这两天盯着黄金、白银行情的人，大概都被"过山车式波动"震了一下。 黄金冲上5100美元/盎司又迅速跳水，白银更狠，单日跌掉9%。网友调侃："理财不如健身，至少不会心梗。" 但越是这种行情，越要看清背后的力量。 黄金白银之所以剧烈震荡，核心原因很简单：地缘风险推高避险需求，美联储政策不确定性放大情绪，杠杆资金获利了结引发急涨急跌。 与此同时，央行已经连续13个月增持黄金，这说明长期配置价值依旧稳固。 也有人提醒白银波动太大，短期可能下探90美元/盎司。 更关键的是机构在干什么？ 桥水、贝莱德等大机构近期都在调整贵金属仓位，多是防御性增配；COMEX黄金期货未平仓合约出现异动，说明资金在加速对冲；期权市场更直接，大资 金常用"现货囤积 + 期货做空"来锁定利润。 这是一种专业套利方式。 散户最容易忽视的，是主力在合约换月时的价格甩尾，流动性差、波动大，最容易被洗出去。 专家的建议很朴素：不追高、不恐慌，看长期逻辑，黄金白银配置需谨慎。 #黄金，白银大涨又大跌，用不用慌？# 市场分歧也随之拉开： 有人认为贵金属中期逻辑没变，回调反而是上车机会； ...

日期 2026 年 1 月 26 日 类别 贵金属专题报告 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 贵金属市场常见套利策略更新 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观专题-20250306-特朗普 2.0 新 政阶段性回顾：回归保守价值观、 回归丛林法则》 《宏观专题-20250120-特朗普 2.0 与 2025 年宏观市场展望》 专题报告 近期研究报告 《宏观专题-20250918-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析（三）》 《宏观专题-20250821-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(二)》 《宏观专题-20250815-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(一 ...

Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, marking the lowest level since November of the previous year [2][14] - The four-week moving average fell to 205,000, the lowest in two years [2][14] Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump stated that he currently has no plans to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, despite threats from the Justice Department regarding a criminal investigation [2][14] - Trump is considering former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett for the next Fed Chair position [2][14] Futures Market Overview - On January 15, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1,041.00 CNY/gram and closed at 1,035.20 CNY/gram, a change of -0.52% from the previous trading day [3][15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 23,488.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 CNY/kilogram, a change of -0.43% [3][15] Bond Market Monitoring - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, an increase of 0.043% from the previous trading day [4][16] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.609%, a decrease of 1.7 basis points from the previous day [4][16] Trading Volume and Positions - On January 15, 2026, the total trading volume for gold contracts was 392,878, a decrease of 2.23% from the previous day [5][17] - The total trading volume for silver contracts was 3,117,047, an increase of 14.39% from the previous day [5][17] ETF Holdings - Gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,074.23 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 79 tons to 16,242 tons [6][18] Market Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish outlook is suggested, with expected price fluctuations between 1,020 CNY/gram and 1,045 CNY/gram [9][21] - For silver, a cautiously bullish stance is also indicated, with anticipated price movements between 22,700 CNY/kilogram and 24,000 CNY/kilogram [10][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [8] - Options: On hold [9] Report's Core View - The market may price in more-than-expected monetary easing based on the statements of Hassett or Trump, so the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 940 yuan/gram and 980 yuan/gram [8] - The macro logic of silver is similar to that of gold, but the tightness of the physical market has boosted the price to a new high. The silver price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, but one should be wary of the risk of price decline after the new high when the macro easing catalyst materializes [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal differences, and officials may then signal a pause. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has highly priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut. Kevin Hassett believes the Fed still has much room for rate cuts. Trump says he will use support for an immediate and significant rate cut as a "touchstone" for choosing the new Fed chairman and may adjust tariff policies to help lower the prices of some goods [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 9, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 958.04 yuan/gram and closed at 951.54 yuan/gram, down 0.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 955.70 yuan/gram and closed at 955.82 yuan/gram, up 0.45% from the afternoon close [2] - On December 9, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 13,726.00 yuan/kg and closed at 13,607.00 yuan/kg, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,309,030 lots, and the open interest was 417,326 lots. In the night session, it opened at 13,761 yuan/kg and closed at 14,116 yuan/kg, up 3.74% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 9, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.184%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.573%, down 4.4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,520 lots, and the short positions decreased by 933 lots compared with the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts was 291,806 lots, down 21.77% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,943 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,051 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts was 2,048,908 lots, down 33.98% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking - The holdings of the gold ETF remained unchanged at 1,049.11 tons compared with the previous day. The holdings of the silver ETF decreased by 36 tons to 15,889 tons [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On December 9, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 0.07 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,160.19 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 69.93, down 0.02% from the previous trading day, and the ratio in the overseas market was 72.01, down 0.35% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 35,824 kg, down 