美国总统唐纳德·特朗普首次访问海湾地区，并于2025年5月13日与沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼举行会晤。图片来源： WIN MCNAMEE/GETTY IMAGES 除了大规模经济协议外，唐纳德·特朗普喜欢的另外一件事就是低油价。 但他目前对海湾国家的访问，正让这两个目标产生冲突。 美国政府大肆宣传沙特阿拉伯的投资承诺，称总额达6,000亿美元，甚至有说法称达到1万亿美元。 这堪称天文数字：若按1万亿美元计算，这笔投资相当于沙特主权财富或GDP的总值。要想长期维持这 种程度的对美投资，沙特很可能需要推高当前的低油价，但这肯定会激怒特朗普。 位于利雅得的海湾研究中心（Gulf Research Center）首席经济学家兼研究主任约翰·斯法基亚纳基斯对 《财富》杂志表示："这个数字令人震撼，但其意义最终将取决于投资深度、时间线和油价水平。除非 石油收入增加，否则除非谨慎管理，履行这个承诺将使沙特的公共财政紧张。" 据《海湾新闻》报道，石油目前占沙特财政收入的约60%。 牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）首席经济学家玛雅·塞努西通过电子邮件对《财富》表示："这些 投资承诺确实规模庞大，当然要考虑现 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the potential for high-value agreements signed by the U.S. with Gulf countries to become "unfinished projects" rather than actualized investments [1][5] - During President Trump's visit to the Middle East, over $1 trillion in commercial agreements were signed with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, covering sectors such as defense, aviation, energy, and artificial intelligence [1][3] - The visit aimed to strengthen economic cooperation between the U.S. and Gulf nations, with a focus on attracting increased investments from these countries [1][4] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia committed to a $600 billion investment over four years, although Trump sought to increase this to $1 trillion [3][5] - Qatar signed agreements worth over $243.5 billion, including a $96 billion deal for Boeing aircraft [3] - The UAE reached agreements exceeding $200 billion, involving aircraft purchases and oil and gas project expansions [3] Group 3 - There are concerns regarding the actual implementation of these agreements, with skepticism about the inflated figures presented by Trump [5][6] - Historical context shows that previous agreements, such as a $350 billion deal from Trump's 2017 visit to Saudi Arabia, have not been fulfilled [5][6] - The actual foreign direct investment (FDI) from Saudi Arabia in the U.S. is significantly lower than the promised amounts, indicating that many figures may be more aspirational than realistic [6]