商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 27 日 LLDPE：震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6969 | -0.07% | 229,753 | -2302 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | -59 | | -99 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -52 | | -45 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6910 | | 6900 | | | | 华东 | 6980 | | 6950 | | | | 华南 | 7180 | | 7100 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 期货研究 【现货消息】 LLDPE 市场价格小幅涨跌，幅度在 10-50 元/吨。线性期货高开，但盘中偏弱震荡，市 ...

Market Overview - The stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points and the ChiNext Index dropping over 5% at one point [1] - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.94% to 3897.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.7% to 13355.42 points, and the ChiNext Index declined by 4.55% to 3113.26 points [1] - The STAR 50 Index saw a drop of 5.61%, with total trading volume across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 25,345 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant downturn, with declines in non-ferrous metals and chip stocks [1] - Conversely, sectors such as gas, coal, steel, agriculture, food and beverage, oil, and real estate showed gains [1] - Financial sectors including insurance, banking, brokerage, and liquor also saw upward movement [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the market is currently in a consolidation phase that has persisted since late August, and a trend-driven market may require new catalysts [1] - Despite the downward pressure, the risk of further declines is considered limited due to several important changes that have previously heightened market liquidity [1] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October is expected to review the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, which may support market expectations [1]

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04% and the ChiNext Index down 0.16%, while sectors like liquor and oil extraction showed activity, and rare earth permanent magnets and innovative drugs faced declines [1] - Huaxi Securities focuses on the upcoming Lujiazui Forum on June 18, expecting the release of significant financial policies that could support the A-share market's upward momentum [1] - The recent negotiations between China and the US align with market expectations, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting global risk appetite, leading to short-term fluctuations in A-shares [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities anticipates that the A-share market will likely maintain a volatile trend in the short term, emphasizing the importance of structural opportunities [2] - Despite external uncertainties, domestic economic resilience is expected to strengthen due to ongoing policy support, with a notable trend of residents reallocating wealth towards financial assets [2] - The expansion of equity public funds and the influx of medium to long-term capital are expected to contribute to a stable and improving funding environment for A-shares [2] Group 3 - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that stable capital market policies provide a "buffer" against macro disturbances, allowing for a focus on sector performance rather than macroeconomic analysis [3] - The primary downside risk for the market is linked to long-term transmission chains, particularly if the US economy underperforms, which could delay improvements in A-share supply-demand dynamics [3] - The process of validating China's global competitiveness is seen as a phase for optimistic expectations to develop, although this may also introduce potential disturbances as market conditions change [3]