近期，沪指时隔十年重回4000点，这轮市场上涨的根本动力主要来自于资本市场信心的修复。过去较长 时间，中国优质资产的估值相比于海外始终处于较低位，"反内卷"政策落地、"九三阅兵"、党的二十届 四中全会等系列利好事件落地，都极大提振资本市场信心，居民资金开始加速入市，市场估值中枢得到 显著修复。数据显示，年内行情中，有色金属板块表现最为亮眼。不过，该板块前期的强劲涨势主要得 益于行业整体β行情的集中释放。随着市场进一步演化，如何在β动能之外，精准捕捉行业内细分领域 的超额机会，成为投资者面临的核心问题。 截至11月3日（下同），沪指年内涨幅接近19%，连续6个月收涨。在这一轮行情中，有色金属行业成为 最大赢家，申万31个行业中，有色金属指数以73.77%的涨幅领跑市场。 然而，超越行业整体表现的机会，往往藏在细分领域。相比投资者所熟悉的有色金属指数，该行业的细 分指数中证工业有色金属主题指数表现更为突出，年内涨幅达74.57%。跟踪该指数的唯一场内ETF万家 中证工业有色金属主题ETF（交易代码：560860，简称：工业有色ETF）年内涨幅达78.08%，最新规模 已超55亿元，较去年末暴增近15倍，成为年内最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery of the Shanghai Composite Index to 4000 points is primarily driven by the restoration of confidence in the capital market, supported by favorable policies and events that have encouraged increased investment from residents [1][2]. Market Performance - As of November 3, the Shanghai Composite Index has seen an annual increase of nearly 19%, marking six consecutive months of gains. The metals sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, has emerged as the biggest winner with a 73.77% increase [2]. - The sub-sector index, the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, has outperformed the broader index with a year-to-date increase of 74.57%. The corresponding ETF, the Wan Jia CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme ETF, has surged by 78.08%, with its scale exceeding 5.5 billion, a nearly 15-fold increase from the previous year [2][3]. ETF Development - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF, launched in February 2023, focuses solely on industrial metals, avoiding the distractions of energy and precious metals. This focus aligns with macroeconomic trends and manufacturing demand, making it a valuable tool for both retail and institutional investors [3][4]. - The ETF's revised index has achieved an impressive year-to-date increase of 81.73% and a rolling P/E ratio of 20.02, lower than the broader non-ferrous metals index [4]. Market Trends - The ETF has shown resilience during market fluctuations, with a smaller adjustment compared to other indices during high volatility periods. It has attracted significant capital inflow, indicating strong recognition from both retail and institutional investors [5]. - The long-term outlook for the industrial non-ferrous metals sector is positive, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a recovery in domestic demand for metals in construction and infrastructure [5]. Market Differentiation - The ETF market is experiencing structural differentiation, with a notable contrast between the stagnation of broad-based ETFs and the growth of niche ETFs like the Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF. This indicates a mismatch in supply and demand, as many institutions focus on broad strategies while neglecting specific investor needs [6][7]. - Wan Jia Fund has identified three market gaps: the lack of precise coverage for small-cap stocks, the absence of stable cash flow products, and the opportunity in Hong Kong stocks. The company has successfully launched products addressing these gaps, such as the first National 2000 ETF and a monthly dividend ETF [7][8]. Product Innovation - Wan Jia Fund's approach emphasizes "boutique" strategies, focusing on value rather than competing in crowded markets. This strategy has led to the development of a diverse ETF matrix covering various investment styles and themes [9]. - The success of these products is attributed to a systematic support structure, including a skilled team, effective technology, and a culture of diligence and responsibility [10][11]. Conclusion - The emergence of boutique ETFs reflects a shift from supply-driven to demand-driven strategies, highlighting the importance of precise matching of investment tools to investor needs. This trend suggests that in a competitive market, focusing on niche opportunities can yield better results than broad approaches [12].

