Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a low-level fluctuation as the consumption season enters a downturn, with weak fundamentals and no significant driving factors for price increases [1][2]. Supply - The operating rate of PVC production enterprises is at 80.75%, an increase of 2.49% month-on-month and 2.67% year-on-year. The calcium carbide method operates at 81.21%, up 3.79% month-on-month and 2.64% year-on-year, while the ethylene method is at 79.69%, down 0.51% month-on-month but up 3.03% year-on-year [1]. Demand - The operating rate for PVC pipe enterprises is 39.4%, down 6.19% month-on-month but up 4.21% year-on-year. PVC profile enterprises have an operating rate of 37.61%, down 0.58% month-on-month and 3.93% year-on-year. PVC film enterprises maintain an operating rate of 71.79%, unchanged month-on-month and up 5.06% year-on-year [1]. Inventory - Social inventory of PVC has increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons month-on-month, and is up 26.42% year-on-year. In East China, inventory is at 98580 tons, up 1.46% month-on-month and 27.87% year-on-year. In South China, inventory is at 5580 tons, down 4.39% month-on-month but up 5.34% year-on-year [1]. Cost - The cost of PVC produced by the calcium carbide method is 5158 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month-on-month. The cost for the ethylene method is 5264 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. Profit - The gross profit for PVC produced by the calcium carbide method is -769 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton month-on-month. For the ethylene method, the gross profit is -465 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month [2]. Technical Analysis - The V2601 futures contract showed narrow fluctuations with a weekly high of 4702 yuan/ton and a low of 4600 yuan/ton. The Bollinger Bands indicator is expanding, and the futures are trading in a bearish consolidation state with the RSI indicator between 20 and 50 [2]. Conclusion - Overall, the supply remains ample with increased production rates, while demand is weak as the PVC consumption enters a low season. Inventory levels are rising, indicating significant de-stocking pressure. The market is expected to continue low-level fluctuations without clear driving forces for price increases [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report points out that the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [12][13]. - The report expects the overall cost to weaken, with an increase in supply pressure this week and a projected increase in production scheduling next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4603 - 4657 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In October 2025, PVC production was 2128120 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 329250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 147710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream开工率 was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 37.83%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 42%, a month - on - month increase of 0.799 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 71.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 77.69%, a month - on - month increase of 8.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.50%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2239.75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Other Aspects - On November 6th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4620 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 10 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Factory inventory was 337968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 252368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 85600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89% [9]. - The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including various price indicators, spreads, inventory data, and downstream开工率 data [15][16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - The report analyzes the calcium carbide method from multiple aspects, including raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and also examines PVC supply trends, demand trends, inventory, and the ethylene method, as well as provides a monthly supply - demand balance table [27][39][44][56][58][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. - The overall cost of PVC is weakening, with the cost of calcium carbide method weakening and that of ethylene method strengthening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4673 - 4729 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the number of planned overhauls is expected to decrease next week, with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different operating rate changes, and the current demand may remain sluggish [7]. - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2313.25 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - **Basis**: On October 31, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4680 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 21 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [9]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 252,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. Ethylene factory inventory was 85,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%. It is neutral [9]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [9]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [9]. - **Expectation**: The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, and that of the ethylene method is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4673 - 4729 [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including price changes of different contracts, inventory changes, downstream operating rates, profit and cost data of different production methods, and other information [15][16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It shows the basis trend, futures price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium carbide method - related aspects**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [27][30][32]. - **PVC supply trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, production, and overhaul volume of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method [40][42]. - **Demand trend**: It includes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of different PVC products, as well as real - estate and infrastructure - related data [44][46][49]. - **Inventory**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts and factory inventories of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56][57]. - **Ethylene method**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences [58][59]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the monthly data of PVC export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import from September 2024 to October 2025 [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the social inventory has slightly decreased, the maintenance of production enterprises such as Hangjin Technology is about to end, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The supply is relatively high, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, while the export outlook is also