美银行体系准备金八连降跌破3万亿美元，美联储缩表或接近拐点。美国银行体系的准备金已连续八周下降，并首次跌破3万亿美元大关，令市场对美 联储是否会提前结束缩表产生关注。根据美联储周四公布的数据，截至10月1日的一周，银行准备金减少201亿美元至2.98万亿美元，创下今年1月以来 最低水平。准备金下滑与美国财政部的加大发债密切相关。自7月上调债务上限后，财政部加快发行国债以重建现金余额，吸收了市场流动性。这直接 冲击了美联储资产负债表中的负债端，包括隔夜逆回购(RRP)工具和商业银行准备金。随着RRP逐渐枯竭，商业银行在美联储持有的准备金成为主 要"出血口"。该变化正值美联储继续实施量化紧缩(QT)。QT通过缩减国债和MBS持有规模，收紧金融体系流动性。今年早些时候，美联储已放缓缩表 节奏，每月减少的债券到期规模有所降低，以避免引发市场震荡。 美联储威廉姆斯：各大央行必须为意外情况做好准备。FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五表示，不可预测的变化是不可避免的，央行需要 认识到这一点，并制定策略来应对这些环境。他表示，应对不确定性意味着央行需要制定强有力的原则和策略，以应对一系列突发事件，同时指出仍 将有新情 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周四，三大股指均创历史最高收盘纪录。美国预测交易平台Kalshi显示，市场现在 预计美国政府停摆将持续近13天，高于昨天预测的9天。市场情绪正转向认为华盛顿的僵局将持续更长 时间。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨78.62点，涨幅为0.17%，报46519.72点；纳指涨88.89点，涨幅为0.39%，报 22844.05点；标普500指数涨4.15点，涨幅为0.06%，报6715.35点。英特尔(INTC.US)涨3.78%， AMD(AMD.US)涨3.5%、Circle(CRCL.US)涨16.05%、Coinbase(COIN.US)涨7.48%；特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌 5.11%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.06%，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)涨3.59%、蔚来汽车(NIO.US)涨 3.14%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨287.77点，涨幅1.19%，报24437.22点；英国富时100指数跌22.98点，跌幅 0.24%，报9423.45点；法国CAC40指数涨89.68点，涨幅1.13%，报8056.63点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 66.24点，涨幅1.19%，报5647.4 ...

周四，三大股指均创历史最高收盘纪录。美国预测交易平台Kalshi显示，市场现在预计美国政府停摆将 持续近13天，高于昨天预测的9天。市场情绪正转向认为华盛顿的僵局将持续更长时间。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨78.62点，涨幅为0.17%，报46519.72点；纳指涨88.89点，涨幅为0.39%，报 22844.05点；标普500指数涨4.15点，涨幅为0.06%，报6715.35点。英特尔(INTC.US)涨3.78%， AMD(AMD.US)涨3.5%、Circle(CRCL.US)涨16.05%、Coinbase(COIN.US)涨7.48%；特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌 5.11%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.06%，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)涨3.59%、蔚来汽车(NIO.US)涨 3.14%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨287.77点，涨幅1.19%，报24437.22点；英国富时100指数跌22.98点，跌幅 0.24%，报9423.45点；法国CAC40指数涨89.68点，涨幅1.13%，报8056.63点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 66.24点，涨幅1.19%，报5647.45点；西班牙IBEX3 ...

周四（10月2日），美股三大指数连涨五天，且均刷新收盘纪录。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.17%，报46519.72点；标普500指数涨0.06%，报6715.35点；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.39%，报22844.05点，刷新了9 月22日录得的收盘纪录。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | .DJI | 道現斯指数 | | 46519.72 | +78.62 | 0.17% | | .SPX | 标普500指数 | | 6715.35 | +4.15 | 0.06% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克综合指数 | (0) | 22844.05 | +88.89 | 0.39% | 因美国国会参议院否决临时拨款法案，美国联邦政府进入"停摆"。受政府"关门"影响，约75万名联邦雇员被迫停薪休假，多项公共服务陷入 停滞，国家公园、航空系统均受到冲击。 市场担心"停摆"会给美国经济带来直接损失，导致美国股市早盘整体承压。但投资者又认为，联邦政府资金中断的时间不会很长，不太可 能会对经济造成特别严重的影响。 Zacks ...