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown significant recovery in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high of 4025.70 points by the end of October, leading to a strong performance of public equity funds and the emergence of numerous "doubling funds" [1][3] Group 1: Fund Performance - The average net value growth rate of actively managed equity funds for the first ten months reached 27.48%, with the best-performing funds exceeding 200% [3][5] - Over 98% of actively managed equity funds reported positive net value growth rates, with 705 funds achieving over 50% growth, and 34 funds surpassing 100% [7][5] - The top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, achieved a net value growth rate of 200.63%, capitalizing on opportunities in the cloud computing market [9][8] Group 2: Index and Sector Performance - Major indices such as the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index saw annual growth rates exceeding 50%, with the ChiNext Index at 48.84% [1][4] - The communication equipment sector emerged as a significant winner, with related index funds showing remarkable performance, including the Guotai CSI All-Index Communication Equipment ETF, which had a growth rate of 98.87% [12][13] Group 3: Investment Themes and Manager Insights - Fund managers are focusing on structural opportunities in sectors like AI, innovative drugs, and robotics, which have shown strong performance [7][14] - Investment strategies include a focus on domestic semiconductor equipment and energy storage, with managers highlighting the increasing production capacity of domestic storage chips and the growing demand for energy storage solutions [15][14]

Group 1 - The long-term narrative logic, liquidity support, and macro background suggest that the non-ferrous metal market is still in its early stages and has not yet reached its midpoint [2][39] - The strength of gold has been ongoing since last year, with the core logic being the weakening of the US dollar credit rather than just interest rate cuts, which are merely a catalytic factor [2][12][25] - The gold price is expected to continue rising at least until next year or the year after, driven by central bank purchases and the narrative of de-dollarization [2][3][25] Group 2 - Copper resources are not significantly overvalued, and the industrial non-ferrous metals sector is primarily driven by copper narratives, with other metals gaining attention due to increased copper consumption [2][10][39] - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant gains this year, with indices generally rising between 70% and 90%, outperforming other sectors [8][9][10] - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to infrastructure upgrades and the transition to smart grids, while supply is constrained by slow production growth and stricter environmental regulations [10][11][19] Group 3 - The recent volatility in the non-ferrous metal sector is notable, with daily fluctuations exceeding 5%, indicating a strong cyclical nature [34][40] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, considering a phased investment strategy to manage risks associated with high volatility [34][38] - Current valuations of non-ferrous metals appear reasonable, with static PE around 22 times and PB around 3.4 times, suggesting that despite significant price increases, the sector remains attractive [36][39]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% to close at 3897.03 points, with a weekly high of 3936.58 points. In contrast, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.26% to 13355.42 points, reaching a high of 13806.69 points. The ChiNext Index experienced a decline of 3.86%, closing at 3113.26 points, with a peak of 3322.44 points. Globally, major indices mostly declined, with the Nasdaq down 2.53%, the Dow Jones down 2.73%, and the S&P 500 down 2.43%. In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index fell by 3.13%, while the Nikkei 225 rose by 5.07% [1]. ETF Market Performance 1. Overall Performance - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was -0.84%. Among different categories, the highest weekly return was from the Penghua CSI 800 Free Cash Flow ETF at 2.42%, followed by the Wanji CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme ETF at 6.21% [2]. 2. Top and Bottom Performers - The top five performing stock ETFs were: - Wanji CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme ETF (6.21%) - Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF (5.27%) - Huaxia CSI Subdivision Nonferrous Metals Theme ETF (5.05%) - Yinhua CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF (4.84%) - Penghua Guozheng Nonferrous Metals Industry ETF (4.82%) [5][6] - The bottom five performing stock ETFs were: - Jiashi CSI Battery Theme ETF (-6.88%) - Huitianfu CSI Battery Theme ETF (-6.88%) - Fuguo CSI Battery Theme ETF (-6.8%) - Zhaoshang CSI Battery Theme ETF (-6.7%) - Huaxia CSI Animation Game ETF (-6.1%) [5][6] 3. Liquidity - The average daily trading volume of stock ETFs increased by 14.3%, with a 48.1% rise in average daily trading volume and a 0.71% increase in turnover rate [7]. 