何为宏观税负？ 何为宏观税负，一国的宏观税负水平高还是低？这是一个既简单又复杂但是必须厘清的有趣的基本问题，多年来财税部门、企业界和学界 对于这个问题的看法差异很大。笔者认为，这是因为各方面看问题的角度和计算口径不尽相同，计算宏观税负时使用的数据的来源也不尽 相同，结论自然不会相同。本文中使用的数据，除了另有说明者以外，都使用我国财政部、国家统计局等政府主管部门公布的最新数据。 目前税务部门所说的宏观税负，一般只包括本部门征收的增值税、消费税、企业所得税、个人所得税和房产税等16种税收，且一般不包括 海关代征的增值税和消费税。据国家税务总局统计，2024年，上述16种税收的净收入近154270亿元，占我国当年GDP的比重为11.4%。财 政部门所说的宏观税负，除了上述16种税收以外，还包括海关征收的关税、船舶吨税和代征的增值税、消费税。2024年，上述18种税收的 总额近175007亿元，占我国当年GDP的比重为13%。按照包括税收收入、收费等非税收入的全国财政收入即一般公共预算收入计算，2024 年的收入总额为219734亿元，占我国当年GDP的比重为16.3%。企业界所说的宏观税负，不仅包括纳入一般公共预 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing various internal and external challenges, China's economy demonstrates strong resilience, with regions like Suzhou and Shenzhen showcasing robust technological innovation. However, areas heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. and real estate are under significant pressure and undergoing difficult transitions, reflecting the diversity of the Chinese economy [1][2]. Economic Performance Insights - The chief economist of Guangdong Kaiyuan Securities, Luo Zhiheng, conducted research across several provinces, revealing that while the economy faces challenges, there is a notable emphasis on new industries such as renewable energy and biomedicine. Local governments are actively working to revitalize existing assets [2]. - The overall economic performance in 2025 can be summarized by two "better than expected" areas: export growth and capital market performance, while consumption recovery and real estate market trends fell short of expectations [3][4]. Export Trends - Export growth exceeded expectations, supported by China's strong production capacity and product competitiveness. Some companies reported that while short-term orders remained stable, they faced challenges in shipping due to uncertainties, leading to increased inventory costs [4][5]. - The export market is diversifying, with a significant decrease in the proportion of exports to the U.S. and an increase in exports to ASEAN and Africa, which is expected to reach 6% by 2025. Additionally, the structure of exports is upgrading from low-end consumer goods to high-end capital goods and intermediate products [5][6]. Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market's performance has also surpassed expectations, driven by breakthroughs in AI and improvements in market regulations, which have enhanced its attractiveness. By September 2025, the technology and electronics sector's market value surpassed that of the banking sector, indicating a significant shift in economic structure [6][7]. Consumption and Real Estate Challenges - Consumption recovery has not met market expectations, and the real estate market continues to face challenges, necessitating collaborative efforts to stabilize it. The central economic work conference emphasized the need to prioritize domestic demand expansion and stabilize the real estate market [7][8]. Income Distribution Reform - To boost consumption, key reforms in income distribution are essential, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity, willingness, and the adaptability of supply to demand. This involves improving residents' income and addressing public resource allocation [8][9]. - The optimization of national income distribution is crucial, with residents' income currently at 62%, which is slightly below the global average. The low proportion of property income and labor remuneration needs to be addressed to enhance overall consumption [9][10]. Policy Recommendations - To increase residents' income and stimulate consumption, several measures are proposed, including strengthening the capital market, enhancing state-owned enterprise profit contributions, and encouraging wage increases through fiscal incentives [10][11]. - Improving public services and welfare investments is vital for enhancing residents' quality of life and boosting consumption potential, creating a positive economic cycle [11][12]. Future Focus Areas - In 2026, key areas of focus will include global economic and geopolitical risks, breakthroughs in domestic income distribution reform, addressing low growth in fiscal revenue, and optimizing local government and microeconomic incentives to drive economic development [18][19].

