足金饰品价格突破1100元/克 10月6日，现货黄金本周开局维持强势，上破3900美元/盎司关口，随后快速走高，最高升至3920.77美元/盎司，日内最高涨0.9%，再创历史新高。 距离首次突破3800美元关口仅不到10天，年内累计涨幅已达49%。 目前来看，美联储将在10月份的议息会议上降息的概率接近95%，同时12月份降息的概率则在99%左右。据芝商所"美联储观察"工具：美联储10月维持利 率不变的概率为5.4%，降息25个基点的概率为94.6%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为0.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为14.5%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为84.9%。 与此同时，多家黄金珠宝品牌当日公布的境内足金首饰价格也受金价上涨影响而水涨船高。周生生、周大福、六福珠宝、老凤祥等品牌的足金首饰价格均 突破了1100元/克。 COMEX黄金亦走强，最高升至3945.2美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 | 品牌 | 银行 | 回收 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | | | 价格(元/克) | 日涨跌幅 | | 周大福 | | | 1129 | 0.00% | | ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices reached new closing highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.17% at 46,519.72 points, the Nasdaq up 0.39% at 22,844.05 points, and the S&P 500 up 0.06% at 6,715.35 points [1][3][2] Individual Stocks - Tesla's stock fell over 5%, resulting in a market value loss of more than $75 billion, closing at $436 per share despite record delivery and production numbers [5][6] - Other notable movements included Meta and Broadcom rising over 1%, while Circle surged over 16% and Coinbase increased over 7% [5] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.06%, with most popular Chinese stocks experiencing gains, including Century Internet up over 4%, Alibaba, NIO, and Kingsoft up over 3% [8][1] Commodity Prices - International gold prices continued to rise, with London spot gold nearing $3,900 per ounce and COMEX gold futures surpassing $3,923 per ounce [12][10] - Goldman Sachs highlighted gold's appeal as a hedge against economic slowdown and market uncertainties, predicting further price increases due to strong interest from private investors [15]

来源|华尔街见闻 01 ETF资金意外涌入，主要源自私人投资者转向 高盛在报告中强调，近期金价突破的关键驱动力之一，是西方投资者对黄金ETF的强劲需求。 高盛的分析框架将黄金买家分为三类：西方ETF投资者、各国央行和投机者，而近期金价的上涨主要反映了"信念坚定"的个人买家正在加大采购力 度。 报告显示，9月份流入黄金ETF的资金量达到了109吨，而该行的模型基于利率走势预测的流入量仅为17吨。其中，投机性仓位在过去一个多月的涨 幅中仅能解释约1个百分点，且在最近三周并未增加。 这一"巨大意外"表明，高盛此前一直警示的潜在上行风险——即个人投资者将大量资金分散配置到黄金——"目前似乎正在成为现实"。 报告进一步指出，在金价自8月26日以来的约14%的涨幅中，由西方ETF持仓增长贡献了其中的3个百分点。 长期看涨黄金的高盛表示，在西方个人投资者意外大举增持的推动下，金价的涨势可能远未结束。 据追风交易台消息显示，高盛分析师Daan Struyven、Lina Thomas、Alexandra Paulus在近日发布的研报中表示，近期流入黄金ETF的资金规模远 超模型预期，表明个人投资者将资金从固收等传统资产转向黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by strong interest from private investors, suggesting further upside potential that may exceed previous forecasts [2][10]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,865 per ounce, continuing a five-day upward trend and approaching the $4,000 milestone [1]. - Year-to-date, gold has surged nearly 50%, surpassing the highest inflation-adjusted record set in 1980 [7]. - Since August 29, gold prices have increased by over 10%, breaking through previous trading ranges of $3,200 to $3,450 per ounce [7]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Private investors are significantly increasing their investments in gold, with September inflows into gold ETFs reaching 109 tons, far exceeding the model's predicted 17 tons [9]. - The report highlights two types of gold buyers: steadfast buyers who consistently purchase regardless of price, and opportunistic buyers who enter the market only when prices are favorable [9]. - Steadfast buyers, including central banks and ETFs, have a notable impact on price movements, with a net purchase of 100 tons of gold correlating to a 1.7% increase in gold prices [8]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold purchases, with a structural shift in reserve management observed since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [8]. - A recent survey indicated that 95% of central banks anticipate increasing their gold holdings over the next 12 months, with 43% planning to buy more gold, the highest level since 2018 [8]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the trend of central banks increasing gold allocations will persist for at least three years, particularly among emerging market central banks [8].

长期看涨黄金的高盛表示，在西方个人投资者意外大举增持的推动下，金价的涨势可能远未结束。 据追风交易台消息显示，高盛分析师Daan Struyven、Lina Thomas、Alexandra Paulus在近日发布的研报 中表示，近期流入黄金ETF的资金规模远超模型预期，表明个人投资者将资金从固收等传统资产转向黄 金的趋势可能正在成为现实，这一动向被视为金价上行的关键"巨大风险"。 自8月下旬以来，黄金价格已上涨超过10%，强势突破了第二、三季度的交易区间。报告称，此轮上涨 的主要动力来自"信念坚定"的买家，而非投机性短线资金，这增加了本轮涨势的可持续性。 该行重申，黄金仍然是其"最高信念"的做多大宗商品推荐。高盛此前曾测算，若私人持有的美国国债资 金中仅有1%转向黄金，金价理论上可能升至近5000美元/盎司，这一情景正因投资者行为的变化而变得 更具现实可能。 ETF资金意外涌入，主要源自私人投资者转向 高盛认为，该行对金价的基准预测正面临越来越大的上行风险。 风险加剧的原因有二：首先，本轮涨势的投机成分很低，表明涨势基础更为坚实。其次，由于黄金市场 规模相对较小（例如，西方黄金ETF的总价值仅相当于私人持有 ...

Group 1 - Lockheed Martin's shares increased by 3.5% despite a 1.1% decline in the S&P 500, driven by geopolitical tensions following Israel's strike on Iran, which raised the possibility of increased defense spending [1] - The U.S. Defense Department may reduce its orders for Lockheed's F-35s from 48 to 24 planes in fiscal 2026, potentially impacting about 5% of Lockheed's revenue [2] - The escalation of conflict could lead to a reversal or reduction of the anticipated F-35 order cuts, as Israel is a significant buyer of Lockheed's defense equipment [3][4] Group 2 - Defense stocks, including Lockheed Martin, have faced pressure this year due to skepticism around defense spending and government efficiency efforts, but they can provide stability during geopolitical tensions [6][7] - In times of rising geopolitical tensions, defense, oil, and gold stocks can act as a hedge, offering a form of insurance for diversified portfolios, while Lockheed also provides dividends [8]