uncertain [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region has dropped by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26% and is at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has continued to rise but is still at a low level. India has postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. The quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has been lowered by 30 - 40 dollars/ton in November. The anti - dumping duty on PVC imports from the Chinese mainland in India has been raised by about 50 dollars/ton, weakening the export expectation in the fourth quarter, but the export in September was still good [1]. - From January to September 2025, the real estate industry was still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has declined, remaining near the lowest level in recent years, and the real estate improvement still takes time [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. There are new production capacities coming on stream, such as Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons in August, Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons put into production in early September and approaching full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each running at a low load after trial production [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in a volatile manner with increased positions. The lowest price was 4,687 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,768 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,701 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.80%. The open interest increased by 52,808 lots to 1,214,725 lots [2]. - On October 31, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,660 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,701 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 41 yuan/ton, strengthening by 26 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking Supply - The production of devices such as Inner Mongolia Junzheng and Shandong Xinfa has increased, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. There are new production capacities coming on stream, including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua [4]. Demand - From January to September 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completion area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The overall real - estate improvement still takes time [5]. - As of the week of October 26, after the National Day, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.09% week - on - week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5]. Inventory - As of the week of October 30, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% week - on - week to 1.03 million tons, 25.09% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory has slightly decreased but is still relatively high [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak. Although the calcium carbide price has rebounded slightly, it is still in a weak range, lacking valuation drive. The trends within the black building materials sector are divergent. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct intraday short - term trading, with the V2601 contract range reference at 5050 - 5300 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Side - **Capacity and Output**: The effective PVC capacity has reached 2.852 billion tons. Last week, the PVC output was 475,900 tons, a 5.22% increase from the previous week and a 9.63% increase year - on - year. The calcium carbide method's effective capacity is 2.033 billion tons, accounting for about 71.3%, with a weekly output of 336,100 tons (up 3.54% week - on - week and 0.30% year - on - year). The ethylene method's effective capacity is 767 million tons, accounting for about 28.7%, with a weekly output of 139,800 tons (up 9.48% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year) [19][22][25]. - **开工率**: Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 4.73 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively high level. The calcium carbide method's operating rate was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year. The ethylene method's operating rate was 81.49%, up 2.50 percentage points week - on - week and 15.73 percentage points year - on - year [28][30]. - **Imports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 124,300 tons, a 0.51% increase year - on - year. The cumulative imports of plastics and their products were 9.8782 billion tons, a 2.97% decrease year - on - year [33]. 3.2 Demand - Side - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.0172 billion tons, a 3.03% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC sales - to - production ratio was 175%, a 14 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week but a 46 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [38]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The comprehensive operating rate of downstream products increased slightly but remained the weakest in the same period. The operating rate of mainstream pipes continued to decline, while those of profiles and films remained stable. Weak real - estate conditions have dragged down demand, resulting in insufficient orders for downstream enterprises and low inventory - building willingness [41]. - **Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC exports were 1.9605 billion tons, a significant 50.26% increase year - on - year, but there was a significant month - on - month decline in June. The cumulative exports of PVC flooring materials were 2.09 million tons, a 11.14% decrease year - on - year [47][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 77,660 tons last week, a 7.50% increase week - on - week and a 17.48% decrease year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 337,200 tons, a 2.35% decrease week - on - week and a 12.66% increase year - on - year. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [54][56]. 3.4 Valuation - **Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke remained stable last week, lower than the same period last year. The price of calcium carbide increased significantly week - on - week, with the mainstream price in Wuhai at 2,350 yuan/ton. The prices of ethylene and vinyl chloride remained stable week - on - week and were lower than the same period last year. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly week - on - week but was slightly higher year - on - year, while the price of liquid chlorine rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [60][63][66]. - **Profit**: The loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - method PVC widened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The loss of the ethylene method also widened slightly week - on - week and was at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [69][73]. 3.5 Futures Market - **Contract Spreads**: Last week, the 1 - 5 spread of PVC weakened, remaining stable year - on - year; the 5 - 9 spread fluctuated, lower than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread had a narrow - range fluctuation, higher than the same period last year. The basis of the main contract weakened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, indicating that expectations are stronger than reality [12][15].

