2、产业变迁：一是城市无法适应产业转型升级的要求，如英国港口城市利物浦、美国的休斯顿、以及 我国的鞍山；二是产业升级致使污染大、能耗大的企业迁出，如绍兴柯桥；三是城市由轻工业向重工业 转变，对劳动力 素质要求提高，吸纳就业人口减少，如成渝城市群的乐山、自贡。 赛迪智库曾撰文就"收缩型城市"的成因做出分析，具体包括： 1、资源枯竭：典型如德国的"煤城"鲁尔区、美国"钢城"匹茨堡、法国"煤钢城"洛林、我国石油资源丰 富的甘肃玉门、林木资源富足的黑龙江伊春都因资源枯竭而收缩。 【环球网财经综合报道】9月2日，国家发改委城市和小城镇改革发展中心主任高国力公开表示，少部分 城市由于产业结构单一等问题，出现了要素流失，这类城市也可以称之为"收缩型城市"。从城市发展趋 势来看，今后这类城市会面临撤并或整合的可能。 高国力还提到，过去，我国在乡镇撤并方面已经积累了丰富经验，但目前总体上还没有到城市大规模撤 并的阶段。国内不少县级市才设立二三十年，还处于培育发展过程中。如果能够通过遏制产业和人口流 失的举措，打造小而美具有一定特色和优势的中小城市，同样是符合现代化城市发展需要的。 3、偏远城市：位置偏远、环境不宜居的城市，位置 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rolled steel: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and strong [4] - Silver: Volatile and strong [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 boosts raw material sentiment, and iron ore prices are relatively strong. Short - term iron ore fundamentals have limited contradictions and are expected to fluctuate at high levels following finished products. Coal and coke fundamentals are weakening, and the black sector is in a weakening trend. Rolled steel is in a weak fundamental pattern, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. [2] - The market as a whole rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. Gold is expected to be volatile and strong due to various factors such as central bank purchases and market uncertainties. [4] - Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and they are expected to be volatile. Meal prices are also expected to be volatile. Live pig prices are expected to rise slightly next week. [6][7] - Rubber supply is tight, and demand and inventory are favorable, so it is expected to be volatile and strong. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand and cost situations, with most in a wait - and - see or volatile state. [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The "restriction on production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand. The global shipment is slightly down, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure. It is expected to follow finished products and fluctuate at high levels. [2] - **Coal and coke**: Fundamentals are weakening, with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, and demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] - **Rolled steel**: In a weak fundamental pattern, supply remains high, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to be weak. [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment is cooling, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. Demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The market rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rising and some being volatile. [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is down, and the market has a net capital withdrawal. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank purchases are key. With factors such as the US debt problem and market uncertainties, gold and silver are expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but demand improvement is uncertain. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. [6] - **Logs**: Supply pressure is not large, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is uncertain. The inventory is declining, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil varieties is increasing. They are expected to be volatile. [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the export situation is not improved. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. They are expected to be volatile. [6][7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average weight of pigs is decreasing, and the demand for slaughter is increasing. With the start of school, the demand is expected to increase, and prices are expected to rise slightly. [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is tight due to weather conditions, demand is relatively stable, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong. [9] Polyester Sector - **PX**: Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and PX supply - demand turns weak. The price follows oil prices. [9] - **PTA**: Cost support is general, supply decreases, and demand improves. The price follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. [9] - **MEG**: Port inventory is decreasing, supply pressure increases, and it is expected to be in a wide - balance state in the medium - term. The price is supported by low inventory. [9] - **PR**: There is no substantial positive driving force in supply - demand, and it is expected to be range - bound. [9] - **PF**: The supply - demand is weak, but the overnight oil price rise may support the cost. It is expected to be volatile. [9]

每经记者 张怀水 每经编辑 陈星 8月28日，《中共中央 国务院关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》（以下简称《意见》）对外公布，擘画了未来城市发展的路线图。 这也是今年7月中旬中央城市工作会议召开后，首份关于城市发展的顶层设计文件。 1962年、1963年、1978年、2015年，全国性的城市工作会议此前四度召开。时隔十年再度召开的中央城市工作会议，引发业界高度 关注。当土地财政不可持续，城市发展动能如何转换？一边是大城市持续扩张，另一边是小城市不断收缩，人口流失、土地闲置的城市 要不要撤并？过去数十年各地建设了大量存量房产，如何盘活处置？下一步大规模城市更新将如何推进？ 针对上述热点问题，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）近日对国家发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发展中心主任高国力进行了 独家专访。高国力长期从事区域经济和城镇化研究，并参与了本次中央城市工作会议文件的起草工作。 发展趋势：人口流失的城市面临撤并可能，扩张型城市不能过度膨胀 NBD：8月28日，《意见》对外公布。而今年召开的中央城市工作会议也是时隔十年再次召开。相较于上次，本次会议最大的亮点 和区别分别是什么？ 从城市发展趋势来看，人口流失、资金外 ...

每经讯近日，国家发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发展中心主任高国力接受《每日经济新闻》记者专访时 表示，从未来趋势看，城市仍然会存在分化现象。少部分城市由于产业结构单一等问题，出现了要素流 失。具体表现在人口外流、土地资源闲置等，这类城市也可以称之为"收缩型城市"。从城市发展趋势来 看，人口流失、资金外流、土地闲置的这一类城市，今后也会面临撤并或整合的可能。这是国际规律和 经验，我们要尊重规律、顺势而为、因势利导。"但目前总体上还没有到城市大规模撤并的阶段。"他 说。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

8月28日，《中共中央国务院关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》（以下简称《意见》）对外公布，擘画了未来城市发 展的路线图。这也是今年7月中旬中央城市工作会议召开后，首份关于城市发展的顶层设计文件。 1962年、1963年、1978年、2015年，全国性的城市工作会议此前四度召开。时隔十年再度召开的中央城市工作会 议，引发业界高度关注。当土地财政不可持续，城市发展动能如何转换？一边是大城市持续扩张，另一边是小城市 不断收缩，人口流失、土地闲置的城市要不要撤并？过去数十年各地建设了大量存量房产，如何盘活处置？下一步 大规模城市更新将如何推进？ 针对上述热点问题，《每日经济新闻》（以下简称NBD）记者近日对国家发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发展中心主 任高国力进行了独家专访。高国力长期从事区域经济和城镇化研究，并参与了本次中央城市工作会议文件的起草工 作。 1 发展趋势：人口流失的城市面临撤并可能，扩张型城市不能过度膨胀 NBD：8月28日，《意见》对外公布。而今年召开的中央城市工作会议也是时隔十年的再次召开。相较于上次，本次 会议最大的亮点和区别分别是什么？ 我国城镇化率已经达到67% 高国力：第一个亮点是，明确了今后一 ...