据追风交易台，12月18日，高盛发布研究报告，将"做多黄金"列为核心高确信度交易策略。高盛认为， 在地缘政治博弈和"AI与国力竞赛"的宏观背景下，新兴市场央行将持续买入黄金以分散储备风险。这种 结构性的央行买盘，叠加美联储降息带来的周期性支持，构成了金价上涨的双轮驱动。 报告指出，2025年金价由于ETF投资者与央行在有限的实物市场中展开竞争，已录得约64%的涨幅。高 盛预计，随着美联储在2026年继续降息50个基点，黄金ETF资金的回流将进一步加剧供需紧张。分析师 强调，央行的需求不仅具有粘性，且规模远超历史平均水平，这为金价提供了坚实的底部支撑。 此外，高盛还看到了基准预测之外的上行风险，主要来自私人投资者的潜在多元化配置。分析师测算， 若美国私人金融投资组合中的黄金配置比例仅增加1个基点，就足以推动金价额外上涨1.4%。这表明， 一旦私人资本出于对冲目的扩大黄金敞口，金价的爆发力可能超出目前的模型预期。 4900美元目标的双重引擎：结构性与周期性共振 据高盛大宗商品研究团队Daan Struyven和Samantha Dart等人撰写的报告，金价在2026年将延续强劲表 现。该行维持其基本情境预测，即金 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that international gold prices reached a new historical high, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. - As of mid-October, global gold ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks, indicating strong institutional and central bank buying activity [4]. - Multiple international investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts, suggesting that the gold bull market is not over, with predictions of prices reaching up to $4,600 per ounce by mid-2026 [7][8]. Group 2 - The article discusses the investment implications of the current gold market, suggesting that despite nominal prices being high, there is still investment potential due to the ongoing decline in real interest rates [9]. - It recommends three specific investment vehicles for participating in the gold market, including ETFs that track gold prices and funds that invest in gold-related companies [9]. - The article emphasizes that gold remains an essential defensive and hedging asset in investment portfolios, especially in the context of global monetary easing and persistent geopolitical uncertainties [9].