Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the second-hand housing market in September shows a mixed performance, with transaction volume declining month-on-month but increasing year-on-year, suggesting ongoing market weakness [1][2]. Transaction Volume and Price Trends - In September, the transaction volume index for second-hand residential properties in 80 cities decreased by 10% month-on-month but increased by 19% year-on-year (Q3 +19%, Q2 +17%) [1]. - The registered transaction area in 15 cities rose by 6% month-on-month and grew by 9% year-on-year (Q3 +3%, Q2 +11%) [1]. - The price index for homogeneous second-hand residential properties fell by 1.7% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.7%, Q2 average -1.4%) [1]. - The negotiation space for transactions increased by 25 basis points to 8.91% [1]. Listing Trends - The number of second-hand residential listings in 130 cities increased by 0.4% month-on-month, continuing a slight upward trend [2]. - The price index for homogeneous listings in key cities decreased by 1.5% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.3%, Q2 average -1.2%) [2]. - The average adjustment for listed properties was -5.24%, indicating a conservative price expectation among sellers [2]. Rental Market Insights - The rental index for homogeneous listings decreased by 0.8% month-on-month (August -0.5%) [3]. - The average rental period remained stable at 2.12 months [3]. - The rental-to-sale ratio increased by 2 basis points to 2.33% due to declining listing prices [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the real estate and property management sectors, particularly in companies with solid fundamentals and profit quality such as China Resources Land, Jianfa International, and others [4]. - It also recommends considering undervalued stocks like Greentown China and New Town Holdings, given potential liquidity improvements [4]. - The report highlights the importance of identifying stocks with strong growth prospects or attractive dividend yields across various sectors [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate sector, recommending to buy on dips due to low valuations and potential policy benefits [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector increased by 3.9% this week, ranking 6th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by 1.6%, ranking 5th [3]. - The average premium rate for land transactions has rebounded to 12%, with a significant decrease in transaction volume compared to previous weeks [3]. - The report highlights a seasonal low in commodity housing sales, with a 2% decrease week-on-week and a 13% decrease year-on-year [4]. - The report indicates that the real estate data is stabilizing at the bottom, but further efforts are needed for recovery [6]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the real estate sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has shown positive performance, with specific stocks experiencing significant gains [3][22]. - The property service and management index in Hong Kong increased by 2.2%, outperforming other indices [28]. Land Market - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, the total area of residential land sold across 300 cities was 450 million square meters, reflecting a 42% decrease week-on-week and a 49% decrease year-on-year [33]. - The cumulative area of residential land sold from the beginning of 2025 to date is 22,895 million square meters, showing a 4% year-on-year decline [33]. Housing Sales - The report indicates that 264 million square meters of commodity housing were sold in 47 cities during the week, with a 2% decrease from the previous week and a 13% decrease year-on-year [4][38]. - The sales volume in first-tier cities increased by 7% week-on-week, while second-tier cities saw a 20% decrease [4]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China announced a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing, aimed at supporting local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties [5][14]. - The report emphasizes the need for policy optimization to accelerate the acquisition of existing housing stock to aid in inventory reduction [5][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on developers with strong operations and potential benefits from policy changes, particularly those active in core first and second-tier cities [7]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Jianfa International Group, Greentown China, and China Overseas Development [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The recent political bureau meeting emphasized the need to "continuously consolidate the stability of the real estate market," focusing on urban village renovations, high-quality housing, and stock housing acquisition [2][4]. - The report indicates that the incremental policy window for the real estate industry is gradually opening, with a more proactive macroeconomic and fiscal policy environment expected to support market recovery, particularly in first-tier cities [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in transaction volume, with new and second-hand housing sales in 19 key cities rising by 18% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in market stabilization [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The meeting's focus on urban renewal, stock housing acquisition, and high-quality housing supply aligns with previous predictions regarding the incremental policy window [4]. - The emphasis on urban renewal actions and the acceleration of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations signal strong governmental support for these initiatives [4]. Market Recovery - The report notes that while the market has shown signs of stabilization, particularly in sales volume, the foundation for price stability remains fragile, necessitating ongoing policy support [3]. - The report suggests that first-tier cities will exhibit greater policy elasticity, which could lead to a more pronounced recovery in the market and related stocks [2][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products," particularly in first-tier cities [5]. - Specific stock recommendations include: - A-share developers: Chengdu Investment Holdings, Chengjian Development, Binjiang Group, New Town Holdings, China Merchants Shekou, and Jianfa Co [5][9]. - Hong Kong-listed developers: China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, and Yuexiu Property [5][9]. - Property management companies: China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Merchants Jiyu, and Binjiang Service [5][9].

Group 1 - The China Securities Real Estate Theme Index (000948) has seen a strong increase of 3.11% as of April 17, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as New Town Holdings (601155) up 10.03%, and others like Binjiang Group (002244) up 6.28% and Poly Development (600048) up 3.96% [1] - The Real Estate ETF (159768) rose by 3.46%, with the latest price reported at 0.57 yuan. Over the past two weeks, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.73% [1] - The trading volume for the Real Estate ETF showed a turnover of 6.14% during the session, with a transaction value of 30.21 million yuan. The average daily transaction value over the past year was 41.70 million yuan [1] - The Real Estate ETF has achieved a net value increase of 15.30% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 34.85% and an average monthly return of 10.98% [1] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng indicates that the storage of existing housing still requires support, suggesting a future trend towards "long-term holding and short-term release." As of April 10, 2025, the amount of land intended for storage using special bonds reached 12.8 billion yuan, with 40.2 billion yuan already issued [2] - The storage of existing housing faces challenges such as project yield rates and entry thresholds. Future policies may focus less on short-term profits and more on long-term benefits, potentially accelerating the implementation of existing housing storage [2] - There are signs of recovery in real estate sales driven by policy support since Q4 2024, with local government regulations expected to remain relaxed. It is anticipated that first-tier cities will primarily ease restrictions in peripheral areas, while other cities may shift from restrictions to subsidy support [2]

Core Viewpoint - The new policy on the acquisition of existing residential properties shows significant relaxation compared to previous regulations, which is expected to resolve previous bottlenecks in the process [1][11]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The government has introduced greater autonomy for local governments regarding the acquisition of existing residential properties, including flexibility in acquisition subjects, pricing, and usage [1][3][11]. - The government work report has expanded the scope of guaranteed housing refinancing, allowing for a broader range of funding sources for property acquisition [1][10]. Pricing Issues - Previously, the acquisition price was mandated to be based on replacement cost, which was approximately half of the market price, leading to reluctance from developers to sell [3][4]. - The new policy allows local governments to negotiate acquisition prices that are higher than replacement costs but lower than market prices, potentially alleviating previous pricing barriers [3][4][6]. Acquisition Models - The relaxation of restrictions on acquisition subjects and purposes is expected to lead to more diversified acquisition models, allowing for participation from various market entities beyond local state-owned enterprises [6][7][11]. - The government has emphasized the priority of using acquired properties for affordable housing, urban village redevelopment, and other community needs [6][11]. Funding Sources - The expansion of the guaranteed housing refinancing program is anticipated to provide a richer array of funding sources for property acquisition, including residential, commercial, and other types of properties [9][10]. - Local governments are encouraged to utilize special bonds, with a proposed allocation of 4.4 trillion yuan for various projects, including the acquisition of existing residential properties [11].