原标题：战略制胜 百年变局谋未来——二○二五年世界科技发展回顾·科技政策篇 编者按 2025年，世界政治经济风云激荡，看得见、看不见的硝烟让未来变得晦暗不明。然而这一切， 掩不住科技的"天空"下一派百花竞放的盛景：人工智能在向各行各业全面进军，推动社会从信息化向智 能化转型；量子计算机在解决特定问题的同时，向"通用"之境加速迈进；基因编辑技术屡克医学壁垒， 为治愈疑难疾病带来曙光；可再生能源成为全球最大电力来源，助力生态环境不断恢复……本报梳理一 年来国际科学技术方面取得的主要进展，这些成果将向人们证明，世界可以因科技而变得越来越好。 俄罗斯 Russia 强调实现技术自主 全面启动"国家项目" ◎本报驻俄罗斯记者 张 浩 12月，普京提出包括"加快人工智能（AI）运用"在内的六大系统性任务，要求精细化调整技术政策管理 体系，确保国家项目资金到位，并推动从筹备向一线实施转换。同月设立的军事技术合作信息保障中 心，则体现了军民技术融合与国际协作并重的政策意图。 法国 France 提升国家竞争实力 巩固科技枢纽地位 ◎本报记者 李宏策 2025年，俄罗斯科技政策的主要特点是围绕"技术自主"主线展开系统性布局。 ...

Group 1: Domestic Chip Substitution - The rise of domestic AI chip manufacturers is marked by significant stock price increases, with companies like Cambrian Technology surpassing major firms like Kweichow Moutai [1] - The market anticipates more AI chip companies to go public, with notable performances from companies like Moer Technology and Muxi Co., which saw stock prices increase over four times on their debut [1] - The domestic market for intelligent computing chips is expected to grow from approximately 20% in 2024 to around 60% by 2029, indicating a strong trend towards domestic chip substitution [2] Group 2: AI Application Growth - The demand for AI inference is projected to continue growing as more AI applications are deployed, leading to increased procurement of domestic AI chips by data centers and cloud providers [2] - The shift in AI computing demand from training to inference presents opportunities for domestic chips, which can meet the lower performance requirements of inference tasks [1][2] Group 3: Quantum Computing Developments - Quantum technology is recognized as a strategic frontier technology, with significant breakthroughs expected in the coming years, although widespread application may still be 20 years away [6] - China's advancements in quantum communication and computing are noteworthy, with the "Zu Chongzhi No. 3" quantum computer expected to maintain a significant speed advantage over traditional supercomputers [6][7] Group 4: Commercial Space Acceleration - The commercial space sector is entering a new phase of rapid evolution, supported by government policies and increased capital investment [8] - The global commercial space market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.5% over the next five years, indicating strong demand and investment potential [8][9] Group 5: Solid-State Battery Innovations - Solid-state batteries are gaining attention as a transformative technology for electric vehicles, with several major automakers announcing plans for testing and production by 2026 [10][11] - Despite the excitement in the market, challenges remain in terms of cost, manufacturing processes, and achieving large-scale production [10][11] Group 6: L3 Autonomous Driving Advancements - The introduction of L3 autonomous driving technology is accelerating, with regulatory frameworks being established to support its commercial application [12][13] - The next few years are critical for the development of L3 technology, with expectations for increased vehicle production and improved algorithms [12][13] Group 7: Real Estate Debt Restructuring - Major real estate companies in China, such as Country Garden and Sunac, are successfully completing debt restructuring processes, which are crucial for their long-term recovery [14][15] - The restructuring methods include debt-to-equity swaps and extending repayment periods, aimed at reducing debt burdens and improving financial health [14]

Group 1: Domestic Chip Replacement - The rise of domestic AI chip manufacturers is marked by significant stock price increases, with companies like Cambrian Technology surpassing major brands like Kweichow Moutai [1] - The market anticipates more AI chip companies to go public, with notable performances from companies like Moer Thread and Muxi, indicating strong investor interest in domestic chip alternatives [1] - The domestic market share for smart computing chips is projected to grow from approximately 20% in 2024 to about 60% by 2029, reflecting a shift towards local production [2] Group 2: AI Edge Computing - The emergence of AI in hardware is expected to redefine traditional devices, with predictions that mobile phones and apps may become obsolete in favor of AI-driven edge devices [3] - The global edge AI market is forecasted to grow from 321.9 billion yuan to 1.22 trillion yuan between 2025 and 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 40% [4] - The focus of competition is shifting from hardware specifications to AI experience and ecosystem collaboration, indicating a transformation in the value chain [5] Group 3: Quantum Computing Advances - Quantum technology is recognized as a strategic frontier for technological revolution, with significant breakthroughs expected in the coming years [6] - China's advancements in quantum communication and computing are positioning it alongside global leaders, with the "Zu Chongzhi No. 3" quantum computer expected to maintain a competitive edge [7] - The practical application of quantum computing in fields like finance and protein simulation is anticipated to grow, marking a critical step towards commercialization [6] Group 4: Commercial Space Acceleration - The commercial space sector is entering a new phase of rapid evolution, supported by government policies and increased capital investment [8] - The global commercial space market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.5% over the next five years [8] - The demand for satellite launches is expected to surge, with significant increases in the number of satellites being deployed [9] Group 5: Solid-State Battery Development - Solid-state batteries are gaining attention as a transformative technology for electric