Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its average daily trading volume forecasts for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting positive market data and institutional targets for the Hang Seng Index [1] Group 1: Trading Volume and Earnings Forecast - The average daily trading volume forecast for HKEX has been increased to HKD 230 billion, HKD 193 billion, and HKD 219 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - Earnings per share estimates have been raised by 5%, 3%, and 2% to HKD 12.5, HKD 10.9, and HKD 11.8 for the same years [1] - The target price for HKEX has been adjusted from HKD 430 to HKD 464, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Group 2: Southbound Trading and Market Participation - The contribution of southbound trading to HKEX's overall average daily trading volume is expected to nearly double from approximately 16% in Q1 of last year to nearly 28% in the current third quarter [1] - Increased participation from a broader base of domestic investors, particularly retail investors, indicates further potential for growth in southbound trading [1] Group 3: Future Developments - HKEX is exploring the possibility of zero-day options, although the complexity of execution means that a specific timeline is still unclear [1] - The exchange believes that extending trading hours requires comprehensive consideration from various perspectives [1]

Group 1 - UBS predicts that the contribution of southbound trading to the average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to double from approximately 16% in Q1 of last year to nearly 28% in the third quarter of this year [1] - The increase in participation from domestic investors, particularly retail investors, indicates further potential for southbound trading growth [1] - HKEX is exploring the possibility of zero-day options, but the complexity of execution means that a specific timeline remains unclear [1] Group 2 - HKEX is considering the extension of trading hours, which requires comprehensive consideration from various perspectives [1] - Based on market data for Q3 and updated institutional targets for the Hang Seng Index, UBS has raised its average daily trading volume forecasts for HKEX for 2025 to 2027 to HKD 230 billion, HKD 193 billion, and HKD 219 billion respectively [1] - Earnings per share estimates have been increased by 5%, 3%, and 2% for the same years, reaching HKD 12.5, HKD 10.9, and HKD 11.8 respectively [1] Group 3 - UBS has raised its target price for HKEX from HKD 430 to HKD 464 while maintaining a "neutral" rating [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup increased its stake in Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) by acquiring 225,000 shares at an average price of 417.24 HKD, totaling approximately 93.86 million HKD, raising its total holdings to 63.49 million shares, representing 5% of the company, making it the second-largest shareholder after the Hong Kong government [1] - The shareholder structure of HKEX is diverse and fragmented, with the Hong Kong government holding 5.9%, followed by JPMorgan at 3.53%. Various fund companies, including E Fund, GF Fund, and Huaxia Fund, are also among the top shareholders, with differing strategies regarding their holdings [1] - The Hong Kong stock market has seen increased trading activity this year, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding the total for the previous year, and IPO financing returning to the top globally. Investment banks like Goldman Sachs have raised their target prices for HKEX multiple times [1] Group 2 - HKEX's profitability model relies on the growth of trading volume and transaction value, with the average daily trading amount in the Hong Kong stock market reaching 240.2 billion HKD in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 118%, marking the highest level for the same period since 2010 [2] - The average daily trading amount for the Stock Connect program reached 110.96 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 195%, while derivatives trading showed strong performance with a year-on-year increase of 11% in average daily trading volume [2] - Potential catalysts for HKEX's profit improvement include the surge in A+H share listings driving the IPO market, Hong Kong's strengthened position as an international financial center, and factors such as declining real interest rates stimulating stock trading, the introduction of "zero-date options," and continued inflows from southbound funds [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised the earnings per share forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by approximately 4% based on better-than-expected average daily trading volume [1] - The target price for HKEX was increased by 11%, from HKD 450 to HKD 500, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times for 2026 [1] - Despite the upward revision of earnings estimates, HKEX's stock price remains about 20% lower than its peak in 2021, even as average daily trading volume in cash equities has reached a historical high of over HKD 200 billion [1] Group 2 - The number of IPO applications is nearing the peak levels of 2021, but the pace of new listings is still in the mid-cycle [2] - Key market activity indicators, such as turnover rate and the ratio of small to large-cap stock trading, are above the historical 90th percentile, yet the market's valuation relative to GDP is at historical average levels [1][2] - The average year-on-year growth in earnings per share for HKEX is projected to reach 42% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a 29% growth expected in Q2 2025, which is 3 to 4 times the normal growth rate [2]

Core Insights - The market risk appetite has improved following the Trump administration's delay in trade negotiations and active dialogues with major trade partners [1] - The popularity of "0DTE" options has surged, with trading volume reaching a historical high, indicating a growing trend among short-term investors [2][3] - The emergence of the "TACO trade" strategy reflects investor behavior in response to Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, leading to new trading patterns in the derivatives market [4][5] Group 1: 0DTE Options - In May, the trading volume of "0DTE" options linked to the S&P 500 surged to a record 61%, marking a significant milestone for this popular trading strategy [2] - The short-term nature of these options allows investors to engage with lower premiums while aiming for substantial returns, attracting many short-term traders [2] - The increase in "0DTE" options trading is largely driven by retail investors, with a notable 9 percentage point rise from April [2] Group 2: TACO Trade Strategy - The "TACO trade" strategy, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," capitalizes on the market's reaction to Trump's tariff announcements and subsequent retreats [4] - This strategy involves using collar options to hedge against significant losses while limiting potential profits, reflecting investor sentiment towards short-term volatility [4] - Market experts suggest that as the S&P 500 approaches 6000 points, similar trading patterns will re-emerge, driven by Trump's strong rhetoric and its impact on market volatility [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate within the range of 23,000 to 23,500, with recent trading showing a slight increase of 0.4% to close at 23,381 points [3] - The mainland industrial enterprises' profits increased by 1.4% year-on-year in the first four months, totaling 2.12 trillion yuan [6][7] - The overall revenue of industrial enterprises reached 43.44 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [6] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Meituan's first-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with the CEO emphasizing a commitment to winning competition, resulting in a stock price increase of 2.1% [3] - Link REIT reported a total distributable amount of 7.025 billion yuan for the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.57% [10] - Link REIT's Hong Kong property portfolio showed a revenue increase of 1.5% despite a weak retail market, while its mainland property revenue surged by 29.7% [11][12] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Predictions - UBS maintains a target of 24,500 points for the Hang Seng Index this year, citing positive factors such as increased northbound capital inflow and strong earnings momentum [8] - The report highlights that reduced interest expenses for businesses and households could lead to increased consumption and investment, benefiting high-yield stocks like utilities and banks [8]