投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪好转，盘面小幅反弹 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-29 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 02 PART TWO 期货及现货行情回顾 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪好转，盘面小幅反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在77.23%环比减少0.15%，同比减少3.39%；其中电石法在78.49%环比增加0.75%，同比减少1.68%，乙烯法在74.28%环比减少2.25%，同比减少7.64%。 | | | | （1）下游需求进入淡季，下游开工下滑。（2）国内PVC管材样本企 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年12月16日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下调100元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.46个百分点至79.43%， PVC开工率继续小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有下降，下游制品订单不佳。 出口方面，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单有所回升，但印度市场价格也在下跌，印度需求有限。上周 社会库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投 资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。 30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新 增产能上，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化新近投产。焦煤等大宗商品反弹提振市场 情绪，氯碱综合毛利下降，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位，中 国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌，印度市场价格也在下跌，印度需求有限。12月是国内PVC传统需求 淡季，近期PVC上行空间有限。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PVC2605合约增仓震荡上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market shows an upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to factors such as high inventory, low downstream demand, and price decline of related products [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and is at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined and is at a low level. India's cancellation of the BIS policy on PVC eases export concerns, but the price of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, in December has generally dropped by 30 - 60 dollars/ton. The social inventory has slightly increased and is still high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities have been put into operation. Although the government's research on price competition gives a certain boost to bulk commodities, the upward space of PVC is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with the lowest price of 4525 yuan/ton, the highest price of 4562 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4549 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.07% and a decrease in the position volume of 73,842 lots to 1,118,577 lots [2]. - In terms of the basis, on November 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4445 yuan/ton, the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4489 yuan/ton, and the current basis was - 72 yuan/ton, weakening by 28 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The operating rates of devices such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai have increased. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation or are in low - load operation [1][4]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area, sales amount, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all showed year - on - year declines. As of the week of November 23, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.56% month - on - month but was still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 27, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% month - on - month to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory was still high [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月27日 【行情分析】 PVC2601合约减仓震荡运行，最低价4473元/吨，最高价4520元/吨，最终收盘于4517元/吨， 在20日均线下方，涨幅0.71%，持仓量减少35230手至1192419手。 基差方面： 11月27日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价维持在4445元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4489元/ 吨，目前基差在-72元/吨，走弱28元/吨，基差处于中性偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度 反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍 下跌30-60美元/吨。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月26日 【行情分析】 PVC2601合约减仓震荡运行，最低价4466元/吨，最高价4501元/吨，最终收盘于4489元/吨， 在20日均线下方，跌幅0.42%，持仓量减少33859手至1227649手。 基差方面： 11月26日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4445元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4489元/ 吨，目前基差在-44元/吨，走弱13元/吨，基差处于中性偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度 反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍 下跌30-60美元/吨。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a low-level fluctuation as the consumption season enters a downturn, with weak fundamentals and no significant driving factors for price increases [1][2]. Supply - The operating rate of PVC production enterprises is at 80.75%, an increase of 2.49% month-on-month and 2.67% year-on-year. The calcium carbide method operates at 81.21%, up 3.79% month-on-month and 2.64% year-on-year, while the ethylene method is at 79.69%, down 0.51% month-on-month but up 3.03% year-on-year [1]. Demand - The operating rate for PVC pipe enterprises is 39.4%, down 6.19% month-on-month but up 4.21% year-on-year. PVC profile enterprises have an operating rate of 37.61%, down 0.58% month-on-month and 3.93% year-on-year. PVC film enterprises maintain an operating rate of 71.79%, unchanged month-on-month and up 5.06% year-on-year [1]. Inventory - Social inventory of PVC has increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons month-on-month, and is up 26.42% year-on-year. In East China, inventory is at 98580 tons, up 1.46% month-on-month and 27.87% year-on-year. In South China, inventory is at 5580 tons, down 4.39% month-on-month but up 5.34% year-on-year [1]. Cost - The cost of PVC produced by the calcium carbide method is 5158 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month-on-month. The cost for the ethylene method is 5264 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. Profit - The gross profit for PVC produced by the calcium carbide method is -769 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton month-on-month. For the ethylene method, the gross profit is -465 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month [2]. Technical Analysis - The V2601 futures contract showed narrow fluctuations with a weekly high of 4702 yuan/ton and a low of 4600 yuan/ton. The Bollinger Bands indicator is expanding, and the futures are trading in a bearish consolidation state with the RSI indicator between 20 and 50 [2]. Conclusion - Overall, the supply remains ample with increased production rates, while demand is weak as the PVC consumption enters a low season. Inventory levels are rising, indicating significant de-stocking pressure. The market is expected to continue low-level fluctuations without clear driving forces for price increases [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report points out that the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [12][13]. - The report expects the overall cost to weaken, with an increase in supply pressure this week and a projected increase in production scheduling next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4603 - 4657 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In October 2025, PVC production was 2128120 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 329250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 147710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream开工率 was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 37.83%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 42%, a month - on - month increase of 0.799 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 71.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 77.69%, a month - on - month increase of 8.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.50%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2239.75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Other Aspects - On November 6th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4620 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 10 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Factory inventory was 337968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 252368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 85600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89% [9]. - The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including various price indicators, spreads, inventory data, and downstream开工率 data [15][16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - The report analyzes the calcium carbide method from multiple aspects, including raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and also examines PVC supply trends, demand trends, inventory, and the ethylene method, as well as provides a monthly supply - demand balance table [27][39][44][56][58][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. - The overall cost of PVC is weakening, with the cost of calcium carbide method weakening and that of ethylene method strengthening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4673 - 4729 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the number of planned overhauls is expected to decrease next week, with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different operating rate changes, and the current demand may remain sluggish [7]. - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2313.25 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - **Basis**: On October 31, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4680 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 21 