Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak. Although the calcium carbide price has rebounded slightly, it is still in a weak range, lacking valuation drive. The trends within the black building materials sector are divergent. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct intraday short - term trading, with the V2601 contract range reference at 5050 - 5300 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Side - **Capacity and Output**: The effective PVC capacity has reached 2.852 billion tons. Last week, the PVC output was 475,900 tons, a 5.22% increase from the previous week and a 9.63% increase year - on - year. The calcium carbide method's effective capacity is 2.033 billion tons, accounting for about 71.3%, with a weekly output of 336,100 tons (up 3.54% week - on - week and 0.30% year - on - year). The ethylene method's effective capacity is 767 million tons, accounting for about 28.7%, with a weekly output of 139,800 tons (up 9.48% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year) [19][22][25]. - **开工率**: Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 4.73 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively high level. The calcium carbide method's operating rate was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year. The ethylene method's operating rate was 81.49%, up 2.50 percentage points week - on - week and 15.73 percentage points year - on - year [28][30]. - **Imports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 124,300 tons, a 0.51% increase year - on - year. The cumulative imports of plastics and their products were 9.8782 billion tons, a 2.97% decrease year - on - year [33]. 3.2 Demand - Side - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.0172 billion tons, a 3.03% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC sales - to - production ratio was 175%, a 14 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week but a 46 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [38]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The comprehensive operating rate of downstream products increased slightly but remained the weakest in the same period. The operating rate of mainstream pipes continued to decline, while those of profiles and films remained stable. Weak real - estate conditions have dragged down demand, resulting in insufficient orders for downstream enterprises and low inventory - building willingness [41]. - **Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC exports were 1.9605 billion tons, a significant 50.26% increase year - on - year, but there was a significant month - on - month decline in June. The cumulative exports of PVC flooring materials were 2.09 million tons, a 11.14% decrease year - on - year [47][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 77,660 tons last week, a 7.50% increase week - on - week and a 17.48% decrease year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 337,200 tons, a 2.35% decrease week - on - week and a 12.66% increase year - on - year. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [54][56]. 3.4 Valuation - **Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke remained stable last week, lower than the same period last year. The price of calcium carbide increased significantly week - on - week, with the mainstream price in Wuhai at 2,350 yuan/ton. The prices of ethylene and vinyl chloride remained stable week - on - week and were lower than the same period last year. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly week - on - week but was slightly higher year - on - year, while the price of liquid chlorine rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [60][63][66]. - **Profit**: The loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - method PVC widened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The loss of the ethylene method also widened slightly week - on - week and was at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [69][73]. 3.5 Futures Market - **Contract Spreads**: Last week, the 1 - 5 spread of PVC weakened, remaining stable year - on - year; the 5 - 9 spread fluctuated, lower than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread had a narrow - range fluctuation, higher than the same period last year. The basis of the main contract weakened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, indicating that expectations are stronger than reality [12][15].

Industry Overview - As of June 26, the average profit margin for calcium carbide method PVC production enterprises was -504 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton month-on-month; the average profit margin for ethylene method PVC production enterprises was 693 CNY/ton, down 53 CNY/ton month-on-month [1] - On June 30, the PVC market in Hangzhou showed a subdued atmosphere, with spot prices fluctuating slightly; prices for calcium carbide method PVC ranged from 4780 to 4880 CNY/ton, while ethylene method prices were around 4920 to 4950 CNY/ton [1] - The 28th ICIS and Resource Wise World Chlor-Alkali Conference highlighted that various factors are suppressing PVC prices, pushing many PVC producers, especially in the U.S., to unsustainable profit margins [1] Institutional Insights - Guangzhou Futures noted that PVC is facing supply pressure due to the end of maintenance and the large-scale production of nearly 2 million tons of new capacity; however, the potential delay of India's PVC import BIS policy may benefit future exports [2] - Short-term speculative stockpiling demand is increasing due to low prices, coupled with stable costs from calcium carbide, leading to a slight upward price trend for PVC [2] - Wuzhou Futures indicated that profit pressures for enterprises are rising, with high production levels despite increased maintenance; expectations of new production units coming online and weak downstream demand contribute to a bearish outlook [3] - The anticipated anti-dumping measures in India may lead to a slowdown in exports, further pressuring the basic supply-demand dynamics [3]

