Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show resilience amid weak employment data and rising demand for safe-haven assets, reflecting deeper considerations regarding interest rate cycles, asset allocation, and long-term inflation expectations [1][3] Employment Data - The latest ADP employment report indicates a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, contrary to market expectations of a gain of 50,000. This marks the first consecutive month of job losses since 2020 and the largest decline since March 2023 [1] - Weakness in the labor market diminishes confidence in economic recovery and strengthens expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a rate-cutting path [1] Precious Metals Performance - In a "dollar-neutral" environment, the focus shifts to fundamental and sentiment-driven factors, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,922.70 before closing at $3,892.60 [2] - The upward trend has formed a "shooting star" pattern, suggesting a potential short-term market adjustment, but not necessarily a complete trend reversal [2] Investment Strategies - Institutional investors are advised to consider both macroeconomic policies and technical signals when investing in precious metals, utilizing a combination of ETFs and futures to capture price increases while hedging against short-term volatility [3] - The core variables for the precious metals market remain interest rate trends and risk aversion, with a solid long-term upward logic for prices if weak employment data and loose monetary policy persist [3]

现货黄金周五下跌近1%，收于3316.26，金价本周虽然最后收于3300上方，黄金市场正显露趋势反转的早期征兆，因当前周线正构筑射击之星形态的关键看 跌信号，这在金价创出3500美元历史新高后显得尤为敏感。该形态的有效性需满足3260美元周低点被击穿的条件，若实现，将强化周三日线级别同款形态的 技术面特征。 消息面解读：下周三，有"小非农"之称的ADP就业报告也将在下周三公布，同时公布的还有最新的PCE通胀和消费数据。至关重要的核心PCE物价指数预计 在3月环比上涨0.1%，同比增速则较前值的2.8%有所放缓，至2.5%；个人消费预计将维持环比增长0.4%，表明美国家庭消费依然强劲。然而，真正的焦点将 是定于下周五公布的非农就业报告，目前关于美联储何时降息的猜测非常激烈。非农就业增长预计将从3月的22.8万人放缓到4月的13万人，失业率保持在 4.2%不变。4月平均工资可能环比增长0.3%。令人失望的非农报告数据，加上疲软的核心PCE数据，可能强化美联储6月而非7月降息25个基点的预期，但对 于5月，市场普遍预计美联储仍将按兵不动。 黄金下周走势分析 短趋势分析 四小时级别：避险过后金价在 3260 低点反弹 ...