17.41% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 775,390 kg, down 12.83% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 31,920 kg [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of silver in the market, with significant price increases and a stable premium for silver LOF, indicating ongoing arbitrage opportunities [1][3][10] - The recent announcement by former President Trump allowing NVIDIA to sell AI chips to China is seen as a positive development for the domestic AI industry, potentially boosting market sentiment [6][11] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is a focal point for market participants, with expectations leaning towards a hawkish rate cut, which could influence market dynamics [7][8][9] Group 2 - The article discusses the current high premium of silver LOF, which has remained around 10%, providing consistent arbitrage opportunities for investors [3][10] - The demand for silver is driven by both its safe-haven appeal amid market uncertainties and its industrial applications, particularly in the context of the growing AI and renewable energy sectors [11][12] - The article suggests that if the U.S. stock market experiences a pullback post-Fed meeting, it may present a better entry point for silver LOF investments [12] Group 3 - The article outlines four key factors influencing the Hong Kong stock market, including expectations from the Central Economic Work Conference and the valuation advantages of the Hang Seng Tech Index [19][20][22] - The potential risk of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike is highlighted as a factor that could impact the Hong Kong market, particularly through carry trade dynamics [23] - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies in the Hong Kong market, suggesting a diversified approach through ETFs [24] Group 4 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a "Christmas rally" with technology stocks leading the gains, despite mixed economic signals [25][26] - The article notes that market volatility is expected to increase around the Fed's interest rate decision, with potential implications for both hawkish and dovish outcomes [27][28] - Long-term trends in the U.S. market remain positive, driven by supportive policies and the ongoing growth of the technology sector [29][30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic outlook is basically stable, but there are risks of a slowdown in some areas. The market is worried about the US economic slowdown, and the possibility of interest rate cuts in December has opened up. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will be in a volatile and upward pattern in the near future, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [1][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that economic activity is basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out that the risk of a slowdown in economic activity in the next few months has increased. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April, lower than the expected 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose slightly to 1.96 million [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 942.56 yuan/gram and closed at 946.72 yuan/gram, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 947.00 yuan/gram and closed at 949.34 yuan/gram, up 0.28% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 12,081.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,227.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.82% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 1,643,769 lots, and the open interest was 385,232 lots. In the night session, it opened at 12,250 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,450 yuan/kilogram, up 1.82% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 26, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.992%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.517%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On November 26, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 7,552 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 2,687 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 453,331 lots, a change of 7.60% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai Silver, in the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by 14,304 lots, and the short positions changed by 9,941 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,051,420 lots, a change of 15.48% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,040.86 tons yesterday, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,582 tons, an increase of 70 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 26, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -3.55 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,071.88 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 77.43, a change of -0.79% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 80.65, a change of -0.79% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On November 26, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 57,208 kilograms, a change of -7.39% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 668,376 kilograms, a change of -37.60% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 18,300 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core Viewpoints - Multiple Fed officials have expressed a dovish monetary policy stance. Although there is still uncertainty about a December rate cut, short-term market expectations for monetary easing have improved. