此，市场不应过分关注收购对 公司短期业绩带来的负面影响，而应该聚焦新品牌对公司长期全球化布局的战略意义以及对公司长期财 务模型改善的可能性。 下调2026/2027 年盈利预测，短期股价压力不改长期增长逻辑：我们维持对公司2025 年的收入与利润预 测不变，但基于管理层对2026年较弱的利润率指引，我们适度下调了2026 年净利润预期。尽管安踏股 价短期仍将面临较弱的市场情绪，但我们有信心公司持续的多品牌全球化的布局将在长期驱动集团销售 与利润规模的扩张。维持"买入"评级。 两大主力品牌4Q25 流水表现"冰火两重天"：安踏品牌4Q25 零售流水录得同比低单位数下滑（下滑幅度 不到1%），主要是受到12 月整体行业需求疲软以及气温较暖的影响。公司对安踏品牌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 97.3, representing a potential upside of 17.8% from the current price of HKD 82.6 [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the performance of the two main brands, Anta and Fila, in Q4 2025 showed contrasting results, with Anta experiencing a slight decline in retail sales while Fila saw growth due to strategic adjustments by the new management [1][2]. - The long-term growth of the company is expected to rely on its multi-brand globalization strategy, despite short-term pressures on profit margins in 2026 [3][2]. - The report emphasizes that while the market sentiment may remain weak in the short term, the company's ongoing efforts in brand diversification and global expansion are likely to drive sales and profit growth in the long run [3][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Anta's revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 62,356 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.2%. The revenue is expected to reach RMB 79,961 million in 2025, growing at 12.9% [10]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 10,236 million, with a significant increase of 34.9% compared to the previous year. However, a decline of 15.9% is anticipated for 2026, with a recovery expected in 2027 [10][12]. - The operating profit margin is projected to decrease from 24.6% in 2023 to 22.8% in 2025, reflecting the anticipated pressures on profitability [12]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail sales in Q4 2025 recorded a slight decline of less than 1% year-on-year, while Fila's sales grew in the mid-single digits, attributed to effective management strategies [1][2]. - Other brands under the company are expected to maintain high double-digit growth in 2026, although at a slower pace compared to 2025 [2][3]. Market Strategy - The company plans to enhance its market investment in 2026, coinciding with major events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games, which is expected to support brand visibility and sales [2]. - The report suggests that the market should focus on the strategic significance of new brand acquisitions for long-term growth rather than short-term performance impacts [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - Short-term negative sentiment may persist, but there is optimism about the long-term development trend of the brand globalization [3] - The performance of the two main brands, Anta and Fila, shows contrasting results in Q4 2025, with Anta experiencing a slight decline in retail revenue while Fila saw growth [1][2] - The company is expected to face pressure on profit margins in 2026, influenced by various factors including increased market investment and potential losses from acquisitions [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Anta's retail revenue in Q4 2025 recorded a year-on-year decline of less than 1%, primarily due to weak industry demand and warmer weather [1] - Fila's revenue in Q4 2025 grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, accelerating compared to the previous quarter [1] - Other brands experienced a revenue growth of 35-40% in Q4 2025, with Descente growing by 25-30% and Kolon by 50-55% [1] Future Projections - The management aims for Anta's revenue to achieve positive growth in 2026, supported by adjustments in online operations and store renovations [2] - Fila's operational adjustments are expected to maintain its revenue growth momentum in 2026, while other brands are projected to sustain high double-digit growth, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025 [2] - The company plans to increase marketing investments in 2026, coinciding with major events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games [2] Financial Estimates - The report maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 but has slightly lowered the net profit expectations for 2026 due to anticipated weaker profit margins [3] - The projected revenue for 2026 is RMB 88.553 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 14.361 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [10][16] - The company's profit margin is expected to face significant pressure in 2026 due to various factors, including potential losses from acquisitions [2][3]