vehicles, with major manufacturers announcing plans for testing and production [10] - The timeline for mass production is set for 2027, with initial production expected to be in small batches [11] - The industry faces challenges in cost and manufacturing processes, with a consensus that semi-solid batteries will precede full solid-state solutions [10] Group 6: L3 Autonomous Driving - The introduction of L3 autonomous driving is accelerating due to supportive policies and decreasing costs in the supply chain [12] - The commercial application of L3 technology is expected to expand significantly in 2026, with several manufacturers already in the approval process [13] - The transition from assisted to fully automated driving represents a critical milestone for the industry, with ongoing improvements in technology and data accumulation [13] Group 7: Real Estate Debt Restructuring - Major real estate companies like Country Garden and Sunac have successfully completed debt restructuring, indicating a shift in the industry’s approach to financial challenges [14] - The total scale of debt restructuring in 2025 reached approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, significantly alleviating short-term repayment pressures for affected companies [14] - The focus for 2026 will be on balancing risk management and transformation within the real estate sector, with expectations for continued progress in debt resolution [15] Group 8: "15th Five-Year Plan" Initiatives - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and technological self-reliance as key objectives for the next five years [16] - The plan outlines initiatives to enhance the modern industrial system and promote strategic emerging industries, including quantum technology and renewable energy [17] - Increasing the resident consumption rate is highlighted as a crucial goal, with measures aimed at boosting consumer spending and improving living standards [18]

Core Insights - Quantum computing is emerging as a key driver of the new technological revolution and industrial transformation, particularly through its integration with artificial intelligence (AI) [1] - The combination of quantum computing and AI is seen as a critical path to overcoming computational limitations and accelerating commercialization [1] Technological Breakthroughs - The global quantum computing landscape is diversifying, with three main technical routes: superconducting, photonic, and ion trap [2] - Two core directions in quantum computing are identified: gate-based universal quantum computers and non-gate-based specialized quantum computers, with D-Wave and Boson Quantum as representatives [2] - The integration of quantum computing and AI is a mutually empowering process, where AI aids in the development of quantum computers and quantum computing enhances AI's computational capabilities [2] Commercialization Acceleration - The technological breakthroughs in "quantum + AI" are driving the accelerated industrial application of quantum computing [3] - Unlike AI, which relies on high-quality data, quantum computing can operate independently of data quality, particularly in drug development [3] - Boson Quantum has developed a Python-based compiler to lower the algorithm development barrier for users without a quantum computing background [3] - A new specialized photonic quantum computer manufacturing facility in Shenzhen is expected to produce 30 to 50 units annually to address the supply shortage [3] Business Models - Boson Quantum has established three main business models: complete machine sales, cloud services, and "quantum computing + industry solutions" [4] - Collaborations with companies like Weid Information and Electronic City are expanding the application boundaries of quantum computing in sectors like power scheduling and chip design [4] Ecosystem Development - The global quantum computing industry is currently in a phase of diverse development, with both universal and specialized routes progressing [5] - It is predicted that universal quantum computers will take about ten years to achieve practical application, while specialized quantum computers will see earlier industrialization [5] - Future quantum computing products are expected to combine quantum computing bases, quantum algorithm frameworks, and AI products, leading to advanced applications similar to DeepSeek and Tongyi Qianwen [5] Future Outlook - Boson Quantum recently completed a financing round of several hundred million yuan to support the development of specialized and universal quantum computers, as well as to expand the commercial ecosystem of "quantum computing + AI" [6] - Over the next five years, three major breakthroughs in quantum computing are anticipated: standardized industrial production, an explosion in quantum AI, and deep integration with classical computing systems [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of quantum mechanics as it approaches its 100th anniversary in 2025, highlighting its impact on both scientific understanding and popular culture, particularly in science fiction [1] Group 1: Quantum Mechanics and Theories - Quantum mechanics has fundamentally altered human understanding of the objective world and has inspired numerous science fiction narratives, including the concept of "parallel universes" [1] - Hugh Everett proposed the "Many-Worlds Interpretation" in the 1950s to address the "measurement problem" in quantum physics, suggesting that particles exist in multiple states simultaneously until observed, leading to the creation of multiple universes [2] - The "Many-Worlds Interpretation" is considered by some scholars, like Sean Carroll, as the most elegant explanation of quantum mechanics, as it