1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a stable and fluctuating trend after a rapid decline, as the bearish sentiment has been fully released, and the futures price has found support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend due to the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend under the influence of OPEC+ countries' decision to significantly increase production in September, which has increased supply pressure and led to a dominant bearish sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.40%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.47%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [8]. - As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points week - on - week and a significant decrease of 9.39 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a slight increase of 0.80 percentage points week - on - week and a significant increase of 7.76 percentage points year - on - year [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.2%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year - on - year and an increase of 0.6 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry [9]. - In July 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.5%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month but still in the expansion range [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000 vehicles, a decrease of 15% month - on - month and an increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.35%, a slight decrease of 1.57% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 4.85% month - on - month, and a slight increase of 3.09% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8453 million tons, a significant decrease of 84,900 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 141,800 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 111,600 tons compared with 1.7337 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.66%, a slight increase of 0.11% week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.27%, a slight increase of 0.55% week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 86.45%, a slight decrease of 2.34% week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 53.91%, a slight decrease of 0.93% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.70%, a slight increase of 0.98 percentage points week - on - week and a slight decrease of 1.69% month - on - month. As of August 8, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 99 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 18 yuan/ton week - on - week and a slight decrease of 25 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 803,300 tons, a significant increase of 153,000 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 235,700 tons month - on - month, and a slight increase of 26,300 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 293,800 tons, a slight decrease of 30,900 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 63,100 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 142,100 tons compared with 435,900 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 410, a slight decrease of 5 compared with the previous week and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a slight decrease of 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week and a significant decrease of 116,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant decrease of 3.029 million barrels week - on - week and a significant decrease of 5.659 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.006 million barrels, a slight increase of 453,000 barrels week - on - week; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a slight increase of 235,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 96.9%, a slight increase of 1.5 percentage points week - on - week, a slight increase of 2.2 percentage points month - on - month, and a significant increase of 6.4 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 156,023 contracts, a slight increase of 2,692 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared with the June average. The average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 249,973 contracts, a significant increase of 22,728 contracts week - on - week and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared with the June average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,400 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,550 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | - 1,150 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,410 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | 2,383 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | + 27 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 466.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.2 yuan/barrel | 489.8 yuan/barrel | - 11.2 yuan/barrel | - 23.0 yuan/barrel | + 11.4 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, inventory, and tire production rate; methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, inventory, and olefin production rate; and crude oil basis, inventory, and net position changes [17][30][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a stable and volatile trend after a round of rapid decline and full release of negative sentiment, with the price finding support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the rebound of domestic coal futures offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [6]. - The prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend under the dominance of bearish sentiment due to the decision of OPEC+ to continue significant production expansion in September [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 63.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.40%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.47% [9]. - As of August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 9.22 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.76 percentage points [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity [9]. - In July 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.5%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.3 percentage points but still in the expansion range [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10] Methanol - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a slight weekly increase of 0.26%, a monthly decrease of 3.28%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.46%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9302 million tons, a weekly increase of 31,300 tons, a significant monthly decrease of 56,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 312,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.55%, a slight weekly increase of 0.59%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.72%, a slight weekly increase of 0.41%; the acetic acid operating rate was 88.79%, a weekly decrease of 4.16%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.84%, a weekly decrease of 2.32% [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a monthly decrease of 2.67 percentage points. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 87 yuan/ton, a significant weekly increase of 249 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 21 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a significant weekly increase of 63,200 tons, a significant monthly increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 293,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 30,900 tons, a significant monthly decrease of 63,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,100 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a weekly decrease of 5 and a decrease of 72 compared to the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 30,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year decrease of 116,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant weekly decrease of 3.029 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.659 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.006 million barrels, a weekly increase of 453,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a weekly increase of 235,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 96.9%, a weekly increase of 1.5 percentage points, a monthly increase of 2.2 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.4 percentage points [13] - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 156,023 contracts, a weekly increase of 2,692 contracts and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared to the June average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 249,973 contracts, a significant weekly increase of 22,728 contracts and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared to the June average [14] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,500 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 14,550 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,420 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,388 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | +32 yuan/ton | +8 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 475.