Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term shock adjustment of stock indices is mainly affected by intensified overseas disturbances and adjustments in some high - position sectors. As unfavorable factors such as trade frictions gradually ease, stock indices are expected to return to the upward channel. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited. It is recommended to take a long - term long position [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - Interest rate products' closing prices and changes: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a 0.52bp increase; DR007 at 1.41 with a 1.57bp decrease; GC001 at 1.40 with a 5.50bp decrease; GC007 at 1.57 with a 6.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.48 with a 0.25bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.62 with a 0.82bp increase; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85 with a 0.50bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.02 with a 1.00bp increase [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 8672 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations in the open market, with 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net investment (including treasury cash) of 1981 billion yuan [4] - This week, 8672 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1890 billion, 1595 billion, 1382 billion, 2125 billion, and 1680 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Also, 7000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase will mature on Wednesday [5] Stock Market - Stock index closing prices and changes: CSI 300 closed at 4661 with a 1.18% increase; SSE 50 at 3046 with a 0.62% increase; CSI 500 at 7259 with a 1.62% increase; CSI 1000 at 7419 with a 1.52% increase. Futures closing prices and changes: IF current - month contract at 4648 with a 1.2% increase; IH current - month contract at 3048 with a 0.8% increase; IC current - month contract at 7212 with a 1.7% increase; IM current - month contract at 7369 with a 1.7% increase [7] - Futures trading volume and position changes: IF trading volume was 116181 with a 9.4% decrease, and position was 255413 with a 3.5% decrease; IH trading volume was 58979 with a 2.2% decrease, and position was 95329 with a 1.4% increase; IC trading volume was 137728 with a 5.1% decrease, and position was 243604 with a 4.2% decrease; IM trading volume was 224453 with a 13.8% decrease, and position was 349089 with a 7.0% decrease [7] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4660.7; SSE 50 rose 2.63% to 3045.8; CSI 500 rose 3.46% to 7258.5; CSI 1000 rose 3.25% to 7419.2. Shenwan primary industry indices generally rose, with communication (11.5%), electronics (8.5%), power equipment (4.9%), machinery and equipment (4.7%), and media (4.3%) leading the gains, while only agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 1.4%) and food and beverage (- 0.9%) declined. The daily trading volume of A - shares last week was 15749 billion, 17043 billion, 15180 billion, 15106 billion, and 17592 billion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 3494.9 billion yuan compared with the previous week [7] Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 3.70%, 3.75%, 3.06%, and 3.10% respectively; IH premium rates are - 1.19%, - 0.62%, - 0.35%, and - 0.30% respectively; IC premium rates are 9.04%, 9.19%, 9.20% respectively; IM premium rates are 9.47%, 11.05%, 11.58%, and 11.66% respectively. The values in parentheses are annualized premium and discount rates (green for premium, red for discount) [9]

| 公询 各资格:证监许可【 | ICTERIA | 日度 策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 往后看,随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减, | | | | 在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入震荡整固阶段。策略 | 最新 | 股指谨慎观望为主,关注宏观增量信号。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 宏观金融 | 国 | 空间。 | | | | | 金价短期或再度进入震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 農汤 | 用守 | 短期高位区间震荡，但中期上方空间有限。 | 震荡 | 日銀 | - Fel | | 海外铜矿供应扰动提振铜价,但近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市 | 看空 | 场风险偏好, 叠加铜下游需求有所转弱,铜价上行空间变限,短 | 期谨防回落风险。 | | | | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | 農汤 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Copper, Polycrystalline Silicon, Pure Lithium, Jiao Coal, Coke, BR Rubber, Pure Benzene, LPG - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Japanese Yen, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Urea, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's reaction to tariff impacts and policy support is waning, and in the absence of new catalysts, there are short - term risks of market fluctuations and adjustments [1]. - Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Various factors such as weak macro data, changes in supply and demand, and policy uncertainties are affecting the prices of different commodities, with most commodities expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: With the fading impact of tariffs and policy support, and the current rebound reaching the upper limit of the range, there is a short - term risk of oscillating adjustment in the absence of new catalysts [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - **Gold**: The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - **Japanese Yen**: It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, but the medium - term upward space is limited [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak macro data and reduced downstream demand limit the upward space of copper prices, with a short - term risk of decline [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Low aluminum inventories support prices, but the upward space is limited as prices rise. For alumina, although the price is rising due to mine disturbances, the improvement in production profits may lead to复产, restricting the upward space [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Global trade frictions and policy uncertainties cause prices to oscillate in the short - term. Long - term, the supply of primary nickel is excessive, and stainless steel has supply pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Before the resumption of production at low - grade mines, the fundamentals of tin prices are strongly supported [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply remains high, it has entered a low - valuation range, and demand