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish range, and the silver price is expected to be slightly stronger than gold, with the gold-silver ratio expected to narrow [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of the pace of rate cuts, Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December due to the weak labor market, and he believes that the delayed economic reports after the December meeting may make the January decision more difficult. San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month, believing that the sudden deterioration of the job market is more likely and harder to control than a sudden rise in inflation. Geopolitically, the US and Ukraine have completed a new 19-point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided by Trump and Zelensky, and Russia believes the European peace plan is not constructive and does not serve its interests [2]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 933.98 yuan/gram and closed at 930.32 yuan/gram, a change of 0.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 935.60 yuan/gram and closed at 938.68 yuan/gram, up 0.90% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,715.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,808.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,574,854 lots, and the open interest was 347,468 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,890 yuan/kg and closed at 11,975 yuan/kg, up 1.41% from the afternoon close [3]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.029%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.54%, up 0.77 BP from the previous trading day [4]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 24, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 3,016 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 1,044 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 472,495 lots, a change of 8.79% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, in the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by -2,997 lots, and the short positions changed by 138 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,108,210 lots, a change of 14.26% from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF holdings were 1,040.57 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,258 tons, an increase of 11 tons from the previous trading day [6]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 24, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -10.56 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,173.15 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 78.79, a change of 2.55% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.48, a change of 3.24% from the previous trading day [7]. Fundamentals - On November 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,158 kg, a change of -2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 724,146 kg, a change of 106.05% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 45,840 kg [8]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to be in a slightly bullish range, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 915 yuan/gram and 955 yuan/gram [9]. - Silver: The price is expected to maintain a slightly bullish range, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,700 yuan/kg and 12,200 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10]

Group 1 - Major banks, including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, achieved their best performance in five years in the first quarter of 2025, driven by arbitrage opportunities stemming from U.S. tariff expectations [1][3] - According to Crisil Coalition Greenwich, the revenue from the precious metals business of twelve major banks reached $500 million in the first quarter of 2025, the second highest in ten years, and approximately double the average quarterly earnings over the past decade [3] - The high premium for gold in the U.S. market was a key factor in revenue growth, as traders rushed to transport large amounts of gold and silver to the U.S. due to concerns over tariffs [3] Group 2 - Specific transactions included Morgan Stanley delivering 67 tons of gold valued at approximately $7 billion when settling its Comex positions, while JPMorgan recorded over $4 billion in gold futures contract settlements in February, setting a record for single-day delivery notifications on Comex [3][4] - The volatility caused by the Trump tariff plan generated significant income for twelve major banks, with rising gold prices and increased trading volumes in the London market contributing to this trend [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant profit opportunity for top investment banks due to a surge in precious metals trading amidst tariff fears, resulting in a combined revenue of $500 million in Q1 2025, the second-highest in a decade [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary driver of this unexpected profit is the substantial premium in the U.S. market, as traders moved large quantities of gold and silver to U.S. futures exchanges due to concerns over potential tariffs [2]. - Gold and silver prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) surged above other international benchmarks in Q1, creating an ideal arbitrage window for traders [2]. Group 2: Bank Performance - Morgan Stanley led the way by delivering 67 tons of gold to the New York Mercantile Exchange in Q1, valued at approximately $7 billion at current market prices [3]. - JPMorgan Chase also performed strongly, settling over $4 billion in gold for February futures contracts, with one delivery notification being among the largest in the exchange's history [3]. Group 3: Historical Context - The current arbitrage opportunities echo similar situations during the pandemic in 2020, where banks that found ways to transport gold to New York profited significantly, contributing to JPMorgan's record $1 billion revenue in its metals division that year [4]. - The volatility triggered by the Trump tariff plan has also contributed to revenue growth for the 12 banks involved, alongside a doubling of gold prices since late 2022, which has increased trading volumes in London [4].