实际利率下降
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瑞银财管:料2026年中黄金见3900美元 亚洲货币未来一年或升值4%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 11:03
Group 1 - UBS Wealth Management predicts gold prices may rise further, potentially reaching $3,900 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by declining real interest rates, a weaker dollar, and strong investment demand amid geopolitical risks [1] - The firm expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates by an additional 75 basis points before Q1 2026, while the U.S. economy is not anticipated to enter a recession [1] - In Asia, additional monetary and fiscal support measures are being implemented, with expectations of a stronger Asian currency due to the rebound of the renminbi and exporters converting significant dollar revenues back to local currency [1] Group 2 - UBS believes the Chinese stock market has not yet peaked, with significant household savings expected to flow into the market, leading to potential revaluation in sectors like robotics, making Chinese tech stocks a preferred choice [2]
高盛:升香港交易所(00388)目标价至500港元 上调盈测 维持“买入”评级
智通财经网· 2025-07-29 03:46
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised the earnings per share forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by approximately 4% based on better-than-expected average daily trading volume [1] - The target price for HKEX was increased by 11%, from HKD 450 to HKD 500, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times for 2026 [1] - Despite the upward revision of earnings estimates, HKEX's stock price remains about 20% lower than its peak in 2021, even as average daily trading volume in cash equities has reached a historical high of over HKD 200 billion [1] Group 2 - The number of IPO applications is nearing the peak levels of 2021, but the pace of new listings is still in the mid-cycle [2] - Key market activity indicators, such as turnover rate and the ratio of small to large-cap stock trading, are above the historical 90th percentile, yet the market's valuation relative to GDP is at historical average levels [1][2] - The average year-on-year growth in earnings per share for HKEX is projected to reach 42% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a 29% growth expected in Q2 2025, which is 3 to 4 times the normal growth rate [2]
中证协召开首席经济学家例会 多位建议引导中长期资金流入供应链产业链相关领域
news flash· 2025-06-30 11:52
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting is the recognition of the evolving characteristics of global industrial and supply chains, which are shifting towards "nearshoring," "localization," and "diversification" [1] - It is suggested that China will develop a parallel system of high-end core industrial chains with Europe and the United States, alongside a cross-sectional system of low-value-added basic industrial chains [1] - There is a recommendation to enhance policy coordination to attract more medium- to long-term capital into supply chain-related sectors, aiming to stabilize market expectations and strengthen market confidence to support enterprise development [1] Group 2 - The meeting emphasizes the need for increased national subsidy policies to stimulate consumption scenarios [1] - It is proposed that these subsidies could help drive down actual interest rates [1]