Core Viewpoint - Qatar Airways has confirmed the cancellation of its order for 25 Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft amid ongoing disputes with Airbus and a strategic shift towards Airbus for its short-haul operations [1][3]. Group 1: Cancellation of Boeing Order - Qatar Airways CEO Badr Mohammed Al-Mahmoud announced the cancellation of the 25 Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft, which was initially expected to be delivered by the end of 2025 [3]. - The decision to cancel the order was influenced by the aircraft model no longer meeting the airline's fleet requirements, despite earlier speculation that the order might be converted to the 737 MAX 8 model [3]. Group 2: Shift to Airbus - Following the cancellation of the Boeing order, Qatar Airways' remaining narrow-body aircraft orders are entirely with Airbus, indicating a strategic pivot back to Airbus for its short-haul route strategy [3]. - The airline had previously been involved in a legal dispute with Airbus over A350 aircraft, which led to significant order cancellations and a compensation claim exceeding $600 million [4]. Group 3: New Orders with Boeing - Recently, Qatar Airways signed a new agreement with Boeing for 160 aircraft, including 30 Boeing 777X and 130 Boeing 787, with a total transaction value of approximately $96 billion [4]. - The agreement also includes purchase options for 50 additional units of each aircraft type [4].

Core Viewpoint - Boeing, once a symbol of American manufacturing, now relies heavily on foreign orders for survival, as evidenced by recent transactions with Middle Eastern countries and the implications of U.S. trade policies [2][52]. Group 1: Recent Transactions and Orders - Qatar gifted a Boeing 747 valued at $400 million to the U.S. military, which will be modified to serve as Air Force One [2][4]. - The UAE's AviLease ordered 20 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, with an option for 10 more, while Qatar Airways signed a contract worth $96 billion for up to 210 Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft [6][7]. - Boeing's revenue is projected to drop to $66.5 billion in 2024, marking a significant decline from $101.1 billion in 2018, with continuous losses expected [7][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Boeing's financials show a decline in revenue from $101.1 billion in 2018 to an expected $66.5 billion in 2024, with a net loss projected at $10.7 billion for 2024 [9]. - The company has faced operational losses for five consecutive years, with a projected operating loss of $10.7 billion in 2024 [9]. - Boeing's backlog of orders remains substantial, with $49.88 billion in contracts as of 2024, indicating ongoing demand despite recent challenges [9]. Group 3: Historical Context and Industry Position - Boeing has been a significant player in the aerospace and defense sectors, being the largest exporter in the U.S. and employing over 172,000 people, with 85% based in the U.S. [26][38]. - The company has transitioned from a manufacturing powerhouse to a more finance-driven model, outsourcing approximately 70% of its production [33][34]. - The decline in Boeing's reputation and market share is seen as a reflection of broader issues within American manufacturing, particularly following high-profile accidents and operational challenges [36][41]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - U.S. trade policies and tariffs have created uncertainty for Boeing, with potential price increases for its aircraft due to tariffs, which could benefit competitors like Airbus [41][42]. - The relationship between Boeing and China has deteriorated, with no significant orders from China since 2017, contrasting with previous decades of strong collaboration [49][50]. - Boeing's future heavily relies on U.S. government support and the revival of American manufacturing, particularly under the current administration's policies [38][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [4]. Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes that domestic trade and military trade continue to drive demand in the industry [10][48]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The "New Era of China's National Security" white paper was released on May 12, outlining China's strategic focus on national security and its interaction with global stability [48]. - Recent defense sales agreements were made with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, totaling approximately $4.3 billion, indicating strong international demand for military equipment [49][50][51]. Market Performance - The military industry index (801740) decreased by 1.18% from May 12 to May 16, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.12% [19]. - The military index has increased by 0.68% since 2025, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has decreased by 1.16%, showing relative strength in the long term [21]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [54]. - Domestic Trade: Companies such as Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, and others are highlighted [54]. - Foreign Trade: Companies like Guangdong Hongda and Aerospace Rainbow are recommended [55]. - Self-Sufficiency: Companies involved in commercial engines and nuclear fusion are noted [56]. Financial Insights - As of May 16, the military industry index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 65.05, indicating a high valuation but potential for recovery in demand by 2025 [53][38]. - Passive fund inflows into military ETFs have increased, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [32].

