特约评论员丨 杨志勇 编辑丨洪晓文 近日发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，"保持 合理的宏观税负水平"。关于宏观税负的提法，以前较为常见的是"稳定宏观税负"。宏观税负 提法变化的原因是什么？这里首先需要理解什么是合理的宏观税负。 关于宏观税负的讨论很多，多数围绕宏观税负轻重进行。合理的宏观税负也需要基于税负轻 重进行界定。宏观税负的轻重不是简单的宏观税负水平数据比大小，而是需要将财政收入、 税收收入和财政支出结合起来评估。以财政收入（税收收入）占GDP（国内生产总值）之比 表示宏观税负。宏观税负水平较低，并不能说明税负就轻。较低的宏观税负水平，对应的是 较少的财政支出，或者说收得少，但支出更少，那么这样的宏观税负水平是不合理的。较高 的宏观税负水平，对应较多的财政支出，或者说收得多，但支出也多，这样的宏观税负水平 反而可能是合理的，只要财政收入（税收收入）能用在合适的地方。如果合理的财政支出需 要缺乏充分的财力保障，就意味着财政收入（税收收入）存在缺口，这样的宏观税负水平就 不可能是合理的，必须作相应调整。 财政收支紧平衡在一定程度上是宏观税负水平有待调整的表现。破局财政 ...

所谓宏观税负是指政府收入占国内生产总值比重（GDP），它体现政府在国民收入分配中所占的份额， 及政府与企业、居民个人之间占有和支配社会资源的关系。宏观税负有不同口径，其中小口径宏观税负 是指全国税收收入占GDP比重，也是近年官方多次公开提及的口径。 为何此时中央对宏观税负有新的部署？ 中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇告诉第一财经，目前税收收入占GDP口径的宏观税负已经低于13%，与 政府需要承担的公共服务相比，明显偏低。全球宏观税负轻重不一，得和国情结合起来看，要综合财政 支出需要。否则，财政可持续性和政策效能就会受影响。 经过此前多年大规模减税降费等因素影响，其实中国各类口径的宏观税负均出现明显下降。以小口径的 宏观税负为例，根据官方数据测算，2024年小口径宏观税负（税收占gdp比重）约为12.9%，而十年前 的2015年这一数字约18%，十年间小口径宏观税负下降约5个百分点。2025年前三季度全国税收收入增 速（0.7%）明显低于经济增速（5.2%），今年预计小口径宏观税负大概率进一步走低。 中国宏观税负定调从求"稳定"转向了需"保持合理水平"。 近期，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的 ...

中国宏观税负定调从求"稳定"转向了需"保持合理水平"。 近期，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称"十五五"规划建议） 全文对外公开，其中在部署财政工作时提出，"保持合理的宏观税负水平"。 这是一个全新的提法。1994年中国实施分税制改革后，宏观税负止跌回升，2013年中央首次提出"稳定 宏观税负"，此后宏观税负趋稳。为了激发市场活力，2016年中央提出"降低宏观税负"，此后大规模减 税降费政策陆续落地，中国宏观税负明显下降。2021年之后，中央层面再次提出"稳定宏观税负"，而此 次则提出"保持合理的宏观税负水平"。 所谓宏观税负是指政府收入占国内生产总值比重（GDP），它体现政府在国民收入分配中所占的份额， 及政府与企业、居民个人之间占有和支配社会资源的关系。宏观税负有不同口径，其中小口径宏观税负 是指全国税收收入占GDP比重，也是近年官方多次公开提及的口径。 为何此时中央对宏观税负有新的部署？ 中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇告诉第一财经，目前税收收入占GDP口径的宏观税负已经低于13%，与 政府需要承担的公共服务相比，明显偏低。全球宏观税负轻重不一，得和国情结合起来看，要综合财 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic deployment of China's economic and social development for the next five years, emphasizing the role of proactive fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. Fiscal Policy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in focus towards "playing an active role in fiscal policy and enhancing fiscal sustainability," indicating a response to new domestic and international challenges [4][5]. - The continuation of expansionary fiscal policy is expected, as the plan emphasizes the need for increased fiscal support for economic development [6][7]. - The fiscal sustainability is highlighted as crucial for ensuring the normal operation of fiscal policies and providing adequate financial support for national goals [4][6]. Economic Context - China's general public budget revenue for the first three quarters of the year was 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while expenditures were 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% [7]. - The total government debt is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a government debt ratio of 68.7%, indicating manageable risk levels [7]. Enhancing Fiscal Sustainability - To enhance fiscal sustainability, it is essential to stabilize the macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives [8][9]. - The current narrow macro tax burden is around 13% of GDP, with expectations for it to gradually rise to a reasonable level of approximately 15% [9]. - Actions taken include the cancellation of tax exemptions on government bond interest and the expansion of the environmental tax base [9][10]. Future Directions - Future strategies should include establishing a long-term government debt management mechanism and enhancing the monitoring system for local government debt [10]. - There is a need for mid-term fiscal planning and addressing potential risks from the digital economy to improve the tax system's adaptability to new business models [10].

