证券研究报告·公司点评报告·汽车零部件 星宇股份（601799） 2025 年一季报点评：2025Q1 业绩符合预期， 车灯龙头持续成长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,248 | 13,253 | 16,305 | 19,715 | 23,530 | | 同比（%） | 24.25 | 29.32 | 23.03 | 20.91 | 19.35 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,102 | 1,408 | 1,761 | 2,189 | 2,683 | | 同比（%） | 17.07 | 27.78 | 25.02 | 24.31 | 22.60 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.86 | 4.93 | 6.16 | 7.66 | 9.39 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 34.37 | 26.90 | 21.52 | 17.31 | 14.12 | [Table_Ta ...

根据关税及时调整策略 公司的量产工厂主要在越南，未来印尼的产能也会逐步增加，公司产品销售是按照客户的指令从越南、 印尼出口到全球市场，包括美国、欧盟、中国及亚太地区等。在运动鞋制造行业中，运动鞋进口关税由 客户承担，关税政策的变化，会影响客户决策供应链产能区域的分布，制造商会根据客户的要求调整产 能的布局。 公司发布一季报 25Q1 营收54 亿，同增12%，归母7.6 亿，同减3%，扣非后归母7.5 亿，同减3%。 公司通过战略性拓展新客户及深化新兴运动品牌客户合作，2025Q1 新客户订单量同比显著增长。为匹 配快速增长产能需求，公司加速了新工厂的建设和投产节奏（继2024 年上半年和下半年各投产2 家成品 鞋工厂之后，2025 年第一季度2 家成品鞋工厂已经投产）。 鉴于新工厂投产初期存在新员工技能培训周期（2025 年3 月末员工人数约18.4 万人，较2024 年3 月末增 加约17%，其中最近半年集团员工人数增加约1.4 万人），新工厂仍处于效率爬坡阶段，对公司整体毛 利率造成一定影响。公司将通过优化培训机制、加快推进智能化生产设备和生产管理系统部署等措施助 力新工厂的运营效率提升。 新增客户以及 ...

华利集团公布1Q25 业绩：营业收入53.5 亿元（yoy+12.3%）；归母净利润为7.6 亿元（yoy-3.3%），盈 利能力短期承压主因新工厂产能爬坡影响，我们预计公司后续将受益于产能提升推动业绩释放，其中新 客户的拓展与老客户的份额提升将持续巩固竞争优势，维持"买入"评级。 产品延续量价齐升，导入新客户持续贡献增量 从量价角度来看，1Q25 运动鞋销量0.49 亿双（yoy+8.24%），人民币单价109 元（yoy+3.8%）；我们 认为量表现优于价主因公司战略性拓展新客户阿迪达斯、NewBalance 与On 等持续贡献增量，预计随着 2Q25 旺季到来业绩将实现进一步亮眼增长。 工厂产能爬坡短期拖累盈利能力，1Q25 经营效率稳步改善1Q25 公司净利率同比-2.3pct 至14.2%，毛利 率同比-5.5pct 至22.9%，主要原因为新工厂投产初期效率爬坡，员工人数增至18.4 万人 （yoy+17.0%）。 费用方面，报告期内公司期间费用率同比-2.0pct 至5.4%，其中销售/管理/研发费用率分别同 比-0.1/-1.5/+0.2pct 至0.4%/3.7%/1.8%，管理费用率同比下 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 80.82 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million RMB, down 3.3% year-over-year. The short-term pressure on profitability is attributed to the ramp-up of new factory capacity. However, the company is expected to benefit from capacity improvements and the expansion of new customers, maintaining its competitive advantage [1][5]. - The company has strategically expanded its customer base, including partnerships with Adidas, New Balance, and On, which have significantly contributed to revenue growth. The company anticipates further impressive growth as the peak season approaches in Q2 2025 [2][5]. - The company's net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points year-over-year to 14.2%, and the gross profit margin fell by 5.5 percentage points to 22.9%, primarily due to the initial efficiency ramp-up of new factories. The workforce increased to 184,000, a 17% year-over-year rise. The company’s inventory was 3.67 billion RMB, up 12.5% year-over-year, and accounts receivable reached 3.31 billion RMB, up 15.3% year-over-year, indicating a focus on stocking for production expansion [3][5]. - The company acquired three Vietnamese shoe companies for a total of approximately 67.4 million RMB to optimize production resources, which are expected to enhance production capacity synergy within 1-2 years, thereby increasing the company's market share in global footwear manufacturing [4][5]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 4.32 billion RMB, 4.95 billion RMB, and 5.61 billion RMB, respectively. The company is assigned a PE ratio of 21.8 for 2025, based on a comparable company average PE of 12.7, reflecting its strong customer base and industry leadership [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.35 billion RMB, a 12.3% increase year-over-year, while net profit was 760 million RMB, a decrease of 3.3% year-over-year [1]. - The company’s net profit margin decreased to 14.2%, and gross profit margin fell to 22.9% due to new factory ramp-up [3]. Customer Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, notably with Adidas, New Balance, and On, contributing to an 8.24% increase in sneaker sales volume to 49 million pairs in Q1 2025 [2]. Capacity and Acquisitions - The company acquired three Vietnamese shoe companies to enhance production capacity, expected to yield benefits within 1-2 years [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 4.32 billion RMB, 4.95 billion RMB, and 5.61 billion RMB, with a target PE ratio of 21.8 for 2025 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced significant new customer growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.2% to 760 million yuan due to the initial efficiency challenges of new factories [7][8] - The report anticipates improved gross margins in Q2 2025 as scale effects and new factory ramp-up contribute positively. Long-term prospects remain optimistic due to the expansion of new customer orders and increased market share from existing clients [7][8] Financial Summary - Q1 2025 revenue: 5.35 billion yuan (YoY +12.3%) - Q1 2025 net profit: 760 million yuan (YoY -3.2%) - Q1 2025 gross margin: 22.9% (down 5.5 percentage points) - Q1 2025 net profit margin: 14.2% (down 2.3 percentage points) [7][8] - Expected net profit for 2025-2027: 4.1 billion, 