Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.61, up 0.49 (+0.50%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9411, down 0.011 (-0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.01%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.40%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, unchanged (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, unchanged (+0.00%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the trends and proportions related to the treasury futures market, including the closing prices, price changes, precipitation of funds, positions, and net positions of various treasury futures varieties [13][14][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local government bond issuance, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, and the yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [24][27][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows the trends of inter - period spreads of various treasury futures varieties and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads through multiple charts [34][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures The report offers charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate declines, the prices of treasury futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Core Insights - By the end of 2025, Shenzhen's deposit balance is expected to exceed 14 trillion yuan, while the loan balance is projected to be nearly 10 trillion yuan, maintaining the city's position as the third largest in terms of deposit and loan scale in the country [1] Group 1: Loan Balances - Loans for technology, green initiatives, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and the digital economy are expected to reach 2.26 trillion yuan, 1.40 trillion yuan, 1.97 trillion yuan, and 1.35 trillion yuan respectively, with all these loan categories growing at a rate higher than the overall loan growth [1] Group 2: Service Consumption and Elderly Care Loans - New loans issued for service consumption and elderly care are expected to account for over 60% of the total in Guangdong province [1]

Core Insights - As of November 2025, the total balance of various loans in Guizhou Province reached 50,122.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1] - The balance of RMB loans specifically was 50,105.9 billion yuan, also showing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1] Loan Distribution - Long-term loans to the manufacturing sector amounted to 2,002.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [1] - Inclusive small and micro loans reached 5,251.4 billion yuan, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase [1] - In November, household loans increased by 11 million yuan, with short-term loans decreasing by 34 million yuan and long-term loans increasing by 45 million yuan [1] - Loans to enterprises increased by 106.8 billion yuan in November, with short-term loans rising by 46.8 billion yuan and long-term loans by 59.3 billion yuan [1] - Bill financing saw an increase of 3.2 billion yuan in the same month [1] Deposit Overview - By the end of November 2025, the total balance of various deposits was 39,013 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [1] - The balance of RMB deposits was 38,919.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [1] - In November, fiscal deposits in RMB decreased by 331.1 billion yuan, while household deposits increased by 54.3 billion yuan [1] - Deposits from non-bank financial institutions decreased by 79.5 billion yuan, whereas deposits from non-financial enterprises increased by 196.2 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - The financial institutions in Hunan Province reported a total deposit balance of 8.89 trillion yuan (889.18 billion yuan) by the end of September, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [1] - New deposits from January to September amounted to 656.7 billion yuan, which is an increase of 177.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The loan balance reached 7.87 trillion yuan (786.58 billion yuan) by the end of September, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [1] Deposit Structure - All categories of deposits showed an increase, with personal deposits rising by 485.5 billion yuan, an increase of 47.2 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 40.5 billion yuan, up by 35.2 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Fiscal deposits grew by 48.3 billion yuan, which is an increase of 19.5 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Loan Growth - The overall loan growth remained stable, with new loans totaling 428.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters [1] - Loans to enterprises showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, surpassing the overall loan growth rate by 2.2 percentage points [1] - Short-term loans increased by 179.5 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans rose by 191.6 billion yuan [1] Social Financing - The social financing scale maintained a high level, with an increase of 626.2 billion yuan from January to August [1] - Indirect financing contributed 353.4 billion yuan, while government bond financing added 251.8 billion yuan [1] Credit Structure Optimization - The growth rate of loans to the manufacturing sector continued to outpace overall loan growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [2] - Corporate credit loans also showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, exceeding the overall loan growth rate by 6.7 percentage points [2]

Group 1: Loan Data - As of the end of September, the total balance of domestic and foreign currency loans in Shanghai reached 12.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - The balance of RMB loans was 12.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The balance of foreign currency loans was 84 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, which is an increase of 4.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2: Loan Breakdown - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 601.3 billion yuan, which is 302 billion yuan less than the same period last year [1] - Household loans increased by 260.7 billion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 4.9 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 255.8 billion yuan [1] - Corporate loans increased by 273.1 billion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 151 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 190.6 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Deposit Data - As of the end of September, the total balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits in Shanghai was 23.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, with a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The balance of RMB deposits was 22.54 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The balance of foreign currency deposits was 182.3 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 11%, which is an increase of 4 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] Group 4: Personal and Corporate Deposits - In the first three quarters, personal RMB deposits saw an increase in time deposits and large-denomination certificates of deposit by 288.8 billion yuan and 48.7 billion yuan, respectively, with both showing a year-on-year decrease [3] - Non-financial enterprises' RMB deposits increased in notice deposits, large-denomination certificates of deposit, and structured deposits by 143.7 billion yuan, 131.2 billion yuan, and 78.5 billion yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year increases [3] - Time deposits and margin deposits for non-financial enterprises increased by 38.1 billion yuan and 13.6 billion yuan, respectively, but both showed year-on-year decreases [3]

Group 1: Loan Data - As of the end of July, the total balance of loans in Shanghai reached 12.79 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The balance of RMB loans was 12.21 trillion yuan, growing by 8.1% year-on-year, also down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Foreign currency loans amounted to 80.1 billion USD, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - In July, RMB loans decreased by 44.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 69 billion yuan [1] - Corporate loans decreased by 748 billion yuan, with short-term loans down by 34 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans down by 40.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Deposit Data - By the end of July, the total balance of deposits in Shanghai was 23.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The balance of RMB deposits was 21.81 trillion yuan, growing by 7.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Foreign currency deposits totaled 176.5 billion USD, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, a decline of 4.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - In July, RMB deposits increased by 216.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.8 billion yuan [2] - Household deposits decreased by 70.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 50.1 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Non-Financial Enterprises' Deposits - Large-denomination certificates of deposit, margin deposits, and structured deposits for non-financial enterprises increased by 38.2 billion yuan, 26.2 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 22.5 billion yuan, 29.5 billion yuan, and 0.7 billion yuan [3] - Time deposits increased by 20.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 53.3 billion yuan [3] - Demand deposits and agreement deposits decreased by 105.1 billion yuan and 51.4 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 4.3 billion yuan and 32.5 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The financial indicators in Tianjin show stable growth in deposits, loans, and social financing, supporting the recovery of the real economy [1][2] Group 1: Deposits - As of the end of March, the total deposit balance in Tianjin reached 4.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, with an increase of 99.3 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] - Household deposits amounted to 2.52 trillion yuan, increasing by 86.7 billion yuan since the start of the year, and showing a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of all deposits [1] Group 2: Loans - The total loan balance in Tianjin was 4.72 trillion yuan at the end of March, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.7% and an increase of 99.5 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] - The loan structure is improving, with significant growth in key sectors: industrial medium and long-term loans increased by 8.9%, loans to the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors rose by 19.9%, and loans to the automotive manufacturing sector grew by 20.7% [1] - Agricultural loans increased by 18.0%, and inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises rose by 14.2%, both significantly higher than the overall loan growth rate [1] Group 3: Social Financing - In the first quarter, the total social financing scale in Tianjin increased by 141.2 billion yuan [2] - The banking sector provided a total of 77.5 billion yuan to the real economy, accounting for 54.9% of the social financing scale [2] - Trust loans increased by 21.5 billion yuan, which is 11.7 billion yuan more than the previous year, making up 15.2% of the social financing increment, an increase of 8.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Net financing from corporate bonds reached 13.5 billion yuan, an increase of 20.8 billion yuan year-on-year, while local government bonds net financing was 40.5 billion yuan, also up by 20.8 billion yuan year-on-year [2]