接：11月24日，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员 敦志刚在《金融时报》发表文章指出，全球金融体系正迎来一个深刻变革与重构的历史性时 在这一宏观背景下，深入剖析美联储降息的深层逻辑、全球影响与政策启示，具有重大的理论价值与现实意义。现将全文发布如下： （全文约7600 字 预计阅读时间20分钟) 胶志刚 全球金融体系正迎来一个深刻变革与面 构的历史性时刻。美联储于 2025 年 9 月 18 日宣布下调联邦基金利率, 将联邦基金利率目 标区间从4.25%至4.50%下调25个基点至 4.00%至4.25%,这是美联储2025年以来首次 降息;10 月 29 日,美联储进一步将联邦基金 利率目标区间下调 25 个基点到 3.75%至 4.00%之间,也是自去年9月开启降息周期以 来的第五次降息,本年度累计降幅已达50个 基点,不仅标志着其货币政策周期的重要转 折,更意味着全球货币政策协调机制、资本浩 动格局与金融治理体系将进入新一轮调整与 直塑阶段。这一转变既源于美国国内经济周 期演进与结构变迁的内生要求,也是应对全球 经济增速放缓、通胀动态演变与金融环境变化 的必然选择。正如习近平总书记所指出的"全 球治理体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is transitioning to a new phase that relies more on technological innovation and capital markets, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" being crucial for solidifying foundations and driving comprehensive efforts towards achieving modernization by 2035 [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Market Goals - The total market value of China's capital market is expected to exceed 200 trillion yuan by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," relying on endogenous market growth rather than new stock issuance [1][3][4]. - To align with the economic goals, the capital market's market value should increase to match GDP growth, aiming for a market-to-GDP ratio of 120% to 140% by 2030 [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Functions of Capital Market - The capital market must enhance five strategic functions: supporting technological advancements, deepening financial reforms, promoting market-oriented reforms, boosting domestic demand, and improving social welfare [5][6][7]. - The capital market is essential for supporting the construction of a modern industrial system and narrowing the technology gap with the U.S. in areas like AI [5][6]. Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Spending - A rising stock market can amplify consumer spending through wealth effects, with projections indicating that an increase in market value could lead to additional consumer spending of several trillion yuan annually [8][9]. - Improving social security levels, particularly for rural elderly residents, is crucial for unlocking consumption potential, with proposals to transfer a higher percentage of state-owned equity to social security funds [9]. Group 4: Liquidity and Long-term Market Health - The capital market's health is supported by improved liquidity, with expectations for M1 growth to exceed 8%, which typically indicates a rising stock market [10][11]. - A significant reduction in interest rates is necessary to alleviate financial burdens on households and businesses, encouraging more funds to flow into consumption and investment [11][12]. Group 5: Market Ecosystem for Long-term Investment - A diverse investment ecosystem is needed to attract long-term capital, encouraging participation from various institutional investors while also accommodating speculative and quantitative investment strategies [12].

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in achieving China's economic development goals during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on technology advancement, wealth accumulation, private investment stimulation, consumption enhancement, and social welfare improvement. Group 1: Role of Capital Market in Economic Development - The capital market should support the development of a modern industrial system and technological advancements, with a target of maintaining over 50% annual growth in AI computing power investments during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - A long-term bull market could lead to a rapid increase in residents' property income, potentially allowing the middle-income group to exceed 400 million people, thus becoming a significant reservoir of wealth [1] Group 2: Stimulating Private Investment - A sustained bull market can act as an accelerator for private investment, as higher market valuations increase companies' willingness to invest, contrasting with the low investment levels seen during previous market downturns [2] Group 3: Enhancing Consumption and Domestic Demand - The capital market is expected to contribute to the construction of a unified market and the expansion of domestic demand, with stock market growth leading to increased consumer spending, potentially adding several trillion yuan to consumption by 2030 [2] Group 4: Improving Social Welfare - The capital market's support is essential for enhancing social welfare, with a goal to increase the proportion of social security spending to GDP from under 10% to 15%-20% during the "15th Five-Year Plan," relying on better investment returns from social security funds [2]

Group 1 - The capital market is expected to become a new engine for consumption growth as the real estate sector's driving effect weakens [1][7] - The stock market is being looked at to take over the four major functions previously held by real estate: wealth accumulation, investment promotion, consumption stimulation, and land finance [2][8] - The rise in stock prices enhances corporate financing and investment capabilities, allowing companies to expand R&D and new investments [4][5] Group 2 - Stock market growth can stimulate consumer spending through the wealth effect, as rising stock values increase disposable income expectations [6][7] - The relationship between stock market performance and consumer spending is influenced by the Tobin's Q theory, where a Q value greater than 1 encourages new investments [3][4] - The potential for the stock market to reshape the wealth accumulation model is significant, with projections indicating a possible market capitalization growth to 300 trillion yuan by 2030 [8][9] Group 3 - The transition from real estate to the stock market as a wealth reservoir reflects a broader shift in economic structure and investment channels [8][11] - The stock market's ability to drive investment and consumption is contingent on maintaining a healthy growth trajectory and addressing structural economic challenges [10][11] - The increasing confidence of investors in the stock market is evident, with a notable rise in new accounts opened in July, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [11][12]