25 年复盘：周期底部磨底，现金盈利韧性凸显1） 营收端，公司25H1 实现营收60.7 亿元（同 比-5.4%），其中原料奶业务收入50.7 亿元（同比-0.8%）；受原奶均价同比下跌拖累，但公司依托年化 单产的行业领先优势，实现量增有效对冲价跌压力；我们预计25年全年原奶产量达中高个位数增长，全 年原奶业务收入或实现低单位数增长，规模效应持续显现。 2） 利润端，25H1 归母净利润亏损9.8 亿元，主因原奶价格弱势导致生物资产公允价值变动产生大额非 现金账面亏损；剔除非现金因素影响后，25H1 现金EBITDA 14.8 亿元（同比-2.5%）；随下半年淘牛价 格逐步抬升、重估损失有望环比改善，我们预计25 年报表端亏损收窄。 26 年展望：周期复苏启势，奶肉共振有望释放盈利弹性中性假设下，我们预计26 年原奶供需紧平衡、 奶价企稳回升，肉牛价格继续上行，叠加收购中国圣牧有望26 年完成交割，公司有望实现盈利改善： 1） 现金利润：我们预计26 年原奶端受益于行业产能出清后的供需再平衡，量价协同有望拉动原奶业务 收入同比实现中单位数增长；同时受益于饲料成本提前锁定下行趋势和单产稳步提升，主业盈利弹性或 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.90, reflecting a valuation premium due to its leading position in the domestic livestock industry and expected profit elasticity under the dual-cycle resonance [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned at the core of the dairy industry's upstream sector, with a clear and steadily improving cyclical evolution path. It is expected to be at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2025, with marginal recovery in beef prices and low raw milk prices. The apparent profit losses in the company's financial statements are gradually narrowing, showcasing cash profit resilience [1][5]. - In 2026, the company is anticipated to enter a phase of cyclical recovery, with a gradual start of dairy and meat resonance. This is expected to lead to volume and price recovery, impairment improvement, and potential merger synergies, collectively enhancing performance elasticity [3][1]. - The peak of the dual-cycle resonance for dairy and meat is projected to occur in 2028, establishing a "stable milk and strong meat" pattern, with the company's profit foundation continuously solidifying and profit elasticity expected to be fully released [1][3]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 6.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The raw milk business revenue was RMB 5.07 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year. Despite the decline in average raw milk prices, the company leveraged its industry-leading annual yield to effectively counteract price drop pressures [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was a loss of RMB 980 million, primarily due to weak raw milk prices leading to significant non-cash losses from fair value changes in biological assets. Excluding non-cash factors, cash EBITDA was RMB 1.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [10]. 2026 Outlook - Under a neutral assumption, raw milk supply and demand are expected to be in a tight balance in 2026, with milk prices stabilizing and beef prices continuing to rise. The acquisition of China Shengmu is expected to be completed in 2026, leading to profit improvement [3][10]. - The company anticipates that the raw milk business revenue will achieve mid-single-digit growth year-on-year in 2026, benefiting from the downward trend in feed costs and steady yield improvement. If the subsequent acquisition proceeds smoothly, the herd size will increase from 470,000 to over 610,000, further releasing scale effects and synergy [10][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at RMB -0.14, RMB 0.09, and RMB 0.17 respectively, reflecting increases of 14% for both 2025 and 2026, and 22% for 2027 [4]. - The estimated tax-pre profit increment from the meat and milk cycle reversal from 2025 to 2028 is approximately RMB 3.1 billion [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.90, reflecting a valuation premium due to its leading position in the industry and expected profit elasticity under the dual-cycle resonance [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a core leader in the upstream dairy industry, with a clear and steadily improving cyclical evolution path. It is expected to be at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2025, with marginal recovery in beef prices and low raw milk prices. The apparent profit losses are gradually narrowing, showcasing cash profit resilience [1][5]. - In 2026, the company is anticipated to enter a phase of cyclical recovery, with a gradual initiation of dairy and meat resonance. This is expected to lead to volume and price recovery, impairment improvement, and potential merger synergies, collectively enhancing performance elasticity [3][1]. - The peak of the dual-cycle resonance for dairy and meat is projected to occur in 2028, establishing a "stable dairy and strong meat" pattern, with a solid foundation for profitability and significant profit elasticity expected to be released [3][1]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 6.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The raw milk business revenue was RMB 5.07 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year. Despite the decline in raw milk prices, the company leveraged its industry-leading annual yield to effectively counteract price drop pressures [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was a loss of RMB 980 million, primarily due to weak raw milk prices leading to significant non-cash losses from fair value changes in biological assets [10]. 2026 Outlook - Under a neutral assumption, it is expected that raw milk supply and demand will be in a tight balance in 2026, with milk prices stabilizing and beef prices continuing to rise. The acquisition of China Shengmu is anticipated to be completed in 2026, leading to profit improvement [3][10]. - The company is expected to achieve a mid-single-digit growth in raw milk business revenue in 2026, benefiting from the downward trend in feed costs and steady yield improvements. If the acquisition proceeds smoothly, the herd size will increase from 470,000 to over 610,000, further enhancing scale effects and synergy [10][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at RMB -0.14, RMB 0.09, and RMB 0.17 respectively, reflecting increases of 14% for both 2025 and 2026, and 22% for 2027 [4]. - The estimated tax-pre profit increment from the meat and dairy cycle reversal from 2025 to 2028 is approximately RMB 3.1 billion [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage sector, suggesting investors take advantage of low prices to acquire quality leading companies [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector, driven by seasonal demand and improved sales performance during the Chinese New Year [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading brands with strong fundamentals, particularly in the liquor and dairy segments, as they are expected to outperform their peers [2][4]. Summary by Category Liquor - The liquor industry is experiencing a divergence in performance, with top brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing strong sales, while others face challenges [1]. - Kweichow Moutai benefits from marketing reforms and strong demand, with its product prices stabilizing above 1600 RMB [1]. - Recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and other leading brands for investment [1]. Dairy Products - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are expected to achieve strong sales during the Chinese New Year, with inventory levels remaining healthy [2]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the raw milk cycle, with prices expected to stabilize, benefiting leading dairy firms [2]. - Recommended stocks include Yili and Mengniu, which are expected to gain market share in 2026 [2]. Restaurant Supply Chain and Condiments - The report sees a recovery in the restaurant sector, supported by government policies and improved consumer confidence [3]. - Leading companies are adjusting pricing strategies to enhance profitability, with inventory levels remaining healthy [3]. - Key recommendations include Anjijia and Haitian Flavoring, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [3]. Snacks - The snack industry is poised for growth, with increased sales during the Chinese New Year and a shift towards efficient retail channels [4]. - Recommended stocks include Weilian and Qiaqia, which are expected to maintain high profitability levels [4].