Report Overview - The report, "PVC Daily: Oscillating Upward," is released by Guantong Futures on January 30, 2026, providing an analysis of the PVC market [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of oscillating upward, but due to factors such as high inventory and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to observe the market cautiously [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased slightly by 0.19 percentage points to 78.93%, at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has decreased by 0.11 percentage points, and the downstream's willingness to stock up is low [1]. - Affected by the cancellation of export tax - rebates, there is a rush to export, and PVC export orders have increased significantly. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing. Due to the cold wave in the US, domestic export orders continue to increase slightly [1]. - Social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level, with significant inventory pressure. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the improvement of the real - estate market still takes time [1]. - The sentiment in the chemical sector is boosted, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure. Some production enterprises' operating expectations are decreasing, but the current production decline is limited [1]. - January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. Near the Spring Festival, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the PVC market fluctuates greatly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and oscillated upward, with a closing price of 5063 yuan/ton, a gain of 3.41%. The trading volume increased by 30,557 lots to 1,046,450 lots [2]. - On January 30, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4785 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5063 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 278 yuan/ton, weakening by 68 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by devices such as Yibin Tianyuan and Xinjiang Tianye, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.19 percentage points to 78.93%. New production capacities of several enterprises were put into production or trial - produced in 2025 [4]. - On the demand side, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. In 2025 from January to December, real - estate development investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all showed significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of January 25, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, at a low level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 29, PVC social inventory increased by 2.45% month - on - month to 1.2064 million tons, 60.54% higher than the same period last year [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC prices are oscillating upward, but the upward momentum is currently insufficient due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [1] - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and its improvement will take time, which has a negative impact on PVC demand [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased by 0.95 percentage points, but the order volume is poor, and the willingness to stock up is low [1] - There was a rush to export in the market due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, and the export orders increased significantly last week. However, as the export price rises, the trading resistance increases [1] - The social inventory continued to increase, remaining at a high level with significant inventory pressure. The chemical sector sentiment improved, while the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali was under pressure, and some producers' operating expectations declined, but the current production decline is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,833 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,926 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,921 yuan/ton, up 2.82%. The position volume increased by 3,467 lots to 1,069,269 lots [2] - On January 23rd, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,635 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,921 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 286 yuan/ton, weakening by 17 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by companies such as Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%. New production capacities from several companies, including Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua, were put into production in the second half of 2025, and Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real - estate market is in the adjustment phase. In 2025 from January to December, real - estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. Various indicators such as sales area, new construction area, and completion area showed significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of January 18th, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% month - on - month but was still at the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% month - on - month to 1.1775 million tons, 57.01% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remained high [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to experience a sideways downward trend, with the 03 - 05 contracts expected to show a relatively strong sideways movement under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points week - on - week, with poor orders for downstream products and low willingness to stock up actively. Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, there was a rush to export, and last week's PVC export orders increased significantly to a recent high. However, as export prices rose, the resistance to transactions increased. The social inventory continued to increase and remained high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real estate market still takes time. The macro - sentiment has subsided, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have decreased, but the current production decline is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and moved downward in a sideways manner, with a minimum price of 4,708 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,807 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,743 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.33%. The position volume increased by 34,620 lots to 1,071,654 lots [2] Basis - On January 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region fell to 4,530 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,743 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 213 yuan/ton, strengthening by 14 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua plant was in trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion have further decreased. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area of commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the sales area of residential housing decreased by 9.2%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 13.0%. The new construction area of housing was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new construction area of residential housing was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the completion area of residential housing was 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of January 18, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% week - on - week, at the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, a 48.60% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remained high [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and fluctuating trend in the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% on a month - on - month basis, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points due to winter, with poor downstream product orders and low willingness to stock up actively [1] - Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, there was a rush to export in the market last week, with a significant increase in PVC export orders to a recent high. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing [1] - The social inventory continued to increase last week and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage from January to December 2025, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion [1] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to recover, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years, and it will take time for the real estate to improve. The macro - sentiment has subsided, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have declined, but the current production decline is limited. The PVC operating rate has changed little, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, with limited demand in India [1] - January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, with average purchasing enthusiasm, and the social inventory continues to increase [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,770 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,841 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,807 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.25% and an increase in open interest of 22,859 lots to 1,037,034 lots [2] - On January 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,580 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,807 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 227 yuan/ton, strengthening by 21 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% on a month - on - month basis, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical with 500,000 tons/year, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons/year, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons/year, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons/year, were put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons/year started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. The new housing construction