Core Insights - The chief economist of Guangdong Kai Securities, Luo Zhiheng, emphasizes that despite facing various internal and external challenges, the Chinese economy demonstrates strong resilience, particularly in regions like Suzhou and Shenzhen, which showcase robust technological innovation [2][4] - The economic landscape is characterized by diverse regional pressures, especially in areas heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. and real estate, indicating a challenging transition phase [2][4] - Luo identifies two areas of economic performance that exceeded expectations: export growth and capital market performance, while consumption recovery and real estate market trends fell short of expectations [3][6] Export Performance - Export growth has surpassed expectations, supported by China's strong production capacity and product competitiveness, with a notable shift towards diversification in export markets, particularly increasing exports to ASEAN and Africa [4][5] - The structure of exports is evolving from low-end consumer goods to higher-end capital goods and components, driven by demand from Southeast Asia and Africa as they undergo industrialization [5][6] Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market has shown better-than-expected performance, driven by advancements in AI and ongoing improvements in market regulations, which have enhanced market attractiveness and reflected economic structural changes [6][7] - The technology sector has emerged as a leading market segment, surpassing traditional banking sectors in market capitalization, indicating a significant shift in economic dynamics [6] Consumption and Real Estate Challenges - Consumption recovery has not met market expectations, necessitating further policy support to stimulate demand [6][7] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a need for collaborative efforts to stabilize the sector, as indicated by the central economic work conference's emphasis on expanding domestic demand [6][7] Income Distribution and Policy Recommendations - Luo highlights the importance of income distribution reform to enhance consumption capacity and willingness, suggesting that improving public service investment in healthcare, education, and pensions can stimulate consumer spending [8][9] - Recommendations include increasing the share of labor income and property income for residents, enhancing corporate profit distribution, and establishing a "rural residents' income increase guidance fund" to support wage growth [9][10] Future Focus Areas - Key issues for 2026 include global economic and geopolitical risks, progress in domestic income distribution reform, strategies to address low fiscal revenue growth, and optimizing local government incentives to drive economic development [17]

Group 1: Tax Revenue Trends - Since 2013, China's tax revenue growth has consistently lagged behind GDP growth, indicating a downward trend in tax revenue[2] - Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has declined from 18.7% in 2012 to 13.0% in 2024, marking the lowest level since 2001[15] - The average annual growth rate of tax revenue from 2013 to 2023 is only 4.4%, significantly lower than the 20.3% from 2005 to 2012[20] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Tax Revenue - The shift in China's economic development from supply shortages to demand insufficiency has significantly impacted tax revenue growth[22] - The transition from real estate-driven growth to new productive forces has created a mismatch between tax sources and revenue, leading to a decline in tax revenue growth[25] - The reliance on tax cuts and fee reductions has hindered the effectiveness of fiscal policies, resulting in a weak tax base expansion effect[30] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The tax system's design, characterized by overlapping taxation, exacerbates revenue volatility, especially during economic downturns[32] - The progressive nature of certain taxes can amplify revenue fluctuations, causing tax revenue to decline faster than economic value during downturns[34] - The existing tax structure has not adapted to the evolving economic landscape, particularly in the service and digital economy sectors, leading to further revenue challenges[28]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the macroeconomic outlook for China and Japan, focusing on fiscal revenue and monetary policy implications for 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][8][10]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Fiscal Revenue Outlook for 2026**: - China's broad fiscal revenue is expected to stabilize and increase, driven by stable macro tax burdens, anti-involution policies, performance of special taxes, and enhanced tax collection measures [1][2][3][4]. - The overall fiscal revenue is projected to show uncertainty but trend towards stability [4]. 2. **Factors Influencing China's Fiscal Revenue**: - **Stable Macro Tax Burden**: Emphasis on maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden and regulating tax incentives to address the ongoing decline in macro tax levels [3]. - **Anti-Involution Policies**: These policies are anticipated to help improve prices in 2026, particularly benefiting domestic value-added tax revenues from manufacturing and wholesale sectors [3]. - **Performance of Special Taxes**: The shift towards domestic demand may reduce the drag from export tax refunds, while higher trading volumes in the securities market could enhance stamp duty contributions [3]. - **Strengthened Tax Collection Measures**: Increased coverage and regulation of personal income tax and compliance requirements for local government investment incentives are expected to improve fiscal stability [3]. 3. **Japan's Economic Stimulus and Fiscal Challenges**: - Japan's government has introduced a ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus plan, primarily targeting inflation and social subsidies, which is expected to raise the fiscal deficit to 3.0% in 2026 [1][8]. - The effectiveness of Japan's fiscal expansion is anticipated to be weaker compared to the U.S. and Germany, with a projected GDP impact of only 0.5 percentage points [8][9]. 4. **Market Risks and Volatility**: - The combination of fiscal expansion and monetary tightening in Japan has raised risks of a reversal in yen carry trades, particularly as the Bank of Japan shifts towards a hawkish stance [8][10]. - Current market conditions show a balanced position in yen trading, with net long positions emerging, indicating a more stable environment compared to previous extremes [11][12]. 5. **U.S. Economic Data and Implications**: - Recent U.S. economic data, including a decline in ADP employment figures and stagnant PCE consumption growth, suggest a weakening labor market and potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The records highlight the importance of monitoring the interplay between U.S. and Japanese monetary policies, particularly during periods of contrasting stances, which could create volatility in the markets [10]. - The potential for Japan's fiscal measures to lead to increased inflationary pressures, despite initial subsidies aimed at reducing costs, is a critical consideration for future economic stability [9][12].

