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高频数据扫描:居民贷款再减速、长债利率却上行
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic household RMB loans dropped to 2.65%, and the growth rate of household medium - and long - term loans also fell to 3.43%. From January to July, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to 1.60%, about 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June. The long - term Treasury bond yield continued to rise, which may reflect the market's expectation of more real - estate support policies [2][10]. - The PPI in the US in July exceeded expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3% (the highest level since February this year) and a month - on - month increase of 0.9% (the largest increase since June 2022). The follow - up pressure transmission needs attention. The Fed's scenario of more than 2 interest rate cuts this year still requires the decline of inflation data as support [2][12]. - The year - on - year decline of the production material price index continued to narrow. From August 11th to 15th, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.17% month - on - month and 25.69% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 7.22% month - on - month and decreased by 26.99% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline of the production material price index narrowed to 5.29% [2]. - From August 1st to 14th, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 181,000 square meters, while in August 2024, it was about 232,000 square meters per day [2]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - In July, the growth of domestic household loans and fixed - asset investment slowed down. The long - term Treasury bond yield should have faced downward pressure but continued to rise, which may reflect the market's expectation of real - estate support policies. The new - issued mortgage rate in the second quarter decreased again, and the adjusted new - issued mortgage rate after tax and capital cost continued to decline, but the trend slowed down [2][10][11]. - The PPI in the US in July exceeded expectations. If the upstream price - increase pressure can be transmitted to consumer prices, it may form re - inflation pressure; otherwise, it may affect corporate inventory investment [2][12]. - Various high - frequency data showed different trends. For example, food prices, consumer goods prices, energy prices, and real - estate transaction data all had their own changes in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons [15][17]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple high - frequency data were compared with important macroeconomic indicators, such as the comparison between the year - on - year change of LME copper spot settlement price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value and PPI, and the comparison between the year - on - year change of crude steel daily output and the year - on - year change of industrial added value [17][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Some important high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe were presented, including the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied interest - rate hike/cut prospects of the US Federal Funds Futures and the ECB's overnight index swaps [92][94][103]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data were analyzed, with indicators such as the monthly average of crude steel daily output and the production material price index showing their respective seasonal changes [105]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were presented [160].