avoids the need for additional "collapse" rules and aligns well with mathematical formulations [3] Group 2: Criticism and Popularity of Theories - Despite its supporters, the "Many-Worlds Interpretation" faces criticism from notable physicists like Roger Penrose, who argue that it should be abandoned due to its inability to be tested or falsified [3] - A survey conducted by the journal Nature indicated that the "Many-Worlds Interpretation" ranks as the third most popular theory among physicists, with the "Copenhagen Interpretation" being the most favored [3] Group 3: Philosophical Implications and Cultural Impact - The interpretations of quantum mechanics remain largely philosophical and do not provide different experimental predictions, indicating a need for new physical phenomena that extend beyond current quantum measurement theories [4] - If parallel universes exist, they may not differ significantly from our own, as they would likely share the same physical laws and human experiences, leading to only minor variations [5] - The scientific community generally believes that physical laws prevent individuals from traveling between parallel universes, reinforcing the idea that events in one universe do not affect another [6] - Science fiction has played a role in popularizing complex quantum concepts, stimulating public interest in scientific exploration, even if it diverges from strict scientific accuracy [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of quantum technology as a key driver for future economic growth in China, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5][9]. Group 1: Quantum Technology as a Future Industry - Quantum technology is identified as the first among six future industries that will drive economic development, highlighting its critical role in the new industrial revolution [5][9]. - The unique properties of quantum, such as superposition and entanglement, enable revolutionary applications in computing, communication, and precision measurement, which are expected to lead to exponential growth in various sectors [3][7]. - The potential market size for quantum technology is projected to reach several hundred billion yuan over the next decade, with significant impacts on other industries as well [7][9]. Group 2: National Strategy and Investment - The Chinese government has made substantial investments in quantum technology since 2013, establishing a robust foundation for its development through strategic planning and resource allocation [9][11]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a clear commitment to advancing quantum technology, with a focus on transitioning from laboratory breakthroughs to real-world applications [11][19]. - Various regions in China are developing specialized quantum technology parks and incubators to accelerate the commercialization and practical application of quantum innovations [17][19]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the promising outlook, challenges remain, including high initial commercialization costs and the need for breakthroughs in key technologies [19][21]. - The government is encouraged to implement diverse policy support systems to reduce exploration costs and foster investment in quantum technology [21]. - Continued emphasis on integrating technological and industrial innovation is essential for the successful deployment of quantum applications in sectors such as healthcare, telecommunications, energy, and finance [19][21].

Core Insights - 2025 is designated as the "International Year of Quantum Science and Technology," marking a pivotal year for the transition of quantum technology from theoretical research to industrial application. Major countries are intensifying their quantum strategic layouts, with China's "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizing quantum technology as a key future industry, establishing it as a new arena for global competition [1][3][18]. Industry Overview - Quantum computing, regarded as the crown jewel of quantum technology, possesses the highest technical barriers, the strongest disruptive potential, and the greatest growth prospects. It is expected to redefine the boundaries of classical computing through exponential computing power breakthroughs, serving as a critical engine for the next technological revolution [1][3][18]. - The quantum computing industry is entering a high-growth phase, with the global market projected to exceed $800 billion by 2035. The downstream sector is still in its early development stage but holds significant growth potential [1][11][29]. Technological Landscape - The current era of quantum computing is characterized as the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era, with mainstream technological paths such as superconducting, ion trap, photonic, and neutral atom technologies advancing simultaneously without convergence. The upstream of the industry chain, which includes quantum chips and measurement control systems, is a key development focus [1][4][22]. - The midstream encompasses quantum computers and software algorithms, where high costs and algorithm complexity may lead cloud platforms to become critical for accelerating penetration into downstream applications [4][22]. Market Potential - According to Photon Box Research Institute, the quantum computing industry is expected to enter a high compound growth phase, with the global market size projected to grow from approximately $5 billion in 2024 to around $800 billion by 2035, capturing nearly 90% of the quantum technology market share. The upstream sector is relatively mature and shows significant growth, while the downstream sector is in its infancy with substantial growth potential [11][29].

