石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-08 现货持稳为主，盘面震荡运行 市场分析 1、1月7日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3160元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌4元/吨，跌幅0.13%； 持仓222253手，环比上涨12839手，成交309749手，环比上升85312手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3306—3500元/吨；山东，3050—3190元/吨；华南，3100—3150元/吨； 华东，3100—3200元/吨。 昨日国内沥青现货整体持稳为主，华北、山东地区出现小幅上涨。目前来看，市场在定价委油收紧预期后进入震 荡阶段，在南美局势升级、美国加强意图控制委内瑞拉资源的背景下，委内瑞拉原油对国内炼厂供应收紧的预期 尚未证伪，未来炼厂可以从中东、加拿大、南美等地寻找替代重质原料，成本的增加或难以避免，市场短期存在 支撑。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多，逢低多BU主力合约，不宜过度追涨 跨期：逢低多BU2303/2306价差（正套） 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects to report a loss attributable to shareholders not exceeding 500,000 HKD for the six months ending September 30, 2025, compared to a profit of approximately 3 million HKD for the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The anticipated loss is primarily attributed to increased sales and distribution costs due to the expansion of business and an increase in the number of sales points [1] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and gross profit from tourism-related products due to negative impacts from rumors of an earthquake in Japan during the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Operational Challenges - The increase in administrative and other operating expenses is linked to the growing number of logistics support system development projects, resulting in higher consulting fees and employee costs [1] - The board emphasizes the need to implement effective measures to expand business channels and enhance brand image to improve competitive advantage [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Industrial silicon [1] - Report Cycle: Daily report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The industry is in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but inventory depletion has significantly slowed down, and there are signs of inventory accumulation, indicating that the fundamentals have turned loose. Considering the different supply changes in the two major production areas and the uncertainty of the demand for polysilicon in the core consumption direction, there is no obvious unilateral driver in the market, and the futures price may fluctuate around the cost line [10]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 9, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract rose and then fell, closing with a negative line. The trading volume decreased significantly, with a full - day trading volume of 210,531 lots and an open interest of 176,563 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 407,790 lots, an increase of 8,057 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 2,165 lots [4]. 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In the southwest production area, as the wet season is coming to an end, the smelting electricity price is facing an increase, leading to higher production costs. In the north production area, the electricity price is relatively stable throughout the year due to the use of coal - fired power. After the anti - involution, the profit is acceptable. Against the background of the planned production cut in the southwest, large factories in Xinjiang may have the expectation of further increasing production, which makes the market worried that the supply is unlikely to decline significantly [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The industrial silicon futures rose and then fell today. The main 2511 contract formed a doji pattern with long upper and lower shadows. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly. Both the long and short sides continued to wait and see. From the daily chart, the futures price formed a doji pattern with long upper and lower shadows below the 50 - day moving average. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly in the future [7]. 4.3 Market Outlook - The industry is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but inventory depletion has slowed down, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. The fundamentals have become looser. Given the different supply changes in the two major production areas and the uncertain demand for polysilicon, there is no clear one - way driving force in the market, and the futures price may fluctuate around the cost line [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ying Sheng Science (00209), is expected to report a loss of approximately HKD 38 million for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025, which is an increase from a loss of about HKD 27 million in the same period last year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's stock was deposited into Hope Securities with a market value of HKD 45.451 million, representing 41.37% of the total [1] - The anticipated loss for the current reporting period is attributed to two main factors: (i) the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S. on China, leading to a decrease in average product orders and gross profit compared to the previous year, and (ii) rising minimum wage and social insurance costs in mainland China [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Ying Sheng Science (00209) is facing an expected loss of approximately HKD 38 million for the reporting period ending June 30, 2025, which is an increase from a loss of about HKD 27 million in the same period last year [1] - The increase in losses is attributed to two main factors: (i) the impact of increased tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China, leading to a decrease in average product orders and gross profit compared to the previous year, resulting in reduced sales and gross profit contributions [1] - Additionally, the rise in minimum wage and social insurance costs in mainland China has further contributed to the company's financial challenges [1] Group 2 - On August 22, shareholders of Ying Sheng Science deposited shares into Hope Securities, with a market value of HKD 10.318 million, representing 9.95% of the total [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ying Sheng Science, is facing an increased loss in the upcoming reporting period due to external economic pressures and rising operational costs [1] Financial Performance - Ying Sheng Science anticipates a loss of approximately HKD 38 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a loss of about HKD 27 million in the same period last year [1] - The expected loss represents a significant increase in financial distress for the company [1] Factors Contributing to Loss - The widening loss is primarily attributed to two factors: 1. Increased tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese goods, leading to a decrease in average product orders and gross margins compared to the previous year [1] 2. Rising minimum wage and social insurance costs in mainland China, which have further impacted profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - Baide International (02668) is expected to report a significant increase in losses for the first half of the year, projecting a loss attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 110 million to HKD 130 million, compared to a loss of HKD 36.8 million in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a loss of HKD 110 million to HKD 130 million for the first half of the year, a substantial increase from the previous year's loss of HKD 36.8 million [1] - The increase in losses is attributed to several factors, including significant operational cost increases following the acquisition of iron ore mining and processing operations [1] Operational Challenges - The operational costs have risen due to direct costs, operational expenses, and administrative expenses associated with the new mining business [1] - The mining operations are maintaining approximately HKD 405 million in bank loans, which has led to increased financial costs for the group [1] - There has also been an increase in the fair value loss of investment properties [1] Business Segments - Baide International primarily engages in the trading of non-ferrous metals and construction materials, with five main business segments: 1. Supply chain services for non-ferrous metals and construction materials 2. Hotel management and catering services 3. Equipment leasing 4. Property investment, focusing on retail shop leasing 5. Securities investment in equity [1]