市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 19 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四 A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.16%，深成指收 跌 1.29%，创业板指收跌 2.17%。沪深两市成交额 16552.74 亿元。申 万行业方面，银行、煤炭、石油石化领涨，电力设备、通信、电子领 跌；概念板块方面，DRG/DIP、家庭医生、太赫兹概念涨幅居前，海 南自贸区、同花顺果指数、赛马概念跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生指数 收涨 0.12%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.73%；海外方面，美国三大指数集 体收涨，道指收涨 0.14%，标普 500 收涨 0.79%，纳指收涨 1.38%。 【重要新闻】 【中国对外开放迎来具有里程碑意义的标志性举措】海南自由贸易港 全岛封关运作 12 月 18 日正式启动，"零关税"商品范围扩大到 6600 多个税目。对消费者而言，首先，到海南出差、旅游、生活如常，不 需要任何额外证件。其次，对于文旅消费"买买买"，将有更好的体验。 有媒体实探三亚海旅免税城发现 ...

写在文章前的声明：在本文之前的说明：本文中所列的投资信息，只是一个对基金资产净值进行排行的客观描述，并无主观倾向性，也不是投资建议，纯属 娱乐性质。 一顿操作猛如虎，基金净值已更新，谁是基金中的王者，谁又垫底，请看数据： 领涨行业：煤炭涨幅逾2%； 领涨概念：DRG-DIP、家庭医生涨幅逾3%。 | 基金简称 PK | | | 最新净体育 2017年4月1日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 长城消费增... C | 1.1103 | 3.95% | ਮੈ | | | 019414 | 2025-12-18 | | | | 2 | 长城消费增... A | 1.1254 | 3.94% | 7 | | | 200006 | 2025-12-18 | | | | 3 | 摩根中国世...l) | 1.9290 | 3.88% | 8 | | | 003243 | 2025-12-17 | | | | 4 | 汇添富中证... A | 0.9637 | 3.76% | | | | 501007 | 2025-12-18 | | | | 5 | 汇添富中证 ... ...

据证券时报•数据宝统计，今日机构研报共发布9条买入型评级记录。 其中航天智造、恒逸石化、创业环保、渤海租赁机构发布的预测目标价分别为26元/股、11.96元/股、7.27元/股、4.36元/股，距离最新收盘价上涨 空间分别为15.20%、51.78%、19.97%、7.39%。 市场表现方面，机构买入型评级个股今日平均上涨1.48%，表现强于沪指。股价上涨的有7只，涨幅居前的有渤海租赁、航天智造、恒逸石化等， 今日涨幅分别为4.64%、2.82%、2.2%。 龙虎榜揭秘：机构大幅净卖出2股 （原标题：603288、688259发布分红预案！机构大幅净卖出2股） A股三大指数今日（12月18日）走势分化，市场全天成交额16768.01亿元，较前一交易日缩量超1500亿元；收盘上涨个股超2800只，其中收盘股价 涨停的有73只。 盘面上，家庭医生、太赫兹、高压氧舱等概念领涨；海南自贸区、赛马等概念跌幅居前。 9股今日获机构买入评级 创耀科技(688259)12月18日发布2025年前三季度利润分配预案，拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利2元（含税），合计拟派发2219万元（含税）， 占2025年前三季度公司实现合并 ...

截至12月18日收盘，成飞概念上涨1.59%，位居概念板块涨幅第8，板块内，28股上涨，北摩高科涨 停，广联航空、中航重机、华如科技等涨幅居前，分别上涨8.50%、6.68%、6.09%。跌幅居前的有申菱 环境、航天晨光、国缆检测等，分别下跌3.96%、3.48%、2.31%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DRG/DIP | 3.87 | 海南自贸区 | -3.37 | | 家庭医生 | 3.86 | 同花顺果指数 | -2.14 | | 太赫兹 | 2.98 | 赛马概念 | -1.60 | | 高压氧舱 | 2.20 | 自由贸易港 | -1.35 | | 无人零售 | 1.80 | 华为手机 | -1.30 | | 医药电商 | 1.74 | 钠离子电池 | -1.12 | | 啤酒概念 | 1.63 | 盐湖提锂 | -1.06 | | 成飞概念 | 1.59 | AI PC | -1.06 | | 国产航母 | 1.59 | 中国AI 50 | -1.04 | | IP经济 | ...

