点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 25年上半年收入/归母净利润分别同比+10.4%/-11.1% 华利集团发布2025年中报。公司2025年上半年实现营业收入126.6亿元，同比增长10.4%，归母净利润16.7 亿元，同比下滑11.1%，扣非归母净利润16.8亿元，同比下滑8.8%，EPS为1.43元，拟每股派发现金红利 1.0元（含税），分红率约70%。 2025年上半年公司归母净利率同比下降3.2PCT至13.2%。分季度来看，25Q1~Q2公司单季度收入分别同比 +12.3%/+9.0%，归母净利润分别同比-3.2%/-16.7%，归母净利率分别为14.2%/12.4%，分别同 比-2.3/-3.8PCT。 点评： 运动鞋销量/单价同比+6.1 ...

公司研究 新工厂爬坡致利润下滑，龙头持续拓客户、扩产能 ——华利集团（300979.SZ）2025 年中报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：53.99 元 2025 年 8 月 23 日 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.67 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 630.06 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 45.76/81.42 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 15.36% | 股价相对走势 -23% -10% 3% 15% 28% 08/24 11/24 02/25 05/25 华利集团 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3 ...

上半年业绩高增，海内外客户矩阵持续扩张 华阳集团（002906.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 公司点评 | 华阳集团 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。2025 年上半年公司实现营业收入 53.11 亿元，同比增长 26.65%；归母净利润 3.41 亿元，同比增长 18.98%；扣非 后归母净利润 3.23 亿元，同比增长 16.53%。其中，2025Q2 实现营业收入 28.22 亿元，同比增长 28.10%，归母净利润 1.86 亿元，同比增长 28.52%。 汽车电子与精密压铸双轮驱动，核心产品引领市场新增长。分产品来看，2025 年上半年汽车电子和精密压铸业务均实现大幅增长，其中汽车电子实现营业 收入 37.88 亿元，同比增长 23.37%；精密压铸实现营业收入 12.92 亿元， 同比增长 41.32%。2025 年上半年汽车电子业务部分细分产品领跑市场，公 司 HUD 产品市占率继续位列国内第一名；车载无线充电产品市占率继续位 列国内第一名，全球市场占有率提升至第二名。 海内外客户群持续扩容，打开公司长期成长天花板。2025 年上半年公司汽 车电子新开拓订单继续增长，获得 Stellan ...

所有类型的公司，不论规模大小，都希望自己的微信小程序能够受欢迎，然而缺乏客户和关注度是普遍存在的问题。我的朋友老张，在朝阳区经营一家提供 企业培训的业务，去年推出的微信小程序经过半年的宣传，每日实际浏览量仅有几十人，更不用说产生交易了。他尝试了通过社群发布信息、在朋友圈分享 推广，但收效甚微，还因此被很多人拉入黑名单，那段时间他焦虑得头发都变白了。 微信小程序推广引流怎么做？ 老张谈到，他在夜间浏览专业网站时，发现有人谈论借助人工智能技术来拓展客户，并且提到了"海量数据获取客户"。他起初认为这只是一个宣传口号，因 为他之前购买过好几种"客户获取软件"，结果都不理想，要么资料过时，要么完全无法有效接触目标人群。不过，他决定冒险一试，联系了蜂尾智能AI客户 开发系统的销售，抱着碰碰运气的态度使用了两个星期。 这种办法能够准确找到目标人群，使信息顺利送到他们那里。比如老张的实验证明，系统通过分析，在恰当的时机把促销内容发给负责人，让交流变得特别 高效。以前随便发消息不仅耗费时间和力气，效果通常也不理想。如今借助平台的有力推荐，可以迅速收到效果引流推广，比如那三家公司当场约定体验服 务拓客促销，就是有效对接带来的直接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 earnings, showing a strong year-on-year revenue growth of 28.28%, although there was a quarter-on-quarter decline of 23.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company also increased by 32.68% year-on-year, despite a 25.28% decline quarter-on-quarter, indicating overall performance in line with expectations [2][3]. Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.095 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.28% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23.16%. The performance of major downstream customers included Chery Automobile with 600,100 units (down 27.42% QoQ), FAW-Volkswagen with 380,800 units (down 18.74% QoQ), and others, indicating that the company's revenue closely matched the sales changes of its key customers [3]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 18.83%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to accounting policy adjustments. Adjusting for these changes, the gross margin actually improved by 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cost and Profitability - The company’s expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 8.74%, down 1.50 percentage points year-on-year. The breakdown of expenses showed sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 0.37%, 2.25%, 6.01%, and 0.11%, respectively, with variations in each category [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 322 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.68% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.28%, resulting in a net profit margin of 10.41%, which is an increase of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on "product upgrades and customer expansion" as dual drivers for long-term growth. The LED headlights are being upgraded to ADB and DLP, enhancing the per-vehicle value. The ADB headlights have already been integrated with customers, and DLP headlights have secured projects, indicating a positive outlook for product upgrades [4]. - The company is also expanding its customer base beyond existing clients like FAW-Volkswagen and Chery, targeting luxury brands and new energy vehicle manufacturers, which are expected to contribute significantly to future growth [4]. Global Expansion - The company is gradually releasing capacity at its Serbia factory and has established subsidiaries in Mexico and the United States, indicating a commitment to global expansion and market diversification [5]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.761 billion yuan, 2.189 billion yuan, and 2.683 billion yuan, respectively. Corresponding EPS estimates are 6.16 yuan, 7.66 yuan, and 9.39 yuan, with P/E ratios of 21.52x, 17.31x, and 14.12x for the same periods, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 3.095 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.28% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 23.16% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 322 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 32.68% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.28% [7] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory driven by product upgrades and customer expansion, particularly in the LED headlight segment [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 10.248 billion yuan - 2024A: 13.253 billion yuan (growth of 29.32%) - 2025E: 16.305 billion yuan (growth of 23.03%) - 2026E: 19.715 billion yuan (growth of 20.91%) - 2027E: 23.530 billion yuan (growth of 19.35%) [1][8] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023A: 1.102 billion yuan - 2024A: 1.408 billion yuan (growth of 27.78%) - 2025E: 1.761 billion yuan (growth of 25.02%) - 2026E: 2.189 billion yuan (growth of 24.31%) - 2027E: 2.683 billion yuan (growth of 22.60%) [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS forecasts are: - 2023A: 3.86 yuan - 2024A: 4.93 yuan - 2025E: 6.16 yuan - 2026E: 7.66 yuan - 2027E: 9.39 yuan [1][8] - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025-2027 are 21.52, 17.31, and 14.12 respectively [1][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth driven by strategic customer expansion and new factory operations, despite a slight decline in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 5.4 billion, representing a 12% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 760 million, down 3% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 750 million, also a 3% decrease compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Customer and Market Strategy - The company has diversified its customer base, with most clients being publicly listed companies, which has contributed to stable revenue growth [2]. - New customer orders have significantly increased year-on-year, indicating strong demand and competitive positioning within the supply chain [2]. Group 3: Production and Operational Efficiency - The company is accelerating the construction and production pace of new factories, having launched two finished shoe factories in Q1 2025, following the establishment of four factories in 2024 [1]. - The initial phase of new factory operations is experiencing a learning curve due to employee training, impacting overall gross margin; however, the company plans to enhance operational efficiency through optimized training and smart production systems [1]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - The company is adjusting its production strategy in response to changing tariff policies, with manufacturing primarily in Vietnam and plans to increase capacity in Indonesia [3]. - The company’s product sales are directed by customer instructions, and any changes in tariff policies will influence supply chain decisions and production layout [3]. Group 5: Earnings Forecast - Based on Q1 2025 performance, the company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 4 billion, 4.7 billion, and 5.5 billion for 2025-2027, respectively [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 3.41, 3.99, and 4.68, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 17, and 14 times [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 12.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 760 million yuan, down 3.3% year-over-year, primarily due to the ramp-up of new factory capacity. The company is expected to benefit from capacity improvements in the future, with new customer acquisition and increased market share from existing clients continuing to strengthen its competitive advantage, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a sales volume of 49 million pairs of sports shoes, up 8.24% year-over-year, with an average price of 109 yuan per pair, an increase of 3.8% year-over-year. The volume growth is attributed to strategic customer expansion with brands like Adidas, New Balance, and On, which is expected to contribute to further growth in Q2 2025 [2]. - The company's net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points year-over-year to 14.2%, and the gross profit margin fell by 5.5 percentage points to 22.9%, mainly due to the initial efficiency ramp-up of the new factory. The workforce increased to 184,000 employees, a rise of 17.0% year-over-year [2]. - The company reported inventory of 3.67 billion yuan, up 12.5% year-over-year, and accounts receivable of 3.31 billion yuan, up 15.3% year-over-year, primarily due to inventory buildup related to factory capacity ramp-up and increased sales collections, resulting in a net cash inflow from operating activities of 1.21 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-over-year [2]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - To meet capacity demands, the company acquired 100% stakes in three Vietnamese footwear companies for 23.038 million yuan, 28.250 million yuan, and 16.113 million yuan, respectively, aimed at optimizing production resources for shoe uppers. These companies will be included in the company's consolidated financial statements starting from Q1 2025, and are expected to enhance production capacity synergy within 1-2 years, thereby increasing the company's market share in global footwear manufacturing [3]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027 