Industry Overview - As of June 26, the average profit margin for calcium carbide method PVC production enterprises was -504 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton month-on-month; the average profit margin for ethylene method PVC production enterprises was 693 CNY/ton, down 53 CNY/ton month-on-month [1] - On June 30, the PVC market in Hangzhou showed a subdued atmosphere, with spot prices fluctuating slightly; prices for calcium carbide method PVC ranged from 4780 to 4880 CNY/ton, while ethylene method prices were around 4920 to 4950 CNY/ton [1] - The 28th ICIS and Resource Wise World Chlor-Alkali Conference highlighted that various factors are suppressing PVC prices, pushing many PVC producers, especially in the U.S., to unsustainable profit margins [1] Institutional Insights - Guangzhou Futures noted that PVC is facing supply pressure due to the end of maintenance and the large-scale production of nearly 2 million tons of new capacity; however, the potential delay of India's PVC import BIS policy may benefit future exports [2] - Short-term speculative stockpiling demand is increasing due to low prices, coupled with stable costs from calcium carbide, leading to a slight upward price trend for PVC [2] - Wuzhou Futures indicated that profit pressures for enterprises are rising, with high production levels despite increased maintenance; expectations of new production units coming online and weak downstream demand contribute to a bearish outlook [3] - The anticipated anti-dumping measures in India may lead to a slowdown in exports, further pressuring the basic supply-demand dynamics [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The fundamental outlook for PVC is weak, and the market is in a downward trend seeking a bottom. Although there has been a marginal improvement in the fundamentals with a decent inventory reduction rate recently and the absolute price is at a low - valuation level, there is still significant pressure due to high production rates and weak domestic demand. Without a halt in the decline of the cost side and large - scale production cuts by upstream producers, it is difficult for the market to stage a strong rebound. The previous short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics and device changes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In May, the V2509 contract fluctuated between 4700 and 5057, first falling and then rising, with the center of gravity continuing to move down. On May 15, driven by the expectation of tariff - induced pre - export, the contract reached a monthly high of 5057 but failed to fill the gap after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. Due to weak fundamental expectations and cost collapse, the contract continued to decline after the rebound, and on May 29, it broke through the previous low, reaching 4700, only 6.8% away from the historical low [3]. - The weighted monthly line has seen four consecutive negative candles, and the 09 contract has had eight consecutive negative candles. The absolute price is at the bottom, the basis is relatively strong year - on - year, the 9 - 1 spread is biased towards positive arbitrage, and the term structure maintains a Contango structure. The open interest of the 09 contract has exceeded 1 million lots, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - **Domestic Macroeconomics**: In April, the PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points month - on - month. The profits of manufacturing enterprises have marginally improved, but the PPI has been in negative territory for 31 consecutive months. From January to April, the decline in real estate completion area has widened, the area of commercial housing under construction is weak year - on - year, and the decline in the price index has narrowed [23]. - **Demand**: Terminal real estate data remains weak. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in new construction, construction, completion, and commercial housing sales areas of real estate were - 23.8%, - 9.7%, - 16.9%, and - 2.8% respectively. The decline in new construction and sales areas has narrowed, while the decline in construction and completion areas has widened [33]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance - **Supply**: In the first quarter, Xinpu Chemical added 500,000 tons of new production capacity. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of multiple sets of devices such as those of Qingdao Bay and Wanhua. In June, a total of 900,000 tons of new devices from Qingdao Bay, Jiahua Energy, and Wanhua Fujian are planned to be put into production. The capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase, and the maintenance intensity in June is insufficient, with only a total of 2.41 million tons of devices from Wanhua, Qilu, etc. having maintenance plans [38][41][46]. - **Demand**: **Domestic Demand**: The downstream operating rate is at a low level year - on - year. The real estate price has not stopped falling, the high - frequency transaction data of commercial housing is at a low level year - on - year, and the rainy season is unfavorable for terminal construction, resulting in weak demand for pipes and profiles. **External Demand**: From January to April 2025, the cumulative domestic PVC exports reached 1.34 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54%. However, with the approaching of the BIS certification on June 24, exports may face pressure based on previous experience [50][55]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of the upper and middle reaches continue to decline. The basis has strengthened, and the warehouse receipts have begun to gradually decrease [58][60]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of electricity, the largest cost for chlor - alkali enterprises, has continued to decline due to the continuous fall in the coal market. Coupled with the overall firm price of the co - product caustic soda, the dynamic cost center of enterprises has continued to move down, and the integrated profit has improved compared with last year, resulting in insufficient motivation for unexpected production cuts [4]. 