area was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new residential construction area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The housing completion area was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the residential completion area was 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. Overall, it will take time for the real estate to improve [5] - As of the week of January 18, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% on a month - on - month basis, at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5] - As of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% on a month - on - month basis to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remains high [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend for the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax - rebates, despite facing challenges such as high inventory and weak downstream demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased slightly but is still lower than before New Year's Day, and downstream product orders are poor. Export orders decreased compared to before New Year's Day, and the Indian market has limited demand. Social inventory continued to increase and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and although the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded, it is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is positive, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,835 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,925 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,868 yuan/ton, down 0.23% with an increase of 13,981 lots in open interest to 1,042,075 lots [2] Basis - On January 15, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,580 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,888 yuan/ton. The basis was - 288 yuan/ton, weakening by 5 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by plants such as Shaanxi Jintai and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), have been put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%. The sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. New construction area decreased by 20.5%. The area of housing under construction decreased by 9.6%, and the completed area decreased by 18.0%. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and is at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 8, PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and social inventory continued to increase and remains high [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax rebates, despite the current high inventory and weak downstream demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, continuing to rise and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has increased slightly but is still lower than before New Year's Day, with poor orders for downstream products. Export orders decreased last week, and the Indian market has low prices and limited demand. However, there may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when the export tax rebate for domestic PVC will be cancelled. Social inventory continues to increase, and the inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and although the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded, it is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is warm, which boosts the sentiment of the commodity market, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,854 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,935 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,878 yuan/ton, down 0.25% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position decreased by 6,529 lots to 1,028,094 lots [2]. Basis - On January 14, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,605 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,878 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 273 yuan/ton, strengthening by 10 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: Affected by plants such as Shaanxi Jintai and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities of several companies have been put into production or are in trial production [4]. - **Demand Side**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, construction, and completion have further decreased. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 8, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and remained at a high level [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on PVC in the short - term is "oscillatory", with an amplitude of - 5% - 5% [3][89] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is affected by multiple factors. Supply is bearish as the fundamental situation of oversupply persists, with production slightly increasing due to reduced maintenance. Demand is also bearish as downstream demand enters the off - season, and although exports are rising, the overall demand remains weak. Inventory is bearish as social inventory increases. However, profit and valuation are bullish, and the macro - policy is positive, with a warming macro - sentiment leading to a small rebound in the market. In the short - term, PVC has no obvious drivers and is expected to oscillate [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, and the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied. The PVC production capacity utilization rate is 77.23%, with a 0.15% week - on - week decrease and a 3.39% year - on - year decrease. The utilization rate of calcium carbide method is 78.49% (0.75% week - on - week increase, 1.68% year - on - year decrease), and that of ethylene method is 74.28% (2.25% week - on - week decrease, 7.64% year - on - year decrease) [3] - **Demand**: Bearish. Downstream demand is in the off - season, with a decline in downstream start - up rates. The start - up rate of PVC pipe sample enterprises is 37.60% (0.20% week - on - week increase, 1.04% year - on - year increase), and that of PVC profile enterprises has a 0.74% week - on - week decrease. The export volume in October 2025 is 31.21 tons, with a single - month export volume decreasing by 9.91% month - on - month and increasing by 34.28% year - on - year, and a cumulative increase of 48.88% year - to - date [3] - **Inventory**: Bearish. The PVC social inventory has a 0.43% week - on - week increase to 106.11 tons, with a 31.92% year - on - year increase. The factory - warehouse inventory of PVC producers can be produced for 5.1 days, with a 3.77% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Basis**: Neutral. The basis has strengthened, currently at - 612 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: Bullish. The profits of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC have increased week - on - week. As of December 26, the average gross profit of calcium carbide method PVC producers is - 760 yuan/ton (223 yuan/ton increase week - on - week), and that of ethylene method PVC producers is - 336 yuan/ton (134 yuan/ton increase week - on - week) [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The price is at a historical low, and the valuation is low [3] - **Macro - policy**: Bullish. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the market has a small rebound [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillatory. In the short - term, PVC has no obvious drivers and is expected to oscillate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, there is currently no strategy [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Market Review**: The PVC powder market oscillated weakly during the week and rebounded strongly on Friday night. On the supply side, there are no new enterprises entering maintenance, but some enterprises maintain a low start - up rate due to cost pressure and environmental protection control. After the end of maintenance at some enterprises, production is expected to increase slightly, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic downstream start - up rate continues to decline, with weak demand for hard products and a decline in the start - up rate of some soft products due to the rise in other raw material prices. In terms of exports, foreign trade exports mainly maintain a wait - and - see attitude. The PVC futures oscillated strongly during the week, with a positive macro - environment and less new global PVC production capacity in 2026, leading to an optimistic future expectation [7] - **Price Difference on the Market**: The price difference has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production in Main Producing Regions**: After the end of maintenance, the production in the northwest region has rebounded [36] - **Exports**: It is the seasonal off - season, and exports have slowed down. There is still room for export profits, but due to weak foreign demand and low - price competition, the room for volume expansion is limited [81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly to 79.43%, still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream operating rate declined slightly, and orders for downstream products were poor. In terms of exports, PVC exchanged price for volume, and last week's export orders rebounded, but the Indian market price was also falling, and Indian demand was limited. Last week, social inventory increased slightly and remained high, with significant inventory pressure. In 2025 from January to November, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with large year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded month-on-month but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The real estate market needed time to improve. New production capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua was newly put into production. The rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosted market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor-alkali decreased, the operating expectations of some production enterprises declined, but the production decline was