Core Insights - The report reveals that in 2024, 5,091 listed companies in China contributed approximately 39,727 billion yuan in actual tax payments, remaining stable compared to 2023, accounting for about 22.7% of the national tax revenue [1][2] Group 1: Tax Contributions and Distribution - The top 100 listed companies contributed around 73% of the total tax payments, indicating a significant concentration of tax contributions among a small percentage of companies [3] - Major contributors include China National Petroleum (3,961 billion yuan) and Sinopec (3,313 billion yuan), followed by major banks and companies like Agricultural Bank of China and China Mobile, each exceeding 1,000 billion yuan in tax payments [3] - The average tax payment per listed company was 7.8 million yuan, with a median of 0.53 million yuan [4] Group 2: Industry Contributions - The mining, financial, and manufacturing sectors accounted for nearly 77% of the total tax contributions from listed companies, with the mining sector alone contributing about 1 trillion yuan [4][9] - The manufacturing sector saw the highest growth in tax contributions, increasing by approximately 226 million yuan, while the real estate sector experienced the largest decline at -28% [9] Group 3: Ownership Structure and Tax Burden - State-owned enterprises represented about 30% of listed companies but contributed nearly 80% of the total tax payments, highlighting the dominance of state-owned firms in tax contributions [9] - The average tax burden for listed companies has decreased to approximately 5.6% in 2024, down from 8.9 yuan per 100 yuan of revenue in 2015, reflecting the impact of tax reduction policies [10] - The mining and financial sectors had the highest tax burden per 100 yuan of revenue, at around 12 yuan, while the manufacturing sector had a lower burden of about 4 yuan [10] Group 4: Emerging Sectors - Companies related to digital currency and digital government concepts had relatively low tax contributions, indicating potential for growth in tax contributions from these sectors [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a reasonable macro tax burden level, emphasizing that it should be assessed in conjunction with fiscal revenue, tax revenue, and fiscal expenditure, rather than merely comparing macro tax burden levels in isolation [1][5][7]. Summary by Sections Macro Tax Burden Definition - A reasonable macro tax burden is defined by the ratio of fiscal revenue (tax revenue) to GDP, indicating that a low macro tax burden does not necessarily equate to a light tax burden if it corresponds to insufficient fiscal expenditure [1][5]. Fiscal Balance and Revenue Generation - The article highlights that a tight fiscal balance indicates a need for adjustment in the macro tax burden, suggesting that increasing revenue and controlling expenditure are crucial paths to address this issue [2]. Historical Context of Tax Burden - Since the 1994 fiscal reform, the ratio of fiscal revenue to GDP has increased from 10.68% to 20.97% by 2016, providing substantial financial support for national development [5]. However, from 2017 to 2024, this ratio has been on a downward trend due to large-scale tax cuts, dropping to 16.29% by 2024 [6][7]. Micro and Macro Tax Burden Relationship - The article stresses the importance of considering both macro and micro tax burdens together, as increasing taxes on struggling micro entities could lead to their disappearance, ultimately harming long-term revenue generation [9]. Quality of Fiscal Revenue - The decline in tax revenue as a proportion of total fiscal revenue raises concerns about the quality of fiscal income, as reliance on non-tax revenue can lead to instability [10]. Tax Policy and Economic Growth - The article notes that since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," over 10 trillion yuan has been allocated for tax reductions and refunds, which is essential for implementing active fiscal policies [11]. Comparison of Micro Tax Burdens - It is essential to compare the tax burdens of different micro entities, ensuring that those with greater capacity contribute more, while those with less capacity contribute less or not at all [13]. New Economy and Tax Revenue - The emergence of new economic sectors necessitates a tax system that can effectively convert new tax sources into revenue, as traditional tax sources are declining [16]. Real vs. Nominal Tax Burden - The article warns that nominally low macro tax burdens may mask a reality where significant portions of tax revenue are returned to businesses through incentives, indicating that the actual tax burden may be lower than reported [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government's macro tax burden policy has shifted from seeking "stability" to maintaining a "reasonable level" of macro tax burden, indicating a new approach to fiscal policy and public service funding [1][4]. Summary by Sections Macro Tax Burden Definition and Historical Context - Macro tax burden refers to the proportion of government revenue to GDP, reflecting the government's share in national income distribution and its relationship with enterprises and individuals [1]. - Since the implementation of the tax-sharing system reform in 1994, the macro tax burden has fluctuated, with significant reductions following large-scale tax cuts initiated in 2016 [1][2]. Current Tax Burden Levels - As of 2024, the small-caliber macro tax burden is projected to be approximately 12.9%, down from about 18% a decade