3.4 Future Outlook - The fundamental outlook remains weak, and the market is in a downward trend seeking a bottom. Although the recent inventory reduction rate in the social inventory is decent, the fundamentals have marginally improved, and the absolute price is at a low - valuation level, there is still significant pressure due to high production rates and weak domestic demand. There is no obvious upward driving force in the fundamentals. Without a halt in the decline of the cost side and large - scale production cuts by upstream producers, it is difficult for the market to stage a strong rebound. The previous short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics and device changes. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4600 and 4950 [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shock downward" rating for the PVC industry, suggesting a strategy of "selling high" [1]. 2. Core View - The PVC market is under pressure due to factors such as a decline in upstream calcium carbide prices, a decrease in PVC operating rates, weak downstream demand, export - related policies, and high inventory levels. With the digestion of macro - sentiment and an increase in downstream wait - and - see attitudes, PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is to sell high. Upstream calcium carbide prices in the mainstream areas dropped by 25 - 50 yuan/ton and then stabilized. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 76.19%, remaining at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. After the May Day holiday, downstream PVC operating rates recovered but were still low compared to previous years, with cautious procurement. Indian anti - dumping policies and the upcoming rainy season in India are unfavorable for PVC exports. Social inventory continued to decline last week but remained high. Real estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to April but was still negative year - on - year, and the decline in new construction and completion areas was significant. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period over the years. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces significant pressure [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PVC2509 contract increased in positions and oscillated downward, with a low of 4743 yuan/ton, a high of 4798 yuan/ton, and a final close of 4758 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, a decline of 1.02%. The open interest increased by 24,833 lots to 1,043,359 lots [2]. - **Basis**: On May 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2509 contract was 4758 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 108 yuan/ton, strengthening by 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Yihua and other plants were shut down for maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 76.19%, remaining at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, in 2024, Zhejiang Zhengyang's 300,000 - ton/year production capacity was fully put into production in April, Shaanxi Jintai's 600,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in two phases (300,000 tons/year in June and the remaining 300,000 tons/year in September), and Xinpu Chemical's 250,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in late December. Another 250,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in February 2025. Attention should be paid to the progress of Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 - ton/year production capacity expected to be put into production around June - July 2025 [4]. - **Demand**: Real estate data showed slight improvement but was still negative year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The sales area of commercial housing was 282.62 million square meters, a decrease of 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume was 270.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% year - on - year. The new construction area of houses was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8% year - on - year, and the completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% year - on - year. As of the week of May 25, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 9.81% week - on - week but was still at a low level in the same period over the years. The impact of real estate favorable policies on commercial housing sales needs to be observed [1][5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 22, PVC social inventory decreased by 2.84% week - on - week to 623,300 tons, 29.49% lower than the same period last year. Although the inventory continued to decline, it remained high [6].

Market Overview - As of April 24, PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% month-on-month to 687,700 tons, and decreased by 20.77% year-on-year [1] - On April 28, the PVC market in Hangzhou stabilized, with slight fluctuations in spot prices; new goods prices are relatively high, with various pricing ranges reported [1] Production and Demand - The overall PVC operating rate is at 78.6%, up 1.3% week-on-week; the calcium carbide method is at 78.6% (down 0.7%), while the ethylene method is at 78.6% (up 6.5%) [1] - The production volume for the week is 450,000 tons, remaining stable month-on-month, with seasonal demand expected to improve [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - The industry is currently in a destocking mode due to recent export deliveries and concentrated maintenance on the supply side [3] - There are plans for new installations to come online in May and June, which may exert supply pressure [3] Price Trends - The cost side is supported by declining calcium carbide prices, leading to a downward shift in futures prices; however, speculative demand at low prices is not expected to drive significant rebounds [2] - Current futures contract range is projected between 4,900 and 5,250 [2] Inventory and Profitability - PVC social and factory inventories have decreased by 6%, indicating a significant destocking trend [2] - The profitability of integrated caustic soda/PVC enterprises remains largely unchanged, with weak domestic demand impacting price stability [3]