Core Insights - The report discusses a fundamental shift in the global asset pricing paradigm from a "monetary-dominated" phase to a "fiscal-dominated" phase, characterized by significant "K-shaped divergence" among various asset classes [1][2][6] - The report highlights that U.S. equities continue to reach new highs despite ongoing employment data declines, indicating a desensitization to recession pricing [1][2] - Gold has broken free from the suppression of high real interest rates, exhibiting an independent market trend, while the relationship between copper prices and inflation expectations has weakened [1][2] Group 1: K-shaped Divergence - The K-shaped divergence is evident as U.S. stocks show a significant deviation from employment data, with a divergence degree of approximately 140%-170% for U.S. stocks and interest rates, and over 400% for gold [1][2][6] - The core driver of this divergence is the embedded "fiscal risk premium" in asset prices, which has become a critical variable since 2022 [1][2][6] Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - Quantitative assessments reveal that the divergence between nominal interest rates and implied rates for gold and copper has reached a maximum of 660 basis points since 2022 [1][2][6] - The initial phase of the fiscal risk premium has been primarily priced through extreme increases in gold, rather than directly impacting nominal interest rates [1][2][6] Group 3: Future Scenarios - Three potential macro paths for the evolution of K-shaped divergence are outlined: 1. A mild recovery scenario where the market remains in the gold coordinate system, awaiting a correction in copper prices and inflation expectations [2][6] 2. An inflation runaway scenario leading to political shocks and visible fiscal risks, resulting in soaring interest rates and a depreciation of the dollar [2][6] 3. A scenario of economic contraction where worsening employment may trigger liquidity pressures, although the safe-haven attributes of U.S. Treasuries may limit their downside [2][6] Group 4: Dollar Dynamics - The dollar's performance is significantly influenced by "relative fiscal risk," with non-U.S. economies facing earlier fiscal pressures, thereby supporting the structural strength of the dollar [2][6]

西南证券认为，当前市场正处在一个由"财政主导"驱动的危险且分裂时刻，传统宏观逻辑失效，美股与黄金共同成为对冲法币信用风险的工具。西南证券分 析指出，市场隐含高达600bp的利率裂口，财政风险暂由黄金的极致上涨定价；未来该风险的释放将依赖"金跌、铜涨、利率下"的路径进行边际缓释，投资 者应密切关注这三者的相对变化。 现在的市场正处于一个极其危险且分裂的时刻。 据追风交易台，12月4日，据西南证券研究显示，自2023年以来，全球大类资产定价已进入一个全新的"财政主导"阶段，传统的宏观经济传导逻辑基本失 效。市场呈现出剧烈的"K型背离"：美股无视就业回调持续走高，黄金在高实际利率环境中创出新高，各类资产定价中普遍嵌入了"财政风险溢价"。 核心的风险并非来自经济周期本身，而是来自被暂时隐藏的财政压力。测算显示，当前体系隐含高达600bp的利率裂口，在宏观失控前，财政风险被暂时隐 匿于黄金的极致上涨中，未来该风险张力的释放与收敛，将主要依赖"金跌、铜涨、利率下"的路径进行边际缓释。 这意味着投资者需要关注黄金、铜和利率的相对变化，将其作为衡量系统性风险释放的关键指标。资产价格已呈现"双重一致性"结构：一方面，美股与黄金 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses a significant shift in the pricing paradigm of major assets, characterized by a "K-shaped divergence" where traditional macroeconomic anchors have failed, leading to a decoupling of asset prices from economic fundamentals [4][10][37] - The report quantifies the extent of K-shaped divergence, revealing that the S&P 500 has deviated by approximately 141% from employment data, while gold has shown an extreme deviation of over 400%, indicating a fundamental shift from a "monetary-dominated" phase to a "fiscal-dominated" phase [4][20][37] - The analysis highlights the relationship between interest rates, copper, and gold, noting that since 2022, the nominal interest rates have diverged significantly from implied rates derived from copper and gold, with a maximum gap of 660 basis points [4][38][41] Group 2 - The report introduces a unique "gold coordinate system" perspective, suggesting that in this framework, the S&P 500 aligns more closely with employment data, indicating that the stock market has transformed into a "gold-like" asset that hedges against currency depreciation [4][42][46] - The analysis of various asset models shows that the extreme divergence of the S&P 500 and gold reflects a deep-seated fiscal risk premium embedded in asset prices, with a notable 600 basis point gap between actual interest rates and implied equilibrium rates [4][59][54] - The report outlines potential macro paths for the future evolution of K-shaped divergence, including scenarios of moderate recovery, inflationary pressures leading to political shocks, and recessionary pathways, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding mid-term recession risks [4][61][69]