ago, indicating a decline of around 5 percentage points over ten years [2]. - The general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP has decreased to 16.8%, and the total government budget (after removing duplications) is below 30% of GDP [3]. Implications of the New Policy - The shift to "maintaining a reasonable level" emphasizes the need for a balanced approach, avoiding both excessively high and low tax burdens, which could impair fiscal capacity and public service provision [4][6]. - A low macro tax burden may hinder the government's ability to provide essential public services, while a high burden could stifle market vitality [4][6]. Recommendations for Future Tax Policy - The reasonable level of macro tax burden should be dynamic, adapting to economic development and public service needs, rather than being a fixed value [6]. - Current recommendations include stabilizing the tax burden, optimizing tax structures, and enhancing the income of middle and low-income groups to ensure fiscal sustainability [6][7]. Tax Incentives and Fair Competition - There is a call for the cleanup and standardization of tax incentive policies to ensure fair competition across industries, as existing policies may lead to uneven tax burdens and market distortions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has shifted its focus from "stabilizing macro tax burden" to "maintaining a reasonable level of macro tax burden," indicating a new approach to fiscal policy that considers the balance between tax revenue and public service needs [1][4]. Summary by Sections Macro Tax Burden Overview - Macro tax burden refers to the proportion of government revenue to GDP, reflecting the government's share in national income distribution and its relationship with enterprises and individuals [1]. - The small-caliber macro tax burden, which is the ratio of national tax revenue to GDP, has significantly decreased from approximately 18% in 2015 to an estimated 12.9% in 2024 [2]. Recent Changes and Implications - The current macro tax burden is below 13%, which is considered low compared to the public service needs, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and policy effectiveness [2][3]. - The central government's new directive emphasizes the need for a reasonable macro tax burden that aligns with economic and social development, rather than merely stabilizing it [4]. Economic Context - The decline in macro tax burden is attributed to years of large-scale tax reductions, with the latest figures showing a significant drop in various tax burden metrics [2][3]. - The need for increased local fiscal capacity is highlighted, as the current fiscal environment is tight, which may lead to a historical shift in the ratios of fiscal revenue to GDP [3]. Reasonableness of Tax Burden - The concept of a "reasonable" macro tax burden is dynamic and should adapt to economic development and public service needs, rather than being a fixed value [5]. - A balance is necessary; while a lower tax burden can stimulate market activity, it may also hinder the government's ability to provide essential public services [5][6]. Policy Recommendations - To maintain a reasonable macro tax burden, it is suggested to clean up and standardize tax incentives, as current policies may lead to uneven tax burdens across industries and affect market competition [6]. - Recent actions include the cancellation of certain tax exemptions and adjustments to various industry-related tax policies to ensure a fairer tax environment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic deployment of China's economic and social development for the next five years, emphasizing the role of proactive fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. Fiscal Policy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in focus towards "playing an active role in fiscal policy and enhancing fiscal sustainability," indicating a response to new domestic and international challenges [4][5]. - The continuation of expansionary fiscal policy is expected, as the plan emphasizes the need for increased fiscal support for economic development [6][7]. - The fiscal sustainability is highlighted as crucial for ensuring the normal operation of fiscal policies and providing adequate financial support for national goals [4][6]. Economic Context - China's general public budget revenue for the first three quarters of the year was 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while expenditures were 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% [7]. - The total government debt is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a government debt ratio of 68.7%, indicating manageable risk levels [7]. Enhancing Fiscal Sustainability - To enhance fiscal sustainability, it is essential to stabilize the macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives [8][9]. - The current narrow macro tax burden is around 13% of GDP, with expectations for it to gradually rise to a reasonable level of approximately 15% [9]. - Actions taken include the cancellation of tax exemptions on government bond interest and the expansion of the environmental tax base [9][10]. Future Directions - Future strategies should include establishing a long-term government debt management mechanism and enhancing the monitoring system for local government debt [10]. - There is a need for mid-term fiscal planning and addressing potential risks from the digital economy to improve the tax system's adaptability to new business models [10].