期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4963元/吨（+15）；华东基差-233元/吨（-15）;华南基差-103元/吨（+15）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4730元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4860元/吨（+30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格685元/吨（-50）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润-58元/吨（+40）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-596元/吨（+102）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利113元/吨（-16）；PVC出口利润16.3美元/吨（+0.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存50.5万吨（+19.3）；PVC社会库存61.5万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率81.18% （+0.40%）；PVC乙烯法开工率78.87%（+5.18%）；PVC开工率80.48%（+1.86%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量80.3万吨（-21.0）。 氯碱日报 | 2026-02-26 烧碱节后累库，现货价格小幅上涨 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2167元/吨（+197）；山东32%液碱基差-201元/吨（-163）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价629元/吨（+ ...

1月9日，财政部、税务总局联合发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，产品清单明确将 PVC粉、未塑化PVC、已塑化PVC纳入调整范围。该政策引发国内短期"抢出口"现象，当前PVC企业出 口订单普遍预售至2月以后，部分企业甚至压缩内贸，转向外贸，托底产量。受船期影响，PVC出口预 计3月上旬走弱，叠加东南亚、南亚雨季因素，4月后出口将进入适应性调整期，低迷状态或持续至7 月。从行业影响看，出口退税取消预计推高国际PVC价格，短期将引发区域贸易重构。但长期看，中国 PVC产业的成本与产能优势显著，该政策将推动出口范围扩大和产品多元化。同时，该政策对国内乙烯 法PVC企业影响有限，河南、山东等地的高成本企业或面临产能出清压力。 从企业运营状况看，当前陕西、宁夏、内蒙古地区PVC企业现金流整体健康，无亏损情况，仅2025年12 月中下旬因PVC、烧碱价格超跌，部分企业短暂出现现金流亏损，且彼时PVC价格低于4000元/吨、液 碱低于2000元/吨的低价成交稀少，企业通过挺价、减少签单等方式应对。调研期间，PVCSG-5价格重 回4500元/吨以上，烧碱价格维持在2100~2300元/吨，行业盈利水平回归合理区 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the cancellation of export VAT rebates on various industries, particularly in the chemical and photovoltaic sectors, which is expected to stimulate short-term export activities and initiate long-term supply-side reforms and concentration in these industries [1] - The New Materials ETF Huaxia (516710) rose by 1.64%, with constituent stocks such as China National Materials and China Jushi hitting the daily limit, and Wanhua Chemical increasing by over 3% [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for 249 products starting from April 1, 2026, affecting over 80 chemical products including methanol, lithium hexafluorophosphate, 1,2-ethanediol, BDO, and PVC [1] Group 2 - The New Materials ETF Huaxia closely tracks the CSI New Materials Theme Index, which selects 50 listed companies involved in advanced steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and inorganic non-metallic materials, reflecting the overall performance of securities in the new materials sector [1] - The new materials content in the index reaches 79.85%, ranking first across all market dimensions [1]

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-06 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存28.8万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存59.3万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率80.37%（+0.39%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.25%（+2.64%）；PVC开工率78.21%（+1.08%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量107.1万吨（+11.1）。 烧碱： PVC社会库存延续累库，下游开工下降 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5052元/吨（-103）；华东基差-202元/吨（+83）;华南基差-182元/吨（+33）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4850元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4870元/吨（-70）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-659元/吨（+86）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利103元/吨（+82）；PVC出口利润-3.6美元/吨（-11.9）。 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1917元/吨（-61）；山东32%液碱基差-76元/吨（+58）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价589元/吨（-1 ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-05 烧碱山东江苏去库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5155元/吨（+84）；华东基差-285元/吨（+6）;华南基差-215元/吨（-14）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4870元/吨（+90）；华南电石法报价4940元/吨（+70）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-744元/吨（+55）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利21元/吨（+70）；PVC出口利润8.3美元/吨（+20.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存29.0万吨（-1.8）；PVC社会库存58.5万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率79.98%（-0.16%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.61%（-2.43%）；PVC开工率77.13%（-0.85%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量96.0万吨（+7.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1978元/吨（+9）；山东32%液碱基差-134元/吨（-9）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价590元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1010元/ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Oscillation; Inter - period - V03 - 05 long at low prices; Inter - variety - None [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - Cautiously bearish; Inter - period - SH03 - 05 short at high prices; Inter - variety - None [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent rush to export has supported the spot. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, further loosening the supply - demand relationship [3] - The caustic soda spot price is weak due to low - price warehouse receipts, and the supply - demand is weak. Shandong's inventory continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to downstream receiving sentiment and fluctuations in downstream liquid chlorine devices [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,743 yuan/ton (- 64); the East China basis is - 243 yuan/ton (+ 24); the South China basis is - 203 yuan/ton (+ 24) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,500 yuan/ton (- 40); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,540 yuan/ton (- 40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+ 0); the calcium carbide price is 2,855 yuan/ton (+ 0); the calcium carbide profit is - 35 yuan/ton (+ 0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 662 yuan/ton (- 29); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 138 yuan/ton (+ 54); the PVC export profit is 0.1 US dollars/ton (- 10.3) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.1 tons (- 1.7); the social PVC inventory is 56.2 tons (+ 1.5); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.66% (+ 0.43%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 75.48% (- 0.21%); the overall PVC operation rate is 79.08% (+ 0.23%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 92.6 tons (+ 1.7) [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Domestic PVC supply is abundant, and the operation rate has rebounded. Fujian Wanhua will enter maintenance this week, and the supply is expected to decline slightly [3] - Demand: Downstream operation rates have decreased, with the profile operation rate dropping, and the pipe and film operation rates remaining flat. There is an expectation of further decline in the future, and downstream enterprises purchase on dips [3] - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly increased and is at a high level compared to the same period [3] - Cost: The upstream chlor - alkali production profit has decreased this week due to the weak spot price of caustic soda, and is at a low level compared to the same period. The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are stable, and their profits are still in the red [3] - Other: PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1,939 yuan/ton (- 21); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 8 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 623 yuan/ton (- 2); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,060 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 926 yuan/ton (- 6); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 481.9 yuan/ton (- 6.3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 575.08 yuan/ton (- 26.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 453.49 yuan/ton (- 50.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 51.21 tons (+ 1.70); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (- 0.18); the caustic soda operation rate is 86.70% (+ 0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.83% (+ 0.09%); the dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.76% (- 1.33%); the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 88.43% (+ 0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Supply: The overall operation rate is at a high level, the price of liquid caustic soda is falling, and chlor - alkali enterprises have a stronger willingness to support the price of liquid chlorine. There are few planned maintenance enterprises [3] - Demand: The downstream receiving sentiment is average. The operation of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The main alumina plants in Shandong have lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda to 615 yuan/ton. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market is pessimistic with insufficient purchasing power. Non - aluminum industries are gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and export orders remain sluggish [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The PVC market is expected to face downward pressure due to the shift in supply - demand expectations, resulting in a weak reality and weak expectation scenario. With the cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC powder from April 1st, far - month exports are likely to decline. Additionally, insufficient upstream production cuts and the off - season for domestic demand have led to continuous inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. Therefore, a bearish approach is recommended until there is an unexpected reduction in supply [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market Review - **Price Movement**: This week, PVC prices were under pressure and declined. After a sharp gap - down opening at 4760 on Monday, it briefly hit the daily limit down at 4576, then rebounded with the sector, reaching a weekly high of 4949 on Tuesday before falling again. It ended at 4652, with an amplitude of 373 points between 4576 - 4949 [3][9]. - **Funding**: As of Friday, the main contract's open interest was 1.02 million lots, at a high level compared to the same period [12]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of Friday, the V05 basis was 223 yuan/ton, strengthening from the previous low. The V5 - 9 spread was 120 yuan/ton. On Monday, affected by export tariff news, the V5 - 9 spread briefly strengthened to - 40 yuan/ton. Considering the short - term front - loading of export demand, a positive spread arbitrage for the V5 - 9 contracts is advisable [15][17]. - **Valuation**: This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 662 yuan/ton, up significantly from the low of - 1102 yuan/ton on December 12th; ethylene - based PVC gross profit was - 138 yuan/ton, up from - 520 yuan/ton on December 12th. As of Thursday, Shandong's chlor - alkali integrated profit was - 839 yuan/ton (at a low level), and Northwest China's was 743 yuan/ton (at a neutral level). Recently, caustic soda spot prices have been falling, and the