1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillation", "oscillation with a downward bias", etc., which can be used as a reference for investment ratings of specific products [9][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strength of coal has ignited the energy - chemical chain, with low - inventory EG being the most prominent. The EU - US trade negotiation prospects affect overseas financial markets. The crude oil market is supported by low inventories in Europe and the US, and the overall profit of the chemical industry is expanding [2][3]. - The overall outlook for energy and chemicals is a strong - side oscillation. It is advisable for investors to participate with light positions and consider a hedging strategy of going long on coal - chemical products and short on oil - chemical products [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: The relaxation of US petroleum - related licenses for Venezuela may increase supply pressure. Although global on - land crude oil inventories are rising, the high operating rates of Chinese and US refineries and the strong profit stage continue, and the short - term improvement in demand expectations also supports oil prices. - **Outlook**: The strong reality dominated by high operating rates of domestic and foreign refineries and the weak expectation dominated by supply pressure form a balance, resulting in oil price oscillation [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The spot price continues to fall, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates around 3600. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s over - expected production increase in August and September will increase heavy - oil supply, and the supply pressure at the raw material end will put pressure on the asphalt futures price. The demand side has a high valuation compared to other products, and the current foundation for asphalt to rise is not solid. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price still faces great downward pressure. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s over - expected production increase, the decline in natural gas prices, and the release of high - sulfur fuel oil spot liquidity all contribute to the downward pressure. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [10][11]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. Although it has some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, its current valuation is low. - **Outlook**: It fluctuates with crude oil [13]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by the macro - environment and coal, it oscillates upwards. - **Main Logic**: The strength of coal prices supports the upward movement of methanol. The supply in China may shrink, and the port inventory has decreased. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [23][24]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fades, the market returns to fundamentals, and it declines in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. Although the price has risen recently, the downstream purchasing is cautious. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the context of a strong - supply and weak - demand pattern [24][25]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Cost support becomes the new driving force. - **Main Logic**: The continuous strength of coal prices supports the rise of coal - chemical products. Although overseas devices are restarting and port inventories are slightly increasing, the driving force for the rise has switched to cost. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract may remain strong for a longer time than previously expected [19][21]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: Driven by enthusiastic sentiment and cost rebound. - **Main Logic**: The stabilization of crude oil prices supports the cost of PX. The supply side is affected by maintenance, and the demand side is stable. - **Outlook**: It oscillates [14]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the market atmosphere is enthusiastic, and the supply is expected to shrink in August. - **Main Logic**: Cost provides strong support, and the announced maintenance plans of large manufacturers in August are expected to reduce supply. The polyester load has moderately increased. - **Outlook**: It oscillates [15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: With the improvement of the macro - environment, downstream speculative stocking leads to inventory reduction. - **Main Logic**: Supported by upstream polyester raw materials and the "anti - involution" initiative, the downstream has stocking behavior, which promotes inventory reduction. - **Outlook**: The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials [21]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: Polyester raw materials are strong, and the processing fee is passively compressed. - **Main Logic**: Supported by upstream costs, the price oscillates upwards, but the processing fee is compressed due to the strength of raw materials. - **Outlook**: The processing fee has a lower - bound support, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [22]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by the macro - environment, it oscillates upwards. - **Main Logic**: The short - term macro - environment provides four - fold boosts. Although the supply side has an increasing trend, the demand side is weak. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [27][28]. 3.1.13 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: The spot support is limited, but the macro - environment dominates the market, and it may oscillate in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The short - term weakness of oil prices makes the spot price weak. As a new variety, there is significant capital game behavior. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [28]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the macro - environment, it oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The short - term macro - environment provides multiple boosts. Although the supply side has pressure, the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract oscillates in the short term [26]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Southeast Asian geopolitics may affect imports, leading to a rebound. - **Main Logic**: The risk of a short - squeeze in styrene has been eliminated, and the Q3 balance sheet of pure benzene has improved. Although the explicit and implicit inventories are high, the price is expected to oscillate strongly. - **Outlook**: The Q3 fundamentals improve, and the spot may oscillate strongly, but the amplitude is limited by high inventories [16][17]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Southeast Asian geopolitics may support the cost, leading to a rebound. - **Main Logic**: The improvement of the pure - benzene fundamentals has no obvious negative impact on styrene. After the price drops rapidly, styrene is expected to rebound. - **Outlook**: Supported by macro - policies, it is expected to oscillate strongly this week [17][18]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: The positive factors in the domestic petrochemical industry boost market sentiment. Although the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure, the cost is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: It is cautiously optimistic in the short term, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - and long - term [30]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectation but weak reality, with a weak rebound. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached the peak. Although the demand from the alumina industry is increasing, the overall supply is still high. - **Outlook**: The positive policy expectation promotes the rebound of the caustic - soda market, and long positions can take profits at high levels to avoid risks [31][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [34]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Data on cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [35]. The report also provides some data monitoring for specific chemical products such as methanol, urea, etc., but no detailed analysis is provided in this summary.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black industry is expected to have a mixed performance with different products showing varying trends. The market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy, and macro - economic news [1][3]. - **Specific products**: - **螺纹钢**: Futures prices are expected to move weakly in a range due to potential seasonal demand slowdown and relatively balanced supply - demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [1]. - **铁矿石**: The iron ore market is likely to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach as it is more affected by macro news and port inventory is expected to continue decreasing [1]. - **双焦**: Both coking coal and coke markets are expected to continue oscillating in the short term. For coking coal, focus on coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand. For coke, pay attention to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **螺纹钢** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+7) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The supply - demand is relatively balanced currently, with production declining for two consecutive weeks and inventory de - stocking slowing down. There may be a slight inventory build - up later [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. Given the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies and the loosening of real - world supply - demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. **铁矿石** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 719 yuan/wet ton (- 5). The Platts 62% index was 94.95 dollars/ton (- 0.25), with a monthly average of 95.70 dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 60 yuan/ton (- 1) [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,839.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104.04. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 [1]. - **Outlook**: The iron ore market is mainly affected by macro news. With the high - yield shipments of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year, the port inventory is expected to continue decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. **双焦** - **Coking coal** - **Supply**: Some coal mines have experienced phased production cuts, but the overall supply is still loose. Coal mine inventories are high, and the intermediate - link procurement is cautious [3]. - **Demand**: After the third round of price cuts for coke, coking enterprises' profit margins have been further compressed, and they maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy. Steel mills' procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The production rhythm of coking enterprises is differentiated, with some experiencing passive production cuts due to profit pressure and environmental inspections, and the overall start - up level has declined [3]. - **Demand**: The steel market is entering the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Steel mills' demand for coke has limited growth, and their procurement is cautious [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coke remains loose. Although the supply has marginally shrunk, the demand support is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. **产经要闻** - **Industrial projects**: On June 7, Jin'an Mining's 9 - series permanent magnet ferrite ultra - pure iron powder pre - fired material project was put into production. Shanxi Jianlong and Shanxi Meijin resumed production, while Luzhou Xinyang Vanadium Titanium Steel plans to reduce production due to high - temperature weather [6]. - **Real estate**: From June 2nd to June 8th, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 26.9% week - on - week and 17.5% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 11.8% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year [6]. - **Construction machinery**: In May 2025, the domestic sales of various excavators were 18,202 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. From January to May, a total of 101,700 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [6]. - **Government bonds**: As of June 10, 2025, the new issuance scale of domestic land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, involving 442 projects and 24 special bonds [6].