中国城市的现代化、集群化发展必然出现掉队者，收缩型城市正是暂时落后的代表。从网传的138个收 缩型城市名单来看，其分布范围持续扩大，城市层级也涵盖省会、首府城市至四、五线城市。 人口下降是判定城市是否收缩的最关键指标，一般来说，连续三年城区常住人口下降，就将被纳入收缩 城市行列。 这些城市，也成了收缩型城市？ 提到收缩型城市，人们首先想到的多是鹤岗、七台河等经济告别辉煌、人口流失已久的东北地区城市， 然而，被判定为收缩型城市的，不乏一些赫赫有名的大城、名城。 从哈尔滨、乌鲁木齐到南充、九江、湛江……大小、层级不同的收缩型城市，在面临人口流失、经济放 缓等难题的同时，房地产市场是否还有希望？综合来看，收缩型城市的房产并未贬值，但大多已经透支 了未来的增值潜力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "shrinking cities" in China has gained attention as urbanization enters a new phase, characterized by population decline and economic restructuring, necessitating targeted development strategies and policy recommendations for sustainable urban development [1][48]. Group 1: Definition and Identification of Shrinking Cities - Shrinking cities are defined as urban areas experiencing sustained population loss and structural economic crises, requiring a multi-dimensional understanding [3][6]. - Identification standards for shrinking cities include a continuous decline in urban population over three years, economic growth below the national average, and mismatched urban expansion and population growth [7][10]. Group 2: Characteristics and Distribution of Shrinking Cities - There are 139 identified shrinking cities in China, with significant concentrations in the Northeast, particularly in Heilongjiang, where 12 out of 13 cities are classified as shrinking [10][11]. - Shrinking cities exhibit a paradox of spatial expansion despite population decline, with 93.03% of these cities still expanding their built-up areas [35][36]. Group 3: Causes of Shrinking Cities - Macro factors contributing to shrinking cities include population aging, low birth rates, and regional development imbalances, leading to resource and talent concentration in coastal areas [17][19]. - Micro factors include population outflow, a decline in job opportunities, and a stagnant real estate market, exacerbating the shrinking phenomenon [27][29]. Group 4: Transformation Paths for Shrinking Cities - Strategies for transformation include "smart shrinkage," focusing on quality and efficiency rather than mere expansion, optimizing urban space, and developing new industries [38][39]. - Specific development paths for resource-dependent cities involve leveraging local resources for new industries, while cultural tourism and ecological cities are emerging as viable options for others [40][41]. Group 5: Policy Responses - National policies emphasize the need for "smart shrinkage" strategies, optimizing administrative divisions, and avoiding blind expansion to enhance urban quality and competitiveness [43][44]. - Future policy recommendations include establishing monitoring mechanisms for shrinking cities, implementing differentiated support policies, and promoting regional collaboration for resource sharing [46][47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a small number of cities in China are experiencing factor loss due to issues like single industrial structure, leading to the emergence of "shrinking cities" which may face potential consolidation or merger in the future [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has noted that while there is rich experience in the consolidation of towns, large-scale city mergers are not yet on the horizon, as many county-level cities are still in their developmental phase [1] - The goal is to curb industrial and population loss and create small, beautiful cities with unique advantages that align with modern urban development needs [1] Group 2 - The causes of "shrinking cities" include resource depletion, as seen in regions like Germany's Ruhr area and China's Gansu Yumen, which have suffered from resource exhaustion [3] - Industrial transformation challenges are also a factor, where cities fail to adapt to the demands of industrial upgrades, leading to population decline, as observed in cities like Liverpool and Aershan in China [3] - Remote cities lacking resources or industrial support, particularly in China's northwest, are also experiencing shrinkage, with examples including Gansu Dingxi and Inner Mongolia's Eerguna [3] - The siphoning effect of large cities contributes to population movement from smaller cities to regional centers, with examples like Baltimore near New York and Gaobeidian near Beijing [3]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rolled steel: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and strong [4] - Silver: Volatile and strong [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 boosts raw material sentiment, and iron ore prices are relatively strong. Short - term iron ore fundamentals have limited contradictions and are expected to fluctuate at high levels following finished products. Coal and coke fundamentals are weakening, and the black sector is in a weakening trend. Rolled steel is in a weak fundamental pattern, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. [2] - The market as a whole rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. Gold is expected to be volatile and strong due to various factors such as central bank purchases and market uncertainties. [4] - Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and they are expected to be volatile. Meal prices are also expected to be volatile. Live pig prices are expected to rise slightly next week. [6][7] - Rubber supply is tight, and demand and inventory are favorable, so it is expected to be volatile and strong. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand and cost situations, with most in a wait - and - see or volatile state. [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The "restriction on production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand. The global shipment is slightly down, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure. It is expected to follow finished products and fluctuate at high levels. [2] - **Coal and coke**: Fundamentals are weakening, with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, and demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] - **Rolled steel**: In a weak fundamental pattern, supply remains high, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to be weak. [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment is cooling, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. Demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The market rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rising and some being volatile. [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is down, and the market has a net capital withdrawal. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank purchases are key. With factors such as the US debt problem and market uncertainties, gold and silver are expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but demand improvement is uncertain. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. [6] - **Logs**: Supply pressure is not large, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is uncertain. The inventory is declining, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil varieties is increasing. They are expected to be volatile. [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the export situation is not improved. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. They are expected to be volatile. [6][7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average weight of pigs is decreasing, and the demand for slaughter is increasing. With the start of school, the demand is expected to increase, and prices are expected to rise slightly. [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is tight due to weather conditions, demand is relatively stable, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong. [9] Polyester Sector - **PX**: Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and PX supply - demand turns weak. The price follows oil prices. [9] - **PTA**: Cost support is general, supply decreases, and demand improves. The price follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. [9] - **MEG**: Port inventory is decreasing, supply pressure increases, and it is expected to be in a wide - balance state in the medium - term. The price is supported by low inventory. [9] - **PR**: There is no substantial positive driving force in supply - demand, and it is expected to be range - bound. [9] - **PF**: The supply - demand is weak, but the overnight oil price rise may support the cost. It is expected to be volatile. [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the release of the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Urban Development" by the Central Committee and the State Council, which outlines a roadmap for future urban development in China [2][3] - The document marks a significant shift in urban development strategy, indicating a transition from rapid growth to stable development and from large-scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement [3][4] - The goal of modernizing cities is emphasized, aligning with the broader objective of achieving socialist modernization by 2035, while also focusing on the satisfaction of the people as a key measure of urban quality [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the differentiation in urban development, where some cities will continue to expand while others, particularly in the central and northeastern regions, may face population decline and resource idleness, potentially leading to consolidation or merging [4][5] - The need for cities to maintain reasonable scale and avoid over-expansion is highlighted, along with the importance of tailored responses for shrinking cities based on their future vitality [4][5] - The article points out that the reliance on land finance for urban development is unsustainable, necessitating a shift towards new development drivers, including upgrading traditional industries and optimizing urban structures [6][7] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban renewal as a critical aspect of future urban development, focusing on the revitalization of existing assets and infrastructure to enhance living conditions [8][9] - It discusses the necessity of a differentiated approach to real estate management, considering the varying scales and urbanization levels across different cities [9][10] - The article outlines the principles of zoning, grading, and classification in constructing a modern urban system, recognizing the diverse conditions and needs of different regions and city types [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The future trend indicates a differentiation among cities, with some experiencing factor loss due to issues like single industrial structures, leading to population outflow and idle land resources [1] Group 1: Urban Development Trends - A small number of cities are identified as "shrinking cities" due to challenges such as population loss and idle land [1] - These shrinking cities may face potential consolidation or merging in the future, reflecting international patterns and experiences [1] - Currently, there is no indication of large-scale city mergers or consolidations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Urban Development" marks a strategic shift in China's urban development, emphasizing quality and efficiency over rapid expansion and scale [2][3]. Group 1: Development Trends - The urbanization rate in China has reached 67%, with a notable divergence in city development, where some cities continue to expand while others face population decline and resource idleness [4][7]. - Cities experiencing population loss may face consolidation or merging, while expanding cities must avoid excessive growth to prevent urban issues [7]. Group 2: Energy Transition - The reliance on land finance for urban development is unsustainable, necessitating a shift towards new development drivers, including upgrading traditional industries and optimizing urban spaces [8][9]. - Urban renewal is identified as a critical strategy, focusing on revitalizing existing spaces and improving living conditions through systematic updates [9][10]. Group 3: Layout Optimization - The construction of a modern urban system should adhere to principles of zoning, grading, and classification, recognizing the diverse conditions across different regions of China [13][14]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of urban clusters and county-level cities, which play a vital role in connecting urban and rural areas and supporting localized urbanization [14].