在业内人士看来，这场风暴的导火索是市场掀起的"高市交易"——投资者因预期日本内阁将推出远超预 期的财政支出计划，出于对财政可持续性的深度忧虑而大举抛售国债。 全景扫描——收益率曲线全面上移股债汇遭遇"三杀" 日本金融市场近期呈现出罕见的全线下跌态势。11月21日，日本内阁批准了高达21.3万亿日元（1354亿 美元）的经济刺激计划，这一规模庞大的支出方案立即引发了市场对日本财政状况持续恶化的担忧。 整体来看，当前收益率曲线呈现出明显的陡峭化上移，即短期国债收益率上行幅度相对可控，而超长期 国债遭遇持续抛售压力。 法国兴业银行全球策略师Albert Edwards将日本长期债券收益率的攀升评价为"极少被投资者重视的重大 警示信号"。他指出，这一变化预示着市场对日本财政可持续性的信心正在动摇。 新华财经北京11月25日电（王菁）近期，日本债券市场掀起一场"抛售风暴"，各期限债券收益率全线攀 升，接连突破历史高点。其中，10年期日本国债收益率最高触及1.842%，创下2008年全球金融危机以 来的最高水平。超长端收益率涨幅更为惊人，30年期日债收益率一度升至历史峰值。 复旦发展研究院金融研究中心主任孙立坚分析认为， ...

日本市场恐慌 事实上，日本政府正陷入两难抉择。一方面，日本三季度经济出现萎缩，日本政府冒着债务负担加重的 压力推出庞大的经济刺激计划；另一方面，财政扩张叠加市场对日本央行推迟加息的预期，会进一步削 弱日元，而日元贬值又会反过来推高进口商品成本，与日本政府通过补贴来缓解通胀痛苦的做法背道而 驰。 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 受日本政府力推积极的财政政策、主张保持宽松货币政策等因素 的影响，日本连日遭受股债汇"三杀"。 11月21日，据环球时报报道，日本政府正在制定一项规模超过20万亿日元的经济刺激方案。经济刺激计 划震动市场，日本国债收益率已持续多日大幅走高，与其反向变动的债券价格正不断走低，日本国债被 市场抛售。与此同时，日本汇市和股市也同步承压。其中，日元兑美元持续跌破157区间，日经225指数 也跌穿49000点。 出于对日本政府即将推出经济刺激计划的担忧，前一段时间日股的繁荣行情戛然而止，市场转头呈现出 股债汇三重下跌的行情，凸显"高市交易"的脆弱性。 "当前中日经贸的不确定性增强，叠加日本经济在美国关税政策下承压，市场风险情绪上涨。"复旦发展 研究院金融研究中心主任孙立坚对21世纪经济报道记者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant volatility, with rising yields and declining demand, leading to concerns about the sustainability of investments in long-term Japanese government bonds [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After a significant sell-off of Japanese government bonds at the end of last year, investors like Brendan Murphy from Insight Investment saw an opportunity in 30-year bonds, which offered attractive yields near historical highs [2]. - The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to maintain its monetary policy without raising interest rates has contributed to the ongoing pressure on long-term bonds, with yields reaching over 3.2%, erasing previous gains for investors [2][3]. - The global bond market is also affected by Japan's bond market fluctuations, as rising yields in Japan have led to synchronized volatility across global fixed-income markets [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Despite the challenges, some investors remain optimistic about Japanese bonds, with Insight Investment's Murphy still holding his positions, believing in the potential for future gains if inflation concerns ease [2][7]. - However, other investment firms, such as PGIM, view the current situation as a "value trap," where bonds appear cheap but may continue to decline in value [3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Factors - Foreign investment in Japanese long-term bonds has significantly decreased, with net purchases dropping to 479.5 billion yen in July, the lowest level since January [4]. - The aging population in Japan is leading to a structural decline in demand for long-term bonds, as pension funds and insurance companies are becoming hesitant to invest [5][6]. - The BOJ's gradual reduction in bond purchases is further weakening market support, contributing to the downward pressure on bond prices [3][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Some analysts suggest that the BOJ may need to raise interest rates to improve the performance of long-term bonds, with expectations for a potential rate hike not occurring until early 2026 [5]. - There are signs of potential recovery, as the Japanese government has started to reduce long-term bond issuance, which may help alleviate supply-demand imbalances [7]. - Certain investors are beginning to enter the market, betting on a bottoming out of Japanese long-term bonds, with expectations of significant returns if yields decrease [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current policy interest rate at 0.5% this week, with a focus on potential adjustments to its bond purchasing plan [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue reducing its government bond purchases at a pace of 400 billion yen per quarter until March 2026 [1] - After the end of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that government bond yields should be determined by the market [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts that after March 2026, the Bank of Japan may slow the reduction pace to 200 billion yen per quarter and gradually decrease monthly bond purchases to approximately 2.1 trillion yen by March 2027, potentially halting further reductions thereafter [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese 20-year government bond auction experienced its worst results since 2012, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.5 times and tail spreads reaching the highest level since 1987, indicating a significant decline in market demand [1][2] - The yield on long-term Japanese government bonds has risen sharply, with the 10-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds yielding 1.573%, 2.566%, 2.999%, and 3.336% respectively, reflecting increases of approximately 0.28, 0.34, 0.35, and 0.39 percentage points since the beginning of the month [1][2] - Japan's government debt stands at over 230% of GDP, the highest in the world, raising concerns about the country's fiscal health compared to Greece, which has a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 150% [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) introduction of yield curve control (YCC) in 2016 has led to the central bank becoming the largest holder of Japanese government bonds, which has implications for market dynamics and pricing [3][4] - The BOJ's decision to end the negative interest rate policy and begin reducing its bond purchases has contributed to a lack of demand for Japanese bonds, leading to a "buyer strike" in the market [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the current situation in the Japanese bond market may reflect broader global liquidity tightening, with potential spillover effects on U.S. financial markets [5][6]