| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 3 | | | 4 | | | 7 | | | 8 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | 有色板块研发报告 多晶硅 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 恐有回调风险，但远期向上方向不变 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 10 页 多晶硅 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 第二部分 基本面情况 图 1：多晶硅期货 2511 合约价格走势 表 1：多晶硅产业链现货价格变动情况 | | 日期 | | | | 9月26日 9月25日 9月24日 9月23日 9月22日 较7月末 较8月末 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多晶硅现货价格（元/kg） | N型致密料- 平均价 | 51.05 | 51.05 | 5 1 | 51.15 | 51.15 | 12.20% | 6.35% | | | N型颗粒硅 - 平均价 | 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of industrial silicon and polysilicon prices is insufficient. The industrial silicon market may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, and the polysilicon market may experience short - term adjustments [1]. Summaries by Related Content Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.68% to 9,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.58% to 9,650 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 0.57% to 8,695 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon: N - type dense material decreased by 2.20% to 44.5 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material decreased by 1.60% to 46 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material decreased by 1.14% to 43.5 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 43 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 4.05% to 43,850 yuan/ton [1]. - Other products: Some silicon wafer prices decreased significantly, while battery and component prices remained mostly unchanged. Organic silicon prices showed slight changes, with DMC increasing by 0.46% to 10,850 yuan/ton [1]. Market Fundamentals - Industrial silicon supply: Northern large - scale factories have production cuts with no resumption news, and the southwest production area is about to enter the wet season with a slow resumption of production. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the supply may decrease [1]. - Industrial silicon demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, with some planned to resume production in July. The organic silicon industry has strong intentions to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - Polysilicon supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cuts, with some new capacity to be put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, approaching 110,000 tons in July [1]. - Polysilicon demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Although the trading atmosphere has improved, the terminal market is still weak due to the over - drawn demand in the first half of the year [1]. Industry News - Shanxi Province Energy Bureau plans to abolish 352,052 kilowatts of new energy projects, including photovoltaic and wind power projects, to optimize grid access and resource allocation [1]. - Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission abolished 449.3 MW of new energy projects in 9 projects to optimize resource allocation and improve project construction quality and efficiency [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the demand side is under great pressure. The supply side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the production enthusiasm is frustrated. The demand side is relatively weak, with the downstream photovoltaic module production schedule being adjusted down, the silicon wafer enterprise self - discipline quota being reduced, and the terminal market showing strong wait - and - see sentiment. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing the market price. Long - term operations should still focus on short - selling [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 35,055 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 695 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 67,873 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,727 lots. The price difference between the June - July contracts is 1,940 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 145 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,775 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 485 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 US dollars/kg [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan/ton; the spot price is 8,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36,050 tons; the total social inventory is 582,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,952 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,516,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,583,800 pieces; the monthly import volume is 20,120,440 pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 10,274,320 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/piece, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - As of June 4, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, N - type re - feeding polysilicon, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are all stable. The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce has initiated an initiative to resist "involution - style" competition in the form of "price war". In the polysilicon market, the supply side is operating at reduced loads, and the demand side is weak [3].

前下游采购乏力，库存消化速度减缓，部分厂家面临较大的出货难题 。技术面上冲高回路，但成交量并未 下滑，高位换手，情绪面并没有打破，短期未能冲破20日均线压力位，后续预计还有部分上行动能，但是 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 警惕上方41000高压位置，操作上建议，多晶硅暂时观望 免责声明 多晶硅产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 38420 | 150 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 44692 | -7560 | | | 06-07月合约价差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1240 | -490 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 29930 | -110 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 40500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30.5 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Polysilicon Industry Daily Report 2025-05-13 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply has significantly declined due to over half of the enterprises in the industry conducting equipment maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia [3]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment among wafer - pulling enterprises and low procurement willingness. Downstream enterprises expect the silicon material price to fall in the long term and plan to replenish inventory after the price stabilizes [3]. - The polysilicon industry still faces high inventory pressure, mainly concentrated in polysilicon manufacturers. Weak downstream procurement has slowed down inventory digestion, and some manufacturers face difficulties in shipping [3]. - Technically, it has broken through the pressure of the 60 - day moving average, and there may be high pressure around the integer mark of 40,000. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 38,270 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 52,252 lots, down 15,252 lots [3]. - The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 1,730 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 30,040 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 35 yuan/kg, unchanged [3]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.34 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars/kg; the basis of polysilicon is 2,050 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan/ton [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,230 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3]. - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons [3]. - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 596,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 2,906 tons, down 222 tons [3]. - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78.444 million kilowatts, up 11.443 million kilowatts [3]. - The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, up 24,038,530 pieces; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 pieces, down 2,122,260 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/piece, up 0.01 US dollars/piece [3]. - The comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 22.91, down 0.62 [3] 6. Industry News - As of May 13, the mainstream market price of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon is 32 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type dense - type polysilicon is 35.5 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 39 yuan/kg, and the mainstream market price of N - type granular silicon is 37 yuan/kg, all of which are temporarily stable [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a round - table meeting for foreign - trade enterprises to relieve difficulties and provide more support [3] 7. Key Focus - There is no news today [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain weak in the short - term, ranging from 8,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level due to delivery factors and production cut news. In the short - term, the price fluctuation will intensify, and if the contradiction between "high positions and low warehouse receipts" is not alleviated, a long position can be considered for the 06 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 10,050 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.32% to 8,205 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - In April, due to production cuts by some silicon enterprises in Xinjiang, the overall industrial silicon output decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, affected by the resumption of production in the southwest production area during the flat - water period and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the output is expected to increase steadily, but the increase is limited [1]. Demand - Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The domestic monomer enterprises' operating rates increase and decrease, and it is expected to drop below 55% in May. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon Price - N - type dense material remained flat at 38 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feedstock price remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg; the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.38% to 37,830 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. The output is expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. Demand - The strong installation period is basically over, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells and components have continued to decline, the market demand has slowed down, and some component delivery prices are close to new lows, with weak market transactions [1]. Other Information - On May 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 596,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse was 133,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 463,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - On May 6, the Natural Resources Bureau of Wuhai City released the design plan for the first - phase of Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology Co., Ltd.'s industrial silicon project. The project investment is 1.495 billion yuan, and the construction scale is a 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project [1].