Core Insights - Wuliangye has notified its distributors to ensure normal payment collections while controlling the overall shipment pace, aiming to maintain market prices [1] - Industry insiders suggest that this inventory control measure signals the company's intent to limit supply from the source, allowing the market to focus on depleting existing stock, which in turn supports price stability [1] Company Actions - Wuliangye is implementing a strategy to manage the flow of products to the market, indicating a proactive approach to price management [1] - The company is emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong market price for its products through controlled distribution [1] Market Implications - The decision to control shipments is expected to help stabilize prices by reducing the influx of new products into the market [1] - This strategy may lead to a more concentrated effort in the market to consume existing inventory, potentially benefiting the overall pricing structure [1]

Core Insights - Wuliangye has notified its distributors to ensure normal payment collections while controlling the overall shipment pace to maintain market prices [1] - This inventory control strategy is intended to signal the market that the company is limiting supply from the source, allowing the market to focus on depleting existing stock, which in turn supports price stability [1] Pricing Information - The current wholesale price for the eighth generation Wuliangye (loose bottles) is approximately 800 yuan, while the original package wholesale price ranges from 820 to 825 yuan, showing a certain degree of increase compared to pre-Mid-Autumn Festival levels [1] Distributor Operations - Typically, distributors of liquor companies make payments to the manufacturer in multiple batches throughout the year. The manufacturer then releases equivalent value goods based on the payments received [1] - A Wuliangye distributor explained that previously they could request large quantities of goods at once, but now they are limited to requesting smaller batches, such as tens of items at a time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from various liquor companies, including Sichuan Water Well, indicate a strategic shift towards controlling inventory and stabilizing pricing in response to market fluctuations and channel disruptions [1][3][11] Group 1: Company Actions - Sichuan Water Well announced a halt on the sale of its "Zhen Niang No. 8" 500ml product across all channels and implemented measures to stabilize the value chain and manage promotions during the 618 sales period [1] - The company emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable pricing system to boost market confidence and support the steady development of its core products [1] - Other liquor companies, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, have also issued stop-sale notices and are focusing on inventory reduction and ensuring distributor profitability [3][5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is experiencing a trend of inventory control and price stabilization as companies respond to market adjustments and unstable terminal prices [5][6] - Industry leaders are advocating for measures to ensure distributor profitability, which is seen as essential for maintaining active sales efforts and preventing price erosion [6][11] - Recent data indicates significant profit declines for liquor distributors, highlighting the need for companies to support their partners to avoid excess inventory and price drops [5][6] Group 3: E-commerce and Market Regulation - Sichuan Water Well has taken strict actions against violations of company policies during the 618 promotion, including penalties and termination of partnerships [1][7] - Other companies, such as Wuliangye and Jian Nan Chun, have also raised concerns about counterfeit products being sold through e-commerce platforms, urging consumers to purchase through official channels [8][10] - The industry is increasingly focused on transparency and traceability to combat counterfeit products and ensure consumer trust [11]

Core Insights - The 2025 "618 Shopping Festival" started on May 13 and will last until June 18, marking the longest duration in its history, aimed at stimulating consumer spending [1] - Despite a pessimistic outlook for the liquor market in 2023, data from e-commerce platforms during the 618 period shows strong sales momentum for alcoholic beverages [1][2] - The sales of liquor products on platforms like Tmall and Meituan have seen significant year-on-year growth, with Tmall's core liquor brands increasing by 72% in the first phase of the event [1][2] E-commerce Performance - From May 13 to May 26, Tmall's liquor sales saw a 72% increase compared to the same period last year, with domestic liquor, wine, and yellow wine all achieving double-digit growth [1] - Meituan's flash sales reported a nearly 19-fold increase in liquor sales, with over 50 categories of products, including liquor, experiencing over 100% growth compared to last year [1][2] - Live streaming has significantly boosted liquor sales, with Tmall's liquor live streaming sales increasing by 20% year-on-year, and wine live streaming sales soaring by 108% [1] Pricing Strategies - The competitive pricing during the 618 event has contributed to the strong sales, with notable discounts on premium liquor brands [2][4] - For instance, Moutai 1935 was priced below 800 yuan on various platforms, while Guojiao 1573 was available for as low as 773 yuan per bottle, making them attractive to consumers [2] - Despite the discounts, liquor companies are managing their pricing strategies to avoid disrupting the overall pricing system for distributors [4][5] Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is facing challenges with price inversions, where retail prices are lower than distributor prices, affecting profitability for offline retailers [5][6] - In 2025, liquor companies have adopted a "control inventory and maintain prices" strategy, with several brands issuing stop-sale notices to stabilize prices [5][8] - The offline retail market has not been significantly impacted by the online promotions, as many stores did not engage in similar discounting activities [6][7] Industry Outlook - Major liquor companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, have adjusted their revenue growth targets downward, indicating a cautious outlook for the industry [8] - The ongoing competition from online channels continues to pressure traditional retail margins, as consumers have more options and price comparison capabilities [6][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Kweichow Moutai's Q1 2025 performance shows a slowdown in growth, with revenue of CNY 51.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, slightly exceeding market expectations [3][15] - The net profit for Q1 2025 reached CNY 26.85 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, indicating a stronger profit growth compared to revenue [3][15] - The company has increased the launch of non-standard products, which has contributed to the revenue growth despite the overall slowdown in the traditional Moutai product line [3][15] Group 2 - Moutai liquor achieved revenue of CNY 43.56 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with growth primarily driven by the increased launch of non-standard products [3][18] - The series liquor segment saw a revenue of CNY 7.02 billion, growing by 18.3%, indicating a recovery after two consecutive quarters of decline [4][20] - The company has focused on clearing inventory and restructuring its distribution system for series liquor, leading to improved sales performance during the 2025 Spring Festival [4][20] Group 3 - The direct sales channel's share increased slightly to 45.9% in Q1 2025, reflecting a strategy to alleviate inventory pressure on traditional Moutai products [4][24] - The company is expected to continue increasing the proportion of direct sales to stabilize pricing and enhance profitability in the long term [4][24] - The contract liabilities decreased by 8% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in the company's inventory management efforts [4][26] Group 4 - The gross profit margin slightly declined from 92.7% to 91.8% due to increased sales of series liquor, while the net profit margin reached 52.2% [5][29] - The management expense ratio decreased to 3.7%, the lowest level in three years, showcasing improved operational efficiency [5][29] - The company has increased its marketing expenses for series liquor significantly, indicating a strategic push into the mid-range and mass market segments [4][21]

