2026年开年，"50万亿存款到期"话题引发居民对存款再配置的广泛讨论。南都·湾财社同步推出"50万亿存款到 期，钱往何处去"系列策划，通过采访储户、银行与非银机构等，深入追踪数十万亿存款的流向趋势。2月10日， 央行官网发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称《报告》），《报告》专门以一个专栏，进 一步为巨量存款流向给出了权威解答。 低利率环境下，资管产品与存款增速现"此消彼长" 2025年三季度，居民存款增速高位有所回落，各方关注增多，出现了一些关于银行存款"流失"、存款"搬家"的探 讨。 "近年来，资管产品和银行表内存款增速大体上呈现'此消彼长'的态势。"《报告》指出，2024年以来，存款利率 持续下行，一年期定期存款挂牌利率累计下降0.5个百分点，而具有类存款特征的现金管理类理财产品同期收益率 仍整体高于银行存款利率，其他资管产品收益率水平比现金管理类理财更高。 数据来源：中国人民银行 在此背景下，住户和企业资产配置更多转向理财、基金等资管产品，从住户和企业募集的资管资金增速持续上 升。《报告》显示，2025年末资管总资产余额合计120万亿元，同比增长13.1%，全年累计增加13.8万 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信证券研究 文|明明 章立聪 赵偲翀 今年以来，银行大量到期存款的再配置问题受到广泛关注。后续投资者对银行存款到期流向关注重点集 中在以下几方面：一是到期存款是否仍以停留在银行表内为主？二是到期存款是否会迁徙至低风险资管 产品？三是到期存款是否会搬家至权益市场？ ▍利率复盘： 年初央行货币政策体现积极呵护信号，强调降准降息仍有空间，短端利率走势偏强，但对于超长期特别 国债供给的担忧仍存，叠加A股春季躁动行情，长端利率震荡走弱；曲线形态上，1月以来短端受益于 流动性宽松，超长端受制于特别国债供给预期，期限利差走阔，30Y-10Y利差中枢进一步上行，创下 2023年以来新高，收益率曲线显著陡峭化；资金利率上，资金面受税期短暂扰动，随着央行传递积极呵 护态度，流动性整体保持平稳；信用利差方面，1月以来信用利差持续收缩。 ▍存款增速下滑的趋势如何拆解？ 2025年下半年以来，银行体系存款增速逐步下滑，存贷增速差同步收缩。从结构上看，目前企业部门定 存增速和定存偏好明显下降，居民部门虽同比回落，但仍保持较高增速，反映居民端仍维持"被动储 蓄"， ...

Core Insights - The banking wealth management market in 2025 experienced significant structural changes and scale breakthroughs, with the total market size exceeding 30 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, and over 14 million new investors added [2] - The low interest rate environment has catalyzed a shift from reliance on single fixed-income products to multi-asset and multi-strategy layouts, with "fixed income plus" products gaining prominence [2][6] - Regulatory scrutiny intensified, leading to a notable increase in penalties for non-compliance, with a total of 61.4 million yuan in fines issued to eight wealth management subsidiaries [16] Low Interest Rates - In 2025, low interest rates became a defining characteristic of the banking wealth management market, with the central bank announcing further rate cuts, bringing deposit rates below 1% for one-year terms [3] Market Size and Growth - By the end of Q3 2025, the total market size of wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.18 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year, with the number of investors holding these products rising to 139 million [6] Equity Investments - The A-share market showed strong growth in 2025, with some equity wealth management products yielding over 50%, and over 20 mixed equity products achieving returns exceeding 20% [7][8] Fixed Income Plus Products - "Fixed income plus" products became popular, characterized by a core of fixed-income assets supplemented by equities and other assets to enhance yield, with the scale of these products reaching approximately 9 trillion yuan, a 69% increase from the end of 2023 [11] Pension Wealth Management - The number of personal pension wealth management products expanded to 37, with a total scale surpassing 10 billion yuan, and an average annual return of 3.4% achieved since their inception [12][14] Management Changes - In 2025, the wealth management industry saw a wave of executive changes, with at least 15 out of 32 bank wealth management subsidiaries experiencing leadership transitions, reflecting the industry's maturation and the need for enhanced management capabilities [15] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment became more stringent, with a total of 61.4 million yuan in fines imposed on eight wealth management subsidiaries, highlighting the focus on compliance and the prevention of misleading practices in product marketing [16]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a general downward trend, particularly in government bond futures, while short-term bonds continue to show strength. The overall liquidity remains manageable under the central bank's guidance, despite rising funding demands as the year-end approaches [1][4]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year contract down 0.24% to 112.51, the 10-year contract down 0.02% to 108.195, and the 5-year contract down 0.03% to 105.99. The 2-year contract also fell by 0.02% to 102.51 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 0.9 basis points to 2.2275%, while the 10-year bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.8980%. Conversely, the 1-year bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.32% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 2.45 basis points to 3.506% and the 10-year yield down 2.73 basis points to 4.136%. In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 5.1 basis points to 3.559% [3]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,771 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 888 billion yuan for the day. The central bank is also set to conduct a 4,000 billion yuan operation for 1-year MLF [4]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate falling to 1.262%, the lowest since August 2023, while the 7-day rate rose to 1.4% [4]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted an improvement in bond market sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing below 1.85%. There is renewed market interest in the "cross-year market" as long-term bonds begin to recover [5]. - Huatai Fixed Income highlighted that post-2020, there has been an increase in precautionary savings among households, leading to a significant rise in long-term deposits in the banking system. The upcoming maturity of these deposits poses a re-pricing challenge [5]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicated that while there may be short-term pressure on wealth management products, demand for credit bonds is expected to remain stable due to ongoing needs for credit debt amidst fluctuating interest rates [6].