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.5 yuan/barrel | 501.0 yuan/barrel | - 4.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.6 yuan/barrel | +4.4 yuan/barrel | [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile and stable trend after the full release of negative sentiment, with the futures price finding support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile and weak trend under the dominance of bearish factors, dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and weak trend under the dominance of bearish sentiment, as the supply pressure increases after OPEC+ oil - producing countries decide to significantly expand production in September [5]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons or 0.91%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.70% to 75,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.42% to 564,600 tons. The storage rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the pick - up rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the storage rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the pick - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [8]. - As of August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year sharp decline of 9.22 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a week - on - week slight decline of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year slight increase of 2.76 percentage points [8]. - In the terminal retail sector, in June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry [8]. - From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%, and the new - car sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 44.3% of the total new - car sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.26%, a month - on - month slight decline of 3.28%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.46%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9302 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 31,300 tons, a month - on - month significant decline of 56,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 312,000 tons compared to 1.6182 million tons last year [10]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.55%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.59%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.72%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.41%. The acetic acid operating rate was 88.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4.16%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.84%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.32%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, a week - on - week slight decline of 0.70 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 2.67 percentage points. As of August 1, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 87 yuan/ton, a week - on - week significant recovery of 249 yuan/ton and a month - on - month slight recovery of 21 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a week - on - week significant increase of 63,200 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons. As of the week of July 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 324,700 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 16,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 75,600 tons compared to 400,300 tons last year [11][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the number of active oil rigs in the United States was 415, a week - on - week slight decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 67. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.314 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 41,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 14,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.7 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 7.698 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 6.358 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 690,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 238,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 95.4%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year significant increase of 5.3 percentage points [13]. - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 156,023 contracts, a week - on - week slight increase of 2,692 contracts and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared to the June average of 205,979 contracts. As of July 29, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 249,973 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 22,728 contracts and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared to the June average of 186,283 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the futures price of the main contract was 14,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis was +35 yuan/ton, a change of - 55 yuan/ton [16]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day; the futures price of the main contract was 2,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis was +20 yuan/ton, a change of +3 yuan/ton [16]. - The spot price of crude oil was 495.7 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/barrel from the previous day; the futures price of the main contract was 514.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 13.6 yuan/barrel from the previous day; the basis was - 18.6 yuan/barrel, a change of +12.9 yuan/barrel [16]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spread, inventory, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Research Institute [17][30][43]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][5] 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend on Friday. In the short - term, it will be volatile, and in the medium - term, it will also be volatile [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.71% to 528.2 yuan/barrel on Thursday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend on Friday [5] Core Logic - Geopolitical risk premium increase is the main driving force for the recent oil price rebound. The Trump administration's tough stance on Russia may lead to restricted energy trade. While OPEC+ maintains the production increase plan for September, the actual supply growth may fall short of expectations. The peak summer demand season combined with tight inventories may support short - term oil prices [5] Time - cycle Views - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and slightly weak with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and an intraday trend of being volatile and slightly strong [1][5] - Due to improved macro factors and enhanced geopolitical sentiment in the oil market, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend on Thursday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - **Short - term**: The short - term trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile [1] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile [1] - **Intraday**: The intraday trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile and slightly strong [1][5] 3.2 Price and Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.66% to 532.5 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Driving Logic - **Macro Factors**: This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The risk appetite of the commodity market has recovered under the improved macro factors [5] - **Geopolitical Factors**: US President Trump declared his disappointment with Russian President Putin and will shorten the deadline given to Putin, which has enhanced the geopolitical sentiment in the oil market [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. After a previous sharp rise, bulls have substantial profits. With the temporary cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has been reversed [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to maintain a volatile and weak trend. Affected by the decline of domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. As China and the US conduct the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden, the macro - sentiment has improved [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 640,400 tons, a 0.91% increase. The utilization rate of tire production capacity has slightly increased, but the overall shipment is flat and inventory has slightly risen. The inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in June 2025 was 56.6%, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%. The weekly production was 1.8989 million tons. The inventory in East and South China ports was 587,100 tons. The profit of methanol - to - olefins futures has decreased significantly [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422. US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels. The net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | 15,010 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 110 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2442 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2434 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | + 8 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 515.0 yuan/barrel | + 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: There are charts related to rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire and semi - steel tire operating rate trends [17][19][21] - **Methanol**: Although not detailed in the text, it can be inferred that there are relevant charts for methanol. - **Crude Oil**: Although not detailed in the text, it can be inferred that there are relevant charts for crude oil.