Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's cautious signals led to significant volatility in the gold market [1] - Powell indicated a potential 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, but future cuts in 2026 and 2027 would be limited to 25 basis points each year, reducing expectations for rapid monetary easing [1] - Following Powell's remarks, spot gold prices fell to approximately $3375.10 per ounce, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous day [1] Group 2 - Powell emphasized the Fed's close monitoring of inflation data, predicting a rise in the inflation rate to 3% by year-end, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3] - The U.S. Treasury reported a nearly fourfold increase in customs tariff revenue in May, indicating that tariff costs are being passed on to consumers, which typically supports gold's anti-inflation properties [3] - Despite inflation pressures, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts has exerted downward pressure on gold prices, with analysts noting that gold needs to break the $3400 resistance level to reverse its short-term decline [3] Group 3 - In the precious metals market, there is a divergence in capital flows, with silver prices dropping by 1.5% to $36.70 per ounce, while platinum rose by 4.3%, reaching its highest level since February 2021 [4] - Goldman Sachs noted that the movements in silver and platinum are primarily driven by speculative funds, lacking solid fundamental support, while gold's price is more influenced by macroeconomic policies and inflation expectations [4] - The gold market faces conflicting signals: the Fed's cautious stance and a strengthening dollar create short-term pressure, while inflation risks from tariffs and signs of economic slowdown provide potential support for gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in gold prices due to international market fluctuations, with domestic gold jewelry prices dropping below 1,000 yuan per gram [1][6][10] - On May 12, international gold futures fell by 3.06%, closing at $3,241.80 per ounce, while spot gold dropped nearly 3%, falling below the $3,250 mark [3][10] - The recent trend shows that spot gold has decreased in four out of the last five trading days, with a notable drop of 2.73% on May 12, where it lost up to $118 per ounce during trading [6][10] Group 2 - The market sentiment has shifted due to easing geopolitical tensions and trade agreements between the US and UK, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold [10][12] - Despite short-term volatility, global central bank gold purchases remain strong, with the World Gold Council reporting a net purchase of 244 tons in Q1 2025 [12][14] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves to 7.377 million ounces as of the end of April, marking a continuous increase for six months [13] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the current high volatility in gold prices may lead to a correction, with potential upward pressure on inflation in the US later this year, which could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [14] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish long-term outlook on gold, forecasting that spot gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 by mid-2026 [14]

Macro Perspective - On May 12, global financial markets experienced significant turbulence, with gold prices plummeting to a low of $3207.63 per ounce, marking a 3.5% drop in COMEX gold futures, the worst single-day performance in 2025 [1] - The sell-off was triggered by a 90-day "truce agreement" between China and the U.S., leading to a substantial reduction in tariffs and a sharp decline in market risk aversion, resulting in a shift of funds towards risk assets and a notable rise in U.S. stock indices [1] - Despite the positive market reaction, uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the upcoming CPI data, which could impact gold's inflation-hedging properties if it exceeds expectations [1] - Geopolitical risks, including nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan and ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations, could reignite risk aversion in the market [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend on Monday, reaching a high of 101.955 and closing at 101.777 after fluctuating throughout the day [2] - The analysis indicates that the dollar index is likely to face resistance around the 102.90 area in the medium term, while key support is identified at the 100 level [2] - Short-term traders are advised to monitor the 101.30 support level, with potential upward movement expected if this level holds [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a significant decline on Monday, with a high of $3292.03 and a low of $3207.63, ultimately closing at $3234.64 [4] - The market opened with a gap down and continued to show weakness, although caution is advised against short positions until the price breaks below the recent low of $3200 [5] - The monthly trend indicates a correction after four months of gains, with support at the $3100 level, suggesting a potential for a medium-term bullish outlook [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair saw a downward trend on Monday, with prices ranging from a low of 1.1242 to a high of 1.1064, closing at 1.1085 [7] - Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by a monthly support level at 1.0800, while short-term traders should focus on resistance around 1.1180-1.1190 [7] - The market is currently under pressure, and a break above 1.1290 is necessary for a bullish reversal; otherwise, a bearish outlook is maintained [7]

Core Viewpoint - In the current macroeconomic environment characterized by high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, the value of gold as a hedge against dollar risk is strengthening, highlighting an important marginal change for gold prices [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The establishment and eventual collapse of the gold standard were influenced by the scarcity of gold and its perception as a symbol of wealth, leading to its natural monetary attributes [2]. - The collapse of the gold standard was accelerated by World War I, which resulted in high deficits and inflation, causing countries to restrict gold convertibility [2]. - The transition from the gold standard to the Bretton Woods system marked a significant shift, where the U.S. emerged as the primary beneficiary, but the system faced challenges due to the over-issuance of dollars and insufficient gold reserves [3][6]. Group 2: Evolution of the Global Monetary System - The formation of the Jamaica system in 1976 transitioned the international monetary system from a gold anchor to a credit anchor, allowing for floating exchange rates and decoupling currencies from gold [8]. - The U.S. remains the core of the global monetary system, with the Jamaica system creating a dollar circulation system contrary to the Bretton Woods framework [8]. Group 3: Current Macroeconomic Environment - The U.S. economy is currently facing challenges that affect the global monetary system, including high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, leading to a complex interplay between fiscal, economic, and monetary policies [12]. - The demand for digital currencies and gold is increasing among global central banks as they navigate these challenges [12]. Group 4: Gold's Value in the Current Monetary System - While gold cannot replace the dollar, it serves as an important asset for hedging against dollar risks, particularly in light of long-term inflation risks and concerns over U.S. policy [15]. - The attributes of gold, including its anti-inflation, safe-haven, and credit properties, are becoming increasingly influential on gold prices, alongside the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [15].