非银金融行业周报 中央经济工作会议定调积极，深化投融 资综合改革 2025 年 12 月 17 日 【投资要点】 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024/12 2025/6 2025/12 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《政策双箭齐发，券商扩表与险资配置迎 契机》 2025.12.08 《差异化下调险企风险因子，引导长期资 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王舫朝 证书编号：S1160524090005 证券分析师：廖紫苑 证书编号：S1160524120004 联系人：汪筠婷 相对指数表现 2025.12.08 《政策松绑助力扩表，看好券商高质量发 展》 2025.12.08 《中金拟吸收合并东兴信达，行业格局加 速重塑》 2025.11.24 《社融增速放缓，政策预期或升温》 2025.11.20 行 业 研 究 / 非 银 金 融 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 金入市》 市场观点：本周中央经济工作会议召开，定调明年经济工作，将内需 置于任务首位，释放积极的政策信号。11 月 CPI 同比+0.7%，涨幅为 2024 年 3 月以来最高，主要是食品价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy, highlighting that the fundamental conditions supporting long-term growth remain unchanged [3][4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to deepen comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, focusing on enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems [3] - The CSRC aims to promote the stable operation of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and accelerate the implementation of the "1+6" policy measures to support innovation [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the commitment to expand the openness of China's capital market, with a focus on market-oriented, legal, and international directions [4] - The CSRC intends to improve the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and enhance cross-border investment product offerings to facilitate foreign participation in the Chinese capital market [4] - There is an emphasis on strengthening regulatory capabilities and risk prevention measures in an open environment to protect the legitimate rights and interests of various investors [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy, with a commitment to deepening reforms in the capital market to enhance inclusivity and adaptability [1][2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to advance the reform of the two innovation boards and accelerate the implementation of the "1+6" policy measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - There is a focus on promoting diverse equity financing and enhancing the market ecosystem for long-term investments, including expanding the scale and proportion of equity investments from social security, insurance, and pension funds [1] Group 2 - The CSRC aims to steadily expand the high-level institutional opening of the capital market, creating a favorable investment environment for international investors [2] - Efforts will be made to improve the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and enhance cross-border investment product offerings [2] - The regulatory capacity and risk prevention capabilities will be strengthened in an open environment, ensuring the protection of various investors' legal rights [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of deepening comprehensive reforms in investment and financing as highlighted by the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, during the Financial Street Forum [1] - China has established a multi-tiered capital market system with distinct focuses for different boards, which will enhance the differentiated positioning and synergistic effects of each segment, ultimately driving high-quality development of the real economy [1] - The introduction of the optimized QFII scheme is expected to increase the inclusiveness and convenience of the QFII mechanism, attracting long-term foreign capital to invest in quality Chinese assets and aligning capital market rules with international standards [1] Group 2 - Another key development focus is significantly improving the protection of investors' rights, with a comprehensive policy document marking a new phase in investor protection that enhances the sense of security for small and medium investors [1] - The "zero tolerance" approach towards fraudulent activities and financial misconduct is gradually optimizing the fair trading environment in the market [1] - The full-chain governance approach, which includes prevention, resolution, and punishment, aims to build a foundation of trust in the market and encourage various funds to invest sustainably, contributing to the high-quality development of the capital market [1]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Management - The central bank is gradually implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with macro-prudential management continuously improving, as evidenced by the recent financial forum where the central bank governor emphasized the importance of debt market operations [6][8] - The central bank's net purchase of 700 billion yuan in government bonds from October to December 2024 is aimed at alleviating supply-side pressures, indicating a mature timing for the resumption of bond trading [6][7] - The construction of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is being accelerated to prevent and resolve financial risks, enhancing the ability to manage banking asset quality concerns [8] Group 2: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market is focusing on deepening investment and financing reforms while enhancing protections for small and medium investors, as highlighted in a recent speech by the chairman of the securities regulatory commission [11][12] - The multi-tiered capital market system is being reinforced, with specific reforms aimed at the growth board and the North Exchange to better serve emerging industries and technologies [13][14] - The introduction of a refinancing framework is expected to streamline the process for quality companies, allowing them to issue securities in a more flexible manner [15] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Huayang Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 3.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, driven by strong performance in automotive electronics and precision die-casting [19][20] - Hengli Hydraulic achieved a revenue of 7.