Macro News - A-shares have set a new record with total annual trading volume exceeding 405 trillion yuan, marking the first time it has surpassed 400 trillion yuan in history. The average turnover rate for the year is close to 1.74%, potentially reaching a new high since 2016. Notably, 19 stocks have recorded annual trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Dongfang Caifu exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%. Analysts suggest that the stability in policy rates and slight increases in market financing costs have led to a lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [1] - Economic growth may face downward pressure in Q1 2026 due to changes in growth momentum and high base effects from the previous year. Monetary policy is expected to enter a more active phase, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated to stimulate financing demand [2] - According to CME's "Fed Watch," there is an 80.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January 2024, with a 19.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] Industry News - Shanghai aims to achieve significant breakthroughs in synthetic biological food creation by 2027, enhancing the digital manufacturing level of food. The plan includes developing 3-5 new food raw materials and establishing a standard system for food industry development [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set a target for solar thermal power generation to reach a total installed capacity of approximately 15 million kilowatts by 2030, with costs comparable to coal power. The industry aims for international leadership and self-sufficiency [5] - Research on quantum error correction has made significant progress, bringing practical quantum computing closer. This achievement is a key milestone in validating the transition from prototype to practical quantum computing systems [6][7] Sector Insights - CITIC Securities reports that liquid cooling solutions are becoming the mainstream technology for energy-saving in data centers, with the global liquid cooling market expected to reach $21.8 billion by 2027. Domestic manufacturers are poised to benefit from the growing demand for AI data center liquid cooling [8] - Dongxing Securities notes that the domestic automotive market is experiencing accelerated electrification and the rise of independent brands, with a shift in competition towards intelligent features. Leading companies in data training and intelligent driving ecosystems are expected to capture more market share [8] - Guotai Junan Securities anticipates that precious metals will experience upward fluctuations due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with expectations of continued liquidity in the market leading to stable price increases for precious metals [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of China's economy as it transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," highlighting a shift from quantitative growth to qualitative changes driven by deep technology and societal needs [1][30]. Group 1: Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is shifting focus from "computational power competition" to "embodied intelligence and vertical penetration," with humanoid robots poised for large-scale deployment [2][4]. - The demand for "vertical domain + AI" talent is increasing, as industries require professionals who understand both AI technology and specific industry knowledge [6]. Group 2: Energy Transition - The energy revolution is entering a "second half," focusing on energy storage and grid stability rather than just power generation [6][7]. - By 2030, China's non-fossil energy consumption is expected to reach 25%, with a total installed capacity of wind and solar power exceeding 1.2-2.4 billion kilowatts [7]. Group 3: Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is recognized as a new pillar industry, facing challenges in manufacturing technology, market maturity, and infrastructure development [11][12]. - The space information industry is expected to grow significantly, driven by satellite networking and data empowerment, creating demand for various new professional roles [13]. Group 4: 6G Communication - 6G is anticipated to be a central driver of the digital economy, with a projected global market size exceeding 24.4 trillion yuan by 2040, and China expected to be a major market [17]. - The integration of communication, sensing, and computing capabilities in 6G will revolutionize sectors like autonomous driving and industrial internet [19]. Group 5: Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is moving towards practical applications, with a projected market size of $17.689 trillion by 2029, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 32% [20][23]. - There is a significant talent gap in the quantum computing field, particularly for interdisciplinary professionals who can bridge quantum physics and computer science [23]. Group 6: Biomanufacturing and Silver Economy - The aging population is creating a "silver economy" market projected to reach 25 trillion yuan by 2030, with biomanufacturing playing a key role in addressing health needs [24][28]. - Professions related to biomanufacturing and personalized healthcare are expected to expand significantly during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [28]. Group 7: Productive Services Industry - The productive services industry is becoming a core support for manufacturing, with its GDP share expected to rise from 28% to 35% by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [29]. - Key growth areas include high-end technology services, industrial digitalization, and green consulting services, driven by the need for innovation and sustainability [29]. Conclusion and Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding long-term technological and societal trends for investment and career opportunities during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [30][31].

Core Thesis - Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is facing significant near-term downside due to forced selling pressure from multiple ETF rebalances occurring on December 19th, which includes a $30 million liquidation of RGTI shares from the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) [2][4] Company Fundamentals - RGTI has a market capitalization of $10 billion but generated less than $2 million in revenue last quarter while burning through $43.6 million in cash over nine months, primarily funded through retail share sales [4] - The company has not seen any insider purchases since June 2022, with recent insider sales occurring as recently as December 10th, and the CEO holding no shares, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future [3][4] Market Dynamics - The convergence of ETF-driven selling, ongoing insider exits, and weak operational performance creates a high-risk environment for existing shareholders, suggesting a potential sharp market correction for RGTI [4][5] - The stock has experienced a run-up over the quarter despite negative earnings and an unreasonably high price relative to its fundamentals, making it particularly vulnerable to the upcoming selling pressure [3][4]