comprehensive cost of Shandong's chlor - alkali industry has decreased. In January 2026, industrial electricity prices in Western Inner Mongolia decreased to 0.65 yuan/kWh (down 0.02 month - on - month), while in Shandong, it increased to 0.44 yuan/ton (up 0.06 month - on - month) [20][27]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: This week, PVC production was 490,000 tons (down 0.1 from last week), with a capacity utilization rate of 80% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Next week, the operating rate is expected to decline slightly. Only Qinzhou Huayi and Wanhua Fujian have maintenance plans in January [30]. - **Domestic Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. The operating rates of pipes and profiles were weak, while the film operating rate was at the highest level in the same period. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year change in apparent consumption was - 1.0%, with November's apparent consumption at 1.82 million tons (up 2.7% year - on - year). The real estate market is still in an adjustment period, with new construction, completion, and sales areas showing increasing declines in 2025. The real estate transaction area is at a low level, and in November 2025, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline [32][35]. - **External Demand**: Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, FOB ethylene, calcium carbide, and CFR Southeast Asia prices increased by 40, 15, and 20 US dollars/ton respectively this week. Asian prices are strong, but some traders are waiting and watching due to concerns about rising freight costs. From January to November 2025, PVC exports were 3.51 million tons (up 1.12 million tons year - on - year, a cumulative increase of 47%), with 275,000 tons exported in November (up 30% year - on - year). This week, the sample export orders of PVC producers were 62,200 tons, indicating significant front - loading of exports [40][45]. - **Inventory**: As of Thursday, PVC enterprise inventory was 310,000 tons (up 13,000 week - on - week), rising for three consecutive weeks. The small - sample social inventory was 540,000 tons, and the large - sample social inventory was 1.14 million tons, increasing for four consecutive weeks. The upstream and mid - stream inventory was 1.455 million tons (up 13,000 week - on - week, up 460,000 year - on - year), rising for three consecutive weeks. According to seasonal patterns, social inventory is expected to reach 1.18 million tons by the end of January [47][50]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Market Review - **Price and Profit**: The caustic soda market has seen five consecutive weeks of decline. As of Thursday, Shandong's chlor - alkali gross profit was 266 yuan/ton, and the liquid chlorine price was 350 yuan/ton [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, caustic soda production was 850,000 tons (up 4000 week - on - week), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The capacity utilization rate was 87%, at a high level compared to the same period, and is expected to rise to 88% next week. From January to October 2025, caustic soda exports were 3.73 million tons (a cumulative increase of 37% year - on - year). This week, the in - plant inventory of liquid caustic soda was 510,000 tons (up 17,000 week - on - week), rising for three consecutive weeks to the highest level in the same period [61][67]. 4. Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Adopt a bearish approach. Focus on the 4650 - 4950 yuan/ton range for the V2605 contract [5]. - **Hedging**: Since the futures price is higher than the spot price, industrial clients can sell on rallies [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Take advantage of the short - term support for near - month prices due to front - loaded exports and conduct positive spread arbitrage between contracts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing an unusual price increase for solar modules during the typically low-demand first quarter, driven by recent policy changes and market dynamics. Group 1: Price Trends - Recent data from Infolink Consulting indicates that prices for TOPCon and BC solar modules have increased, exceeding 0.8 yuan per watt, with distributed sales prices ranging from 0.67 yuan to 0.8 yuan per watt, averaging 0.72 yuan per watt [1] - Prior to this increase, solar module prices were constrained by intense competition and insufficient end-user demand, remaining low at around 0.6 yuan per watt by mid-2025 [1] Group 2: Export Policy Impact - The recent cancellation of the export tax rebate for solar products has led to a general increase in pricing strategies among solar module manufacturers, with export prices now ranging from 0.09 to 0.13 USD per watt [3] - The cancellation of the export tax rebate, which was previously at 9%, means that exporters will no longer benefit from VAT refunds, resulting in increased costs and a projected reduction in profit margins by 46 to 51 yuan per module for the 210R model [3][4] Group 3: Market Demand Dynamics - The cancellation of the export tax rebate is expected to stimulate demand in overseas markets, prompting manufacturers to ramp up production and potentially clear existing inventory [4] - There is an expectation that customers will rush to purchase modules before the price increase anticipated after April 1, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that could further drive up prices [4] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - While short-term demand is expected to surge due to the tax policy change, the sustainability of this high demand remains uncertain, with forecasts suggesting a potential decline in export volumes by 5% to 10% in the long run [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to see a volatile downward trend in the short - term, but the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to show a relatively strong volatile trend under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream PVC开工率 decreased by 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. Downstream product orders are poor, and the willingness to actively stock up is low. Export orders last week were lower than before New Year's Day, at a general level. The Indian market price is low, and the demand from India is limited. However, there may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when China cancels the export tax rebate for PVC. Social inventories continued to increase last week and are still at a high level, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas is still large. The 30 - city weekly commercial housing transaction area increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is warm, which has boosted the sentiment in the commodity market, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the production expectations of some enterprises have decreased, though the current production decline is limited. The PVC开工率 will change little next week as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan are still under maintenance. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, and downstream buyers are resistant to high prices. With the approaching Spring Festival, procurement enthusiasm is average, and social inventories continue to increase [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2605 contract decreased in an oscillating manner with a position reduction. The lowest price was 4,782 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,886 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,803 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.52%. The position volume decreased by 21,502 lots to 1,020,573 lots [2] - Basis: On January 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,558 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,803 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 253 yuan/ton, strengthening by 35 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by facilities such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC开工率 decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year from Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year from Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of the year. The 300,000 - ton/year production line of Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%, with the residential sales area decreasing by 8.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 11.2%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%, and the new residential construction area decreased by 19.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completed area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%, and the completed residential area decreased by 20.1%. As of the week of January 11, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level [6]

Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive cancellation of export tax rebates has ignited overseas market demand, becoming the main driving force behind the recent increase in photovoltaic (PV) module prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - PV module prices have seen an increase despite the typical seasonal demand slump in the first quarter, with TOPCon and BC module prices rising above 0.8 yuan per watt [1]. - The transaction price range for distributed PV modules has consistently surpassed 0.67 yuan per watt to 0.8 yuan per watt, with an average price of 0.72 yuan per watt [1]. - Prior to this price increase, PV module prices were constrained by intense competition and insufficient end-user demand, remaining low at around 0.6 yuan per watt by mid-2025 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Export Tax Cancellation - The recent cancellation of export tax rebates has led to a general increase in pricing strategies among PV module manufacturers, with current export prices ranging from 0.09 to 0.13 USD per watt [3]. - The cancellation of the 9% VAT export rebate means that PV module exporters will no longer benefit from tax refunds, resulting in increased costs and a projected reduction in export profits by 46 to 51 yuan per unit for the 210R model [3][5]. - Companies are currently in intensive discussions with overseas distributors regarding the new policy, with potential stockpiling by distributors anticipated before price increases [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to stimulate short-term demand in overseas markets, potentially leading to a rapid increase in export volumes before the April 1 deadline [5]. - The expectation of a 9% price increase post-April 1 may drive customers to purchase now, creating a supply-demand imbalance that could further elevate prices and expedite inventory clearance [4]. - However, the sustainability of this high demand in overseas markets remains uncertain in the long term, with forecasts suggesting a potential decline in export volumes by 5% to 10% following the tax cancellation [5].