截至12月18日收盘，家庭医生概念上涨3.86%，位居概念板块涨幅第2，板块内，22股上涨，漱玉平民 20%涨停，美年健康涨停，海峡创新、卫宁健康、思创医惠等涨幅居前，分别上涨16.39%、11.11%、 5.77%。跌幅居前的有焦点科技、科大讯飞、中元股份等，分别下跌1.49%、1.36%、0.95%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DRG/DIP | 3.87 | 海南自贸区 | -3.37 | | 家庭医生 | 3.86 | 同花顺果指数 | -2.14 | | 太赫兹 | 2.98 | 赛马概念 | -1.60 | | 高压氧舱 | 2.20 | 自由贸易港 | -1.35 | | 无人零售 | 1.80 | 华为手机 | -1.30 | | 医药电商 | 1.74 | 钠离子电池 | -1.12 | | 啤酒概念 | 1.63 | 盐湖提锂 | -1.06 | | 成飞概念 | 1.59 | AI PC | -1.06 | | 国产航母 | 1.59 | 中国AI 50 | -1. ...

资金流入比率方面，国际医学、创新医疗、金陵药业等流入比率居前，主力资金净流入率分别为 9.48%、5.21%、3.12%。（数据宝） 高压氧舱概念资金流入榜 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DRG/DIP | 3.87 | 海南自贸区 | -3.37 | | 家庭医生 | 3.86 | 同花顺果指数 | -2.14 | | 太赫兹 | 2.98 | 赛马概念 | -1.60 | | 高压氧舱 | 2.20 | 自由贸易港 | -1.35 | | 无人零售 | 1.80 | 华为手机 | -1.30 | | 医药电商 | 1.74 | 钠离子电池 | -1.12 | | 啤酒概念 | 1.63 | 盐湖提锂 | -1.06 | | 成飞概念 | 1.59 | AI PC | -1.06 | | 国产航母 | 1.59 | 中国AI 50 | -1.04 | | IP经济(谷子经济) | 1.54 | 可控核聚变 | -1.03 | 资金面上看，今日高压氧舱概念板块获主力资金净流入0.29亿元，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The horse racing concept sector has experienced a decline of 2.93%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with notable stocks such as *ST Zhengping hitting the daily limit down, and Xinhua Du, Hainan Rubber, and Zhujiang Piano also showing significant declines [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The horse racing concept sector saw a net outflow of 163 million yuan from main funds today, with six stocks experiencing net outflows [2] - The top stock with net outflow is Xinhua Du, which had a net outflow of 105 million yuan, followed by Hainan Rubber, Zhongti Industry, and Zhongmu Shares with net outflows of 30.51 million yuan, 17.94 million yuan, and 3.37 million yuan respectively [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Xinhua Du's stock price decreased by 4.85% with a turnover rate of 16.72% and a main fund outflow of 104.65 million yuan [2] - Hainan Rubber's stock price fell by 2.76% with a turnover rate of 1.85% and a main fund outflow of 30.51 million yuan [2] - Zhongti Industry's stock price decreased by 1.37% with a turnover rate of 2.39% and a main fund outflow of 17.94 million yuan [2] - Zhongmu Shares' stock price declined by 1.39% with a turnover rate of 2.37% and a main fund outflow of 3.37 million yuan [2] - Zhujiang Piano's stock price fell by 2.27% with a turnover rate of 1.04% and a main fund outflow of 3.32 million yuan [2] - *ST Zhengping's stock price decreased by 4.96% with a turnover rate of 0.13% and a main fund outflow of 3.00 million yuan [2]