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [9]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 252,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. Ethylene factory inventory was 85,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%. It is neutral [9]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [9]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [9]. - **Expectation**: The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, and that of the ethylene method is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4673 - 4729 [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including price changes of different contracts, inventory changes, downstream operating rates, profit and cost data of different production methods, and other information [15][16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It shows the basis trend, futures price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium carbide method - related aspects**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [27][30][32]. - **PVC supply trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, production, and overhaul volume of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method [40][42]. - **Demand trend**: It includes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of different PVC products, as well as real - estate and infrastructure - related data [44][46][49]. - **Inventory**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts and factory inventories of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56][57]. - **Ethylene method**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences [58][59]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the monthly data of PVC export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import from September 2024 to October 2025 [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the social inventory has slightly decreased, the maintenance of production enterprises such as Hangjin Technology is about to end, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The supply is relatively high, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, while the export outlook is also uncertain [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region has dropped by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26% and is at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has continued to rise but is still at a low level. India has postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. The quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has been lowered by 30 - 40 dollars/ton in November. The anti - dumping duty on PVC imports from the Chinese mainland in India has been raised by about 50 dollars/ton, weakening the export expectation in the fourth quarter, but the export in September was still good [1]. - From January to September 2025, the real estate industry was still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has declined, remaining near the lowest level in recent years, and the real estate improvement still takes time [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. There are new production capacities coming on stream, such as Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons in August, Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons put into production in early September and approaching full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each running at a low load after trial production [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in a volatile manner with increased positions. The lowest price was 4,687 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,768 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,701 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.80%. The open interest increased by 52,808 lots to 1,214,725 lots [2]. - On October 31, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,660 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,701 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 41 yuan/ton, strengthening by 26 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking Supply - The production of devices such as Inner Mongolia Junzheng and Shandong Xinfa has increased, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. There are new production capacities coming on stream, including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua [4]. Demand - From January to September 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completion area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The overall real - estate improvement still takes time [5]. - As of the week of October 26, after the National Day, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.09% week - on - week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5]. Inventory - As of the week of October 30, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% week - on - week to 1.03 million tons, 25.09% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory has slightly decreased but is still relatively high [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak. Although the calcium carbide price has rebounded slightly, it is still in a weak range, lacking valuation drive. The trends within the black building materials sector are divergent. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct intraday short - term trading, with the V2601 contract range reference at 5050 - 5300 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Side - **Capacity and Output**: The effective PVC capacity has reached 2.852 billion tons. Last week, the PVC output was 475,900 tons, a 5.22% increase from the previous week and a 9.63% increase year - on - year. The calcium carbide method's effective capacity is 2.033 billion tons, accounting for about 71.3%, with a weekly output of 336,100 tons (up 3.54% week - on - week and 0.30% year - on - year). The ethylene method's effective capacity is 767 million tons, accounting for about 28.7%, with a weekly output of 139,800 tons (up 9.48% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year) [19][22][25]. - **开工率**: Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 4.73 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively high level. The calcium carbide method's operating rate was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year. The ethylene method's operating rate was 81.49%, up 2.50 percentage points week - on - week and 15.73 percentage points year - on - year [28][30]. - **Imports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 124,300 tons, a 0.51% increase year - on - year. The cumulative imports of plastics and their products were 9.8782 billion tons, a 2.97% decrease year - on - year [33]. 3.2 Demand - Side - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.0172 billion tons, a 3.03% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC sales - to - production ratio was 175%, a 14 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week but a 46 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [38]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The comprehensive operating rate of downstream products increased slightly but remained the weakest in the same period. The operating rate of mainstream pipes continued to decline, while those of profiles and films remained stable. Weak real - estate conditions have dragged down demand, resulting in insufficient orders for downstream enterprises and low inventory - building willingness [41]. - **Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC exports were 1.9605 billion tons, a significant 50.26% increase year - on - year, but there was a significant month - on - month decline in June. The cumulative exports of PVC flooring materials were 2.09 million tons, a 11.14% decrease year - on - year [47][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 77,660 tons last week, a 7.50% increase week - on - week and a 17.48% decrease year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 337,200 tons, a 2.35% decrease week - on - week and a 12.66% increase year - on - year. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [54][56]. 3.4 Valuation - **Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke remained stable last week, lower than the same period last year. The price of calcium carbide increased significantly week - on - week, with the mainstream price in Wuhai at 2,350 yuan/ton. The prices of ethylene and vinyl chloride remained stable week - on - week and were lower than the same period last year. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly week - on - week but was slightly higher year - on - year, while the price of liquid chlorine rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [60][63][66]. - **Profit**: The loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - method PVC widened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The loss of the ethylene method also widened slightly week - on - week and was at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [69][73]. 3.5 Futures Market - **Contract Spreads**: Last week, the 1 - 5 spread of PVC weakened, remaining stable year - on - year; the 5 - 9 spread fluctuated, lower than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread had a narrow - range fluctuation, higher than the same period last year. The basis of the main contract weakened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, indicating that expectations are stronger than reality [12][15].