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 12.31% year-on-year growth, with a notable recovery in the excavator industry [23][24] - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 net profit increased by 81.47% year-on-year, despite a revenue decline, due to effective cost management and improved gross margins [27][28] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations for Huayang Group suggest a clear growth path driven by automotive electronics and precision die-casting, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [22] - Hengli Hydraulic is positioned as a leader in the hydraulic components market, with expected net profits of 2.796 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a strong recovery in the excavator sector [25] - Hengli Petrochemical is expected to benefit from a new cycle in the refining industry, with a maintained "buy" rating based on its robust dividend policy and market position [29]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening investment and financing reforms to strengthen the stability of China's capital market, highlighting the need for high-quality listed companies and a robust long-term investment ecosystem [1]. Group 1: Capital Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) stresses the cultivation of high-quality listed companies and the establishment of a long-term investment market ecosystem to enhance market stability [1]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the resilience and risk resistance of China's capital market have significantly improved, achieving reasonable growth in quantity and effective enhancement in quality [1]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to further deepen investment and financing reforms through various measures, including refinancing, mergers and acquisitions, and optimizing long-term funding assessment mechanisms [1]. Group 2: High-Quality Listed Companies - High-quality listed companies are considered the cornerstone of stable capital market operations, with various regulatory measures introduced to promote their development [1]. - Initiatives such as the "Science and Technology Innovation Board" reforms and improved corporate governance have led to enhanced quality and investment value of listed companies [1]. - Over the past five years, listed companies have distributed a total of 10.6 trillion yuan in dividends and buybacks, representing an increase of over 80% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. Group 3: Long-Term Investment and Fund Management - Long-term funds are viewed as stabilizers for the capital market, with public fund reforms and initiatives to facilitate the entry of social security and insurance funds into the market [2][3]. - As of August this year, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market capitalization, a 32% increase compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The ongoing reforms aim to create a more rational investment environment focused on long-term value creation, which is expected to reduce market volatility and enhance stability [3]. Group 4: Mechanisms for Market Stability - The construction of long-term mechanisms for market stability is crucial, especially in response to external shocks causing market fluctuations [4]. - A collaborative approach involving policy support, funding, and market mechanisms has begun to take shape, aiming to enhance the inherent stability of the capital market [4]. - Future efforts may include establishing diversified funding sources and upgrading temporary arrangements into institutional frameworks to promote long-term stability [4].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chairman Wu Qing emphasized the need to deepen comprehensive reforms in investment and financing to enhance market inclusiveness and attractiveness, positioning these reforms as a key driver for the long-term development of the capital market [1][2]. Group 1: Reform Directions - The focus is on deepening investment and financing reforms, which includes advancing sector reforms to solidify the internal stability of the market and expanding high-level openness to enhance the capital market's inclusiveness, adaptability, and competitiveness [2][3]. - The meeting outlined two main paths for sector reform: initiating deeper reforms in the ChiNext board to set more suitable listing standards for emerging industries and continuously promoting the high-quality development of the Beijing Stock Exchange [3]. Group 2: Long-term Capital and Market Stability - Efforts are being made to enhance the role of long-term capital as a stabilizer in the market, with reforms in public funds and insurance capital to better match funding with enterprise growth cycles [4]. - The introduction of a refinancing framework is proposed to simplify the process for quality enterprises to obtain funding, allowing them to issue in phases based on their needs [4]. Group 3: QFII Mechanism and Investor Protection - The Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) mechanism is being optimized to expand its investment scope and improve operational efficiency, which is expected to attract more long-term foreign capital into China's quality assets [5]. - A comprehensive policy document on protecting small and medium investors has been released, marking a new phase in investor protection that aims to enhance trust and security in the market [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of the 2025 Financial Street Forum held on October 27, where the Chairman of the CSRC emphasized the dual coordinates of "changing situation" and "new opportunities" for the capital market's high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5]. - It discusses the need for deepening investment and financing reforms to enhance market inclusiveness and attractiveness, which includes advancing sector reforms and improving the