4.76 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan respectively [7] Operational Insights - Q1 2025 sales volume: 49 million pairs (YoY +8.24%), with an average price of 109 yuan per pair (YoY +3.8%) [7] - The company is accelerating the construction of new factories to meet the rising demand from new clients such as Adidas and New Balance, with plans to open two new factories in Indonesia and Sichuan in Q1 2025 [7] - As of Q1 2025, the company employed 184,000 people, a 17% increase YoY, with expectations of a slowdown in hiring in Q2 2025 [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027: 27.66 billion, 31.68 billion, and 36.18 billion yuan respectively [9] - Expected net profit margins for 2025-2027: 14.8%, 15.0%, and 15.2% respectively [9] - P/E ratios for 2025-2027: 16.1, 13.8, and 12.0 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a net profit growth of 44.23 billion, 50.74 billion, and 57.92 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 respectively [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.353 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million RMB, a decrease of 3.25% [2] - The company is experiencing stable orders with short-term profit margins affected by the ramp-up of new factories, but overall performance is in line with expectations [2] - The company has successfully launched new factories in Vietnam, Indonesia, and China to meet the growing demand, with two new shoe factories already operational in Q1 2025 [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.90%, down 5.47 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the efficiency ramp-up of new factories [3] - The company is expected to gradually restore its profitability as new factories improve operational efficiency through optimized training mechanisms and the deployment of smart production equipment [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.353 billion RMB, reflecting a 12.34% year-on-year growth, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million RMB, down 3.25% [2] Operational Analysis - The company sold 49 million pairs of sports shoes in Q1 2025, marking an 8.24% year-on-year increase, with a slight growth in average selling price (ASP) [3] - The company’s gross margin was impacted by new factory ramp-ups, but the net profit margin was 14.26%, down 2.30 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market and Client Dynamics - The company is less affected by tariffs due to its Southeast Asian factories using a processing model and local sourcing of over 50% of raw materials in Vietnam [4] - The company is expected to benefit from new client orders, particularly from Adidas, as it continues to expand its customer base despite slower growth from major clients like Nike [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 44.23 billion, 50.74 billion, and 57.92 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion yuan and a net profit of 760 million yuan for Q1 2025, indicating a year-on-year revenue growth of 12% but a decline in net profit by 3% [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.35 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year; net profit was 760 million yuan, down 3% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 750 million yuan, also down 3% year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 gross margin decreased by 5.5 percentage points to 22.9% due to the ramp-up of new factories, with expectations for improvement in Q2 2025 [1][3] - The company’s net profit margin fell by 2.3 percentage points to 14.3% in Q1 2025 [1] Sales and Orders - Q1 2025 saw a significant increase in new customer orders, with stable orders from existing clients [2] - The company maintained deep cooperation with major brands like Nike and Adidas, with expectations for a 15%+ revenue growth in 2025 driven by new customer orders [2][4] Capacity Expansion - The company plans to accelerate capacity expansion, with a total capacity of 229 million pairs and a utilization rate of 97% in 2024 [2] - Four new factories were launched in 2024, with two more in Q1 2025, indicating a potential CAGR of 15% in production from 2025 to 2026 [3] Operational Efficiency - The company has maintained high production management efficiency, with a gross margin of 26.8% in 2024, although recent factory openings have temporarily affected margins [3] - Cash flow management appears stable, with inventory increasing by 12.5% year-on-year to 3.67 billion yuan and accounts receivable turnover days increasing by 2 days to 64.7 days [3] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to continue expanding rapidly in 2025, with net profit projected to grow in the mid-single digits due to ongoing efficiency improvements in new factories [4] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.11 billion, 4.76 billion, and 5.49 billion yuan, respectively, with a PE ratio of 16 times for 2025 [4]