Report Information - Report Name: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The domestic urea fundamental valuation is low. Without further adjustment to the export policy, urea will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The short - term industry drive is weak. The mainstream domestic regional quotes have dropped significantly by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, with the North China mainstream quotes at 1470 - 1520 yuan/ton. The large - scale downstream compound fertilizer terminal pick - up during the holiday did not start as expected due to rainfall in major grain - producing areas, which hindered autumn harvest and sowing, leading to low fertilizer purchase demand and continuous price drops. The combination of fundamentals and macro - sentiment will keep urea weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts [4]. - Urea exports have been confirmed. The urea futures are mainly priced by speculation, so it is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern with enhanced downside support [5]. - Domestic policies suppress the market. The association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot sentiment [6]. Price and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops: Short UR2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton; buy UR2601P1850 put options with a 50% hedging ratio; sell UR2601C1950 call options to reduce capital costs [3]. - For low purchase inventory and hope to buy according to orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton; sell UR2601P1650 put options with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. Purchase Management - For low purchase inventory and hope to buy according to orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton; sell UR2601P1650 put options with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Bo (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021070) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% [3] - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline: Short UR2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 1800 - 1950; buy 50% UR2601P1850 put options; sell 50% UR2601C1950 call options [3] - For low - level purchase inventory and hope to purchase based on orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750; sell 75% UR2601P1650 put options [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Domestic urea prices continue to fall, with sufficient market supply, rising social inventory, and persistent domestic supply - demand pressure [4] - After the parade, industrial and compound fertilizer demand has a slight regional increase, but overall impact is limited, and downstream acceptance of current prices is low [4] - Upstream order - taking pressure is emerging, and urea factories are reducing prices to take orders. Continuously monitor 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [4] - In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports supports demand, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term [4] - Agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [4] Group 5:利多解读 - Urea exports are confirmed. Futures are expected to have a wide - range fluctuation pattern with enhanced downward support [5] Group 6:利空解读 - Domestic policies suppress the market, and the association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, negatively affecting spot sentiment [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is influenced by frequent export news, causing price fluctuations and interfering with spot transactions. The weekend saw price softening in sensitive areas, and upstream urea factories have gradually lowered their quotes. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side, and short - term inventory accumulation is unlikely. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year. Overall, urea has support at the bottom and resistance at the top, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - The confirmed urea exports strengthen the support at the bottom of the futures market, which is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern due to strong speculative pricing. On the other hand, domestic policy pressure, with the association requiring factories to sell urea at low prices, has a negative impact on spot sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Urea | 1650 - 1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | Methanol | 2200 - 2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy | Behavior Guidance | Situation Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management - High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs; buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | UR2509, UR2509P1850, UR2509C1950 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50%, - | 1800 - 1950, 15 - 20, 45 - 60 | | Procurement Management - Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to order situations | Short | To prevent rising urea prices from increasing procurement costs, buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops | UR2509, UR2509P1750 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 1750 - 1900, 20 - 25 | [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti-involution" speculative funds exited the market, causing the urea futures to decline, leading to the release of spot and futures sources, and the urea spot market will face pressure. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side. There are traders picking up goods for export, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. Factory backlogs and inventory pressures are not large, and spot quotes fluctuate slightly, supporting urea prices. With the gradual opening of export channels, there may be a phased rebound. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year. Overall, urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4] - Urea exports have been confirmed. Urea futures are mainly priced speculatively in the context of strong market speculation, so the futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with enhanced support below. Domestic policy suppression and the association's requirement for factories to sell urea at low prices have a negative impact on the spot sentiment [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Price Range Forecast - Urea price range forecast (monthly) is 1650 - 1950, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 27.16% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 62.1%. Methanol's price range is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a percentile of 51.2%. Polypropylene and plastic both have a price range of 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% and percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% respectively [3] Urea Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When finished - product inventory is high and worried about urea price decline, for a long spot position, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short urea futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can sell UR2509 and buy UR2509P1850 with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 1800 - 1950. Buying put options to prevent large price drops and selling call options to reduce capital costs. Buying put options has a 50% hedging ratio, and selling UR2509C1950 has a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 45 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - When procurement of regular inventory is low and wants to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising urea prices, buy urea futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs. Buy UR2509 with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 1750 - 1900. Selling put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the urea price drops. Sell UR2509P1750 with a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 20 - 25 [3]

尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/07/07 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 尿素套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心尿素价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空尿 ...