二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 01 月 11 日 豆粕：等待 USDA 报告指引 豆一：关注 USDA 报告、抛储 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（01.05～01.09），美豆期价"涨跌互现、重心小幅上移"，中方持续采购美豆具有偏多影响。 从周 K 线角度，1 月 9 日当周，美豆主力 03 月合约周涨幅 1.6%，美豆粕主力 03 月合约周涨幅 2.67%。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 一周日均成交约 20 万吨。2）提货：豆粕提货量周环比下降。据钢联统计，截至 1 月 9 日当周，主要油厂 豆粕日均提货量约 17.4 万吨，前一周日均提货量约 18.2 万吨。3）基差：豆粕基差周环比略降。据统 计，截至 1 月 9 日当周，豆粕（张家港）基差周均值约 344 元/吨，前一周约 356 元/吨，去年同期约 275 元/吨。4）库存：豆粕库存周环比上升、同比上升。据钢联统计（111 家油厂），截至 1 月 2 日当周，我 国主流油厂豆粕库存约 106 万吨，周环比增幅约 3.6%，同比增幅约 74%。5）压榨 ...

油脂：SGS：预计马来西亚 12 月 1-10 日棕榈油出口量为 280048 吨，较上月 同期出口的 190533 吨上涨 46.98%。CGC：截至 12 月 7 日当周，加拿大油菜籽出 口量较前一周增加 81.9%至 28.92 万吨，之前一周为 15.9 万吨。自 2025 年 8 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 7 日，加拿大油菜籽出口量为 237.64 万吨，较上一年度同 期的 402.9 万吨减少 41%。截至 12 月 7 日，加拿大油菜籽商业库存为 127.27 万 吨。 【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：偏弱震荡 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日 豆粕：USDA 民间出口商报告：民间出口商报告向中国出售了 13.2 万吨大豆， 于 2025/2026 年度交付。阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公布的数据显示，截至 12 月 11 日，阿根廷 2025/26 年度大豆种植率为 58%，上周为 49%，去年同期为 66%。 据 Mysteel 调研显示，12 月 12 日，全国主要油厂豆粕成交 8.25 万吨，较前一 交易日减 6.84 万吨，其中现货成交 2.50 万吨，较前一交易日减 0 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils are oscillating under pressure due to a lack of clear guidance. The soybean supply is abundant, and the oil mill's crushing volume remains high. The market's focus has shifted from the cost of imported soybeans to the substantial supply pressure. There is also a market expectation of state reserve sales, with a relatively high probability of soybean reserve sales in the first quarter, reducing the expectation of a soybean supply shortage from February to March. Currently, soybean oil lacks upward momentum and is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Although there are occasional abnormal weather conditions in South America, their impact is currently minimal, and future weather conditions in South American production areas should continue to be monitored [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8486.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day. - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8168.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.00 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day. - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9778.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.00 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8450.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.74% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P01 - 36.00, a decrease of 86.00 yuan from the previous day. - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day, with a spot basis of Y01 + 192.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan from the previous day. - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.69% from the previous day, with a spot basis of OI01 + 322.00, a decrease of 32.00 yuan from the previous day [1] Market News - A private exporter reported selling 123,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year, which starts on September 1st in the US. - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 81% of the expected area, and the sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn had reached 93% of the planned area in the central - southern region. - As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across China was 117.99 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons or 2.73% from the previous week. - As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key regions across China was 222.40 million tons, an increase of 0.10 million tons or 0.04% from the previous week, and a 12.84% increase compared to the same period last year. - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across China was 66.71 million tons, an increase of 1.39 million tons or 2.13% from the previous week, and a 31.34% increase compared to 50.79 million tons in the same period last year. - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 522 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 531 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1170 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1158 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1090 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 500 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (December shipment) was 494 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 492 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. - The import soybean premium quotes: the premium for the Mexican Gulf (December shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (December shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (December shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Strategy - The recommended strategy is "Neutral" [4]