证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-15 海外主权债务风险走高；样本范围；全球货币体系持续演进。 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中共中央经济工作会议精神学习： 符合预期，整体定调更具针对性》 - 2025.12.12 宏观研究 理性看待货币政策对通胀的提振作用，关注居民去 杠杆 核心观点 11 月金融数据呈现以下特点：一是债券融资特点愈发明显，债券 融资增长对冲信贷融资需求放缓，实体经济融资需求相对平稳；二是 企业融资需求延续回升态势，或是新型政策金融工具带动；三是居民 短期信贷收缩，呈现居民去杠杆特点，或部分抵消贴息政策对消费的 提振作用；四是 M1 同比增速环比较为明显下降，应是短期居民去杠 杆的影响，M2 同比增速环比微跌，指向大量资金沉淀为定期存款，M1 与 M2 增速负剪刀差持续走扩，经济活性下降，未能有效转化为实体 投资与消费需求。 基于以上分析，我们理解，货币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a dichotomy between supportive policies and concerning data, leading to uncertainty about future housing affordability and choices [3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Multiple banks have reduced mortgage down payment ratios, with first-time homebuyers now at 20% and second-time buyers at 30% [1]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have implemented "recognizing house but not loan" policies, allowing buyers without existing mortgage records to access favorable rates [1]. Group 2: Market Data - In August, 42 cities saw a month-on-month decline in new home prices, while 96 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, indicating a broader market weakness [2]. - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale is rising sharply, with Shanghai nearing 200,000 listings, Beijing close to 190,000, and Guangzhou exceeding 130,000 [2]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions - Optimists believe that the influx of favorable policies will lead to a rebound in housing prices, suggesting that delaying purchases could result in missed opportunities [6]. - Pessimists argue that the short-term effects of policies are limited and that the long-term downward adjustment of the market is inevitable, potentially offering more choices in the future [8]. Group 4: Market Analysis - **Declining Demand**: The pandemic has significantly impacted household incomes, reducing purchasing power and leading to more cautious buying behavior [8]. - **Rental Yield Concerns**: The current rental yield in China suggests a significant property bubble, with landlords potentially needing 50-60 years to recoup their investment [8]. - **Rising Household Debt**: A large portion of household wealth is tied up in real estate, with 42% of families owning multiple properties, limiting their ability to take on more debt [9]. - **Increased Affordable Housing Supply**: The government is focusing on building more affordable housing to address the needs of low- and middle-income groups, which may help stabilize prices [9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the Chinese credit market and its implications for the economy, particularly in relation to the banking sector and real estate market [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Declining Credit Demand**: China's credit demand has shifted from insufficient supply to low demand, with new loans expected to be less than 17 trillion yuan in 2025, down from 23 trillion yuan in 2022, indicating a decline in both credit growth and volume, posing challenges to economic growth [1][3]. - **Weak Personal Loans**: In August, personal loans increased by only 30.3 billion yuan, reflecting a continued downturn in the real estate market, with second-hand home prices in Beijing dropping nearly 10% over the past quarter [1][5]. - **Manufacturing Sector Struggles**: The manufacturing industry faces overcapacity, leading to weak credit demand from enterprises. The gap between corporate deposits and loans has widened to over 60 trillion yuan, indicating that state-owned enterprises are borrowing heavily while market-oriented firms show insufficient financing needs [1][6]. - **Banking Sector Manipulations**: Banks are manipulating credit data through bill discounting and short-term loans to meet scale assessments, but these measures do not fundamentally address the underlying issue of weak credit demand [1][7]. - **Deleveraging Trends**: There is a clear trend of households actively deleveraging, with increased savings and reduced borrowing. The ratio of personal loans to deposits has significantly decreased, indicating low consumer willingness to spend [1][8][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Loan Projections**: The anticipated decline in new loans and social financing growth rates, projected to fall from 9.0% to around 8.0% by year-end, reflects weak investment demand and ongoing challenges in the real estate and manufacturing sectors [3][10]. - **Investment Outlook**: The outlook for long-term bonds remains positive, with a target yield of around 1.75% for ten-year government bonds, suggesting potential value for investors [3][12][18]. - **Market Sentiment**: Institutional attitudes towards ultra-long credit bonds are cautious, with a noted decline in net purchases by insurance and wealth management sectors, although there is still a strategy to accumulate on dips [17][19]. - **Economic Predictions**: The overall trend for the bond market in 2025 is expected to be volatile, with no clear directional movement, necessitating a careful approach to investment strategies [20][21]. Conclusion - The records highlight significant challenges in the Chinese credit market, with declining demand impacting both personal and corporate borrowing. The banking sector's response through data manipulation and the ongoing trend of deleveraging among households are critical factors to monitor. The investment outlook for bonds remains cautiously optimistic, with specific strategies recommended for conservative investors.