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工业硅、多晶硅日评:或有回调-20250804
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:05
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market has seen a recent rebound in both futures and spot prices, but considering the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the market, the market is expected to adjust. However, bullish sentiment may still fluctuate, so caution is needed in operations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by silicon enterprises [1]. - The polysilicon market has also seen a continuous upward trend in the futures market since the end of June. Although the recent sentiment has faded, it still fluctuates. The market is volatile, and caution is required in operations. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 10,150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 2.97% to 8,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, as silicon prices continue to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, with the arrival of the wet season, power costs have decreased, and enterprise operations have steadily increased. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, so supply is expected to increase steadily. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, which will bring some demand increments. For the silicone industry, a major factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. With the support of silicon prices on the cost side, silicone prices have continued to rise. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material increased 1.10% to 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material rose 1.08% to 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material increased 1.12% to 45 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.14% to 49,200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, production is expected to increase slightly, with July's production approaching 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, with inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials rising. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit. Enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved, but the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]. Other Information - The component procurement of the 1350MW solar photovoltaic power station project of Dongying Huiyang Clean Energy Co., Ltd.'s fourth - phase fishery - photovoltaic complementary project has been terminated due to policy adjustments. Another project in Dongying City, Lijin County, with an installed capacity of 975MWp, is planned to be invested about 741 million yuan [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the 2025 special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry, requiring local industrial and information technology departments to complete the supervision and submit results by September 30, 2025 [1].