multi-tiered capital market system [5]. - The report suggests that the reforms will strengthen the differentiated positioning and collaborative effects of various market segments, thereby injecting stronger and more precise capital momentum into the high-quality development of the real economy [5]. - It also emphasizes the importance of long-term capital as a stabilizing force and the need to create a market ecology that supports long-term investments [5]. - The report proposes the introduction of a refinancing framework to broaden support channels for mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the efficiency of financing processes [5]. - Additionally, it mentions the optimization of the QFII mechanism to steadily expand high-level institutional openness, which will enhance the inclusiveness and convenience of foreign capital participation in the Chinese market [6]. - The report concludes with investment recommendations focusing on mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, and opportunities in large securities firms with strong capital and stable operations [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The industry index is rated as "Overweight," with expectations of outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [7]. Key Developments - The Financial Street Forum highlighted the need for reforms in the capital market to adapt to both external changes and internal development needs, particularly in emerging industries like AI and biomedicine [5]. - The report outlines two main directions for deepening investment and financing reforms: enhancing market inclusiveness and expanding high-level openness [5]. Market Structure - The report discusses the establishment of a multi-tiered capital market system, emphasizing the need for differentiated standards for new industries and technologies [5]. - It highlights the importance of long-term capital and the need for a supportive ecosystem for long-term investments [5]. Regulatory Changes - The introduction of a refinancing framework is proposed to streamline the financing process for mergers and acquisitions, allowing for more flexible capital matching [5]. - The report also mentions the optimization of the QFII mechanism to facilitate foreign investment in the Chinese market [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, and large securities firms with robust capital and stable operations as potential investment opportunities [5].

Core Insights - The speech by the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Wu Qing, emphasizes the new opportunities for the securities industry at the intersection of the "14th Five-Year Plan" economic upgrade and capital market reforms [1][2] - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in establishing a "financial powerhouse," driven by increased global market vulnerabilities and the emergence of new industrial cycles led by AI and biotechnology [1][2] Financing Aspects - The first batch of unprofitable companies will be listed under the "Science and Technology Innovation Growth Tier," further deepening the reform of the ChiNext board [2] - A "shelf issuance system" is proposed to more efficiently inject capital into emerging and future industries [2] Investment Aspects - The focus is on building a "long-term investment" ecosystem domestically to strengthen patient capital aligned with the characteristics of technological innovation [2] - The "Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system optimization work plan" has been released to enhance the convenience and predictability of foreign capital allocation [2] Regulatory and Risk Management - New guidelines have been issued to strengthen the protection of small and medium investors in the capital market, ensuring internal stability [2] - The overall theme of high-quality development in the capital market has been established as a fundamental goal for the current period and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Financial Street Forum emphasizes the need for innovation and reform in the global financial development landscape, highlighting the resilience and growth of China's capital markets amid various challenges [1] Group 1: Market Reform and Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to deepen reforms in the multi-tiered market system, enhancing inclusivity and coverage, with the introduction of new listing standards for emerging industries and innovative enterprises [2] - The CSRC plans to promote high-quality development of the Beijing Stock Exchange and improve the differentiated listing, information disclosure, and trading systems of the New Third Board [2] Group 2: Strengthening Market Stability - High-quality listed companies are deemed essential for the stable operation of capital markets, with plans to introduce a refinancing framework and broaden merger and acquisition support channels [3] - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of long-term funds as stabilizers in the market, promoting reforms in public funds and enhancing long-term investment products and risk management tools [3] Group 3: Opening Up and International Cooperation - The CSRC has launched an optimized Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme to enhance transparency and efficiency for foreign investors, including streamlined approval processes and expanded investment scopes [4] - Efforts will be made to improve the mutual connectivity mechanisms and deepen cooperation between mainland and Hong Kong markets [4] Group 4: Risk Prevention and Investor Protection - The CSRC is focused on enhancing risk prevention capabilities and regulatory enforcement to protect investor rights, including measures against financial fraud and market manipulation [5] - A set of 23 practical measures will be introduced to strengthen the protection of small and medium investors, ensuring a fair trading environment and improving service levels in the industry [5]