remains low [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Downstream production schedules are rapidly decreasing, futures premiums over spot prices, and warehouse receipts are increasing [1]. - **Pure Lithium**: Mine prices are continuously falling without signs of production cuts, and downstream buyers are not active [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The market is in a transition period from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns, and no clear upward price drivers [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that iron - water production has reached its peak, but there are no new supply - side developments, and attention should be paid to steel pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon has short - term supply - demand balance with high warehouse - receipt pressure; ferrosilicon's cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area have tightened supply - demand [1]. Building Materials - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about declining demand. Soda ash has good immediate demand due to many maintenance activities in May, but faces medium - term supply overcapacity and price pressure [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil is affected by factors such as Indonesian weather and US biodiesel proposals; soybean oil is affected by Argentine weather with limited impact; rapeseed oil is affected by potential tariff increases, but the impact has been mostly priced in [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and long - term macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - cane ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation in the medium - term, with short - term factors limiting the upward space of the futures price. Soybeans face pressure from concentrated arrivals and fast sowing progress, and low - valuation buying is recommended [1]. - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp port inventories are rising, with some improvement in white - cardboard demand. Logs have a pattern of loose supply and weak demand, and both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Hogs**: With the continuous restoration of hog inventories and increasing slaughter weights, the futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient supply, and the futures price is expected to remain stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, and Asphalt**: Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and OPEC+ production - increase news. Asphalt is affected by cost drag, inventory changes, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **Shanghai Rubber and BR Rubber**: Shanghai rubber is affected by factors such as rainfall and storage - purchase rumors. BR rubber's short - term upward sentiment has slowed, and there is a risk of long - term decline [1]. - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, and Short Fiber**: PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, ethylene glycol is in a de - stocking phase, and short - fiber costs are closely related to PTA [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The speculative demand for pure benzene has weakened, and styrene plants have increased production and are actively selling [1]. - **Urea and Methanol**: Urea demand is weak, and methanol is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention to factors such as plant maintenance and imports [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: PE's seasonal demand is weakening, PP's production has recovered, and PVC has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by macro factors [1]. - **Caustic Soda and LPG**: Caustic soda is affected by the alumina market, and LPG is expected to decline due to factors such as tariff relaxation and the off - season [1]. Others - The market has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. For futures, it is recommended to try long - positions in the peak - season contracts with light positions and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Hot Rolled Coil, Manganese Ore, Coke, BR Rubber, Styrene, Urea, LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Stock Index, Bond Futures, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, PTA, Short Fiber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market's reaction to tariff shocks and policy support is waning. The stock index's rebound has reached the upper limit of the range, and there is a risk of short - term shock adjustment. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Safe - haven demand drives up the price of gold, and its long - term upward logic remains solid. Silver follows gold but has limited medium - term upside. Weak macro data and downstream demand suppress copper prices in the short term. Aluminum's low inventory provides support, but the upside is limited [1]. - The situation in Guinea affects alumina prices, but the improvement in production profit may lead to复产 and limit the upside. Nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by supply, demand, and policy factors, showing short - term sideways movement [1]. - Before the resumption of production in Wa State, tin prices have strong fundamental support. Industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and is in a low - valuation range. Polysilicon has few registered warehouse receipts and a low willingness to register due to futures discounting spot [1]. - Lithium carbonate supply has not further shrunk, inventory is accumulating, and downstream procurement is based on rigid demand. Rebar and hot - rolled coil have insufficient price rebound drivers due to cost loosening and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. - Iron ore has a peak iron - making water expectation, and manganese ore is expected to decline due to oversupply. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand turns tight due to production cuts. Glass and soda ash face supply - demand challenges, with glass affected by the rainy season and soda ash facing medium - term oversupply [1]. - Coking coal and coke are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and there are opportunities for positive spreads and selling hedging. Palm oil, rapeseed oil, and cotton are affected by various factors such as weather, policy, and season, showing sideways or slightly weak trends [1]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and wheat has a tight annual supply - demand expectation. Soybean meal is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pulp and logs have no obvious upward momentum [1]. - In the livestock market, the pig inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot. Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as the Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and financial market risk preference [1]. - Natural rubber is affected by rainfall and storage rumors. BR rubber is expected to decline in the short and long term. PTA's supply - demand situation has changed, and ethylene glycol is in a de - stocking stage [1]. - Styrene and urea face weak demand. Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policy, showing sideways or slightly strong trends. LPG is expected to move sideways or decline in the short term [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The rebound has reached the upper limit of the range, and there is a risk of short - term shock adjustment due to the lack of incremental catalysts [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - **Gold**: Safe - haven demand drives up the price, and the long - term upward logic is solid [1]. - **Silver**: Follows gold, but has limited medium - term upside [1]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Weak macro data and downstream demand lead to short - term weak operation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory provides support, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to move sideways [1]. - **Alumina**: The situation in Guinea drives up the price, but production profit improvement may lead to复产 and limit the upside [1]. - **Nickel**: Affected by supply, demand, and policy, it shows short - term sideways movement, and there is a long - term surplus pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by supply, demand, and trade factors, it shows short - term sideways movement, and there is long - term supply pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Before the resumption of production in Wa State, it has strong fundamental support [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Strong supply, weak demand, and in a low - valuation range [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Few registered warehouse receipts and low willingness to register due to futures discounting spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory is accumulating, and downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [1]. Black Metals Sector - **Rebar**: Insufficient price rebound drivers due to cost loosening and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Bearish due to potential export weakness, cost loosening, and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a peak iron - making water expectation, and the supply side has no new stories for now [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: Expected to decline due to oversupply and heavy warehouse receipt pressure [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply - demand turns tight due to production cuts despite cost drag [1]. - **Glass**: Affected by the rainy season, the demand may weaken, and the price moves sideways [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Facing medium - term oversupply, the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In a relatively oversupplied situation, there are opportunities for positive spreads and selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production may be affected by the oil price [1]. - **Wheat**: Affected by new wheat listing and policy grain release, it is expected to move sideways, and a long - at - low strategy is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to move sideways in the short term due to the lack of obvious positive drivers [1]. - **Pulp**: Port inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to move sideways [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and the futures price is undervalued, so it is expected to move sideways [1]. - **Pig**: The inventory is recovering, the futures price is at a discount to the spot, and the futures price is stable [1]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by the Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and financial market risk preference [1]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors, it is expected to move sideways [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Affected by rainfall and storage rumors, and a long - short spread strategy can be considered [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Expected to decline in the short and long term [1]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand situation has changed, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In a de - stocking stage, and the spot market change is not obvious [1]. - **Styrene**: Weak demand leads to a decline in price [1]. - **Urea**: Lack of continuous upward momentum due to weak demand [1]. - **Methanol**: Affected by production, import, and macro factors, it is expected to move sideways at a low level [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Affected by production, demand, and policy, showing sideways or slightly strong trends [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term spot is strong, and the subsequent trend depends on the alumina market [1]. - **LPG**: Expected to move sideways or decline in the short term due to tariff, demand, and supply factors [1]. Other Sector - **Freight Index**: A long - at - low strategy can be considered for the peak - season contract, and spread trading opportunities can be focused on [1].

| I C E H Ho | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博策略参 | | | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | 行业板块 趋势研判 品种 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减,加上当前 | | 股指 震荡 | | 反弹已至区间上沿,在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入 | | | | 震荡整固阶段,策略上、短线多单考虑冲高止盈, 警惕调整风险 | | 宏观金融 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 国债 | | 空间。 | | 賣金 農汤 | | 多空交织，短期金价或盘整震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | 白银 震荡 | C B | 跟随黄金宽幅震荡, 但中期上方空间有限。 | | 看空 第四 | | 近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市场风险偏好,叠加铜下游需求有 | | | | 所转弱,铜价短期偏弱运行。 | | 農汤 | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | | | | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | 氢化 ...