Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have rebounded above 700 yuan per ton, with a peak of 706 yuan per ton observed recently. The demand for non-electric coal is expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months [3][4] - The report emphasizes that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery due to supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand shifts [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with prices expected to recover to long-term contract prices. The current price has surpassed the second target price, which is around 700 yuan per ton. Future expectations suggest a potential recovery to a third target price of approximately 750 yuan per ton by 2025, with a fourth target price around 860 yuan per ton [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio indicates target prices for coking coal at 1608 yuan, 1680 yuan, 1800 yuan, and 2064 yuan corresponding to thermal coal's target prices [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for rebound, supported by supply-side policies and seasonal demand expectations [5][14] - Four main lines of coal stock selection are recommended: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 1.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.49, and the PB ratio is 1.26, ranking low among all A-share industries [8][30][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that coal prices have rebounded at the long-term contract benchmark of 675 CNY/ton, with a stable layout in the coal sector [1][13] - The report highlights that the current prices for thermal coal and coking coal have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery [4][13] - The report emphasizes the dual logic of cyclical elasticity and stable dividends in coal stocks, suggesting that the current low holdings in coal provide a good opportunity for investment [5][14] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with prices expected to rebound to the long-term contract price, currently above the second target price of around 700 CNY [4][13] - The report predicts that the thermal coal price will reach the third target price of approximately 750 CNY in 2025, with a potential peak at around 860 CNY [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with target prices set at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY corresponding to thermal coal price targets [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: Companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Companies like Shenhua Energy and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight increase of 0.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.05 percentage points [8][28] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.17, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market, while the PB ratio is 1.23 [28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the coal sector possesses both cyclical and dividend attributes, and the current low holdings in coal indicate that the fundamentals have reached a turning point, making it an opportune time for investment [1] - The report highlights four main investment themes in coal stocks: cyclical logic, dividend logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [1] Group 2 - In the thermal coal market, prices have slightly declined, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price at 679 RMB/ton as of September 5, down 11 RMB/ton or 1.59% from the previous period [2] - The report notes that the current coal market is in a transitional phase between summer and autumn, with non-electric coal demand expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months [2] - Factors supporting a rebound in coal prices include low operating rates and decreasing port inventories, with the operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 79.5%, down 0.4 percentage points [2] Group 3 - For coking coal, the price at the Jingtang Port is 1540 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July, while coking coal futures have increased by 61.2% from 719 RMB in June to the current price [3] - The report indicates that the supply side is tightening due to government measures to check overproduction, while demand is expected to be supported by projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station [3] Group 4 - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to rebound to long-term contract prices, currently above 700 RMB [4] - The report predicts that the future price of thermal coal could reach around 750 RMB by 2025, with a potential peak price around 860 RMB [4] - For coking coal, the target prices are set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, with potential target prices of 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB corresponding to different benchmarks [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The transition from thermal coal to non-thermal coal is expected to support coal prices, with a stable layout in the coal sector [12] - The current dynamics in the coal market indicate that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, suggesting potential price recovery [12] - The report highlights that the demand for non-thermal coal, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is anticipated to be a key driver for future price increases [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rebound to long-term contract prices, currently above the second target price of around 700 CNY per ton [4][12] - The forecast for thermal coal prices suggests a potential rise to 750 CNY per ton, which is seen as a profit-sharing point for coal and power generation companies [4][12] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY corresponding to thermal coal price targets [4][12] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment lines in the coal sector: 1. Cycle logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal Mining 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: New Energy and Guanghui Energy [5][13] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 0.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.12 percentage points [7][9] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.2, and the PB ratio is 1.23, ranking low among all A-share industries [27][32] - As of September 5, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 679 CNY per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.59% [19][31] Coking Coal Market - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is currently 1540 CNY per ton, down from 1610 CNY [20][22] - The report notes a significant rebound in coking coal futures prices, which have increased by 61.2% since June [4][12] Non-Thermal Coal Sector - The methanol operating rate is currently at 83.72%, indicating a slight increase, while the urea operating rate has decreased significantly [11][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of non-thermal coal demand, particularly from the coal chemical industry, as a stabilizing factor for coal prices [4][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are rebounding, aiming for a target of 750 CNY per ton, with a current price of 704 CNY per ton as of August 22, 2025, reflecting a 15.6% increase from the lowest price of 609 CNY per ton earlier this year [4][5] - The report emphasizes that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery [5][13] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Market - As of August 22, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 704 CNY/ton, with a 15.6% increase from the year's lowest price of 609 CNY/ton [4] - The operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.7%, indicating a relatively low supply level [4] - Port inventories have decreased by 29.82% from the highest level of 3,316.3 million tons earlier this year to 2,327.4 million tons [4] - The daily consumption of coal remains high during the summer, with the methanol operating rate at 80.65%, reflecting strong demand [4] Coking Coal Market - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1,610 CNY/ton, rebounding from a low of 1,230 CNY/ton in early July, with a significant increase of 61.61% in futures prices [4][5] - The report notes a tightening supply expectation due to regulatory measures on overproduction in coal mines [5] Investment Logic - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price has surpassed the second target price of around 700 CNY, with expectations to reach the third target price of 750 CNY, which is the breakeven point for coal and power generation companies [5][13] - Coking coal prices are expected to be influenced more by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][13] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment lines in the coal sector: 1. Cycle logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yancoal 2. Dividend logic: Companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Companies like Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][14]