PVC月报： 基本面预期偏弱，弱势寻底 | 能源化工团队 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郭建锋 | | F03126846 | | | 何 | 慧 | Z0011420 | | | 郭艳鹏 | | Z0021323 | | | 李 | 倩 | F03134406 | 时间：2025/5/30 | 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 基本面预期偏弱，弱势寻底 【下月展望】 基本面预期偏弱，弱势寻底。虽然近期社库去化速度尚可，基本面边际改善，绝对价格低估值，继续下探空间 有限。但在高开工弱内需的背景下，基本面依旧压力重重：1、青岛海湾、嘉化能源、万华福建合计90万吨新 装置计划在上半年投产。从检修计划看，6月仅万华、齐鲁等合计241万装置存检修计划，检修力度不足，供给 端依旧面临存量与增量的双重压力。2、内需地产价格尚未止跌，商品房高频成交数据同比低位，且雨季终端 施工不利，管材、型材需求偏弱。6月24日BIS认证临近，根据前两轮经验，认证到期当月出口偏承压。3、电 力是氯碱企业最大成本，由于煤炭端持续下跌，叠加联产产品烧碱价格整体坚挺，企业动 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shock downward" rating for the PVC industry, suggesting a strategy of "selling high" [1]. 2. Core View - The PVC market is under pressure due to factors such as a decline in upstream calcium carbide prices, a decrease in PVC operating rates, weak downstream demand, export - related policies, and high inventory levels. With the digestion of macro - sentiment and an increase in downstream wait - and - see attitudes, PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is to sell high. Upstream calcium carbide prices in the mainstream areas dropped by 25 - 50 yuan/ton and then stabilized. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 76.19%, remaining at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. After the May Day holiday, downstream PVC operating rates recovered but were still low compared to previous years, with cautious procurement. Indian anti - dumping policies and the upcoming rainy season in India are unfavorable for PVC exports. Social inventory continued to decline last week but remained high. Real estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to April but was still negative year - on - year, and the decline in new construction and completion areas was significant. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period over the years. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces significant pressure [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PVC2509 contract increased in positions and oscillated downward, with a low of 4743 yuan/ton, a high of 4798 yuan/ton, and a final close of 4758 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, a decline of 1.02%. The open interest increased by 24,833 lots to 1,043,359 lots [2]. - **Basis**: On May 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2509 contract was 4758 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 108 yuan/ton, strengthening by 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Yihua and other plants were shut down for maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 76.19%, remaining at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, in 2024, Zhejiang Zhengyang's 300,000 - ton/year production capacity was fully put into production in April, Shaanxi Jintai's 600,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in two phases (300,000 tons/year in June and the remaining 300,000 tons/year in September), and Xinpu Chemical's 250,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in late December. Another 250,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in February 2025. Attention should be paid to the progress of Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 - ton/year production capacity expected to be put into production around June - July 2025 [4]. - **Demand**: Real estate data showed slight improvement but was still negative year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The sales area of commercial housing was 282.62 million square meters, a decrease of 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume was 270.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% year - on - year. The new construction area of houses was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8% year - on - year, and the completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% year - on - year. As of the week of May 25, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 9.81% week - on - week but was still at a low level in the same period over the years. The impact of real estate favorable policies on commercial housing sales needs to be observed [1][5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 22, PVC social inventory decreased by 2.84% week - on - week to 623,300 tons, 29.49% lower than the same period last year. Although the inventory continued to decline, it remained high [6].

Market Overview - As of April 24, PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% month-on-month to 687,700 tons, and decreased by 20.77% year-on-year [1] - On April 28, the PVC market in Hangzhou stabilized, with slight fluctuations in spot prices; new goods prices are relatively high, with various pricing ranges reported [1] Production and Demand - The overall PVC operating rate is at 78.6%, up 1.3% week-on-week; the calcium carbide method is at 78.6% (down 0.7%), while the ethylene method is at 78.6% (up 6.5%) [1] - The production volume for the week is 450,000 tons, remaining stable month-on-month, with seasonal demand expected to improve [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - The industry is currently in a destocking mode due to recent export deliveries and concentrated maintenance on the supply side [3] - There are plans for new installations to come online in May and June, which may exert supply pressure [3] Price Trends - The cost side is supported by declining calcium carbide prices, leading to a downward shift in futures prices; however, speculative demand at low prices is not expected to drive significant rebounds [2] - Current futures contract range is projected between 4,900 and 5,250 [2] Inventory and Profitability - PVC social and factory inventories have decreased by 6%, indicating a significant destocking trend [2] - The profitability of integrated caustic soda/PVC enterprises remains largely unchanged, with weak domestic demand impacting price stability [3]