Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported on financial work since November 2024, focusing on risk prevention and resolution in the financial sector [1] - The PBOC is taking measures to mitigate risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions through mergers, restructuring, and market exits, while enhancing early correction mechanisms [1] - Significant progress has been made in resolving debt risks for financing platforms, with the number of platforms and outstanding operating financial debt decreasing by 71% and 62% respectively from March 2023 to September 2025 [1] Group 2 - The PBOC is supporting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market by implementing policies such as lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates, resulting in an additional loan issuance of 2.2 trillion yuan through a "white list" mechanism [1] - A comprehensive mechanism for preventing and combating illegal financial activities is being established at provincial, municipal, and county levels, maintaining a strict crackdown on illegal fundraising [2] - The PBOC is enhancing financial risk prevention, early warning, and resolution mechanisms by establishing a macro-prudential and financial stability committee, ensuring resource support for risk management [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On September 23, the coke main contract closed at 1,717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.67% on the day. The spot prices of Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port had slight changes. Last week, the coke daily output was basically flat week-on-week, and the iron water daily output increased slightly. With the approaching National Day holiday, the pre - holiday restocking demand supported the spot price. The coke fundamentals had no prominent contradictions, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the futures fluctuated in a range. The future trend depends on new benefits from anti - involution policies [5][34]. - On September 23, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,217.5 points, down 0.94% on the day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port remained flat week - on - week. Last week, the coking coal output increased, and the import volume at the 288 Port reached a high. The demand side's output was basically flat week - on - week. The coking coal's real - world fundamentals had insufficient support, but the pre - National Day restocking expectation and the end - of - month mine production reduction expectation supported the price, driving the main contract to maintain high - level fluctuations [6][35]. Summary by Directory Industry News - On September 22, in the press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan", it was mentioned that the real - estate financial policy was effective. The urban real - estate financing coordination mechanism issued over 7 trillion yuan in loans, supporting the construction and delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [8]. - On September 23, the coking coal price in Jinzhong market rose by 10 yuan/ton, with the medium - sulfur primary coking coal's ex - factory price at 1,260 yuan/ton [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke ex - warehouse price was 1,460 yuan/ton, down 2.67% week - on - week. The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The prices of Australian - produced and Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port remained unchanged week - on - week [5][6][10]. Futures Market - The coke main contract closed at 1,717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.67%, with a trading volume of 25,522 and a position of 44,874, down 425 from the previous trading day. The coking coal main contract closed at 1,217.5 points, down 0.94%, with a trading volume of 1,065,414 and a position of 706,845, down 9,423 from the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including those of independent coking plants, steel mills, and ports, as well as charts on domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw purchases, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operations [14][22][27]. Market Outlook - The coke market has no prominent fundamental contradictions, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the futures fluctuate in a range. The future trend depends on new benefits from anti - involution policies. The coking coal's real - world fundamentals have insufficient support, but the pre - National Day restocking expectation and the end - of - month mine production reduction expectation support the price, driving the main contract to maintain high - level fluctuations [5][6][34][35].

Core Insights - The press conference highlighted significant achievements in the financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in real estate financing policies [1] - The establishment of a city real estate financing coordination mechanism has been a key measure in mitigating real estate risks [2] - The mechanism has facilitated over 7 trillion yuan in loans for "white list" projects, supporting nearly 20 million housing units [1][2] Group 1: Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism - The city real estate financing coordination mechanism was established to address financing challenges for real estate projects, ensuring smooth construction and delivery [2] - The "white list" system identifies eligible projects based on their development status and the financial health of developers, promoting fair financing support [2] - By September 2025, loans for "white list" projects are expected to support nearly 20 million housing units, an increase from 16 million reported in May [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The monetary policy will be guided by macroeconomic conditions, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the future [1] - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures to lower the financial burden on homebuyers, including adjustments to down payment ratios and mortgage rates [3] - The reduction in mortgage rates is projected to save over 300 billion yuan in interest payments annually for more than 50 million households [3] Group 3: Financial Support for Housing Projects - Financial support exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan has been allocated for key housing projects, with rental housing loans growing at an annual rate of 52% [4] - The number of financing platforms has decreased by over 60% since March 2023, indicating a significant reduction in financial debt risks [4] - Foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above 3 trillion USD, contributing to economic stability [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the real estate market in China, highlighting the contrasting opinions on whether to buy property now or wait for potential price drops. It emphasizes the complexity of the housing market, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, financial policies, and demographic changes [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is characterized by significant disparities across different city tiers. As of May 2025, the inventory of new residential properties in 300 key cities reached approximately 420 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of about 20 months. First-tier cities have a healthier de-stocking cycle of 10 months, while third and fourth-tier cities exceed 25 months [4]. - In first-tier and some strong second-tier cities, the market is approaching a balance, with some areas experiencing a shortage of available properties. This contrasts sharply with third-tier cities, where new developments remain unsold for extended periods [4]. Group 2: Financial Environment - Since the second half of 2024, the government has implemented various financial policies to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates. As of July 2025, the average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers has dropped to around 3.8%, the lowest in nearly a decade [5]. - While these policies benefit homebuyers, their sustainability is uncertain, and the growth rate of personal housing loans has shown signs of recovery, indicating potential adjustments in future policies [5]. Group 3: Demographic Trends - China's population has experienced a decline for the first time since 1961, with an estimated decrease of about 800,000 in 2025. The aging population is also a significant factor, with projections indicating that 21% of the population will be 60 years or older by 2025 [6]. - Despite the overall population decline, urbanization continues, with younger populations migrating to first and second-tier cities, maintaining strong housing demand in these areas. The trend of smaller household sizes is also expected to mitigate some negative impacts of population decline on housing demand [6]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The ability to choose properties freely in five years will largely depend on the type of property and the city chosen. High-quality properties in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, especially those in desirable locations, are likely to maintain or even increase in value due to tightening supply [8]. - Conversely, properties in third and fourth-tier cities may face downward price pressure due to ongoing population outflows and excess inventory. The quality of properties will also play a crucial role in their future value, with energy-efficient and well-managed properties being more desirable [8]. Group 5: Decision-Making Strategies - Homebuyers are advised to focus on the fundamental purpose of housing, which is to provide shelter. Those with stable jobs and long-term plans in a city should consider purchasing if their rent approaches or exceeds potential mortgage payments [9]. - Financial prudence is essential, with recommendations to keep the mortgage-to-income ratio below 30% to avoid financial strain. Buyers should also tailor their purchasing strategies based on local market conditions, opting for smaller properties in high-demand areas initially, with plans to upgrade later [10]. - Attention should be given to property value retention factors such as property management quality, community amenities, and transportation accessibility. Diversifying asset allocation beyond real estate is also recommended to mitigate risks [11].