中信证券首席经济学家 明明 在演讲中，明明围绕当前中国经济面临的核心矛盾——有效需求不足展开深入分析，指出这一问题的复 杂性决定了其无法通过单一的总量政策简单解决，并分别从消费、资产价格与资本市场、投资等层面进 行了剖析。 在明明看来，在消费层面，以旧换新等补贴政策对拉动耐用品消费发挥了作用，但受产品更新周期限 制，其效应可能递减。因此，政策方向可从"投资于物"转向"投资于人"，如补贴从耐用品转向一些服务 商品，包括一些服务业基础设施投资。另外，在收入补贴方面，他认为今年的生育和学前教育补贴政策 是很好的尝试，并期待在"十五五"期间，这些惠民政策的补贴力度和覆盖范围能进一步扩大。 关于资产价格与资本市场，提升居民财产性收入是关键。明明谈到，房地产市场的见底取决于高库存的 出清速度，这需要货币、财政等多项政策工具协同发力。另外，资本市场今年虽表现良好，但能否形 成"长牛"或"慢牛"，根本上取决于企业盈利的持续改善，而这又有赖于宏观经济增长的复苏速度和质 量。资本市场需从"估值提升"转向"盈利支撑"，通过改革（引导长期资金、平衡投融资功能）实现可持 续"慢牛"，提升居民财产性收入。 在投资与财政层面，他指出当前正 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The macroeconomic data for November shows a clear characteristic of "strong production, weak demand, rising prices, and improved structure" [1][5] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with significant internal structural differentiation; equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 7.7% and 8.4% respectively, leading the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 3.6 percentage points [1][5] - The retail sales of consumer goods only increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a new low for the year, with online retail sales growing by 5.7% but unable to offset the weakness in offline sales [1][6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Investment - The weak consumption is attributed to declining expectations of household income and a rise in "precautionary" savings, with household deposits increasing by over 10 trillion yuan in the first eleven months [6] - There is a significant shift in household assets from savings to investments, with over 25 million new stock accounts opened this year and equity public funds surpassing 500 billion yuan in sales [6][7] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but excluding real estate development, it showed a slight increase of 0.8% [6][7] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Price Trends - In November, the total import and export value increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with exports and imports growing by 5.7% and 1.7% respectively, and a historic trade surplus exceeding 1 trillion USD [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2%, indicating a potential for PPI to turn positive by 2026 [7] - The monetary environment shows a widening gap between M1 and M2, with a notable shift of funds towards equity investments as the one-year fixed deposit rate falls below 1% [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The policy direction for 2026 will focus on "three stabilizations and three expansions," aiming to stabilize employment, enterprises, and expectations while expanding domestic demand, high-end supply, and institutional openness [7] - The current market trend is expected to enhance household financial income, counteract real estate wealth depreciation, and provide financing support for technology innovation enterprises [8]

证监会主席吴清在人民日报发表署名文章《提高资本市场制度的包容性适应性（学习贯彻党的二十届四 中全会精神）》指出，党的二十届四中全会提出，实现人民对美好生活的向往是中国式现代化的出发点 和落脚点。我国有2亿多股票投资者、7亿多基金投资者，资本市场是人民群众分享实体经济发展成果的 重要平台。新"国九条"落地实施以来，资本市场总体保持回稳向好势头，2024年实现投资者现金分红 2.4万亿元，老百姓通过资本市场管理个人财富的意愿和诉求进一步增强。这要求资本市场提供更加丰 富、更高质量的金融产品和服务，逐步拓宽增加居民财产性收入的渠道。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in achieving China's economic development goals during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on technology advancement, wealth accumulation, private investment stimulation, consumption enhancement, and social welfare improvement. Group 1: Role of Capital Market in Economic Development - The capital market should support the development of a modern industrial system and technological advancements, with a target of maintaining over 50% annual growth in AI computing power investments during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - A long-term bull market could lead to a rapid increase in residents' property income, potentially allowing the middle-income group to exceed 400 million people, thus becoming a significant reservoir of wealth [1] Group 2: Stimulating Private Investment - A sustained bull market can act as an accelerator for private investment, as higher market valuations increase companies' willingness to invest, contrasting with the low investment levels seen during previous market downturns [2] Group 3: Enhancing Consumption and Domestic Demand - The capital market is expected to contribute to the construction of a unified market and the expansion of domestic demand, with stock market growth leading to increased consumer spending, potentially adding several trillion yuan to consumption by 2030 [2] Group 4: Improving Social Welfare - The capital market's support is essential for enhancing social welfare, with a goal to increase the proportion of social security spending to GDP from under 10% to 15%-20% during the "15th Five-Year Plan," relying on better investment returns from social security funds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the stock market is crucial for enhancing consumer confidence and increasing household wealth, which in turn supports economic growth [1] Group 1: Stock Market Stability - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued a plan in March to stabilize the stock market, highlighting its importance in broadening residents' income channels and reinforcing consumer confidence [1] - As of October 13, the number of new A-share accounts exceeded 20 million, representing a year-on-year increase of over 50%, which has significantly boosted household wealth [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita consumption expenditure of residents in the first half of the year was 14,309 yuan, reflecting a real growth of 5.3% compared to the same period last year [1] - A stable stock market injects capital into the real economy and enhances consumption through wealth, psychological, and expectation effects, thereby strengthening the internal economic cycle [1]