limited, and the futures warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in December generally decreased, and the Indian market price was also falling, with limited Indian demand. December was the traditional off-season for domestic PVC demand, and the recent upward space for PVC was limited [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43%, still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream operating rate declined slightly, and orders for downstream products were poor. In terms of exports, PVC exchanged price for volume, and last week's export orders rebounded, but the Indian market price was also falling, and Indian demand was limited. Last week, social inventory increased slightly and remained high, with significant inventory pressure. In 2025 from January to November, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with large year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded month-on-month but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The real estate market needed time to improve. New production capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua was newly put into production. The rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosted market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor-alkali decreased, the operating expectations of some production enterprises declined, but the production decline was limited, and the futures warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in December generally decreased, and the Indian market price was also falling, with limited Indian demand. December was the traditional off-season for domestic PVC demand, and the recent upward space for PVC was limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The PVC2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,571 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,675 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,669 yuan/ton, below the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 1.99%. The position increased by 100,545 lots to 849,431 lots [2] Basis - On December 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method PVC in East China rose to 4,395 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,669 yuan/ton. The current basis was -274 yuan/ton, weakening by 35 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by devices such as Ningbo Zhenyang and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43%, continuing to decline slightly and remaining at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons, and Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons were all put into production in the second half of the year [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with large year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, construction, and completion. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; among which, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2%. From January to November, the new construction area of housing was 534.57 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%; among which, the new construction area of residential housing was 391.89 million square meters, a decrease of 19.9%. From January to November, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. From January to November, the completion area of housing was 394.54 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%; among which, the completion area of residential housing was 281.05 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. The overall real estate market needed time to improve. As of the week of December 14, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded by 13.80% month-on-month but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies could boost the sales of commercial housing [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 11, the social inventory of PVC increased by 0.03% month-on-month to 1.0593 million tons, a 27.63% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and remained high (Longzhong increased the social warehousing capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market shows an upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to factors such as high inventory, low downstream demand, and price decline of related products [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and is at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined and is at a low level. India's cancellation of the BIS policy on PVC eases export concerns, but the price of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, in December has generally dropped by 30 - 60 dollars/ton. The social inventory has slightly increased and is still high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities have been put into operation. Although the government's research on price competition gives a certain boost to bulk commodities, the upward space of PVC is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with the lowest price of 4525 yuan/ton, the highest price of 4562 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4549 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.07% and a decrease in the position volume of 73,842 lots to 1,118,577 lots [2]. - In terms of the basis, on November 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4445 yuan/ton, the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4489 yuan/ton, and the current basis was - 72 yuan/ton, weakening by 28 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The operating rates of devices such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai have increased. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation or are in low - load operation [1][4]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area, sales amount, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all showed year - on - year declines. As of the week of November 23, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.56% month - on - month but was still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 27, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% month - on - month to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory was still high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, PVC is expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as the end of production enterprise maintenance, high - level futures warehouse receipts, limited boost from India's policy cancellation, price drops in Formosa Plastics' December quotes, and the decline of coking coal futures prices suppressing market sentiment [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased slightly by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate continues to decline slightly, still at a low level. India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about China's PVC exports to India, and anti - dumping duties are likely to be cancelled. Last week's export orders increased month - on - month. However, Formosa Plastics' December quotes generally dropped by 30 - 60 US dollars/ton. Last week, social inventory increased slightly and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment phase, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year - on - year growth rates. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased month - on - month but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The improvement of the real estate industry still takes time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. There are new production capacities, and the PVC industry lacks actual policy implementation [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4473 yuan/ton, the highest was 4520 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4517 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.71%. The position volume decreased by 35,230 lots to 1,192,419 lots [2] Basis - On November 27, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4445 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4489 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 72 yuan/ton, weakening by 28 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: After the maintenance of devices such as Shandong Xinfa ended, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. There are new production capacities, such as Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line that has been in mass production since August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production line that was put into operation in early September and is currently approaching full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang's and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year production lines operating at low loads after trial runs [4] - Demand side: The real estate industry is still in the adjustment phase, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year - on - year growth rates. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The commercial housing sales area was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the residential sales area decreased by 7.0%. The commercial housing sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 9.4%. The new construction area of houses was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%; the new construction area of residential houses was 359.52 million square meters, a decrease of 19.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completion area of houses was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%; the completion area of residential houses was 248.66 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The overall improvement of the real estate industry still needs time. As of the week of November 23, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.56% month - on - month but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of November 20, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 1.0326 million tons, a 23.47% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and is still at a high level [6]