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to profit - taking by long positions and a collective correction in the domestic commodity futures market [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend, influenced by the decline of domestic coal futures and a weak supply - demand fundamental [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to stabilize with fluctuations as the negative impact of production increase fades, the original production increase plan is realized, and it is the peak oil - consuming season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 640,400 tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.70% to 75,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.42% to 564,600 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also changed [8]. - As of July 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a 1.93 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 10.06 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a 0.25 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.98 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [8]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a 5.7 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year and a 3.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%, accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%, a 1.06% increase from the previous week, a 6.35% decrease from the previous month, and a 15.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly average methanol production was 1.8989 million tons [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed to varying degrees. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.42%, and the methanol to olefin futures profit decreased significantly [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 587,100 tons, a 0.89 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a 53,000 - ton increase from the previous month, and a 254,100 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422, a decrease of 2 from the previous week and 55 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week and 27,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 419 million barrels, a significant decrease of 3.169 million barrels from the previous week and 17.492 million barrels from the same period last year. The refinery operating rate was 95.5% [13]. - As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased significantly compared to the previous week, while the net long positions in Brent crude oil also decreased significantly [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | 15,010 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 110 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,442 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2,434 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | + 8 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 515.0 yuan/barrel | + 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes [17][29][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to profit - taking by long positions and a collective decline in the black - chain commodity futures on Monday [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend, affected by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to remain in a volatile consolidation pattern, as the bearish impact of production increases has been digested, and it is currently the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons (0.28%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.39%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.13%. The inbound and outbound rates of both types of warehouses decreased [8]. - As of July 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a week - on - week increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. Production in some enterprises returned to normal, but overall shipments were flat, and inventory increased slightly [8]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%, accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.35%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 15.35%. The weekly average methanol output was 1.8989 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 376,500 tons [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE were 29.96% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%), 5.31% (unchanged), 92.95% (a week - on - week increase of 0.18%), and 57.16% (a week - on - week increase of 2.32%) respectively. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.15%. The futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 307 yuan/ton, a significant week - on - week decrease of 225 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 218 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 587,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 254,100 tons. The inventory in East China ports was 416,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 29,300 tons), and in South China ports was 170,400 tons (a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons) [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 55. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 102,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year decrease of 27,000 barrels/day [13]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 17.492 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.863 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 455,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402.5 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 200,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 95.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [13]. - As of July 22, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 153,331 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 52,648 contracts compared to the June average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 227,245 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 11,576 contracts and a significant increase of 40,622 contracts compared to the June average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,350 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,065 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | +285 yuan/ton | +520 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,530 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | 2,404 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | +126 yuan/ton | +115 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 483.6 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 505.9 yuan/barrel | - 7.0 yuan/barrel | - 22.4 yuan/barrel | +7.3 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc. [17][19][21] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, etc. [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes, etc. [42][44][46]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation - weak respectively [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.32% to 501.9 yuan/ton on the night session of last Friday [5]. Driving Factors - Macro factors improved as the US and Europe reached a trade agreement last weekend, and China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden at the end of this month, leading to a recovery in the risk appetite of the commodity market [5]. - The sharp decline of black commodities on last Friday weakened the bullish atmosphere in the commodity futures market and increased the bearish sentiment. Currently, the supply - demand structure of the crude oil market is strong on both sides, and macro sentiment is dominant [5]. Forecast - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillation - weak trend on Monday this week [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run strongly, showing a short - term, medium - term and intraday trend of being volatile, with an intraday bias towards strength [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 closed slightly up 0.42% to 506.0 yuan/barrel on Wednesday night, and is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [5]. Core Logic - Macro factors have improved. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement, China and the US will hold economic and trade meetings in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and there are rumors that Europe and the US will reach a tariff agreement, which has increased the risk appetite in the commodity market [5]. - Although 8 major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, as the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan is gradually realized, the room for further production expansion is limited in the future [5].