Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is that they will fluctuate in the short - term, with the short - term view of TL2509 being fluctuating, the medium - term view being fluctuating, and the intraday view being fluctuating and slightly stronger. The general reference view is fluctuating [1][5]. - Although the demand for Treasury bonds has been somewhat suppressed since July due to the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The upward and downward space for market interest rates is limited in the short - term, so Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Fluctuation | Fluctuation | Fluctuation and slightly stronger | Fluctuation | There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short - term is low [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is fluctuating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the reference view is fluctuating [5]. - **Core Logic**: Since July, the demand for Treasury bonds has been affected by the rise in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, resulting in weak performance of Treasury bond futures. However, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and the expectation of monetary easing still exists. As market interest rates approach policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Morning session notice Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘全线平开，全天横向波动，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 主力合约 | TL2509 | 下跌 | 0.02%，10 | 年期 | T2509 | 上涨 | 0.02%，5 | 年期 | TF2509 | 上涨 | 0.02%， | 2 | 年期 | TS2509 | 上涨 | 0.01%。 | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of TL2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with an overall view of "oscillation" due to weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The overall short - term expectation is that Treasury bond futures will remain in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the weak macro - economic indicators and the increasing expectation of monetary easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. Geopolitical risks eased as Iran accepted a cease - fire plan with Israel, leading to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment [5]. - From a domestic macro perspective, the expectation of future interest rate cuts is clear, and there is strong support for Treasury bonds. The current macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, and a loose monetary environment is needed for macro - policies in the second half of the year. Also, the increasing downward pressure on the US economy and the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts have reduced the exchange - rate pressure [5]. - The possibility of an immediate interest rate cut is low as the policy effect of the May interest rate cut needs to be evaluated. Macro - policies in the second half of the year await guidance from the Politburo meeting in July, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bonds in the short term [5].

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，早盘震荡回落，午后先横向波动、临近尾盘 有一波拉升，全天波动幅度较小，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 上涨 | | | | | 0.10%，10 年期 T2509 上涨 0.09%，5 年期 TF2509 上涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 | | | | | 0.04%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 2149 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 2155 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期，当日实现净回笼 6 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率与上一交易日持平，DR001 全天加权平 | | | | | 均为 1.41%，上一交易日加权平均 1.41%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.55%，上一交易 | | | | | 日加权平均 1.55%。 | | | | TL、T、 | 3、现券市场：周三银行间国债现券收盘收益率较 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 4 日星期三 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二国债期货主力合约开盘多数小幅低开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期 国债期货主力合约 TL2509 上涨 0.03%，10 年期 T2509 下跌 0.04%，5 年期 TF2509 | | | | | 下跌 0.04%，2 年期 TS2509 下跌 0.04%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 4545 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 8300 亿元逆 回购到期，当日实现净回笼 3755 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：跨月之后，周二银行间资金市场短期利率较上一交易日下行，DR001 | | | | | 全天加权平均为 1.41% ...

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 119.400 yuan, while the 10-year main contract remained flat at 108.730 yuan [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.65 basis points to 1.9240%, and the 10-year government development bond yield rising by 0.45 basis points to 1.7140% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 215.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan for the day [2] - Liquidity remains ample, with overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates declining, indicating a stable funding environment ahead of month-end [2] - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is around 1.71%, showing little change from the previous day [2] News Highlights - During this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the average daily inbound and outbound personnel at national ports is expected to reach 2.15 million, a 12.2% increase from last year [3] - The Ministry of Finance reported that in April, a total of 253.4 billion yuan in new local government bonds were issued, with 230.1 billion yuan in special bonds [3] - The total issuance of local government bonds reached 693.3 billion yuan, indicating a potential increase in investment growth in May and June [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market is expected to continue its narrow fluctuations, with limited downside risk due to the central bank's support for liquidity [4] - Short-term 10-year government bond yields are projected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.7%, while 30-year bond yields may range from 1.85% to 1.95% [4] - A cautious approach is recommended, focusing on high-frequency economic data and funding dynamics, with attention to the upcoming PMI data [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - China's economic growth in April maintained resilience, with fixed - asset investment and consumption slightly falling short of expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than market expectations [1] - After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Geneva on May 12, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. After the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in May, it is unlikely to do so again in the short to medium term [1] - The 90 - day window period reached in the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a brief respite to the market, but this temporary measure did not eliminate long - term uncertainties [1] - Last Friday, the prices of Treasury bond futures contracts showed a slight decline and then a rebound, closing slightly higher for the day, forming a seesaw with the trend of the Wind All - A Index. Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Market Review - Last Friday, the 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond futures opened flat, while the 10 - year and 30 - year varieties opened lower. They fluctuated downward in the morning, bottomed out in the afternoon and then rose, and fluctuated horizontally in the second half of the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2509 rose 0.04%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.04%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1] Important Information - Open market: Last Friday, the central bank conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 106.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 3.6 billion yuan [1] - Money market: Last Friday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market rose compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.57% (1.48% the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.59% (1.57% the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: Last Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds fell 0.54 basis points to 1.47%, the 5 - year rose 0.01 basis points to 1.57%, the 10 - year rose 0.22 basis points to 1.72%, and the 30 - year rose 0.20 basis points to 1.89% [1] - The US President said on May 24 that it was "bad" that US cars could not be sold in the EU and planned to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1. On Sunday, the US President agreed to extend the deadline for the 50% tariff on the EU to July 9 [1] Market Logic - China's economic data in April showed that fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than market expectations, indicating that the Chinese economy maintained resilience in April [1] - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks on May 12, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. After the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in May, it is unlikely to do so again in the short to medium term [1] - The 90 - day window period from the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite but did not eliminate long - term uncertainties. The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts on Friday showed a slight decline and then a rebound, closing slightly higher, and may continue to oscillate in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “slightly long” rating for Treasury bonds in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View - The first - quarter economic data of China is good with GDP growing 5.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.2%. However, due to the US tariff increase, the Chinese economy will face challenges in the second quarter, and domestic incremental hedging policies may be introduced. Treasury futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, Treasury futures opened higher across the board. After rising in the morning, they declined. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury futures main contract TL2506 fell 0.08%, the 10 - year T2506 fell 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2506 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2506 fell 0.05% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 2180 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 2455 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275 billion yuan [1] - **Funds market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.60% (1.63% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.72% (1.65% the previous day) [1] - **Cash bond market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The 2 - year yield rose 0.56 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.91 BP to 1.55%, the 10 - year rose 0.29 BP to 1.66%, and the 30 - year rose 0.48 BP to 1.93% [1] - **Treasury bond issuance**: On April 24, the Ministry of Finance issued three special Treasury bonds, including 165 billion yuan of 5 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.45%, 50 billion yuan of 20 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.98%, and 71 billion yuan of 30 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.88% [1] - **Sino - US trade**: As of April 24, there were no Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The US should cancel all unilateral tariffs on China through equal dialogue [1] - **MLF operation**: The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on April 25, with 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan [1][3] 3.3 Market Logic - The good first - quarter economic data is due to policy support and export rush. But the US tariff increase will pose challenges to the Chinese economy in the second quarter. The issuance of special Treasury bonds on April 24 did not significantly impact the funds market. The Wande All - A Index fell slightly on Thursday, and Treasury futures declined in the afternoon. The high Sino - US tariffs are difficult to resolve in the short - term [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3]