Group 1 - Anta Sports Products Limited (2020.HK) reported a low single-digit negative growth in retail value for the Anta brand in Q4, but achieved a low single-digit positive growth in retail sales for the entire year [2] - The Fila brand recorded a mid single-digit positive growth in retail sales year-on-year for Q4 and also for the full year [2] - Other brand segments, including Descente and Kolon Sport, experienced a retail sales growth of 35% to 40% in Q4, with an annual growth of approximately 45% to 50% [2] Group 2 - Anta's stock opened lower on Wednesday, trading at HKD 77.80, down 5.75%, with a cumulative decline of over 16% in the past six months [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 113.00 HKD for 2026, based on a 20x PE valuation [3][5]. Core Insights - The main brand of the company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure, but the mid-term outlook remains positive due to the company's multi-brand internationalization strategy [2][9]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting earnings per share of 4.71, 5.09, and 5.70 RMB respectively, slightly down from previous estimates [3][10]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the competitive landscape of the mass sports sector, but new store formats and product iterations are anticipated to support stable growth in the mid-term [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 62,356 in 2023 to 92,805 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates decreasing from 16.2% in 2023 to 8.8% in 2027 [4]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 15,367 million RMB in 2023 to 21,369 million RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023, tapering to 10.6% by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million RMB in 2023 to 15,931 million RMB in 2027, with a significant increase of 52.4% in 2024, followed by a decline of 15.5% in 2025 [4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 62% over the forecast period, while net margin is projected to fluctuate between 16.4% and 22.0% [4][12]. Brand Performance Insights - The main brand is under pressure in the short term, but is expected to stabilize in the mid-term due to improvements in e-commerce and new store formats [9]. - The Fila brand showed improvement in Q4 and is expected to maintain steady growth starting in 2026 due to recent brand and product optimizations [9]. - Other brands, particularly Descente and KOLON, have shown strong growth, with revenue increasing by 35%-40% year-on-year in Q4, and are expected to continue outperforming the overall sportswear industry [9].

花旗发布研报称，安踏体育(02020)在2025年零售销售表现符合市场预期。第四季度，Fila品牌及其他品 牌的增长表现略胜预期。花旗重申对安踏的"买入"评级，并将目标价定为112.7港元，认为公司当前估 值具吸引力。 该行指出，2025年第四季度Fila零售销售同比录得中个位数增长，全年增长符合市场预期。Fila的Classic 业务在第四季度增长高个位数，而Kids和Fusion分别录得低个位数增长。其他品牌方面，第四季度零售 销售同比增长35%至40%，全年增长达45%至50%，超出40%以上的指引。 整体而言，Fila和其他品牌的表现超预期，而安踏主品牌受暖冬影响销售有所放缓。花旗指出，安踏管 理层对2026年的展望表现出谨慎务实的态度，并将重点放在健康的库存管理和零售折扣控制。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports has proposed to acquire a 29% stake in the German sports brand Puma from the Pinault family, which could significantly enhance its global expansion strategy if the deal is successful [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Anta has approached the largest shareholder of Puma, the Pinault family, to purchase their 29% stake, which would further expand Anta's portfolio of international brands [2][4]. - The acquisition aligns with Anta's long-term strategy of expanding its brand portfolio through mergers and acquisitions, as evidenced by previous successful transactions [3][6]. - Anta's interest in Puma has been rumored since November last year, indicating a strategic move towards global brand acquisition [4][6]. Group 2: Financial and Market Context - Anta's recent acquisition of the outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin for $290 million and its previous acquisition of Amer Sports, valued at €4.6 billion (approximately $5.36 billion), demonstrate its capability in handling large-scale acquisitions [6][7]. - Currently, Anta's main revenue source is the Chinese market, with its core brands, Anta and Fila, contributing 81% of total revenue of 38.5 billion yuan (approximately $5.5 billion) [7]. - The acquisition of Puma could help Anta reduce its reliance on the Chinese market and mitigate domestic economic pressures, especially as Puma operates in over 120 countries [8]. Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - The acquisition may face challenges related to valuation and regulatory scrutiny, with Artemis reportedly seeking a price of at least €40 per share, representing a premium of over 70% [10]. - There are concerns regarding the willingness of Artemis to sell control of Puma to a Chinese company, especially in the context of rising geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - Despite Puma's current operational challenges, including a significant drop in stock price over the past five years, this may present an opportunity for Anta to acquire the stake at a relatively low price [9][10]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - If successful, the acquisition would accelerate Anta's global ambitions and provide valuable experience in managing multinational operations, which would otherwise take decades to develop independently [8][12]. - Anta's understanding of the Chinese market and its resources could help Puma regain competitiveness in a challenging market environment [12]. - The market's reaction to the acquisition news has been mixed, with Anta's stock price declining due to concerns over financial burdens, while Puma's stock price rose, reflecting investor optimism about the potential deal [12].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has initiated a 30-day observation period for Anta, highlighting potential catalysts including the better-than-expected performance of its subsidiary Amer Sports last quarter and the upward revision of its 2025 full-year operating guidance [1] Group 1: Performance and Guidance - The direct impact of the Arc'teryx brand's September fireworks event is expected to be less than anticipated, with the indirect impact on the Anta brand likely to be milder than market expectations in the coming quarters [1] - Citigroup anticipates that Anta will achieve its full-year retail sales guidance, which includes low single-digit growth for the Anta brand, mid single-digit growth for the Fila brand, and a 40% growth for other brands [1] Group 2: Rating and Target Price - Citigroup has assigned a "Buy" rating to Anta, with a target price set at HKD 109.7 [1]

Core Insights - Anta Sports reported Q3 2025 operational results, with Anta brand revenue growth in low single digits, Fila brand revenue growth also in low single digits, and other brands experiencing revenue growth of 45% to 50%, overall performance in line with expectations [1][2]. Anta Brand - In Q3 2025, Anta brand revenue growth was in low single digits, indicating a healthy operational quality despite a volatile domestic consumption environment and ongoing brand adjustments [1]. - The company is optimizing its offline store structure and enhancing adjustments for franchise stores in lower-tier cities, while also restructuring its e-commerce operations, which may temporarily impact e-commerce sales [1]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the inventory-to-sales ratio for Anta brand is slightly above 5, with stable discounts in offline stores, reflecting a healthy operational level [1]. Fila Brand - Fila brand revenue growth in Q3 2025 was also in low single digits, affected by high temperatures and fluctuations in the consumption environment impacting autumn and winter apparel sales [2]. - E-commerce sales for Fila are expected to significantly outperform offline sales, with the brand's operational capabilities in e-commerce being strong [2]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for Fila is projected to be around 6 by the end of Q3 2025, with an increase due to preparations for the National Day holiday and major sales events [2]. - Fila is expected to leverage the Q4 sales peak to drive brand growth, with a projected revenue growth in mid-single digits for 2025 [2]. - A new tennis strategy was announced in September 2025, highlighting collaborations with notable tennis players and institutions, indicating a clear development plan for the sport [2]. Other Brands - Other brands under Anta Sports experienced a revenue growth rate of 45% to 50%, showcasing the company's strong new brand incubation capabilities [2]. - Brands like Descente and Kolon are growing rapidly due to improved product strength and store operational capabilities [2]. - Maia Active is also expected to show excellent growth performance in Q3 2025 following successful adjustments [2]. Financial Outlook - For 2025, the company anticipates a revenue growth of 10%, with a projected revenue of 78.181 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 9% year-on-year, reaching 13 billion yuan [3]. - The outdoor brands Descente and Kolon are expected to maintain strong growth rates [3]. - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with net profits projected at 13.03 billion, 14.78 billion, and 16.74 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17 times for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].