1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly recover. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near term. The Au2604 contract may oscillate between 1,080 yuan/gram and 1,180 yuan/gram. Silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern as well, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical concerns persist as the US-Iran negotiation location change led to a deadlock, causing concerns in the Middle East that Trump may resort to military action. The US ADP employment data in January was far below expectations, with only 22,000 new jobs added, compared to the expected 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the release schedules for January's non-farm payroll report, job vacancy data, and CPI [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On February 4, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,100.02 yuan/gram and closed at 1,141.70 yuan/gram, a 4.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,113.78 yuan/gram, a 2.45% drop from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 22,000.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 23,511.00 yuan/kilogram, a 9.63% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 943,213 lots, and the open interest was 237,208 lots. The night session closed at 22,955 yuan/kilogram, a 2.36% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 4, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.274%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.727%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On February 4, 2026, in the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 1,858 lots, and the short positions changed by 704 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 607,573 lots, a -39.41% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 6,992 lots, and the short positions changed by 6,131 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,904,707 lots, a 17.58% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,083.38 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,438 tons, a decrease of 109 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On February 4, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -14.35 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 47.66 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 48.56, a -4.79% change from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 56.28, a -1.53% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On February 4, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 69,688 kilograms, a 29.30% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 523,996 kilograms, a -23.65% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The number of initial jobless claims in the US has cooled, and precious metals continue to fluctuate at high levels. The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly strengthen. The gold price is expected to be mainly fluctuating and strengthening in the near term, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern, with the gold-silver ratio expected to continue to narrow [1][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four-week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two-year low. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now and tends to choose the next Fed chairman between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On January 15, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,041.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,035.20 yuan/gram, a change of -0.52% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,035.98 yuan/gram, up 0.08% from the afternoon closing. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 23,488.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.43% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 1,463,056 lots, and the open interest was 344,468 lots. The night session closed at 23,089 yuan/kilogram, up 1.87% from the afternoon closing [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 15, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, a change of +0.043% from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.609%, a decrease of 1.7 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Position and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract, the long position changed by -7,964 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by -890 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 392,878 lots, a change of -2.23% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long position changed by 678 lots, and the short position changed by 2,006 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,117,047 lots, a change of 14.39% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,074.23 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,242 tons, a decrease of 79 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 15, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 1.57 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -750.38 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 45.67, a change of -0.09% from the previous trading day, and the foreign gold-silver ratio was 50.86, a change of -4.76% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 45,450 kilograms, a change of -31.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 657,202 kilograms, a change of -19.09% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 300 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2602 contract's oscillation range may be between 1,020 yuan/gram and 1,045 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2604 contract's oscillation range may be between 22,700 yuan/kilogram and 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] Options - Options are on hold [9]

Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, marking the lowest level since November of the previous year [2][14] - The four-week moving average fell to 205,000, the lowest in two years [2][14] Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump stated that he currently has no plans to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, despite threats from the Justice Department regarding a criminal investigation [2][14] - Trump is considering former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett for the next Fed Chair position [2][14] Futures Market Overview - On January 15, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1,041.00 CNY/gram and closed at 1,035.20 CNY/gram, a change of -0.52% from the previous trading day [3][15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 23,488.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 CNY/kilogram, a change of -0.43% [3][15] Bond Market Monitoring - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, an increase of 0.043% from the previous trading day [4][16] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.609%, a decrease of 1.7 basis points from the previous day [4][16] Trading Volume and Positions - On January 15, 2026, the total trading volume for gold contracts was 392,878, a decrease of 2.23% from the previous day [5][17] - The total trading volume for silver contracts was 3,117,047, an increase of 14.39% from the previous day [5][17] ETF Holdings - Gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,074.23 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 79 tons to 16,242 tons [6][18] Market Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish outlook is suggested, with expected price fluctuations between 1,020 CNY/gram and 1,045 CNY/gram [9][21] - For silver, a cautiously bullish stance is also indicated, with anticipated price movements between 22,700 CNY/kilogram and 24,000 CNY/kilogram [10][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View The Fed maintained the interest rate level unchanged, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path. If neither interest rates nor inflation change significantly, the consolidation period of gold may be extended. Silver generally follows the trend of gold, but in the long term, there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If there is a relaxation of tariff tensions and a slight increase in risk sentiment, silver may benefit and show a stronger trend than gold. However, the silver price may be dragged down by the decline in Comex copper prices, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips [1][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed announced at the FOMC meeting early today that it would maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, but governors Waller and Bowman voted against it and advocated for a rate cut, indicating differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path. Fed Chair Powell avoided giving guidance on a September rate cut at the press conference, stating that the current monetary policy stance is in a favorable position, emphasizing data dependence, and suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary [1]. Futures Market - On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 772.70 yuan/gram and closed at 773.78 yuan/gram, a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session of the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 771.30 yuan/gram and closed at 770.68 yuan/gram, a 0.32% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,193.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,192.00 yuan/kg, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 689,866 lots, and the open interest was 392,370 lots. The night session of the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,145 yuan/kg and closed at 9,090 yuan/kg, a 0.27% decline from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 30, 2025, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed at 4.34%, a change of -0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes was 0.44%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On July 30, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,141 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 607 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 254,236 lots, a change of -7.59% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,144 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,475 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 843,356 lots, a change of 14.14% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Holdings - In the precious metals ETFs, the gold ETF holdings were 955.37 tons yesterday, a decrease of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,149.90 tons, a decrease of 24.02 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage - On July 30, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -9.15 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -719.79 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 84.18, a change of 0.34% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 87.25, a change of -0.34% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On the previous trading day (July 30, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 26,258 kg, a change of -30.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 281,690 kg, a change of -38.98% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,380 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 57,960 kg [7]. Investment Strategies - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position in the range of 750 yuan/gram - 762 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Although the silver price may be dragged down by the decline in Comex copper prices, investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 8,900 yuan/kg - 8,950 yuan/kg [8][9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: On hold [9].