Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate sector, recommending to buy on dips due to low valuations and potential policy benefits [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector increased by 3.9% this week, ranking 6th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by 1.6%, ranking 5th [3]. - The average premium rate for land transactions has rebounded to 12%, with a significant decrease in transaction volume compared to previous weeks [3]. - The report highlights a seasonal low in commodity housing sales, with a 2% decrease week-on-week and a 13% decrease year-on-year [4]. - The report indicates that the real estate data is stabilizing at the bottom, but further efforts are needed for recovery [6]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the real estate sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has shown positive performance, with specific stocks experiencing significant gains [3][22]. - The property service and management index in Hong Kong increased by 2.2%, outperforming other indices [28]. Land Market - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, the total area of residential land sold across 300 cities was 450 million square meters, reflecting a 42% decrease week-on-week and a 49% decrease year-on-year [33]. - The cumulative area of residential land sold from the beginning of 2025 to date is 22,895 million square meters, showing a 4% year-on-year decline [33]. Housing Sales - The report indicates that 264 million square meters of commodity housing were sold in 47 cities during the week, with a 2% decrease from the previous week and a 13% decrease year-on-year [4][38]. - The sales volume in first-tier cities increased by 7% week-on-week, while second-tier cities saw a 20% decrease [4]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China announced a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing, aimed at supporting local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties [5][14]. - The report emphasizes the need for policy optimization to accelerate the acquisition of existing housing stock to aid in inventory reduction [5][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on developers with strong operations and potential benefits from policy changes, particularly those active in core first and second-tier cities [7]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Jianfa International Group, Greentown China, and China Overseas Development [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The recent political bureau meeting emphasized the need to "continuously consolidate the stability of the real estate market," focusing on urban village renovations, high-quality housing, and stock housing acquisition [2][4]. - The report indicates that the incremental policy window for the real estate industry is gradually opening, with a more proactive macroeconomic and fiscal policy environment expected to support market recovery, particularly in first-tier cities [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in transaction volume, with new and second-hand housing sales in 19 key cities rising by 18% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in market stabilization [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The meeting's focus on urban renewal, stock housing acquisition, and high-quality housing supply aligns with previous predictions regarding the incremental policy window [4]. - The emphasis on urban renewal actions and the acceleration of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations signal strong governmental support for these initiatives [4]. Market Recovery - The report notes that while the market has shown signs of stabilization, particularly in sales volume, the foundation for price stability remains fragile, necessitating ongoing policy support [3]. - The report suggests that first-tier cities will exhibit greater policy elasticity, which could lead to a more pronounced recovery in the market and related stocks [2][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products," particularly in first-tier cities [5]. - Specific stock recommendations include: - A-share developers: Chengdu Investment Holdings, Chengjian Development, Binjiang Group, New Town Holdings, China Merchants Shekou, and Jianfa Co [5][9]. - Hong Kong-listed developers: China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, and Yuexiu Property [5][9]. - Property management companies: China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Merchants Jiyu, and Binjiang Service [5][9].

Group 1 - The China Securities Real Estate Theme Index (000948) has seen a strong increase of 3.11% as of April 17, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as New Town Holdings (601155) up 10.03%, and others like Binjiang Group (002244) up 6.28% and Poly Development (600048) up 3.96% [1] - The Real Estate ETF (159768) rose by 3.46%, with the latest price reported at 0.57 yuan. Over the past two weeks, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.73% [1] - The trading volume for the Real Estate ETF showed a turnover of 6.14% during the session, with a transaction value of 30.21 million yuan. The average daily transaction value over the past year was 41.70 million yuan [1] - The Real Estate ETF has achieved a net value increase of 15.30% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 34.85% and an average monthly return of 10.98% [1] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng indicates that the storage of existing housing still requires support, suggesting a future trend towards "long-term holding and short-term release." As of April 10, 2025, the amount of land intended for storage using special bonds reached 12.8 billion yuan, with 40.2 billion yuan already issued [2] - The storage of existing housing faces challenges such as project yield rates and entry thresholds. Future policies may focus less on short-term profits and more on long-term benefits, potentially accelerating the implementation of existing housing storage [2] - There are signs of recovery in real estate sales driven by policy support since Q4 2024, with local government regulations expected to remain relaxed. It is anticipated that first-tier cities will primarily ease restrictions in peripheral areas, while other cities may shift from restrictions to subsidy support [2]

Core Viewpoint - The new policy on the acquisition of existing residential properties shows significant relaxation compared to previous regulations, which is expected to resolve previous bottlenecks in the process [1][11]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The government has introduced greater autonomy for local governments regarding the acquisition of existing residential properties, including flexibility in acquisition subjects, pricing, and usage [1][3][11]. - The government work report has expanded the scope of guaranteed housing refinancing, allowing for a broader range of funding sources for property acquisition [1][10]. Pricing Issues - Previously, the acquisition price was mandated to be based on replacement cost, which was approximately half of the market price, leading to reluctance from developers to sell [3][4]. - The new policy allows local governments to negotiate acquisition prices that are higher than replacement costs but lower than market prices, potentially alleviating previous pricing barriers [3][4][6]. Acquisition Models - The relaxation of restrictions on acquisition subjects and purposes is expected to lead to more diversified acquisition models, allowing for participation from various market entities beyond local state-owned enterprises [6][7][11]. - The government has emphasized the priority of using acquired properties for affordable housing, urban village redevelopment, and other community needs [6][11]. Funding Sources - The expansion of the guaranteed housing refinancing program is anticipated to provide a richer array of funding sources for property acquisition, including residential, commercial, and other types of properties [9][10]. - Local governments are encouraged to utilize special bonds, with a proposed allocation of 4.4 trillion yuan for various projects, including the acquisition of existing residential properties [11].