Group 1: Strong Stocks - As of November 4, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.41% to 3960.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.71% to 13175.22 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.96% to 3134.09 points [1] - A total of 67 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit up, with the top three strong stocks being Pingtan Development (000592), Haixia Innovation (300300), and Haima Automobile (000572) [1] - The detailed data for the top 10 strong stocks includes: - Pingtan Development: 13 days with 10 limit ups, turnover rate of 19.55% [1] - Haixia Innovation: 7 days with 4 limit ups, turnover rate of 44.42% [1] - Haima Automobile: 3 consecutive limit ups, turnover rate of 12.11% [1] Group 2: Strong Concept Sectors - The top three concept sectors based on A-share performance are: Cross-Strait Relations, Fujian Free Trade Zone, and Ice and Snow Industry [2] - The detailed performance of the top 10 concept sectors includes: - Cross-Strait Relations: increased by 2.09% [3] - Fujian Free Trade Zone: increased by 1.74% [3] - Ice and Snow Industry: increased by 1.35% [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: DecompGRU **Model Construction Idea**: The model improves information interaction between time-series and cross-sectional data by introducing two simple de-mean modules on the GRU baseline model[18] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The DecompGRU model architecture is based on GRU as the baseline 2. Two de-mean modules are added to enhance the interaction between time-series and cross-sectional data 3. The model is trained using IC and weighted MSE loss functions[18] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates improved interaction between time-series and cross-sectional data, enhancing prediction accuracy[18] Model Backtesting Results - **DecompGRU TOP200 Portfolio**: - Cumulative absolute return: 41.11% - Excess return relative to WIND All A equal-weight index: 13.98% - Maximum drawdown: 10.08% - Weekly win rate: 64.52% - Monthly win rate: 100% - October absolute return: 1.78%, excess return: -0.07%[11] - **ETF Rotation Portfolio**: - Cumulative absolute return: 19.06% - Excess return relative to benchmark: -2.00% - Maximum drawdown: 7.82% - Weekly win rate: 62.50% - Monthly win rate: 57.14% - October absolute return: -2.04%, excess return: -1.18%[14][15] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Sentiment Heat Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aggregates stock-level sentiment heat metrics (e.g., browsing, self-selection, and clicks) to represent broader market sentiment[19] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Individual stock sentiment heat is calculated as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts 2. The sentiment heat is normalized by dividing by the total market sentiment on the same day and multiplying by 10,000 3. Aggregated sentiment heat is used as a proxy for market sentiment at the index, industry, and concept levels[19] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment and its impact on pricing errors[19] Factor Backtesting Results - **Broad-based Index Sentiment Heat Rotation Strategy**: - Annualized return since 2017: 8.74% - Maximum drawdown: 23.5% - 2025 portfolio return: 38.5% - Benchmark return: 32.9%[28] - **Concept Sentiment Heat BOTTOM Portfolio**: - Annualized return: 15.71% - Maximum drawdown: 28.89% - 2025 portfolio return: 42.1%[41][44]

Core Insights - The article provides a ranking of open-end funds based on their net asset value growth as of October 31, 2025, highlighting the top and bottom performers in the market [2][4][6]. Fund Performance Summary - The top 10 funds with the highest net value growth include: 1. 中航优选领航混合发起C with a unit net value of 1.8264, up from 1.6624, showing an increase of 0.16 2. 中航优选领航混合发起A with a unit net value of 1.8359, up from 1.6711, also increasing by 0.16 3. 申万菱信医药先锋股票A with a unit net value of 0.5106, up from 0.4719, an increase of 0.03 4. 申万菱信医药先锋股票C with a unit net value of 0.5019, up from 0.4639, an increase of 0.03 5. 东方阿尔法健康产业混合发起C with a unit net value of 1.0013, up from 0.9259, an increase of 0.07 6. 东方阿尔法健康产业混合发起A with a unit net value of 1.0030, up from 0.9275, an increase of 0.07 7. 同泰大健康主题混合C with a unit net value of 0.5288, up from 0.4902, an increase of 0.03 8. 同泰大健康主题混合A with a unit net value of 0.5385, up from 0.4992, an increase of 0.03 9. 广发医药创新混合发起式C with a unit net value of 1.3928, up from 1.2939, an increase of 0.09 10. 广发医药创新混合发起式A with a unit net value of 1.4113, up from 1.3111, an increase of 0.10 [2][4]. - The bottom 10 funds with the lowest net value growth include: 1. 永赢高端制造A with a unit net value of 1.7642, down from 1.8874, a decrease of 0.12 2. 水赢高端制造C with a unit net value of 1.7430, down from 1.8647, a decrease of 0.12 3. 山证资管策略精选混合 with a unit net value of 1.6421, down from 1.7552, a decrease of 0.11 4. 德邦露星价值A with a unit net value of 3.3857, down from 3.6114, a decrease of 0.22 5. 德邦鑫星价值C with a unit net value of 3.2544, down from 3.4713, a decrease of 0.21 6. 宏利绩优混合A with a unit net value of 2.3849, down from 2.5435, a decrease of 0.15 7. 宏利绩优混合C with a unit net value of 2.3532, down from 2.5096, a decrease of 0.15 8. 信澳业绩驱动混合C with a unit net value of 1.5438, down from 1.6463, a decrease of 0.10 9. 长安鑫瑞科技6个月定开混合C with a unit net value of 0.9629, down from 1.0268, a decrease of 0.06 10. 信澳业绩驱动混合A with a unit net value of 1.5739, down from 1.6783, a decrease of 0.10 [4][6]. Market Analysis - The overall market showed a decline with the Shanghai Composite Index closing lower, while the ChiNext Index experienced a brief recovery before falling again. The total trading volume reached 2.35 trillion, with a market breadth of 3760 gainers to 1553 losers [6]. - Leading sectors included Media & Entertainment, Pharmaceuticals, Internet, and Hospitality, all showing gains of over 2%, while sectors like Communication Equipment and Semiconductors faced declines exceeding 3% [6].