Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term treasury bond futures may fluctuate [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, with a slow decline in the morning session and a continuation in the afternoon. There was a late - session rally followed by a slight decline. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2512 remained flat [1] - On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 43.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan [1] - On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market was basically flat compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.32% for the day, and DR007 had a weighted average of 1.43% [1] - On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.50 BP to 1.50%, the 5 - year yield fell 0.06 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year yield fell 0.64 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year yield fell 0.50 BP to 2.18% [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the number of domestic tourist trips was 4.998 billion, an increase of 761 million compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 18.0% [1] - On October 22, local time, US President Trump canceled his meeting with Russian President Putin in Budapest and said it was time to impose sanctions on Russia [1] - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. In September, China's fixed - asset investment growth and total retail sales of consumer goods growth were lower than market expectations, while exports exceeded expectations. Industrial added value of large - scale industries increased more than expected, and the service production index was flat compared to August. Real estate sales continued to decline year - on - year in September and in the first half of October [1] - On October 18, the leaders of China - US economic and trade negotiations agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. On Wednesday, the Wind All - A Index opened lower, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed with a small positive star. The trading volume was 1.69 trillion yuan, a contraction compared to the previous trading day's 1.89 trillion yuan [2] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。目前国债期货的驱动力量相对有限，上行空间与下行空间均较 为有限。最新公布的 9 月金融数据显示，居民部门的信贷需求仍偏弱，目前国内需求有效需求不足的 问题仍存，未来需要偏宽松的货币环境，政策宽松预期仍存，中长期来看对国债期货构成较强支撑。 不过短期内全面降息的必要性有所不足，目前市场利率隐含的降息预期较弱，短期内国债期货上行动 能有所不足。近期外部不确定性扰动升温，市场避险情绪有所升温。总的来看，短期内国债期货维持 底部震荡整理为主。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品 ...

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四国债期货主力合约开盘全线低开，早盘拉升一波后横向波动直至收盘，30 年期 品种走势较强，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2512 上涨 0.46%，10 年期 T2512 上涨 0.15%，5 年期 TF2512 上涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2512 上涨 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 6120 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展 11000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，当日有 2063 ...

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.21% [1] - The North China 50 Index fell by 0.30%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,093.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 112.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,200 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] ETF and Bond Market - The 30-year government bond ETF (511130) saw a significant drop, down 8 basis points, with a trading volume exceeding 1.6 billion yuan and a turnover rate over 10% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF was established in March 2024 and is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2] - The index reflects the overall performance of government bonds with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [2] Economic Indicators - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policies, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, while the service sector business activity index was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - China's dollar-denominated exports in July grew by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 5.8% and the previous value of 5.9% [1] Bond Market Outlook - The bond futures market has shown weak performance due to rising risk appetite in the stock market since July, alongside strong internal economic fundamentals and easing external risk factors [2] - The expectation for monetary easing remains, as the policy rate's anchoring effect is strong, limiting the space for market interest rates to rise further [2] - In the short term, both upward and downward movements in market interest rates are expected to be limited, with bond futures likely to continue in a range-bound consolidation [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is that they will fluctuate in the short - term, with the short - term view of TL2509 being fluctuating, the medium - term view being fluctuating, and the intraday view being fluctuating and slightly stronger. The general reference view is fluctuating [1][5]. - Although the demand for Treasury bonds has been somewhat suppressed since July due to the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The upward and downward space for market interest rates is limited in the short - term, so Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Fluctuation | Fluctuation | Fluctuation and slightly stronger | Fluctuation | There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short - term is low [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is fluctuating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the reference view is fluctuating [5]. - **Core Logic**: Since July, the demand for Treasury bonds has been affected by the rise in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, resulting in weak performance of Treasury bond futures. However, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and the expectation of monetary easing still exists. As market interest rates approach policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term bottom of Treasury bond futures has been found, and the market will continue to observe the performance of the stock market. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term. Traders are advised to conduct band - style operations [1][2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Market Review] - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened flat across the board and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.02%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.01% [1] [Important Information] - **Open Market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 90 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Thursday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.46% (previous day: 1.47%), and DR007 had a weighted average of 1.52% (previous day: 1.53%) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.24 BP to 1.39%, 5 - year bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.52%, 10 - year bonds increased by 0.13 BP to 1.66%, and 30 - year bonds increased by 1.69 BP to 1.88% [1] - **US Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12 was 221,000 (expected: 235,000, previous value revised from 227,000 to 228,000). The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6% (highest since March this year, expected: 0.1%, previous value: - 0.90%) [1] - **Eurozone Data**: The final annual CPI rate in the Eurozone in June was 2% (expected: 2%, previous value: 2%), and the final monthly CPI rate was 0.3% (expected: 0.3%, previous value: 0.3%) [1] [Market Logic] - China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. In H1, China's fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year (market expected 3.7%, 1 - 5 months: 3.7%). In June, social consumer goods retail sales grew 4.8% year - on - year (market expected 5.6%, May: 6.4%), industrial added value above designated size grew 6.8% year - on - year (market expected 5.5%, May: 5.8%), and exports in US dollars grew 5.8% year - on - year (expected: 3.2%, previous value: 4.8%). However, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in H2 faces challenges and needs to boost domestic demand. Trump postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1, and the US will impose a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1. The global financial market was calm about the US tariff information. The Wind All - A Index rose unilaterally on Thursday, while Treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly [1][2] [Trading Strategy] - Traders are advised to conduct band - style operations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of TL2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with an overall view of "oscillation" due to weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The overall short - term expectation is that Treasury bond futures will remain in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the weak macro - economic