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy and enhancing fiscal sustainability as a response to complex domestic and international situations [1][2][3] Fiscal Policy - The plan indicates a continuation of expansionary fiscal policies, highlighting the need for fiscal measures to support economic development during the transition period [3][4] - The shift in focus to proactive fiscal policy reflects the urgent need for counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize the economy and foster new growth drivers [2][3] Fiscal Sustainability - The emphasis on enhancing fiscal sustainability is crucial for ensuring fiscal security, fulfilling government functions, and achieving national development goals [5][6] - Current fiscal challenges include insufficient effective demand and prominent fiscal revenue-expenditure contradictions, necessitating a focus on sustainable fiscal practices [5][6] Government Debt Management - The total government debt is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, indicating manageable risk levels [5] - Future strategies to enhance fiscal sustainability include stabilizing the macro tax burden and optimizing tax policies to ensure long-term fiscal health [5][6] Tax Policy Adjustments - The plan suggests maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden, with current levels around 13% of GDP, potentially rising to approximately 15% [6] - Actions taken include the removal of certain tax exemptions and the expansion of tax bases, indicating a shift towards a more robust tax system [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current fiscal pressure in China is closely related to previous constructive debt rather than an increase in "welfare" from enterprises and households. Improving expenditure efficiency and optimizing expenditure structure are crucial for sustainable fiscal health, followed by revenue enhancement [1][5]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Revenue and GDP Ratio - Experts have suggested increasing the fiscal revenue-to-GDP ratio, with former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei advocating for this in his 2025 paper on fiscal policy reform [2]. - The fiscal revenue ratio reflects the government's ability to concentrate financial resources from the economy and its macro-control capacity. China's fiscal revenue includes four main accounts: general public budget, government fund budget, state-owned capital operating budget, and social insurance fund budget [3]. Current Fiscal Situation - The macro tax burden in China is currently at 28.2%, with a reasonable target considered to be around 30%. This indicates room for increasing the fiscal revenue ratio [4]. - The decline in fiscal revenue ratio in recent years is attributed to large-scale tax cuts and fee reductions initiated since 2019, with the ratio dropping from 28-29% in 2018 to 26% in 2023 [9]. Historical Context - Since the tax-sharing system reform in 1994, the fiscal revenue ratio has seen fluctuations, peaking during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" at 21.4% and declining to an average of 16.7% during the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" [7]. - The fiscal revenue ratio has decreased from 35.7% in 2013 to 30.4% in 2022, a decline of 5.3 percentage points, while the average for 11 middle-income countries increased slightly during the same period [10]. Taxation and Revenue Enhancement - Lou Jiwei has indicated that there is potential to raise the value-added tax (VAT) rate, which currently stands at a low 13%, compared to an average of 20% in other countries [14]. - Other revenue sources, such as social security fund income and land transfer income, have limited growth potential, while the personal income tax has structural weaknesses that make reform challenging [14]. Alternative Revenue Strategies - Experts suggest enhancing the state-owned capital operating budget and reducing unfair tax incentives as alternative methods to increase fiscal revenue without raising tax rates [20][21]. - The state-owned capital operating budget, which is currently underutilized, could significantly contribute to fiscal revenue, especially as land finance declines [21]. Efficiency in Fiscal Spending - Improving the efficiency of government spending and investment is essential for maintaining economic vitality and ensuring public service provision [12][23]. - The focus should be on balancing revenue enhancement with expenditure efficiency, rather than solely increasing the fiscal revenue ratio [18].