source： 南华研究 尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/08/11 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 尿素套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空尿素期货来锁定利 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti-involution" speculative funds exited the market, causing the urea futures to decline, leading to the release of spot and futures sources, and the urea spot market will face pressure. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side. There are traders picking up goods for export, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. Factory backlogs and inventory pressures are not large, and spot quotes fluctuate slightly, supporting urea prices. With the gradual opening of export channels, there may be a phased rebound. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year. Overall, urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4] - Urea exports have been confirmed. Urea futures are mainly priced speculatively in the context of strong market speculation, so the futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with enhanced support below. Domestic policy suppression and the association's requirement for factories to sell urea at low prices have a negative impact on the spot sentiment [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Price Range Forecast - Urea price range forecast (monthly) is 1650 - 1950, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 27.16% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 62.1%. Methanol's price range is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a percentile of 51.2%. Polypropylene and plastic both have a price range of 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% and percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% respectively [3] Urea Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When finished - product inventory is high and worried about urea price decline, for a long spot position, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short urea futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can sell UR2509 and buy UR2509P1850 with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 1800 - 1950. Buying put options to prevent large price drops and selling call options to reduce capital costs. Buying put options has a 50% hedging ratio, and selling UR2509C1950 has a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 45 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - When procurement of regular inventory is low and wants to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising urea prices, buy urea futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs. Buy UR2509 with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 1750 - 1900. Selling put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the urea price drops. Sell UR2509P1750 with a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 20 - 25 [3]

尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/07/07 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 尿素套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心尿素价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空尿 ...