Group 1 - The United States and the UAE signed an economic agreement worth over $200 billion, enhancing cooperation in sectors such as aviation, energy, rare earths, and artificial intelligence [1][5] - The UAE plans to invest $1.4 trillion in the US over the next 10 years, focusing on energy, technology, and semiconductor sectors [2][5] - The agreement includes provisions for the UAE to import 500,000 advanced AI chips from Nvidia annually starting in 2025 [2][3] Group 2 - The establishment of a "US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership" framework aims to strengthen collaboration on critical technologies, with the UAE's G42 leading investments in AI infrastructure [3][4] - A planned AI park in Abu Dhabi will have a capacity of 5 gigawatts and is expected to become the largest AI park outside the US, utilizing nuclear, solar, and natural gas for power generation [3][4] - The agreement includes strict technology non-proliferation clauses, ensuring US companies lead data center operations in the region [4]

Group 1 - The United States and the UAE have reached over $200 billion in trade agreements, including a $14.5 billion procurement commitment between Emirates Airline, Boeing, and General Electric Aviation [1] - Boeing has received a procurement intention from Etihad Airways to purchase 28 Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft, valued at $14.5 billion, which will be equipped with General Electric engines [1] - The investment deepens the long-standing commercial aviation partnership between the UAE and the US, promoting US manufacturing and exports [1] Group 2 - Emirates Global Aluminium is investing $4 billion to develop a new aluminum smelting plant in Oklahoma, marking the first new aluminum smelting plant in the US in 45 years, expected to create jobs and strengthen the critical mineral supply chain [1] - ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, and EOG Resources are collaborating with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to expand oil and gas production, valued at $60 billion [1] Group 3 - Raytheon Technologies is collaborating with Emirates Global Aluminium and the Tawazun Council on a gallium project to ensure and stabilize the US critical mineral supply chain [2] - Amazon Web Services (AWS), e&, and the UAE Cybersecurity Council have launched a sovereign cloud startup platform to accelerate the adoption of public cloud services in the UAE [2] - Qualcomm is expanding its global innovation footprint through partnerships with the Abu Dhabi Investment Office and e& [2]

Group 1 - German Chancellor Merz stated that there are currently no plans to supply "Taurus" cruise missiles to Ukraine, and this issue is not on the agenda [2] - Russian President Putin signed a presidential decree appointing Oleg Salyukov as the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council, relieving him of his position as Commander of the Russian Ground Forces [3] - The official announcement regarding the new Commander of the Ground Forces has not yet been made by Russian authorities [4] Group 2 - The UAE and the US reached an agreement worth over $200 billion, covering cooperation in aviation, aluminum, oil, and natural gas [5] - The agreement includes a commitment from Etihad Airways to invest $14.5 billion in purchasing 28 Boeing 787 "Dreamliner" and Boeing 777X aircraft [5] - The UAE Global Aluminum will invest $4 billion in a smelter project in Oklahoma, and several US companies will collaborate with the UAE in semiconductor, cybersecurity, cloud services, and artificial intelligence development [5]