indicators and the increasing expectation of monetary easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. Geopolitical risks eased as Iran accepted a cease - fire plan with Israel, leading to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment [5]. - From a domestic macro perspective, the expectation of future interest rate cuts is clear, and there is strong support for Treasury bonds. The current macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, and a loose monetary environment is needed for macro - policies in the second half of the year. Also, the increasing downward pressure on the US economy and the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts have reduced the exchange - rate pressure [5]. - The possibility of an immediate interest rate cut is low as the policy effect of the May interest rate cut needs to be evaluated. Macro - policies in the second half of the year await guidance from the Politburo meeting in July, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bonds in the short term [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for the macro and financial sector's treasury bond varieties, the rating is "oscillation" [1] Core View - Treasury bond futures continued a narrow - range horizontal fluctuation pattern on Wednesday, and may continue to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended that trading - type investors conduct band operations [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board. The morning session saw an oscillatory decline, and in the afternoon, there was first a horizontal movement followed by a late - session rally. The daily fluctuation range was small. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 215.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 60 million yuan [1] - Funding market: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.41%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.55%, also the same as the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond fell 2.11 basis points to 1.46%, the 5 - year fell 1.47 basis points to 1.57%, the 10 - year fell 0.60 basis points to 1.67%, and the 30 - year fell 0.40 basis points to 1.89% [1] - On June 4th, it was announced that the US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, with an expected increase of 110,000 and a previous increase of 62,000. The US recruitment rate in May reached its lowest level since March 2023 [1] - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI index in May dropped to 49.9, with an estimated value of 52.0 and a previous value of 51.6 [1] Market Logic - China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in May was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month, with a previous value of 49.0%. The production index in May was 50.7%, returning to the expansion range; the new orders index in May was 49.8%, slightly below the boom - bust line. The PMI new export orders index in May was 47.5%, compared to a previous value of 44.7%. After the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks in May, it is helpful for the recovery of export orders to the US. The PMI purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex - factory price index in May were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, both 0.1 percentage points lower than in April, indicating continued pressure on industrial product prices. The finished goods inventory index in May was 46.5%, compared to a previous value of 47.3%, and the finished goods inventory index continued to contract, indicating that manufacturing enterprises are cautious about future demand expectations [1] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are recommended to conduct band operations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Treasury bond futures in the macro and finance sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Report's Core View - Treasury bond futures are expected to continue short - term oscillation, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the Treasury bond futures' main contracts opened slightly lower and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract TL2509 rose 0.03%, while the 10 - year T2509, 5 - year TF2509, and 2 - year TS2509 all fell 0.04% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 830 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [1] - **Funding Market**: After the month - end, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market on Tuesday declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.41% (previous trading day: 1.48%), and DR007's was 1.55% (previous trading day: 1.66%) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.14 basis points to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 1.57 basis points to 1.58%, the 10 - year rose 0.52 basis points to 1.68%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 basis points to 1.90% [1] - **Economic Data**: China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 48.3, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024, with an expected value of 50.7 and a previous value of 50.4. The OECD's economic outlook report on June 3rd expected global economic growth rates of 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the March forecast. The 2025 US GDP forecast was lowered from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the 2026 forecast from 1.6% to 1.5%. It was also predicted that the Fed's interest rate would remain unchanged this year. Eurozone's May harmonized CPI's year - on - year preliminary value was 1.9%, the first time in eight months below the ECB's 2% target, and the second time since mid - 2021, slightly lower than the expected 2% and the previous value of 2.2%. The month - on - month preliminary value was 0%, in line with expectations. The core harmonized CPI's year - on - year preliminary value was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4% and the previous value of 2.7% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - China's official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. The production index in May was 50.7%, returning to the expansion range; the new order index was 49.8%, slightly below the boom - bust line. The PMI new export order index in May was 47.5% (previous value: 44.7%), and the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks in May were conducive to the recovery of export orders to the US. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index in May were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, both 0.1 percentage points lower than in April, indicating continued pressure on industrial product prices. The finished product inventory index in May was 46.5% (previous value: 47.3%), and the continued contraction of the finished product inventory index showed that manufacturing enterprises were cautious about future demand expectations. There was no particularly unexpected information affecting the bond market during the Dragon Boat Festival, and the Treasury bond futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly on Tuesday, with short - term Treasury bond futures likely to continue oscillating [1][3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [3]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 119.400 yuan, while the 10-year main contract remained flat at 108.730 yuan [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.65 basis points to 1.9240%, and the 10-year government development bond yield rising by 0.45 basis points to 1.7140% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 215.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan for the day [2] - Liquidity remains ample, with overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates declining, indicating a stable funding environment ahead of month-end [2] - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is around 1.71%, showing little change from the previous day [2] News Highlights - During this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the average daily inbound and outbound personnel at national ports is expected to reach 2.15 million, a 12.2% increase from last year [3] - The Ministry of Finance reported that in April, a total of 253.4 billion yuan in new local government bonds were issued, with 230.1 billion yuan in special bonds [3] - The total issuance of local government bonds reached 693.3 billion yuan, indicating a potential increase in investment growth in May and June [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market is expected to continue its narrow fluctuations, with limited downside risk due to the central bank's support for liquidity [4] - Short-term 10-year government bond yields are projected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.7%, while 30-year bond yields may range from 1.85% to 1.95% [4] - A cautious approach is recommended, focusing on high-frequency economic data and funding dynamics, with attention to the upcoming PMI data [4]