Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The prices of soybean meal and soybeans in the domestic and international markets last week showed different trends, and the prices next week are expected to be mainly influenced by the USDA report. For soybean meal, if the report is bullish, the price is expected to rise; if it is neutral, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. For soybeans, besides the USDA report, the domestic reserve auction situation also needs to be concerned [1][2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Price Trends - In the week of January 5 - 9, the US soybean futures prices "fluctuated up and down with a slightly upward center of gravity", with the main March 03 contract of US soybeans rising 1.6% week - on - week and the main March 03 contract of US soybean meal rising 2.67% week - on - week. The domestic soybean meal futures prices oscillated strongly, and the soybean futures prices rose. The main m2605 contract of soybean meal rose 1.35% week - on - week, and the main a2605 contract of soybeans rose 3.23% week - on - week [1][2]. Influencing Factors of Domestic Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish factors include strong domestic market sentiment and the official announcement of an auction of about 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans on January 13. Bearish factors include the optimistic outlook for China - Canada trade and the decline in rapeseed meal prices [2]. - **Soybeans**: The main bullish factor is the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market. In addition, market rumors of "delayed state reserve auction" and strong domestic spot prices also provide support [2]. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **China's Purchases**: From January 5 - 9, the cumulative large - order sales of US soybeans to China were about 666,000 tons (for 2025/26 delivery), which has a moderately bullish impact [2]. - **USDA Export Sales Report**: In the week of January 1, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans decreased compared to the previous week, which has a moderately bearish impact. The export shipments of 2025/26 US soybeans were about 1.11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 9% and a year - on - year decrease of about 23%; the cumulative export shipments were about 16.35 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 45% [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of the week of January 9, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week, with a neutral impact [2]. - **South American Weather Forecast**: In the next two weeks (January 10 - 23), the precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas will vary, and the temperature will be "high first and then low, with little deviation from the average". The precipitation in the Argentine soybean - producing areas will be basically normal, and the temperature will be "initially low and then return to normal". Overall, the impact of weather problems in the producing areas is not significant, but it still needs attention [2]. Domestic Spot Market Conditions Soybean Meal - **Transaction Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, and the trading volume of far - month basis was relatively large. As of the week of January 9, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 310,000 tons, compared with about 200,000 tons in the previous week [3][5]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of January 9, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 174,000 tons, compared with about 182,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of January 9, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 344 yuan/ton, compared with about 356 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 275 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of January 2, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 1.06 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of about 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of about 74% [5]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased slightly week - on - week and is expected to rise next week. As of the week of January 9, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 1.77 million tons (1.75 million tons in the previous week and 1.93 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 49% (48% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (January 10 - 16), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.08 million tons (2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 57% (68% in the same period last year) [5]. Soybeans - **Price**: The soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some northeastern regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans increased by 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; in some inland regions, the purchase price remained the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the selling price of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [6]. - **Farmer Behavior**: Farmers in the northeastern producing areas were reluctant to sell, and the market was waiting for the auction. The remaining grain in the hands of grass - roots farmers was less than that of the same period last year, and the bullish sentiment was strong. The procurement of trading entities was slow, and they were waiting for the state reserve auction announcement with obvious wait - and - see sentiment [6]. - **Sales Area Situation**: The price increase in the sales areas was limited, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking. The price increase in the sales areas was smaller than that in the producing areas because there were some inventories in each link of the market, and the new demand for terminal soy products was limited [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the oil and meal industry is a weak and volatile trend [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The near - month contracts and spot prices of soymeal should focus on the pricing and transaction of the second batch of imported soybeans tomorrow. The far - month contracts are expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend under the expectation of a loose supply [2] - The overall trend of oils is weak and volatile. After the negative factors of palm oil and rapeseed oil are gradually realized, the market may enter a volatile state again. The upcoming US biofuel policy may provide some guidance [3] Summary by Related Content Soymeal - A private exporter reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [1] - As of December 11, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week but lower than 66% in the same period last year [1] - On December 12, the total transaction volume of soymeal at major oil mills across the country was 82,500 tons, a decrease of 68,400 tons from the previous trading day. Spot transactions were 25,000 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons, and far - month basis transactions were 57,500 tons, a decrease of 61,600 tons [1] - The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 58.33%, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous day. Soymeal inventory remained above 1.1 million tons, with a loose supply [1] - The pricing of the state - owned reserve soybean auction by Sinograin is the main factor determining the soybean crushing cost in the next quarter, and whether the auction price is close to the Brazilian import cost is the key to determining the spread between far - month and near - month contracts [1] Oils Palm Oil - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 were 280,048 tons, a 46.98% increase from 190,533 tons in the same period last month [2] - The export report in the first ten days showed an increase, which may provide short - term support for palm oil. However, it is difficult for palm oil to have a unilateral market in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to India's restocking demand [3] Rapeseed Oil - CGC data showed that as of the week ending December 7, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 81.9% to 289,200 tons from 159,000 tons in the previous week. From August 1 to December 7, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 2.3764 million tons, a 41% decrease from the same period last year. As of December 7, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.2727 million tons [2] - Due to the strong foreign production increase expectation and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the premium of rapeseed oil has significantly retreated. After continuous decline, the market has regained rationality. Future attention should be paid to rapeseed purchases in the next quarter and the possibility of restarting Canadian rapeseed purchases [2] Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil market is in a period of loose supply and demand with no obvious driving factors. Before the US biofuel policy is fully implemented, it is difficult for soybean oil to have a trending market. The implementation of the US biofuel policy may be the biggest driving factor for soybean oil in the future [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils are oscillating under pressure due to a lack of clear guidance. The soybean supply is abundant, and the oil mill's crushing volume remains high. The market's focus has shifted from the cost of imported soybeans to the substantial supply pressure. There is also a market expectation of state reserve sales, with a relatively high probability of soybean reserve sales in the first quarter, reducing the expectation of a soybean supply shortage from February to March. Currently, soybean oil lacks upward momentum and is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Although there are occasional abnormal weather conditions in South America, their impact is currently minimal, and future weather conditions in South American production areas should continue to be monitored [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8486.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day. - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8168.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.00 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day. - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9778.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.00 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8450.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.74% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P01 - 36.00, a decrease of 86.00 yuan from the previous day. - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day, with a spot basis of Y01 + 192.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan from the previous day. - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.69% from the previous day, with a spot basis of OI01 + 322.00, a decrease of 32.00 yuan from the previous day [1] Market News - A private exporter reported selling 123,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year, which starts on September 1st in the US. - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 81% of the expected area, and the sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn had reached 93% of the planned area in the central - southern region. - As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across China was 117.99 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons or 2.73% from the previous week. - As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key regions across China was 222.40 million tons, an increase of 0.10 million tons or 0.04% from the previous week, and a 12.84% increase compared to the same period last year. - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across China was 66.71 million tons, an increase of 1.39 million tons or 2.13% from the previous week, and a 31.34% increase compared to 50.79 million tons in the same period last year. - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 522 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 531 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1170 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1158 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1090 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 500 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (December shipment) was 494 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 492 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. - The import soybean premium quotes: the premium for the Mexican Gulf (December shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (December shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (December shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Strategy - The recommended strategy is "Neutral" [4]