4. Fund Flows - The top five stock ETFs by fund inflow were: - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (inflow of 3.295 billion) - Jiashi Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETF (inflow of 2.748 billion) - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (inflow of 1.587 billion) - Yifangda Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (inflow of 1.226 billion) - Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF (inflow of 1.208 billion) [9][10] - The top five stock ETFs by fund outflow were: - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (outflow of 666 million) - Fuguo CSI A500 ETF (outflow of 575 million) - Southern CSI A500 ETF (outflow of 525 million) - Guangfa CSI A500 ETF (outflow of 305 million) - Yifangda CSI 300 ETF Initiated (outflow of 260 million) [9][10] Financing and Margin Trading - The financing balance for stock ETFs increased from 44.345 billion to 47.3024 billion, while the margin balance rose from 2.3399 billion shares to 2.3575 billion shares. The highest financing buy amount was for the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF, totaling 1.228 billion [12]. Market Size - The total number of ETFs in the market was 1317, with 1042 stock ETFs, 53 bond ETFs, 27 money market ETFs, 17 commodity ETFs, and 178 cross-border ETFs. The total market size for ETFs reached 5613.153 billion, a decrease of 12.221 billion from the previous week [13][15]. Institutional Insights 1. Investment Opportunities in Nonferrous Metals - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the nonferrous metals sector, noting that precious metals like gold saw significant gains during the recent holiday. Supply shortages and the logic of computational revolution have led to a noticeable increase in copper prices [17]. 2. Copper Price Trends - Huatai Securities indicates that frequent disturbances in copper mines since 2025 have had limited short-term supply impacts. The expected reduction in supply from the Grasberg mine in Q4 2025 could significantly improve the copper supply-demand balance, potentially leading to a price rally [18].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: October 10, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Shenwan Hongyuan Gold ETF Portfolio 202510 [1] - Analysts: Shen Siyi, Deng Hu [3] - Research Support: Bai Haotian [3] - Contact: Shen Enyi [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The report constructs four ETF portfolios, including the macro industry portfolio, macro + momentum industry portfolio, core - satellite portfolio, and trinity style rotation ETF portfolio, based on macro - sensitivity and momentum analysis, aiming to capture investment opportunities in different market environments [5][8]. - The current economic leading indicators are rising, liquidity indicators are slightly tight, and credit indicators remain positive. The portfolios are shifting towards a more balanced allocation, with an increased proportion of consumer sectors [5]. - The trinity style rotation model combines macro - liquidity, fundamental, and market sentiment factors to construct a medium - to long - term style rotation model, providing insights into market style preferences [5][9]. Group 4: ETF Portfolio Construction Methods 4.1 Based on Macro - Method - Calculate macro - sensitivity for broad - based, industry - theme, and Smart Beta ETFs based on economic, liquidity, and credit variables. Traditional cyclical industries are sensitive to the economy, TMT to liquidity, and consumption to credit [8]. - Construct three ETF portfolios (macro industry, macro + momentum industry, and core - satellite) using macro - sensitivity and momentum, and rebalance monthly [8]. 4.2 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - Build a medium - to long - term style rotation model centered on macro - liquidity, comparing with the CSI 300 index. Screen macro, fundamental, and market sentiment factors to construct three types of models (growth/value, market - cap, and quality) [9]. Group 5: Portfolio Details 5.1 Macro Industry Portfolio - Select the top 6 industry - theme indices based on macro - sensitivity scores, and equally weight the largest - scale corresponding ETFs. Currently, the portfolio is more balanced with an increased consumer proportion [5][10]. - October 2025 holdings include ETFs related to tourism, home appliances, chemicals, etc. [14]. - In 2025, the portfolio had varying monthly excess returns, with positive excess returns in September [15]. 5.2 Macro + Momentum Industry Portfolio - Combine macro and momentum methods. The pharmaceutical sector's weight is further reduced, and rare earth and battery sectors are selected on the momentum side [5][16]. - October 2025 holdings include multiple industry - themed ETFs [18]. - The portfolio performed well in 2025, with positive excess returns in September after a drawdown in August [19]. 5.3 Core - Satellite Portfolio - Use the CSI 300 as the core and combine broad - based, industry, and Smart Beta portfolios. Weight them at 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively [20][21]. - October 2025 holdings include a mix of broad - based and industry - themed ETFs [24][25]. - The portfolio performed steadily in 2025, outperforming the index almost every month [25]. 5.4 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - The model currently favors small - cap growth and high - quality styles. The portfolio's factor exposure and historical performance are presented [26][27]. - October 2025 holdings include ETFs related to small - cap indices and high - growth sectors [31]. - The portfolio has shown certain performance since 2021, with positive excess returns in September 2025 [30].

