1月26日，黄金市场上演了一场"冲高回落"的震荡大戏。在避险情绪的短暂推动下，金价早盘高开高走 并刷新历史纪录，但随后伴随美盘时段的获利了结浪潮，价格大幅回落，最终日线以极具警示意义的射 击之星形态收尾。这一形态的出现，为今日黄金市场的走势奠定了"短期回调"的主基调，也给投资者带 来了明确的交易指引。回顾昨日市场走势，多空博弈的激烈程度可见一斑。早盘时段，受全球地缘局势 不确定性引发的避险买盘支撑，黄金价格直接高开于5006点位。开盘后行情并未盲目冲高，而是经历了 短暂的理性回踩，最低下探至4998.6点位，在确认支撑有效后，多头力量开始集中爆发，推动金价进入 强势拉升阶段。盘中涨幅持续扩大，日线最高触及5111.8点位，创下历史新高，展现出近期黄金市场的 强劲上涨动能。 然而，历史新高的出现也引发了市场的获利了结热潮。欧盘尾盘至美盘时段，前期积累的大量短期获利 盘开始集中离场，叠加部分机构资金的阶段性调仓，黄金价格从高位快速回落。日线最低下探至4988.8 点位，随后在低位展开窄幅整理。截至收盘，黄金价格定格在5011.5点位，较日内高点回落近100个 点，日线最终收出一根上影线极长的射击之星K线形态。 从 ...

高盛首席美国经济学家戴维梅里克尔(David Mericle)在投资者报告中表示，预计美联储今年将实施两次 降息，首次降息落地6月。 梅里克尔称，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将在此次会议上强调，此前的降息举措将助力稳定劳动力市 场，目前美联储已具备充分条件评估降息的实际效果。 今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于109.23一线上方，今日开盘于103.93美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报110.97美元/盎司，上涨6.80%，最高触及111.12美元/盎司，最低下探103.34美元/盎司， 目前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 高盛集团预计，美联储将在本周的议息会议上维持利率不变。该行指出，沃勒和鲍曼两位理事可能支持 这一决定，而特朗普去年刚任命的理事米兰将成为唯一持反对意见者。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 如果白银价格突破120美元/盎司，则将为挑战130美元水平打开大门。若银价进一步上涨，下一个目标 将是150美元。 另外投资者将关注周二公布的美国ADP就业变化数据以及消费者信心指数，以评估美国经济韧性及货币 政策前景。市场焦点则将进一步集中于周三的美联储利率决议。 若射击之星形态触 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show resilience amid weak employment data and rising demand for safe-haven assets, reflecting deeper considerations regarding interest rate cycles, asset allocation, and long-term inflation expectations [1][3] Employment Data - The latest ADP employment report indicates a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, contrary to market expectations of a gain of 50,000. This marks the first consecutive month of job losses since 2020 and the largest decline since March 2023 [1] - Weakness in the labor market diminishes confidence in economic recovery and strengthens expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a rate-cutting path [1] Precious Metals Performance - In a "dollar-neutral" environment, the focus shifts to fundamental and sentiment-driven factors, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,922.70 before closing at $3,892.60 [2] - The upward trend has formed a "shooting star" pattern, suggesting a potential short-term market adjustment, but not necessarily a complete trend reversal [2] Investment Strategies - Institutional investors are advised to consider both macroeconomic policies and technical signals when investing in precious metals, utilizing a combination of ETFs and futures to capture price increases while hedging against short-term volatility [3] - The core variables for the precious metals market remain interest rate trends and risk aversion, with a solid long-term upward logic for prices if weak employment data and loose monetary policy persist [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is showing early signs of a trend reversal, with a significant bearish signal indicated by the formation of a shooting star pattern after reaching a historical high of $3500 [1][3]. Technical Analysis - This week, gold closed down nearly 1% at $3316.26, with the weekly low at $3260 being a critical level to watch for potential further declines [1]. - The shooting star pattern suggests a possible price correction or downturn, especially if the $3260 support level is breached [3]. - Short-term analysis indicates that gold prices may continue to decline, with resistance levels identified at $3330-$3346 and a potential target of $3221 if the $3260 support is broken [5]. Market Influences - Upcoming economic reports, including the ADP employment report and core PCE inflation data, are expected to impact market sentiment. The core PCE index is projected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth slowing to 2.5% from 2.8% [1]. - The non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show a slowdown in job growth from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2% [1]. Domestic Gold Products Analysis - Domestic gold products are priced per gram and are correlated with the international gold price, adjusted for real-time exchange rates [7]. - Investors holding positions at high levels are advised to either hold for recovery or exit to minimize losses, depending on their risk tolerance [7].