at 4.32 billion yuan, 4.95 billion yuan, and 5.61 billion yuan, respectively. Based on the average PE ratio of comparable companies at 12.7 times for 2025, and considering the potential for continued customer base expansion and solid industry leadership, a target PE of 21.8 times is assigned for 2025, resulting in a target price of 80.82 yuan, with a "buy" rating maintained [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 80.82 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million RMB, down 3.3% year-over-year. The short-term pressure on profitability is attributed to the ramp-up of new factory capacity. However, the company is expected to benefit from capacity improvements and the expansion of new customers, maintaining its competitive advantage [1][5]. - The company has strategically expanded its customer base, including partnerships with Adidas, New Balance, and On, which have significantly contributed to revenue growth. The company anticipates further impressive growth as the peak season approaches in Q2 2025 [2][5]. - The company's net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points year-over-year to 14.2%, and the gross profit margin fell by 5.5 percentage points to 22.9%, primarily due to the initial efficiency ramp-up of new factories. The workforce increased to 184,000, a 17% year-over-year rise. The company’s inventory was 3.67 billion RMB, up 12.5% year-over-year, and accounts receivable reached 3.31 billion RMB, up 15.3% year-over-year, indicating a focus on stocking for production expansion [3][5]. - The company acquired three Vietnamese shoe companies for a total of approximately 67.4 million RMB to optimize production resources, which are expected to enhance production capacity synergy within 1-2 years, thereby increasing the company's market share in global footwear manufacturing [4][5]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 4.32 billion RMB, 4.95 billion RMB, and 5.61 billion RMB, respectively. The company is assigned a PE ratio of 21.8 for 2025, based on a comparable company average PE of 12.7, reflecting its strong customer base and industry leadership [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.35 billion RMB, a 12.3% increase year-over-year, while net profit was 760 million RMB, a decrease of 3.3% year-over-year [1]. - The company’s net profit margin decreased to 14.2%, and gross profit margin fell to 22.9% due to new factory ramp-up [3]. Customer Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, notably with Adidas, New Balance, and On, contributing to an 8.24% increase in sneaker sales volume to 49 million pairs in Q1 2025 [2]. Capacity and Acquisitions - The company acquired three Vietnamese shoe companies to enhance production capacity, expected to yield benefits within 1-2 years [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 4.32 billion RMB, 4.95 billion RMB, and 5.61 billion RMB, with a target PE ratio of 21.8 for 2025 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a net profit growth of 44.23 billion, 50.74 billion, and 57.92 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 respectively [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.353 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million RMB, a decrease of 3.25% [2] - The company is experiencing stable orders with short-term profit margins affected by the ramp-up of new factories, but overall performance is in line with expectations [2] - The company has successfully launched new factories in Vietnam, Indonesia, and China to meet the growing demand, with two new shoe factories already operational in Q1 2025 [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.90%, down 5.47 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the efficiency ramp-up of new factories [3] - The company is expected to gradually restore its profitability as new factories improve operational efficiency through optimized training mechanisms and the deployment of smart production equipment [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.353 billion RMB, reflecting a 12.34% year-on-year growth, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million RMB, down 3.25% [2] Operational Analysis - The company sold 49 million pairs of sports shoes in Q1 2025, marking an 8.24% year-on-year increase, with a slight growth in average selling price (ASP) [3] - The company’s gross margin was impacted by new factory ramp-ups, but the net profit margin was 14.26%, down 2.30 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market and Client Dynamics - The company is less affected by tariffs due to its Southeast Asian factories using a processing model and local sourcing of over 50% of raw materials in Vietnam [4] - The company is expected to benefit from new client orders, particularly from Adidas, as it continues to expand its customer base despite slower growth from major clients like Nike [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 44.23 billion, 50.74 billion, and 57.92 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 [5]