安踏似乎也成为了这样的中年人。 三十多年风雨兼程，安踏从晋江起步，靠着一股爱拼才会赢的狠劲，一路逆袭成全球体育圈的豪门贵公 子。谁能想到，如今手握一堆国际大牌的安踏，早年竟是个不折不扣的"小镇做题家"。 但丁在《神曲》中曾写道："我在人生旅程的半途醒转，发觉置身于一个黑森林里面，林中正确的道路 消失中断。" 多年后，心理学家埃里奥特·杰奎斯（Elliott Jaques）将这份对人生中途的迷茫具象化，提出了"中年危 机"的概念。 人在走过热烈张扬的青年岁月后，步入中年往往会陷入一种莫名的停滞与失衡，一边是对过往人生的复 盘与叩问，一边是对未来前路的迷茫与彷徨。 2009年，安踏大胆拿下FILA中国区运营权，彼时没人看好这个濒临退出中国市场的意大利品牌，可安 踏却硬生生将其盘活；随后，韩国户外品牌可隆、德国户外品牌狼爪相继被纳入麾下；2019年，安踏更 是甩出约360亿人民币的高价，将芬兰亚玛芬体育收入囊中，一举将始祖鸟、萨洛蒙这些顶流品牌收至 麾下，搭建起一个覆盖专业体育、时尚运动、高端户外的品牌矩阵。 靠着这套组合拳，安踏完成了华丽蜕变，逆袭成为全球第三大体育用品集团、首个跻身全球体育巨头行 列的中国品牌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Anta's Q3 2025 operational data shows stable performance for its main brands, with outdoor brands continuing strong growth despite a weakening retail environment [1][2][3] Group 1: Brand Performance - Anta and FILA brands both experienced low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, indicating stable performance [1] - Other brands saw a significant growth of 45-50%, maintaining strong momentum [1] - FILA's Q3 2025 revenue growth was low single digits, impacted by delayed sales of autumn and winter products, but still outperformed the industry average [2] Group 2: Operational Metrics - Anta's inventory-to-sales ratio is slightly above 5 months, indicating a healthy range [1] - FILA's inventory-to-sales ratio is approximately 6 months due to increased seasonal stocking, expected to return to 5-6 months by year-end [2] - Anta's operating profit margin is maintained in the range of 20%-25%, while FILA's is around 25% [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Anta is advancing new business formats, with the Anta Champion Store achieving over 100% completion rate and plans for accelerated development in 2026 [1] - FILA has launched a tennis strategy, signing a top Chinese tennis player as a spokesperson and becoming the exclusive sponsor of the China Open [2] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, aiming to open approximately 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia within three years [3] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company has slightly lowered its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 13.22 billion, 14.66 billion, and 15.92 billion yuan respectively [4] - The anticipated profit growth for 2025 is 11% when excluding a one-time gain from Amer Sports [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its unique multi-brand matrix with significant growth potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 113.6, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HKD 92.45 [6]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, slightly below expectations, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth. Other brands saw significant growth of 50-55% [2][3]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin, a German outdoor brand, for USD 290 million, which is expected to enhance its presence in the outdoor market in China [3]. - The financial projections for EPS from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 4.72, RMB 5.26, and RMB 5.88 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory despite some fluctuations in profit margins [4][3]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with children's products performing better than bulk items. The overall H1 performance showed mid-single-digit growth [2]. - FILA's Q2 2025 revenue growth was in the mid-single digits, aligning with expectations, while other brands, including Descente and KOLON, reported over 40% and 70% growth respectively [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62.36 billion in 2023 to RMB 92.97 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.8% [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 13.25 billion, reflecting a decrease of 15% compared to 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a 2025 PE ratio of 22 times, based on industry averages and brand premium considerations, supporting the target price of HKD 113.6 [3][4]. - The projected gross margin remains stable around 62%, with net profit margins expected to fluctuate between 16.9% and 17.8% over the forecast period [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group aims to replicate the success of its high-end outdoor brand Arc'teryx with the newly acquired German outdoor brand JACK WOLFSKIN, indicating a strategic ambition to cover all price segments in the outdoor market [2][12]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Anta appointed Yao Jian as the global president of JACK WOLFSKIN, effective July 1, following the acquisition completed on May 31, showcasing Anta's high integration efficiency [2][8]. - Yao Jian has extensive experience in the outdoor sports sector, having previously held significant positions at Nike and Amer Sports, which positions him well to enhance JACK WOLFSKIN's brand recognition and market positioning [3][4]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Anta's acquisition of JACK WOLFSKIN for approximately $290 million (around 2.9 billion RMB) comes at a time when the brand is facing challenges, with projected revenues of only €325 million (less than 3 billion RMB) for the 2025 fiscal year [8][12]. - The outdoor market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a reported market size of 248 billion RMB in 2022, expected to exceed 400 billion RMB by 2025, indicating a lucrative opportunity for Anta [10][12]. Group 3: Brand Matrix and Future Prospects - Anta has established a comprehensive outdoor brand matrix, covering high-end, mid-range, and mass-market segments, which includes brands like Arc'teryx, Salomon, and now JACK WOLFSKIN [12][14]. - The successful revitalization of JACK WOLFSKIN could enhance Anta's competitive position globally, as the brand has a presence in Europe with 226 exclusive stores and thousands of retail points [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Anta Sports [3][10] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Anta's main brand and FILA both experienced high single-digit growth, while other brands saw growth between 65% and 70%. The company is deepening online discounts and has a relatively healthy inventory situation [1][2][10] - Anta plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin for $290 million to enhance its outdoor brand portfolio, which is expected to be completed by the end of Q2 or early Q3 2025 [6][10] - The projected net profits for Anta from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 13.43 billion, 15.51 billion, and 17.15 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -14%, 15%, and 11% respectively, excluding one-time gains from the Amer acquisition [1][10] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 77.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10%. The company expects to achieve revenues of 85.45 billion yuan in 2026 and 92.97 billion yuan in 2027 [8][10] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 16x for 2025 and 14x for 2026 [10] - As of the end of Q1 2025, Anta's inventory turnover ratio is less than 5, indicating effective inventory management [6][10] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand saw high single-digit growth in Q1 2025, with children's products also performing well. The overall online sales for the brand experienced low double-digit growth [1][11] - FILA's sales in Q1 2025 showed high single-digit growth, with children's products growing at a low double-digit rate and the FILA Fusion line achieving high double-digit growth [2][11] - Other brands under Anta, such as Descente and KOLON, reported significant growth rates of 60% and 100% respectively in Q1 2025 [2][11]