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and GDP Ratio - Recent discussions among experts suggest increasing the fiscal revenue as a percentage of GDP, with former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei advocating for this in his 2025 paper [2][3] - The fiscal revenue ratio reflects the government's ability to concentrate financial resources from the economy and its macro-control capacity [3] - Since the 1994 tax-sharing reform, the fiscal revenue ratio has shown a trend of initially increasing and then decreasing, with the ratio dropping from 21.4% during the 12th Five-Year Plan to an average of 16.7% in the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][6] Group 2: Tax Burden and Comparison with Other Economies - In 2024, the macro tax burden is reported at 28.2%, indicating room for improvement compared to the generally accepted 30% threshold [3] - China's macro tax burden is lower than 20% when measured by tax revenue as a percentage of GDP, which is below levels seen in OECD countries [4] - The decline in fiscal revenue ratio is linked to large-scale tax cuts implemented since 2019, which reduced the ratio from 28%-29% in 2018 to 26% in 2023 [6][7] Group 3: Need for Fiscal Reform - The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the need for a new round of fiscal reform due to the significant decline in fiscal revenue ratios [7][8] - The fiscal revenue ratio for 2023 is noted to be 26%, which is lower than the 30% average for similar income countries and significantly below the 35% average for developed countries [8] - Experts emphasize the importance of improving the efficiency of fiscal spending and optimizing the expenditure structure to ensure fiscal sustainability [4][9] Group 4: Alternative Revenue Sources - Experts suggest that besides increasing tax revenue, other methods to enhance fiscal revenue include expanding the state capital operating budget and reducing unfair tax incentives [14][15] - The state capital operating budget is seen as having significant potential for growth, especially as land finance diminishes [15][17] - The current state capital operating budget revenue is reported at 6783 billion yuan for 2024, with substantial profits from state-owned enterprises indicating room for increased contributions [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a transformation and optimization of China's active fiscal policy after 17 years of implementation, highlighting its effectiveness in promoting economic stability, quality growth, and social welfare, while also addressing existing shortcomings and future directions for fiscal policy [2][3][4][5][6]. Group 2 - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining economic stability with an average growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7%, and a growth rate of 4.7% from 2020 to 2023, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3% [3][4]. - The policy has shifted focus towards technology innovation and green development, enhancing the potential for long-term high-quality economic growth [4]. - Social welfare has improved, with rural minimum living standards increasing by 73.3% and urban low-income standards by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023, while the share of public budget for social welfare rose from 35.1% in 2013 to 40.7% in 2023 [5]. Group 3 - Current fiscal policy faces challenges, including an overemphasis on short-term fiscal balance, which may hinder long-term economic stability and increase hidden government debt risks [8][9]. - The effectiveness of large-scale tax reductions is diminishing, with the macro tax burden decreasing to 16.3% of GDP in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points from 2013, which may threaten fiscal sustainability [12]. - The structure of fiscal spending needs optimization, as there is a tendency to focus more on supply-side and enterprise support rather than on demand and household needs [13][24]. Group 4 - Future fiscal policy should transition from a balanced approach to a functional one, allowing for a potential breach of the 3% deficit limit to better support economic stability and growth [16][17]. - Systematic responses to long-term challenges such as aging population and digital economy risks are necessary, including enhancing social security systems and adapting tax policies to new economic realities [18][20]. - The focus should shift from income policies to expenditure policies, emphasizing direct government spending to stimulate demand and support households [22][25]. Group 5 - The article suggests that the term "active fiscal policy" should be reconsidered to "expansionary fiscal policy" to better convey the intended signals to the market and stabilize expectations [26][27].

Group 1: Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7% during the same period[7] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3%[7] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income support increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[9] Group 2: Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term fiscal risks, with a consistent deficit rate below 3% reflecting a balanced fiscal approach[11] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the macro tax burden needing stabilization as general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP fell to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points since 2013[17] - The fiscal expenditure structure requires optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support, leading to potential demand deficiencies[19] Group 3: Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Transition from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to better support economic stability[21] - Fiscal policy objectives should balance short-term economic stability with long-term systemic challenges, addressing issues like population aging and digital economy risks[23] - Shift focus from income policies to expenditure policies, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of fiscal measures[28]