Core Insights - The article provides a ranking of open-end funds based on their net asset value growth as of September 18, 2025, highlighting the top and bottom performers in the market [2][4]. Fund Performance Summary - The top 10 funds with the highest net value growth include: 1. Yinhua Integrated Circuit Mixed A: Unit Net Value 1.3106, Cumulative Net Value 1.3106, Growth 0.05% 2. Yinhua Integrated Circuit Mixed C: Unit Net Value 1.3007, Cumulative Net Value 1.3007, Growth 0.05% 3. Xinhua Preferred Dividend Mixed C: Unit Net Value 1.0452, Cumulative Net Value 1.0452, Growth 0.03% 4. Xinhua Preferred Dividend Mixed A: Unit Net Value 1.0128, Cumulative Net Value 4.8173, Growth 0.03% 5. Xinhua Strategy Selected Stock C: Unit Net Value 2.2550, Cumulative Net Value 2.2550, Growth 0.08% 6. Xinhua Strategy Selected Stock A: Unit Net Value 2.2549, Cumulative Net Value 2.6929, Growth 0.08% 7. Nuon Optimized Configuration Mixed C: Unit Net Value 2.3575, Cumulative Net Value 2.3575, Growth 0.08% 8. Nuon Optimized Configuration Mixed A: Unit Net Value 2.3788, Cumulative Net Value 2.3788, Growth 0.08% 9. Xinhua Trend Navigation Mixed: Unit Net Value 3.4791, Cumulative Net Value 4.7345, Growth 0.12% 10. Huaxia CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF: Unit Net Value 1.3891, Cumulative Net Value 1.3891, Growth 0.04% [2][4]. - The bottom 10 funds with the lowest net value growth include: 1. HSBC Jintrust Longteng Mixed C: Unit Net Value 1.2513, Cumulative Net Value 1.2513, Decline -0.05% 2. HSBC Jintrust Longteng Mixed A: Unit Net Value 1.2604, Cumulative Net Value 3.7564, Decline -0.05% 3. Huafu Yongxin Flexible Allocation Mixed C: Unit Net Value 1.5008, Cumulative Net Value 1.5008, Decline -0.06% 4. Huafu Yongxin Flexible Allocation Mixed A: Unit Net Value 1.5447, Cumulative Net Value 1.5447, Decline -0.06% 5. Wanjia CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme ETF: Unit Net Value 1.2062, Cumulative Net Value 1.2062, Decline -0.04% 6. Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold and Silver Jewelry Mixed C: Unit Net Value 2.1250, Cumulative Net Value 2.1250, Decline -0.08% 7. Qianhai Kaiyuan All Silver Jewelry Mixed A: Unit Net Value 2.1740, Cumulative Net Value 2.1740, Decline -0.08% 8. Golden Eagle Cycle Preferred Mixed C: Unit Net Value 0.7680, Cumulative Net Value 0.7680, Decline -0.03% 9. Golden Eagle Cycle Preferred Mixed A: Unit Net Value 0.7773, Cumulative Net Value 0.7773, Decline -0.03% 10. HSBC Jintrust Era Pioneer Mixed C: Unit Net Value 0.8792, Cumulative Net Value 0.8792, Decline -0.03% [4]. Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight rebound followed by a decline, closing with a medium bearish report, while the ChiNext Index showed volatility with a recovery after initial losses. The total trading volume reached 3.16 trillion, with a market breadth of 1027 gainers to 4350 losers [6]. - Leading sectors included tourism, hotel and catering, and communication equipment, each with gains exceeding 2%, while the non-ferrous and diversified financial sectors saw declines exceeding 3% [6].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On September 17, a total of 39.78 billion yuan net inflow was recorded for industry-themed ETF funds, with a cumulative net inflow of 124.46 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest in these funds [1]. Fund Inflows - A total of 123 industry-themed ETF funds experienced net inflows on September 17, with the leading fund being the Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF (512880), which saw an increase of 9.36 million shares and a net inflow of 11.88 billion yuan [1][3]. - Other notable funds with significant net inflows include: - Huabao CSI Financial Technology Theme ETF (159851) with a net inflow of 5.25 billion yuan [3]. - Huaxia CSI Robotics ETF (562500) with a net inflow of 5.01 billion yuan [3]. - Guotai Securities ETF (512000) with a net inflow of 3.59 billion yuan [3]. Fund Outflows - On the same day, 164 industry-themed ETF funds experienced net outflows, with the Guotai CSI Coal ETF (515220) leading the outflows, which saw a reduction of 4.21 million shares and a net outflow of 4.6 billion yuan [4][5]. - Other funds with significant net outflows include: - Huabao CSI Medical ETF (512170) with a net outflow of 1.50 billion yuan [5]. - Penghua CSI Sub-Segment Chemical Industry ETF (159870) with a net outflow of 1.49 billion yuan [5]. - Huatai-PineBridge CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF (516780) with a net outflow of 1.36 billion yuan [5].