[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《深海科技趋势下的化工蓝海！》， 2025.7.7 2.《政策持续发力"反内卷"，产能过 剩 行 业 迎 结 构 性 改 善 契 机 》， 2025.7.7 3.《——光引发剂更新②-PCB 需求 复苏+行业集中度提升，光引发剂协 同行情或水到渠成》，2025.7.3 4.《供需关系存在改善预期，光引发 剂景气有望修复》，2025.6.30 5.《SAF 价格持续回升，光引发剂景 气有望修复》，2025.6.30 有机硅更新：陶氏将关闭英国工 厂，有机硅产能有力出清 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 王友舜 建议关注：合盛硅业、新安股份、兴发集团、东岳硅材、三友化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory pressure, and silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, with limited downward space [1] - The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and prices are expected to have no upward trend in the short term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market - **Price Information**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price was flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.34% to 7,370 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the wet season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, resulting in a decrease in overall production [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand was weak. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1] Polysilicon Market - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material was flat at 32.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price rose 1.85% to 34,320 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, and some new production capacity might be put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output but still within 100,000 tons [1] - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1] Other Market Information - **Automobile Industry**: In May 2025, passenger car production and sales were 2.313 million and 2.352 million units respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 5.8%, and year - on - year increases of 12.8% and 13.3%. From January to May, production and sales were 11.08 million and 10.996 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 14.1% and 12.6% [1] - **Organic Silicon Market**: The domestic organic silicon DMC market's trading center continued to decline, and it was expected to decline slightly further. The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil changed, with DMC down 1.83% to 10,750 yuan/ton and 107 glue down 0.41% to 12,050 yuan/ton [1] - **New Energy Industry**: From January to May, the production of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 40.8% and 18.3% respectively. The power generation of wind and solar energy in large - scale industries increased by 11.1% and 18.3% respectively [1]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 点评 11 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 34255 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.72%，持 仓减仓 2509 手至 60199 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格持稳在 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 2245 元 /吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 7560 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.23%，持 仓减仓 8591 手至 14.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8750 元/吨，较上一 交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升水收至 125 元/吨。西南丰水电价全面下调，叠加硅煤和电极不断下移，工业硅成本 重心持续回调，硅厂丰水季开工水平压产到极限，需求端变量不多，工业 硅短期止跌。多晶硅延续全面降负荷，后续仍有行业自律扩大限产额度可 能。新一轮签单落地，量级有限且现货交易角度引导低品相对高品更抗 跌。多晶硅延续弱势。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250605：市场信心较差工业硅价格持续下探，多晶硅低位整理 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/5 近期趋势 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,100.00 | -0.61% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 7,280.00 | 2.97% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 820.00 | -260.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 35.50 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 35,055.00 445.00 | 2.02% -695.00 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,100.00 | -0.61% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 8,150.00 | -0.6 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250512：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅波动加剧 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/12 今值 变动 | 指标 | 单位 | | | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,050.00 | 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,205.00 | -1.32% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 845.00 | 110.00 | | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 38.00 | 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 37,830.00 170.00 | 2.38% -880.00 | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,050.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,150.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价 ...