Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shock" rating for treasury bonds. [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The treasury bond futures market showed a sideways fluctuation on Wednesday, and the short - term treasury bond futures may fluctuate. Traders are advised to conduct band operations. [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher, slightly rushed up and then fluctuated and declined. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.01%, the 10 - year T2606 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2606 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.02%. [1] 2. Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Wednesday, the central bank carried out 78.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 20.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. It also carried out 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with 450 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank's net investment on that day was 108 billion yuan. [1] - **Funds Market**: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.44%, compared with 1.41% in the previous trading day. [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.11 BP to 1.31%, that of 5 - year treasury bonds fell 0.47 BP to 1.57%, that of 10 - year treasury bonds fell 0.39 BP to 1.82%, and that of 30 - year treasury bonds remained flat at 2.35%. [1] - **International News**: According to the Iranian Students' News Agency on the 25th, Iran rejected the US - proposed cease - fire agreement. Iran put forward five conditions for a cease - fire, including a complete stop to aggression and assassinations, ensuring that war will not be imposed on Iran again, war reparations, ending the war on all fronts and by all resistance organizations, and recognizing Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. [1] 3. Market Logic - In the first two months of this year, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment, export, and social retail sales all exceeded market expectations, and the growth of added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size also exceeded expectations. The year - on - year decline in the sales area of new homes continued to be large, and the overall price of second - hand homes continued to decline month - on - month. The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - hunting. On March 18th, the central bank pointed out that it would guide and regulate the interest rate level according to the economic and financial situation and macro - economic operation. [1] 4. Market Performance of Other Indexes - On Wednesday, the Wind All A Index gapped higher, rose in the early session and then traded sideways until the close, closing a small positive line, up 1.79%. The trading volume was 2.19 trillion yuan, a slight increase from 2.10 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. [2] 5. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Monday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 rising 0.55%, the 10 - year T2606 rising 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2606 rising 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rising 0.02%. Affected by the news of the US - Iran war over the weekend and the stock market correction, bond futures rose as expected. Bond futures may oscillate in the short term. The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 rising 0.55%, the 10 - year T2606 rising 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2606 rising 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rising 0.02% [1] 2. Important Information - **Open Market**: On Monday, the central bank conducted 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with no reverse repurchase due on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 19 billion yuan [1] - **Funding Market**: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.31% (1.32% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.46% (1.50% in the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year government bonds decreased by 0.10 BP to 1.36%, that of 5 - year bonds decreased by 0.46 BP to 1.54%, that of 10 - year bonds increased by 0.08 BP to 1.78%, and that of 30 - year bonds decreased by 0.30 BP to 2.27% [1] - **Overseas Data**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in February was 52.4, with a market expected value of 51.5 and a previous value of 52.6 [1] - **Geopolitical Situation**: US President Trump said on March 1 that the military operation against Iran might last about four weeks and that the US and Israel would continue the military operation against Iran until all goals were achieved. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said on March 2 that Iran would not negotiate with the US. The Israeli military chief of staff announced an "offensive against the Lebanese Hezbollah" [1] 3. Market Logic - In January, China's social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year - on - year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year - on - year. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan in January, with a market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 420 billion yuan year - on - year. In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing compared with the previous month. China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately in January, with the core CPI rising 0.3% month - on - month and the PPI rising 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a mild economic situation in January. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure would be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". The central bank said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant. On Monday, the Wind All - A Index opened lower, rose slightly, then fell back and rebounded, with the rebound continuing in the afternoon, reaching close to the previous closing level before falling back slightly. It closed with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows, down 0.40% for the whole day, and the trading volume was 3.05 trillion yuan, an increase from 2.51 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [1][2] 4. Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond futures market is expected to be in a short - term oscillation, and the impact of stock indices should be continuously monitored [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened roughly flat, with most showing narrow - range horizontal fluctuations. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.33%, while the 10 - year T2603, 5 - year TF2603, and 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [1] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 324 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, down from 1.42% the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.58%, up from 1.57% the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds rose compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.64 basis points to 1.41%, 5 - year bonds rose 0.40 basis points to 1.60%, 10 - year bonds rose 0.69 basis points to 1.83%, and 30 - year bonds fell 1.50 basis points to 2.29% [1] - Economic data: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 7,398.2 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase from the previous year. The operating income was 139.2 trillion yuan, a 1.1% increase from the previous year. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.3% year - on - year [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% year - on - year increase, meeting the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index in December rebounded 0.8 percentage points from November. In December last year, the year - on - year sales volume and housing prices of domestic real estate continued to decline, and the data in the first half of January this year also showed the same trend. On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure would remain at a necessary level. Recently, the central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost and maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system. On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, fell rapidly in the morning to find the bottom and then rebounded, and flattened after a slight rebound in the afternoon, closing up 0.14% from the previous trading day with a trading volume of 2.92 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day's 3.28 trillion yuan [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.31%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.05%. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.31%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.05% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.3 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.43%, also the same as the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly rose compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 1.75 basis points to 1.40%, the 5 - year rose 2.73 basis points to 1.67%, the 10 - year rose 2.45 basis points to 1.88%, and the 30 - year rose 2.82 basis points to 2.31% [1] - The US Supreme Court announced that it will make a ruling on the Trump tariff case this Friday (January 9th) [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce: All dual - use items are prohibited from being exported to Japanese military users [1] Market Logic - China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in December was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line, with the previous value at 49.2%. In December, the production index was 51.7%, and the new orders index was 50.8%, indicating that both manufacturing production and demand entered the expansion range. The service business activity index in December was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line, compared to 49.5% in the previous month. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's fourth - quarter meeting pointed out that it should grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation based on domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations. In December 2025, the central bank net injected 5 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading operations, conducting treasury bond trading operations for the third consecutive month. On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, rose unilaterally, and closed with a bald阳线. It closed 1.59% higher than the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 2.83 trillion yuan, continuing to expand from 2.57 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. On Tuesday, treasury bond futures opened significantly lower and consolidated at a low level throughout the day [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term treasury bond futures may fluctuate [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, with a slow decline in the morning session and a continuation in the afternoon. There was a late - session rally followed by a slight decline. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2512 remained flat [1] - On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 43.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan [1] - On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market was basically flat compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.32% for the day, and DR007 had a weighted average of 1.43% [1] - On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.50 BP to 1.50%, the 5 - year yield fell 0.06 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year yield fell 0.64 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year yield fell 0.50 BP to 2.18% [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the number of domestic tourist trips was 4.998 billion, an increase of 761 million compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 18.0% [1] - On October 22, local time, US President Trump canceled his meeting with Russian President Putin in Budapest and said it was time to impose sanctions on Russia [1] - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. In September, China's fixed - asset investment growth and total retail sales of consumer goods growth were lower than market expectations, while exports exceeded expectations. Industrial added value of large - scale industries increased more than expected, and the service production index was flat compared to August. Real estate sales continued to decline year - on - year in September and in the first half of October [1] - On October 18, the leaders of China - US economic and trade negotiations agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. On Wednesday, the Wind All - A Index opened lower, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed with a small positive star. The trading volume was 1.69 trillion yuan, a contraction compared to the previous trading day's 1.89 trillion yuan [2] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is oscillatory, with a short - term outlook of maintaining bottom - end oscillatory consolidation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - TL2512 is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, medium - term, and overall, with an intraday view of being weakly oscillatory. The core logic is that there are still long - term expectations of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. The driving force of Treasury bond futures is currently limited, with limited upside and downside space. The latest September financial data shows weak credit demand in the household sector and insufficient effective domestic demand, leading to expectations of a loose monetary policy in the long - term, which supports Treasury bond futures. However, there is a lack of short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the market's implied interest rate cut expectation is weak, resulting in insufficient short - term upward momentum. Recently, external uncertainties have increased market risk - aversion sentiment [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "oscillating" for TL, T, TF, and TS [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures showing strong performance. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.46%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The central bank conducted 612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 2.0633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 351.3 billion yuan [1] - On Thursday, the overnight inter - bank funding rate declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.33% for the day, down from 1.39% the previous day; DR007 had a weighted average of 1.51%, up from 1.44% the previous day [1] - On Thursday, most of the closing yields of inter - bank bond cash bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield fell 0.77 basis points to 1.49%, the 5 - year fell 0.57 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.39 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.68 basis points to 2.26% [1] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow reached 2.433 billion person - times, with a daily average of 304 million person - times, a 6.3% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record [1] - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic trips reached 888 million person - times, an increase of 123 million person - times compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024; domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the sixth consecutive month. The new order index in September was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The construction business activity index in September was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, showing a mild expansion, while the new order index for the service industry declined [2] - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - oriented approach and balances domestic and international factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly after a rally, and closed with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, larger than the previous trading day's 2.2 trillion yuan. Bond futures closed higher across the board without being affected by the stock market, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [2] - For trading - type investments, use a band - trading strategy [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures showing strong performance. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.46%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher on Thursday, fluctuated narrowly after a rally, and closed with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, larger than the previous trading day's 2.2 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - The central bank conducted 612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 2.0633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 351.3 billion yuan [1] - The overnight inter - bank funding rate declined on Thursday compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.33% for the day, down from 1.39% the previous day; DR007 had a weighted average of 1.51%, up from 1.44% the previous day [1] - Most of the closing yields of inter - bank bond cash bonds declined on Thursday compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield fell 0.77 basis points to 1.49%, the 5 - year fell 0.57 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.39 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.68 basis points to 2.26% [1] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow reached 2.433 billion person - times, with a daily average of 304 million person - times, a 6.3% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record [1] - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic trips reached 888 million person - times, an increase of 123 million person - times compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024; domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] Market Logic - China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the sixth consecutive month. The new order index in September was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The construction business activity index in September was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, showing a mild expansion, while the new order index for the service industry declined [2] - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - oriented approach and balances domestic and international factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] Trading Strategy - For trading - type investments, use a band - trading strategy [2]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.21% [1] - The North China 50 Index fell by 0.30%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,093.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 112.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,200 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] ETF and Bond Market - The 30-year government bond ETF (511130) saw a significant drop, down 8 basis points, with a trading volume exceeding 1.6 billion yuan and a turnover rate over 10% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF was established in March 2024 and is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2] - The index reflects the overall performance of government bonds with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [2] Economic Indicators - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policies, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, while the service sector business activity index was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - China's dollar-denominated exports in July grew by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 5.8% and the previous value of 5.9% [1] Bond Market Outlook - The bond futures market has shown weak performance due to rising risk appetite in the stock market since July, alongside strong internal economic fundamentals and easing external risk factors [2] - The expectation for monetary easing remains, as the policy rate's anchoring effect is strong, limiting the space for market interest rates to rise further [2] - In the short term, both upward and downward movements in market interest rates are expected to be limited, with bond futures likely to continue in a range-bound consolidation [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is that they will fluctuate in the short - term, with the short - term view of TL2509 being fluctuating, the medium - term view being fluctuating, and the intraday view being fluctuating and slightly stronger. The general reference view is fluctuating [1][5]. - Although the demand for Treasury bonds has been somewhat suppressed since July due to the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The upward and downward space for market interest rates is limited in the short - term, so Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Fluctuation | Fluctuation | Fluctuation and slightly stronger | Fluctuation | There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short - term is low [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is fluctuating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the reference view is fluctuating [5]. - **Core Logic**: Since July, the demand for Treasury bonds has been affected by the rise in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, resulting in weak performance of Treasury bond futures. However, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and the expectation of monetary easing still exists. As market interest rates approach policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term bottom of Treasury bond futures has been found, and the market will continue to observe the performance of the stock market. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term. Traders are advised to conduct band - style operations [1][2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Market Review] - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened flat across the board and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.02%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.01% [1] [Important Information] - **Open Market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 90 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Thursday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.46% (previous day: 1.47%), and DR007 had a weighted average of 1.52% (previous day: 1.53%) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.24 BP to 1.39%, 5 - year bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.52%, 10 - year bonds increased by 0.13 BP to 1.66%, and 30 - year bonds increased by 1.69 BP to 1.88% [1] - **US Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12 was 221,000 (expected: 235,000, previous value revised from 227,000 to 228,000). The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6% (highest since March this year, expected: 0.1%, previous value: - 0.90%) [1] - **Eurozone Data**: The final annual CPI rate in the Eurozone in June was 2% (expected: 2%, previous value: 2%), and the final monthly CPI rate was 0.3% (expected: 0.3%, previous value: 0.3%) [1] [Market Logic] - China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. In H1, China's fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year (market expected 3.7%, 1 - 5 months: 3.7%). In June, social consumer goods retail sales grew 4.8% year - on - year (market expected 5.6%, May: 6.4%), industrial added value above designated size grew 6.8% year - on - year (market expected 5.5%, May: 5.8%), and exports in US dollars grew 5.8% year - on - year (expected: 3.2%, previous value: 4.8%). However, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in H2 faces challenges and needs to boost domestic demand. Trump postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1, and the US will impose a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1. The global financial market was calm about the US tariff information. The Wind All - A Index rose unilaterally on Thursday, while Treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly [1][2] [Trading Strategy] - Traders are advised to conduct band - style operations [2]