4月18日，古越龙山官方公众号发布了《致经销商告知函》。该公司表示，为了维护古越龙山青花醉系 列产品价格稳定，增强经销商和消费者的信心，经过公司研究决定：500ml×6木盒十年花雕酒（5A级库 藏）、500ml×6青花醉十二年（壶酒兴邦）、500ml×6新品木盒二十年（5A级库藏）、500ml×5盒三十 年陈花雕酒（千福），这四款产品自通知之日起禁止任何经销商线上销售。 古越龙山还称，目前线上店铺在销售的经销商及其分销商须在5月底前做好上述产品下架工作。该公司 将加强这四款产品线上监管，一经发现查实，将对经销商从严从重处理，取消产品所有政策支持。 智通财经记者 | 武冰聪 智通财经编辑 | 牙韩翔 黄酒"一哥"古越龙山感受到市场压力，主动叫停了高端系列产品的线上销售。 在表达了发展高端化的决心之后，却主动叫停高端产品的线上销售，原因与产品在电商平台的价格倒挂 有关。 据了解，上述几款产品目前售价在每瓶100元到600元之间。以木盒十年产品为例，古越龙山在电商平台 官方旗舰店的价格约为128元/瓶，但在百亿补贴活动后的价格分别为78元/瓶、86.38元/瓶，线上不同渠 道存在较大的价格差异。 上述负责人表示，从 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][27]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a stable performance, with no significant fundamental catalysts. Major liquor companies are implementing inventory control and price stabilization measures, particularly during the traditional off-season post-Spring Festival. Companies like Wuliangye, Jinshiyuan, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are taking actions to maintain prices. Market feedback remains rational and stable, with Jinshiyuan and Fenjiu showing upward momentum and incremental growth [4][6]. - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is at a bottom range, with a general dividend yield exceeding 3%. Compared to other leading sectors, the liquor sector's leading stocks may have a rebound potential. Recommended companies include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others [4][6]. - The consumer goods sector is showing a slight recovery in sales post-Spring Festival, although it remains relatively weak overall. The decline in raw material prices, such as milk and sugar, is beneficial for profit margins. The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for consumer goods, recommending companies like Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, and others [6]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is entering a traditional off-season, with many manufacturers starting to control inventory and stabilize prices. Recent tracking shows stable prices for Moutai and Wuliangye, with some products from Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao also being temporarily halted. The overall liquor market is expected to remain weak in the short term, but macroeconomic policies may provide a catalyst for recovery [6][11]. - The absolute valuation of liquor stocks is at a bottom range, with a dividend yield above 3%. The leading liquor stocks are expected to have rebound potential, with recommendations for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [4][6]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a slight recovery in sales, although it remains under pressure. The report highlights that the sales performance of Zhongju Gaoxin is improving on a month-on-month basis, despite facing year-on-year pressure due to base effects. The decline in raw material prices is favorable for profit margins, and the report maintains a long-term positive outlook for the sector [6][16]. - Recommended companies in the consumer goods sector include Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Haitian Flavoring [6].