Group 1: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Historical consumption recovery during bull markets typically lags behind stock market recovery by 2-3 quarters, but shows good sustainability[1] - In the three bull markets since 2000, the recovery of retail sales growth lasted over 20 months in the first two rounds and 7 months in the third round[11] - Consumer confidence index generally improves during bull markets, indicating a wealth effect on consumption[2] Group 2: Impact of Bull Markets on Consumption Categories - Each bull market has different consumption categories that see significant growth; essential goods and dining-related consumption surged in the first round, while communication devices and jewelry saw the largest increases in the second round[3] - Major durable goods like automobiles and entertainment products experienced notable growth in the third round[3] - Three categories consistently showed recovery across all bull markets: home appliances, daily necessities, and grain/oil products[25] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - If consumer stimulus policies are weaker than expected, the recovery in consumption during a bull market may also be weaker than anticipated[32] - Unexpected overseas geopolitical events could negatively impact domestic risk appetite and consumer confidence[32]

Group 1 - Current consumption is the most important driver of economic growth in China, contributing over 50% to GDP growth in the past two years, surpassing the combined contributions of investment and exports [1] - The recent guidance from the central bank and six departments emphasizes enhancing financial services from both supply and demand sides to support consumption [2][3] - The focus is on increasing residents' property income to boost consumption capacity, as raising wage income faces significant challenges due to pressures on private enterprises [3] Group 2 - The capital market plays a crucial role in promoting consumption growth, acting as an accelerator and stabilizer by providing diverse investment channels for residents [3][4] - There has been a significant increase in household savings, with nearly 60 trillion yuan added in the past four years, indicating a need to attract these savings into the capital market [4] - The recent recovery in the capital market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 20% from last year's low, is seen as a key factor in enhancing market confidence and promoting consumption [4][5] Group 3 - The issuance of the recent opinion reflects the central government's determination to expand high-quality consumption growth, which is expected to release consumption potential and boost market sentiment [5] - The ongoing fourth technological revolution, particularly in artificial intelligence, is anticipated to attract investment and enhance market profitability, further stimulating consumption [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and six other departments have issued guidelines to support consumption and enhance financial products tailored to family wealth management needs, aiming to increase residents' property income [1] Group 1: Financial Support for Employment and Consumption - The guidelines emphasize supporting employment growth and boosting consumer confidence [1] - Financial services will be strengthened for private and small enterprises, as well as individual businesses that have strong employment absorption capabilities [1] - The implementation of entrepreneurial guarantee loan policies will be deepened, encouraging local adaptations to relax application conditions and simplify approval processes [1] Group 2: Market Mechanisms and Income Enhancement - The guidelines aim to accelerate the market-oriented allocation of labor, capital, knowledge, and technology, as well as improve financing service mechanisms [1] - There is a focus on increasing disposable income for households [1] - Financial products that meet family wealth management needs will be innovated, and regulations on residents' investment and wealth management activities will be standardized to enhance property income [1]